Micro 276 Peek a Boo! Mafia GAME OVER

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Lame.
VOTE: Wisdom

[EspeciallyTheLies]

lol i have no idea! but i don't think so.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I think so, but I was thinking in terms of how the probabilities were created in the first place, wouldn't everyone have the same probability?

Mine was [redacted] chance town.

p-edit: @mod, Would this actually be against your rule?

If it is, what about saying the highest factor of 10 that is below your percentage? Mine would be 70.

As far as revealing the possible partner, I'd rather wait until I learn my alignment for certain.

p-edit: And the rule about quoting the mod. Does a single word count...?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Yeah.

We're talking about the alignment PM.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

That too, but that's what I'm saying.

In a 7-2 setup, the probably that everyone has to be town is, essentially, exactly the same. 7/9 chance.

Eh. 7/9 = 78% which is not what I got.

p-edit: oh ok. Mine was 73%

If it was random, what does that even mean? Does it have any bearing at all then?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

nvm. I'm dumb.

Every player is given a randomized percent. That will be the likelihood that they are town.

The players are then randomized. A number between 1 and 100 is then privately drawn for each player and if that number falls in between 1 and their Town Percentage, then they are town. The first two numbers that fall outside of the town percentages are scum. If necessary, the numbers will be rerolled.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I just did. I mean I read it before but I didn't quite understand it.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Ok, so using mine. I was randomly assigned 73%. Then randomly assigned a number between 1 and 100. If the number I received was below 73, I'm town, and if it was above 73, I'm scum, if I was one of the first two to fall above my 73. Right?

p-edit: Seems to be, yes.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

But, a higher number gives a higher chance, I guess, of being town.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

So I'd still want to know everyone's percentages.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

OH! Another thought. And sorry for spamming. But, the name we got, I think that person may have the lowest percentage.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Well, I would think the person with the lowest percentage would then have the name of the person with the next lowest percentage. Do you have another idea?

p-edit: No. I didn't ask. Did you? (Mr. "Inspect Myself" )

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I asked if I could submit night actions and have them be accepted if they were valid to my assigned role.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

73 and uctriton00

Jingle i agree. Games with QTs are more fun.

What is your number/partner?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I actually kind of like the idea of lynching Who/Jingle for their low ass numbers.

p-edit:

Jingle you are so cute. But that vote is dumb. Jiffy doesn't know what he is, which means he will likely assume he is town, which means he will be a good one to sheep, which means I won't be lynching him.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Oh? I thought who had 34? If you had 34 then jingle isn't dumb.

How do you plan to play this game pre-role PM, Jiffy?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Nothing is a joke in this game. I take it vry srsly.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Why?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Jiffy got my name. If anything, I'm Jiffy's partner and we should uberbus him.

5 to lynch?

VOTE: Jiffy

L-2.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Oh gee thanks. I love being a consolation prize.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

To be especially honest

Of the playerlist
Natirasha
uctriton00
Ganondorf

These are the people I want to lynch right now, because I don't know them, except for Nat, and I can't read any of them, so they are useless to me.

VOTE: Ganondorf

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I kinda wanna keep Jiffy around. He's far from useless to me.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Yeah so let's lynch the evil desert king, mk

[EspeciallyTheLies]

No dude. He tried to take over the lesbian feminist ninjas and make them his slaves. And then he stole Zelda.

What's wrong with you. Stop sympathizing with the enemy.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

He also killed the king and did other bad stuff.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Stop making excuses and vote ganondorf.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Wisdom because I want super powers and the sooner we get to day 3 the sooner i can read my shit because thats when i've decided to read mine. Also getting his alignment will give me poe on others and i dont know ganondorf so i'd rather get rid of him sooner than later.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Om i dont care. Jiffy isnt getting lynched today. I can use his skillz.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Close to deadline???? You fuckers better not make me wait that long. Day 1 in this setup should be over quickly. We are going to have next to no info!

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I plan to get a clue by submitting every night action i can think of. So. Dont you dare make mr wait 2 weeks to do that.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Stump

eh wat?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I know what it is but why did you post it

[EspeciallyTheLies]

The way I see it we can take two approaches to today's play. Lynch people with low town probabilities or lynch people who are difficult to read/low expected value later.

The latter is what I'm doing until I figure more out from night action results/lack of results and flips.

The former is what I'll be using to determine my night actions.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Okay, but we can at least wait for everyone to show up.

Yeah that's fine.

I will be keep notes and I expect everyone to at least contribute their number and their partner. I would prefer not to end the day until I have them all.

So far I have:
ETL: 73, uctriton00

Who: 84,

Majiffy: 34, ETL
Wisdom: 72, Who
Jingle: 43, Wisdom
Om: 99, Majiffy

Uctriton00: posted but no #/partner
Nat:
Ganon:

Bolded, clearly, need to get their act together.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Ok. So, no duplicates, perhaps "significant" just means "not already noted as a possible partner"

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Awwe

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Om!

Rate the playerlist in order from most useful to you to least.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Actually same for everyone.

DO IT.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Dont be lame. This is supposed to be based on your experience with the player and nothing else.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Oh dear lord.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Because you were unknown.

But now because you didn't read the thread.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Vote, dolan.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Where the hell was p-edit on that one.

Nat thats all nice and logical but in terms of use to either faction...

Jiffy, you vs wake?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I mean, no offense to wake but i'd rather have you and jiffy.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I can't believe a word that Wake says ever.

Jingle, I'm lynching today based on use to me. That's the only thing I have that can give me any constructive direction today, and will keep people around that I want around who can still be helpful in later days. Tonight, I plan to go wild and throw a bunch of actions into a PM and see what falls out. I am hoping other people will do the same thing, and maybe tomorrow we will have some results to talk about without having to read our role PMs.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You don't get results in a role PM. You get results in a results PM.

But not just results. Protective roles too, since I'm sure people be trying to shoot people.

Actually, that brings up an interesting question, regarding factional kills, since there's 2 mafia. Are we even going to see one since the faction can't speak with each other to decide on a single target? And furthermore, how reliable would blocking type roles be if there isn't one, as far as determining what happened?

p-edit: Two weeks to talk about....... what? We have even less information than we normally would in a normal game. The scum don't even know who they are. Exactly what are you expecting to gain from today more than what we already have, which is the percentages and the possible partners? Our info is going to come from night actions and your lynch.

p-edit 2: I don't understand your lynch order. How does me saying that I can't trust Wake make me a liar?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

First of all, Jingle, he has a notorious reputation site-wide for making strange claims and being a wild player. He's not someone I want around come Day 3/4. Of the playerlist, he's the last. So, why do you want to lynch me second when I know about as much as my alignment and role as you do?

Secondly, Wake, are you seriously trying to pull that shit? Bad town play, are you fucking kidding me?

I want people around that give me confidence in their reads. Wake, you do not do that. I do not trust you to have better reads than the other people on the list. It's really as simple as that. I'm also not the one who said your role was useless, but you are certainly no "PR".

And last, "what happened during Saturday so far".... um... all the possible information that we can have without reading the role PMs has been shared.

Do I want more information? Hell yes. Am I going to get it by talking to people who have no more information than I do? Hell no.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Lynching people based on who is more trustworthy, IN THIS GAME, TODAY, is the best possible strategy there is. Absofuckinglutely.

And

even more than that

, the fact that you read your role PM and are now trying to protect yourself by OMGUSing me is fucking hilarious and very telling. I don't give a shit about your "PR". You are useless to me and I'm going to agree with Jingle and say, yes, your claimed role is fucking useless.

Lynching anyone else risks hitting a real PR. This is the best possible choice for today.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Whether it's fake or not is the least of the issue. By reading his role PM, he's pretty much sealed the deal on his lynch because we KNOW what he says he is. We know he hasn't said he's a vig or a jk or a cop or anything like that. So lynching him keeps us in a good position.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

SSK, you sure Scum don't know they're Scum yet?

I think one of them does.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

My attitude and immaturity? Jeez.... I was just explaining why I thought it was best to lynch him and he replaces out?

Sorry Wake. There wasn't any ill will intended.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I just asked the mod to clarify, as "No Result" indicates an action was taken and blocked, according to Natural Action Resolution. If the action was actually invalid, then no response would have been more appropriate.

What were your actions?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You got no response?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

That is my issue.

I also received "No Result", which implies that my action was valid, and was taken, but was blocked.

Now, I want to know what everyone did and who they targeted. Somebody tried to kill Who last night, and was successful. Since he was, in fact, a vig, and I doubt we have more than one since he wasn't an off-night vig, I think we have someone who now knows they are scum. Or, perhaps someone who knew and acted accordingly.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

*sigh*

[EspeciallyTheLies]

That is so not the way it should be.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Sorry MafiaSSK <3 I'm not criticizing your modding. I'm just frustrated.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Haha I did an investigate too, on Wisdom

Me too.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I would be willing to lynch Om or Nat today.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Because he read his role PM.

Who died last night for one of the following reasons:
Someone suspected they were scum, for whatever reason, and tried to kill someone, and succeeded, thus not needing to get "No Result" (Nat).

OR

Someone read their role PM, learned they were in fact scum, and acted accordingly (Om was the only one who has other than Wake).

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You think the 99% was a lie then?

I thought it was when he said it but that was just gut at the time so I left it alone.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Bah, I was looking forward to this game.

Okay, I JUST got my results role PM. He just mod error'd. No results.

Mod errors need to be confirmed by the mod.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Ninja! <3

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Ok then. Om needs to claim.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

MafiaSSK probably hates me XD

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Ugh!

When are the bonuses applied?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Well I'm not any kind of investigative role.

Such poop. I really wanted to get wisdom sorted early.

Wisdom go read your pm. <3

L8 dit- oh yeah good point.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Ok so then... that makes sense i guess. I wish i knew what he did.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Edit: I had a bunch written and then realized you made sense and what I said didn't make sense.

I still wanna lynch Om then, because he could be the scum neighbor and I'm fine with that.

P-edit: I considered using Watch myself. I don't find this to be odd.

PE2: lemme post

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Player	% chance for town	Possible partner	Action	Claim?
Majiffy	34%	ETL	N1: Watch Om (No Result)	None yet
Nat	35%	Jingle	N1: Investigate Jingle (No Result)	None yet
Jingle	43%	Wisdom	N1: Investigate Wisdom (No Result)	None yet
Wake	49%	Om	Lynched D1: Town Miller	Town Miller
Wisdom	72%	Who	N1: Investigate Natirasha (No result)	None yet
ETL	73%	uctriton00	N1: Investigate Wisdom (No result)	None yet.
Who	84%	Wake	Died N1: Town Vig	N/A
uctriton00	85%	Nat	N1: Investigate Wisdom (No result)	None yet
Om	99%	Majiffy	N1: No action?	Town Neighbor

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Wisdom I don't agree with your vote.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Nor yours Jiffy.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Yes. Where are you getting jiffy and uc in there from?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

VOTE: Om

I believe he is a neighbor. I don't believe he is town.

p-edit: lol... Om votes for me? That's pretty funny actually.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Majiffy because he weirdly chose to watch when we knew there's a Miller.

I don't get why this is weird. Can you explain why you think it's weird?

uctriton because among those who investigated, he looks the most fake.

This is more reasonable an explanation. But then why are you voting Jiffy?

Because he wanted to know who his partner was for sure after we determined that the possible partners may as well be gibberish.

p-edit: Okay?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Yeah. I'm not concerned with the neighbor part. I'm concerned with the timing of his PM reading. And looking at the chart, Who had the highest number after the number he claimed, right? So why wouldn't scum go after the 99%? (Because scum claimed the 99%)

p-edit: You're saying the existence of a miller makes using Watch as opposed to Investigate

less reasonable

? I think it would be the other way around. We never agreed on what we were going to do. I myself had considered using watch or track and decided I would get more definite information from an investigation, but I don't find his choice to be damning in the least.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Didn't someone suggest we all started as millers or something until D2?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I hope you realise Jingle trying to kill me because they thought my 99% was weird was exactly the thing I was trying to make less damaging by reading my PM.

I don't exactly understand what you are trying to say here. Can you please clarify?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Because Jingle said he went after you because if he was scum, that's who he'd go after. The one with the highest %.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Nat that's kind of my point. Watcher makes no difference than cop, so I don't understand Wisdom's logic in that Jiffy's choice of watcher makes him scum.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I mean... even Jiffy doesn't know and I'm pretty sure most of us are just assuming we are town.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Ah ok. I suppose that makes sense. But now that you have read it, you're the only one claiming no action because of it, and we have a town death.

Somebody killed Who. I think it was you.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

OH now I understand what you're saying, wisdom. Why don't you say these things plainly in the first place. You know I take a minute to grasp shit.

I still don't think it's suspect; just thoughtless.

p-edit: Om you are my biggest lead at the moment. It is possible you are a scum neighbor; I cannot discard that just because you say so.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You wanna lynch uc because his post sounded fake?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Wisdom.... he was the first to post after the kill was posted.... and he posted everything. If anything, that means he is telling the truth.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I don't think it's uc. Where did you come up with the decision that the scum is in the investigators?

p-edit: because it could apply to voyeur, gunsmith, and several other roles.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Because there was a miller, maybe?

pedit: ETL, I already explained it. Why do you do this?

BECAUSE I AM SLOW. Just let me be slow. Going fast just confuses me.

The only thing that stops me from suspecting Majiffy is that I don't think scum would be so blatant in going against the flow. The lying one is most likely in the ones who claimed using "Investigate".

Oh ok. I guess that's a good place to start.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

With that logic I'd suspect it's someone who said something after me

"oh the first person said the word investigate, so I'll blend in and say investigate as well so as to blend in with everyone".

I agree.

If it is in the investigators, it's between Wisdom and Nat.

Nat likes to shoot things.

I like my Om vote for now though.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Oh right.

It could also be you. It could be Om. It could be Jiffy.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Wisdom I really don't think it's triton.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Why don't you want to vote om with me?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Wissyyyyyy I don't agree with it! It's a fine place to start but don't make the mistake of taking it as fact.

I want to lynch om!

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Look, I know I didn't shoot anyone last night.
Per the mod error, nat didn't shoot anyone last night.
Given uc's quick night action disclosure, I don't believe he shot anyone last night.

That leaves you, Wis. Do you still think "scum is in the investigators" is a good theory? I don't, unless you shot someone last night and you are the liar.

p-edit: you said he is lying about his no result.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Player	% chance for town	Possible partner	Action	Claim?
Majiffy	34%	ETL	N1: Watch Om (No Result)	None yet
Nat	35%	Jingle	N1: Investigate Jingle (No Result)	None yet
Jingle	43%	Wisdom	N1: Kill Om (no result)	None yet
Wake	49%	Om	Lynched D1: Town Miller	Town Miller
Wisdom	72%	Who	N1: Investigate Natirasha (No result)	None yet
ETL	73%	uctriton00	N1: Investigate Wisdom (No result)	None yet.
Who	84%	Wake	Died N1: Town Vig	N/A
uctriton00	85%	Nat	N1: Investigate Wisdom (No result)	None yet
Om	99%	Majiffy	N1: No action?	Town Neighbor

[EspeciallyTheLies]

It's in Jiffy (I don't think so), Wisdom (maybe), Om (I think so). Outside option of Jingle if Jingle lied, but I don't think he did.

The one who shot, assuming it is not Om, now knows they are a killing role.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I'd be willing to lynch Om or Wisdom. And no one else today.

P-EDIT BECAUSE I DON'T THINK HE IS LYING. LINK WHEN YOU DO POST NUMBER.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Given uc's quick night action disclosure, I don't believe he shot anyone last night.

I don't understand this. Why wouldn't scum come in and post "hey guys I got "no result""?

Because I believe they would wait to see what other people did/said first.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Edits have been sent out.
Results have been sent out.
Who,

Town One Shot Vigilante

was killed Night One.

On to Day 2!

I got no result when I tried to do a night action

^^ First two posts of the day.

So.... no? He didn't?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

He waited before claiming what action he took....

as did I

but you are not pushing me?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Wisdom, I'm not supporting a uc lynch today. That's really my final say on it. Find someone else to sheep you.

I'm voting Om. I think it's a good vote.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Then what is the point? Why is he scummy?

You keep talking about how he waited to claim he investigated and that's why you are voting him and now you are saying that waiting to claim isn't scummy, so which is it Wis?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Seriously now, ETL? That's why I'm voting him?

UGH. WISDOM.

Why are you voting him then?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Oh, so it has nothing to do with anything uc has said in anyway, it is simply PoE?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Based on the assumption that the shooter is in the investigators (which I do not really agree with)?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

If you agreed with it though, would you see uctriton being scum?

No, I would see you as scum.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Wisdom is always a good one to target. It's why I targeted him. He can be hard to read. And confusing. And paranoia-inducing.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Because his posts feel genuine to me. I believe his first posts of the day. I believe his claims. I also believe that based on his posts, had he been the shooter, he would have said something else or waited longer.

He also just seems to be typing whatever the fuck comes to his head.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Call it gut, and I know that's not possible to convince you of, but my gut is pretty good.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You're a stinker is what you are Wisdom.

My gut is damn good. The problem is I don't always listen to it.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Stop speaking to ETL about me in the third person, please. I feel like I'm talking to you and you're ignoring me and are talking to everyone else.

Whoooa.

Nice observation.

I need to think. I'll be back.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

lol... wisdom! I'm not being stubborn. I am just considering the evidence.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Much stubborn. So observe.

LMAO

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Then maybe the shooter isnt in us 4, wis.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I directly asked you to tell me what you believe and don't believe so you could stop, yet you keep talking directly to ETL

And I answered to you that I don't believe you because everything you have said is easily fakeable.

Excuse me if I care more about snapping ETL out of her stupidity right now.

Also this was mean and unnecessary at this stage of this setup. Shame on you.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You don't know I'm being stubborn. I'm not hypertunneling on Om. I'm even engaging him to see if my theory is correct. When I hypertunnel, IF I hyper tunnel, then you can call me stupid.

<3

But right now I'm not. I'm just trying to figure things out. I also just happen to disagree with the basis for your decision about uc. I don't agree with the foundations that you have built it on, and thus I don't agree with the read itself. That's all.

p-edit: It could be Wisdom too, but I like the idea of lynching Om because of the more than one reason that supports the idea:

1) Om read his role PM when the night started. The shooter either shot blindly or shot because he knew he could. Who was the town vig with no modifiers to limit his shots, so we know the shot came from scum.
2) Om gave his percentage at 99% which was suspect when he first said it, but add to this his claim of neighbor.
3) He is the only one of us who has claimed to have taken no action at all.
4) After I start pushing him, he immediately votes me.

I have not liked his reactions, and his OMGUS vote really sets off a lot of alarm bells.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I highly doubt two vigs given Who had no modifiers.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Oh he was? That changes things, Wis.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

The likelihood of a second vig actually becomes a possibility to consider. It's not

extremely

likely but its not longer impossible.

p-edit: It's easier for him to say that he didn't do anything at all, than to open himself up for questioning regarding his choice of action.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

UGH. LOST MY POST.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Let him sort things out. If he's town, hopefully he will.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Scumhunting is about finding the differences in people's play. While everyone may have a different playstyle, the difference is motivation. In this setup, we don't have that. You can't argue about a person's motivation until after they have the opportunity to even have that motivation.

The person with motivation is the one who shot successfully.

Om, for you to say that you think I am lying "because gut" is as bad as if I tried to lynch you yesterday "because gut". I didn't because there was no other evidence to support my gut. Today, we have evidence and I believe it fits you.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

If they are two different people, yes. If not...

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Meh.

Several posts of mine have been eaten by site issues over the last day or so. The times that I had to post I was unable to access the site. I am currently at work right now, so consider this a prod dodge.

Will (hopefully) be able to catch up and respond tonight after work.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

By virtue of standard mechanics, mafia cannot target their partner for the kill so it would return no result, I would think.

Another theory is that your targeted your partner who targeted Who.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Or jingle half-lied.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

What jiffy just said.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You shouldn't call jingle stupid though ... or anyone really >:(

He is my favorite newbie; don't call him stupid.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

mean.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I'm down for the no lynch idea.

VOTE: NL

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I agree but I also think it's in our best interests to allow people to make their own choices, rather than give them a reason not to be read based on the choices they made. If that makes sense.

If you give someone direction, they are no longer responsible for following it. If you let people make their own decisions, we can hold them accountable for the results.