Micro 276 Peek a Boo! Mafia GAME OVER

[Wisdom]

Om is not the only one who knows his alignment. Who's shooter also does, which means there will be more kills.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

If they are two different people, yes. If not...

[Wisdom]

Not the point. Even if it's Om, there will still be kills, therefore no-lynch makes no sense.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Meh.

Several posts of mine have been eaten by site issues over the last day or so. The times that I had to post I was unable to access the site. I am currently at work right now, so consider this a prod dodge.

Will (hopefully) be able to catch up and respond tonight after work.

[Jingle]

Unless it is Om, those kills will be basically random, thus have a decent shot at hitting their scumbuddy. I'm fine with that, as it is almost as likely to hit scum as a lynch right now. The wrinkle in this plan is other people looking at their roles. If I had been more sure of my towniness, I would have put this forward yesterday.

[Majiffy]

You don't think it's likely but Jingle did exactly the same thing except they weren't successful.

Unlikely =/= Impossible
Also, we don't know for certain if Jingle was or was not successful, frankly.

PEDIT: No I didn't want to die without having used a potentially good PR that may have been in my posession. I didn't want to take a shot in the dark and end up failing big time, I wanted to know for sure what I was so that I could use it to the best of my ability before I died.

How does that have anything to do with "fatal night actions" pointing at you, and how was picking up your role PM supposed to counteract that?

I do disagree that everyone's attention is on Om because he picked up his role PM. I think the reason everyone's attention is on him is because of his lack of a night action, his Neighbor claim which is not alignment indicative either way, and the happening of a night kill on a dead vig.

Would he claim neighbor/no action had he not read his role PM?

...No? Why would he?

You're trailing close to pulling a very fallacious argument.

Scumhunting is about finding the differences in people's play. While everyone may have a different playstyle, the difference is motivation. In this setup, we don't have that. You can't argue about a person's motivation until after they have the opportunity to even have that motivation.

The person with motivation is the one who shot successfully.

Om, for you to say that you think I am lying "because gut" is as bad as if I tried to lynch you yesterday "because gut". I didn't because there was no other evidence to support my gut. Today, we have evidence and I believe it fits you.

There is another way to scumhunt in this game but I think we shot ourselves in the foot by claiming all our town prob. %'s as far as doing it that way.

Just as if two different members submitted two different kills in a QT, the latter action will be the one that is given prevalence.

Danke.

Thank you for assuming I'm stupid though.

... But you are.

Observe;

Town wins by lynching scum. If all townies could avoid being lynched by way of being obvtown, town would automatically win in this setup.
Because of this, it makes the most sense for a townie to play as obvtown as possible.
Ergo, playing in a pro-town fashion is the best way for a town-aligned player in this setup to achieve their wincon.

Scum wins by outnumbering town. If all scum can avoid being lynched by way of appearing obvtown, scum would automatically win in this setup.
Because of this, it makes the most sense for a scum to play as obvtown as possible.
Ergo, playing in a pro-town fashion is the best way for a scum-aligned player in this setup to achieve their wincon.

As we have the same conclusion regardless of alignment, we now know that optimum strategy is not alignment-dependent and as such, determining your alignment is relatively unimportant towards achieving your wincon.

As such, it is not necessary to check your role PM as either alignment and still manage to pull off a win.

The reason scumkills are more threatening than lynches are because they're directed. With Om the only one who knows his alignment, there are decent odds that scum-actions aren't directed.

Explain. I don't see any evidence or logic to support this.

[Majiffy]

Unless it is Om, those kills will be basically random, thus have a decent shot at hitting their scumbuddy. I'm fine with that, as it is almost as likely to hit scum as a lynch right now. The wrinkle in this plan is other people looking at their roles. If I had been more sure of my towniness, I would have put this forward yesterday.

That's a big "unless".

[EspeciallyTheLies]

By virtue of standard mechanics, mafia cannot target their partner for the kill so it would return no result, I would think.

Another theory is that your targeted your partner who targeted Who.

[Majiffy]

Also, according to mechanics SSK just confirmed, you could still be scum, as long as your scumbuddy submitted the kill choice

after

you submitted your kill action on whomever it was.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

Or jingle half-lied.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

What jiffy just said.

[Majiffy]

There's also a number of other possibilities that prevent the "can I submit a kill?" action to being accurate proof of alignment in this setup.

Not really worth getting into them all, unless you've got severe brain trauma and can't work them out on your own.

Sooo yeah.

[Majiffy]

So as per usual, we're back to Majiffy being right and you should help me policy lynch Wisdom.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

You shouldn't call jingle stupid though ... or anyone really >:(

He is my favorite newbie; don't call him stupid.

[Wisdom]

What I find interesting is this;

Jingle claimed that his kill failure makes him town.
He then argued that no-lynch is good because the kill choice is random.
Why didn't he assume that the killer would shoot him, since (according to him) the kill failure proved he is town?

[Wisdom]

...No? Why would he?

Therefore you agree that his reading his role PM is what resulted in the attention he got.

[Majiffy]

...No? Why would he?

Therefore you agree that his reading his role PM is what resulted in the attention he got.

fallacious argument.

You shouldn't call jingle stupid though ... or anyone really >:(

He is my favorite newbie; don't call him stupid.

I'm going to continue calling stupid, stupid. It usually gets stupid's attention, and sometimes stupid becomes less stupid because of it.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

mean.

[Jingle]

The kill failure doesn't make me town. The kill failure greatly increases the chance I'm town. That I submitted my kill fairly late also decreases my scum chance in my eyes. This should be absolutely null for all of you because this is mafia and people are probably lying. That gives me the motivation to try and draw the game out to get more town power. Unless it is Om, which, yes, is a big caveat, then the scum who knows they are scum do not know their buddy. Hence, random shooting has a chance at hitting the buddy. I plan to use protect tonight, because like watch it casts a fairly wide net and is high utility. It's also an iconic role, and while overpowered in role madness I would be surprised if no one had it.

Also yes, playing obvtown as either alignment would be optimal in the situation of 2 things. 1. People don't realize that towniness or not-towniness aren't really factors yet. 2. You believe yourself charismatic enough to influence everyone to not vote for you. Unlike certain jiffys, I don't have that much faith in my charisma. The only useful lynches right now ARE policy lynches, so we should be playing to be useful.

And as to the no lynch idea, here are the numbers. If we lynch, we are at 4 and 2, which a NK might make 3 and 2, LYLO, with no one having used their spiffy roles knowingly. Unless someone gets lucky with their action guess, we'll be going into LYLO blind. A no lynch on the other hand, leaves us at 5 and 2, with a possible kill putting us to MYLO. At that point we should all look at our PMs, in order to have as many results as possible going into LYLO. If the kill doesn't happen due to protect actions getting lucky, then we have exactly this same situation but with better power roles. Capische? The only reason I didn't suggest this yesterday was that I had a decent chance of being scum, and didn't want to risk hosing myself through role madness.

[Jingle]

ETL, don't worry bout it. I do stupid things on purpose to make things more fun for me sometimes. For example, I recently took near conftown Thor into LYLO when I didn't have to because the other LYLO options were really boring. I then lost. That was incredibly stupid, but still the most fun part of the game.

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I'm down for the no lynch idea.

VOTE: NL

[Wisdom]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: no lynch

Sounds good.

[Jingle]

And the stupid people get sheeped. Yay!

[Jingle]

Also, I think either block or protect is the highest utility for town tonight. Thoughts?

[EspeciallyTheLies]

I agree but I also think it's in our best interests to allow people to make their own choices, rather than give them a reason not to be read based on the choices they made. If that makes sense.

If you give someone direction, they are no longer responsible for following it. If you let people make their own decisions, we can hold them accountable for the results.