Micro 269: See Nine Minus Minus (Game Over!)

[TierShift]

I think he means that if we get a NK and a lyncg every night we will end up in Mylo a day earlier than we could have been in lylo. In mylo, we would no lynch.

[Does Bo Know]

Votecount 1.15

[L-1] Obscurity - BBmolla, The Silver Bard, CherryDrPepper, Stuffed Crust

[L-3] FuDuzn - Bulbazak, TierShift
[L-4] Bulbazak - FuDuzn
[L-4] BBmolla - Titus
[L-4] The Silver Bard - Obscurity

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch!

Deadline is Friday, December 27 at 4:00 PM CST ((expired on 2013-12-27 16:00:00)).

---

Stuffed Crust is V/LA until the end of January 25th.

[Titus]

In mylo, that's fine. The no lynch gives us a shitton more information in the back. Plus, a no lynch may not happen if a Doctor guesses right. The long term play is to vig Obscurity. He is trying, although not supporting his conclusions well. I will hammer if necessary bc I am not townreading him, I just don't think this is the way to go.

[TierShift]

Or if we have a full vig he could just vig multiple times but yeah enough spec up speculation. I agree with your post and I too will hammer at deadline.

[BBmolla]

You do understand that if he's vigged we have to no lynch anyway right? So basically him getting vigged is equivalent to him getting lynched.

Since when does vigging require a no lynch?

Look, assuming he's town:

Lynching
9 players alive d1
1 lynched, 1 nightkilled
7 players alive d2
1 lynched, 1 nightkilled
5 players alive d3

Vigging
9 players alive d1
1 lynched, 1 nightkilled, 1 vigged
6 players alive d2
no lynch, 1 nightkill
5 players alive d3

Fuctionally, all the vig does is replace our d2 lynch.

[TierShift]

Well, since we

will have

to dispose of obs, a vigkill and then hoping for another vigkill or doctor is better than just lynching and then not being able to benefit from a doctor or vig.

[Titus]

BBmolla, that is only true if Obs is town and no doctor heal and we have a vig and we mislynch today. That is a huge stack of assumptions.

Even then, by no lynching, scum are forced to kill someone they feel is a threat, thus giving clues to their id.

[BBmolla]

*shrug*

[Titus]

vla until December 24

Going to see my mom and Sister. I will try to squeeze in posting. This is an every game vla. If I miss one and you're in that game, feel free to notify the mod.

[The Silver Bard]

Bah, site was down all yesterday for me. I'll try to squeeze in some gametime later today, but I am doing my last christmasgifthopping as well tonight. Also will be V/LA from friday 20/12 to 27/12, going away for the hollidays. Will try to read and post when I can though.

[Titus]

BBMolla, why are you so against this plan? Is it because you want to keep us stalled at Day 1? And give us no solid suspects for day 2?

If we lynch accurately, we are in a good position. In your opinion, Obs has to die anyway befire lylo. So why so stubborn?

[BBmolla]

No, because if we don't lynch him today, we have to autolynch him tomorrow (AKA, we have to ignore any useful information we might have to do so).

[BBmolla]

Like you don't seem to understand how autoloss a situation with him in LYLO is

I'd much rather lynch him today, educated lynch tomorrow.

[BBmolla]

If we get scum day 1 (unlikely given numbers and lack of solid info) than it's different but that's unlikely given numbers and lack of solid info.

[Titus]

Why is having known town autoloss, assuming arguendo that Obs is town? That's a guaranteed clear and both cn make their cases.

If you're convinced he's town, there is no need to lynch him at all.

If Obs is scum, my vig plan is optimal. We have information from Day 1 to use. If no one vigges Obs, scum cannot claim vig unless they also imply a roleblockeris in the setup. This is a chess match I want to win.

Gotta go catch my flight.

[BBmolla]

Titus he wants to lynch me and Silver Bard. And there is no way to change his mind because there is no reasoning with him.

He's going to lynch me/Silver Bard at LYLO and lose us the game, how can you not understand this?

Let's say we lynch wrong today, and vig him. During the night, a tracker tracked someone to the kill and they claim some other role. He's probably lying let's lynch him! Oh wait, never mind, lynching him loses us the game if we're wrong, better just no lynch.

I'd much rather lynch the policy lynch today and actually try to lynch correctly with information tomorrow

You're not going to convince me on this Titus.

[BBmolla]

If we have a "semi guilty" I'd like to be able to lynch it without the possibility of losing.

[BBmolla]

Plus the wagon on him is probably all town.

[BBmolla]

He could still be scum with one of Fu/Bulba yknow.

[FuDuzn]

With the site going down hopefully I can get to this game today, if not then tomorrow.

[Does Bo Know]

Yeah, I'm just gonna go ahead and say that if you posted before 12:00 AM on December 19, you have an extra 24 hours added to all the activity rules, added just like last time.

[TierShift]

I think both of you (BB, Titus) make valid points, but I'm with BB here.
The chance of a vig in the setup is small (30% or something, wrote it before). I'm not willing to give up our day 2 lynch to something stupid with 70% probability. I'd rather 100% give up our day 1 lynch.

I know the scum won't be able to fakeclaim vig anymore but well that's something I'm willing to lose.

[CherryDrPepper]

Hey the lets vig obscurity thing is dumb, move on.

1) low chance of vig
2) he's actually scummy.

Not retyping my longer post.

[Titus]

Ok, given the site issues, the fact no discussion is really going on, I will hammer after 24 hours unless someone objects. If I hammer then, night falls on my vla. I still would rather have my plan, but common sense lost.

[Does Bo Know]

Bump