Mafia 59: Hell on Earth - Game over!

[spectrumvoid]

I haven't really gotten this game together, but I'm sure that some scum were on yesterday's lynch, given the speed at which it built up.

[M4yhem]

Vote:Yosarian2

I wish I had a good reason for the hammer yesterday but the fact is it was an act of pure stupidity on my part. I had a very strong gut feeling that Yos was scum protecting Bogre and I chose to follow that feeling instead of thinking through my actions logically. I was wrong.

As for my vote, I still think Yos is scum. I've seen the man play as town; he dominates every conversation. Here, he's been lying back, letting others do the work. He may not have been on every badwagon, but he is always there on the sidelines, pushing them along. Also, he was a main factor in the death of Livinggod.
I now think that he protected Bogre to make himself look more town.

On the subject of Fircoal- I don't think I did anything wrong. He was acting really oddly, and when people act oddly in this game you questions them. If I was scum, what would be the point of pushing on Fircoal in broad daylight? Surely I'd just suggest to my group to have him nightkilled?

[Yosarian2]

Vote:Yosarian2

I wish I had a good reason for the hammer yesterday but the fact is it was an act of pure stupidity on my part. I had a very strong gut feeling that Yos was scum protecting Bogre and I chose to follow that feeling instead of thinking through my actions logically. I was wrong.

You should know by now that I often defend people I think are town. It's something I do quite a bit.

As for my vote, I still think Yos is scum. I've seen the man play as town; he dominates every conversation. Here, he's been lying back, letting others do the work. He may not have been on every badwagon, but he is always there on the sidelines, pushing them along. Also, he was a main factor in the death of Livinggod.

"Always on the sidelines pushing them along"? Out of the 4 bandwagons we've had so far, I opposed two of them, and I was correct both times in thinking that the person being bandwagoned was pro-town.

I do not always "dominate the conversation" as town. I can easily give you any number of examples of times when I was town and was certanly not dominating the coversation.

As for livinggod, yes, I led an attack against livingod, and I was wrong. However, I was attacking livingod for reasons that seemed quite logical at the time, and that everyone else agreed with, and I was quite surprised when livingod turned out town. Compare that to the "logic" behind your vote on Panzer and Bogre. And dosn't this argument ("He led the town in attacking livingod!") totally contradict your other argument ("If Yos was town, he would be leading the town rather then sitting back!")

I now think that he protected Bogre to make himself look more town.

That dosn't make any sense either, though, as even if I was in one of the scumgroups, I wouldn't have had any way of knowing if Bogre was town or if he was in the other scumgroup. Defending a person of unknown alignment who is heading towards a lynch is quite dangerous; if Bogre had turned out to be scum, I'd probably get lynched today. Why would I take that risk as a scum?

On the subject of Fircoal- I don't think I did anything wrong. He was acting really oddly, and when people act oddly in this game you questions them. If I was scum, what would be the point of pushing on Fircoal in broad daylight? Surely I'd just suggest to my group to have him nightkilled?

(shrug) Well, perhaps you were wondering if he was a power role or not, and wanted to confirm your suspicions before using one of your kills on him. Perhaps you thought he was a power role but wanted to know WHAT power role he was; perhaps you wouldn't have wanted to kill him if he was the cop that was looking for the other scum group. There are any number of possible reason why you would want to get him to reveal his role if you were scum. I can't think of one good reason you would have wanted him to reveal his role if you were town.

[Battle Mage]

oh btw-can someone please explain why, with 2 scumgroups and no town power pieces who can stop them, why we only had 1 kill?
i mean, assuming the Borg targetted Jack, (and obviously with the knowledge that the Aliens arent going to kill their own teammate) who did the Aliens target?
It doesnt make sense in my mind...

[Yosarian2]

BM: I'd assume it's most likely because of this ability

From the mod's discription of all the roles in the game:

There are 4

ALIEN MAFIA

:
W, X, Y, and Z are ALIEN MAFIA. Each night one of you may attempt to kill another player. Tell me which one of you does it. Special ability: The first time one of you would be killed by BORG MAFIA, nothing happens. You do not learn whether this ability has been used.

The aliens most likely tried to kill a borg and thus failed. Or else they failed to send in a kill.

[Battle Mage]

that doesnt work. the section you quoted stated that Aliens had a 1 time invincibility to Borgs, but in this case it should be the other way around.

BM: I'd assume it's most likely because of this ability

From the mod's discription of all the roles in the game:

There are 4

ALIEN MAFIA

:
W, X, Y, and Z are ALIEN MAFIA. Each night one of you may attempt to kill another player. Tell me which one of you does it. Special ability: The first time one of you would be killed by BORG MAFIA, nothing happens. You do not learn whether this ability has been used.

The aliens most likely tried to kill a borg and thus failed. Or else they failed to send in a kill.

[Battle Mage]

EBWOP: I see that both Mafia groups share this ability-you just quoted the wrong one.

[Akbar]

I posted on page 25 my FOS of Yos, M4y, and BM. I'm undecided on which to vote for.

[Yosarian2]

Just noticed that that post you mention, way back on march 25'th, was the last significant post you made, Akbar, and that that was back on day 3. Did nothing that happan during the end of day 3, or all of day 4, or so far on day 5 change your mind at all? Nothing you see worth commenting on in the last 2 days?

[Akbar]

@Yos
Sure there was significance. M4yhem and BM managed to lynch another townie. Does that remove my suspicion of them? No.

[Battle Mage]

that isnt a true representation, as there were more than 2 people on that wagon yesterday.
It is also not an excuse for your reluctance to contribute...

@Yos
Sure there was significance. M4yhem and BM managed to lynch another townie. Does that remove my suspicion of them? No.

[theopor_COD]

Battle Axe

You got any more theories on ~n9v and Milkman, I'd like to hear them.

[Battle Mage]

lol stfu. i will modkill the guy who came up with that if he says it again.

ill look up my thoughts from yesterday immediately.

Battle Axe

You got any more theories on ~n9v and Milkman, I'd like to hear them.

[Battle Mage]

well my suspicion of N9V is pretty clear-cut.
Yesterday, he began by voting for me, at a time when me and Bogre both had fairly significant wagons. He made it quite clear that he couldnt care less which one of us got lynched, but he decided i was slightly scummier, based on the crappy reason that i made a bad hammer.
Then, when Bogre looked the more likely to get lynched, he switched over in order to join the crowd.
Obviously with the knowledge that Bogre was town, and knowing (as i do) that i am also town, it makes N9V (who wanted us both dead) look very bad. I mean, i can understand someone protown making a mistake with their vote yesterday, but N9V made a mistake with BOTH his choices. He is certainly a competent Mafia player, and i cant see him doing that as a protown player...
ill make the case on milkman later, and decide who i think should be the play for today.

[Jalyn]

Just noticed that that post you mention, way back on march 25'th, was the last significant post you made, Akbar, and that that was back on day 3. Did nothing that happan during the end of day 3, or all of day 4, or so far on day 5 change your mind at all? Nothing you see worth commenting on in the last 2 days?

Do you mean other than his day 4 post on March 31st where he voted Battle Mage? That either an unfortunate miss or an interesting lie.

I'm very interested in the where the votes went yesterday. I would have thought that the Borg, knowing that they knew an Alien on day 4, would have at least tried to lynch that person, freeing up their night kill. (In fact, that's why I wasn't sure what to think about the Borge wagon at the time, I thought that the crap logic used to build it might be masking scum who knew Borge was scum. They mostly went into my mental file of people to watch. Then Borge turned out to be town and last night Jack was killed and turned out to be alien. I would think that that means that Jack was their missed kill, but he had no votes at all yesterday. All in all, I don't think I understand what the Borg are doing. Either they never tried to lynch the guy that they knew was alien scum or they didn't try to kill the guy that they knew was alien scum (which would probably make Battle Mage the known alien scum, as he was the only one to get votes other the Borge yesterday.) I can even see why they wouldn't have bothered killing him during the night game, as his was the second biggest wagon, he seems lynchable - why waste the kill?
Today, after the Aliens miss a kill, there's a bandwagon on M4yhem. This is also interesting, and as that, to me, makes him more likely Borg than Alien and the Borg are currently up in numbers, makes him a reasonable play to me, not that I'm putting my vote there yet - these last few days show this town to be WAY too hammer happy.

So, to condense what I said in a long drawn out way above. I'm wondering if M4yhem was the attempted kill by the Aliens last night and confirmed Borg to 3 people, Battle Mage was the attempted kill by the Borg two nights ago and confirmed Alien to them and we now have two rival scum teams trying to lynch the guy that they know to be scum.

[~N9V~]

Pfft, O.K, so a uncharacteristic hammer TWO days in a row doesn't make it look like a mafia group going out and trying to kill all townies. And just to let you know, EVEN if I was scum, I wouldn't be trying to kill townies right now. THey need at least one protown player alive to win. Think before you post.

An second, what about everyone else who thought you and Bogre were scum? Does that mean they're scum?

[Yosarian2]

Just noticed that that post you mention, way back on march 25'th, was the last significant post you made, Akbar, and that that was back on day 3. Did nothing that happan during the end of day 3, or all of day 4, or so far on day 5 change your mind at all? Nothing you see worth commenting on in the last 2 days?

Do you mean other than his day 4 post on March 31st where he voted Battle Mage? That either an unfortunate miss or an interesting lie.

I meant to say the last "substantive" post; I don't really call a one-line vote post a subsnative contrabution.

[Yosarian2]

So, to condense what I said in a long drawn out way above. I'm wondering if M4yhem was the attempted kill by the Aliens last night and confirmed Borg to 3 people, Battle Mage was the attempted kill by the Borg two nights ago and confirmed Alien to them and we now have two rival scum teams trying to lynch the guy that they know to be scum.

Hmm. Interesting speculation. Not sure the scum groups would be that obveous, though.

And just to let you know, EVEN if I was scum, I wouldn't be trying to kill townies right now. THey need at least one protown player alive to win. Think before you post.

Not true. If there are no pro-town players left, the scum group with the more scum left wins. So if you're in the scum group that's ahead you might be trying to wipe out all the townies now.

[Jalyn]

Possibly not. I like to muse about things. I forgot one of my "musings" in that post though.

On the off chance that we manage to lynch someone that's not town, I wonder if, once the lynch has become apparent, it would make sense for the lynchee to announce to the town who the missed kill was... It could be win/win for the scum group and the town. The scum group frees up their night kill and the town gets a sure lynch. (Doesn't make sense for the scum group to lie - if we're lynching Alien, they're two down. If we're lynching Borg, they'll be back to tied with the Aliens.) The downside is that it does free up the night kill, making it more likely that town dies at night.

This means that anyone that hammers before the lynchee has a chance to speak is incredibly suspect, of course.

[Battle Mage]

nice post Jalyn. only big problem is that it all hinges on me being Alien, which isnt true. to this end i also doubt whether M4yhem is scum, as your logic is terrible.

FOS: Jalyn

for presenting fallacy as fact.

@N9V-no, YOU just struck me as suspicious, as YOU were one person who clearly expressed their willingness to lynch 2 protown players.

Do you mean other than his day 4 post on March 31st where he voted Battle Mage? That either an unfortunate miss or an interesting lie.

I'm very interested in the where the votes went yesterday. I would have thought that the Borg, knowing that they knew an Alien on day 4, would have at least tried to lynch that person, freeing up their night kill. (In fact, that's why I wasn't sure what to think about the Borge wagon at the time, I thought that the crap logic used to build it might be masking scum who knew Borge was scum. They mostly went into my mental file of people to watch. Then Borge turned out to be town and last night Jack was killed and turned out to be alien. I would think that that means that Jack was their missed kill, but he had no votes at all yesterday. All in all, I don't think I understand what the Borg are doing. Either they never tried to lynch the guy that they knew was alien scum or they didn't try to kill the guy that they knew was alien scum (which would probably make Battle Mage the known alien scum, as he was the only one to get votes other the Borge yesterday.) I can even see why they wouldn't have bothered killing him during the night game, as his was the second biggest wagon, he seems lynchable - why waste the kill?
Today, after the Aliens miss a kill, there's a bandwagon on M4yhem. This is also interesting, and as that, to me, makes him more likely Borg than Alien and the Borg are currently up in numbers, makes him a reasonable play to me, not that I'm putting my vote there yet - these last few days show this town to be WAY too hammer happy.

So, to condense what I said in a long drawn out way above. I'm wondering if M4yhem was the attempted kill by the Aliens last night and confirmed Borg to 3 people, Battle Mage was the attempted kill by the Borg two nights ago and confirmed Alien to them and we now have two rival scum teams trying to lynch the guy that they know to be scum.

[Yosarian2]

@Yos
Sure there was significance. M4yhem and BM managed to lynch another townie. Does that remove my suspicion of them? No.

My point was that you haven't actually commented on anything at all in a very long time. You made one post on day 3 laying out some FOS's, made one post on day 4 voting for someone based on that day 3 post, and are now just saying that you're going to vote for someone else based off of your day 3 post.

But anyway, if that's what you really think, then come join me and help me lynch m4yhem, he's obv scum scum.

[Jalyn]

I haven't stated anything as fact. I have made a lot of inferences based on three facts that are blatantly obvious:
1. There has only been one night kill for the last two nights (actually, every night, but no inferences could be made about the first ones.)
2. The Worf role was dead before the last two missed kills.
3. The Borg were able to kill an Alien

Now, there are some possibilities that I haven't covered:
1. One of the missed night kills could have been a scum group forgetting to put in a night kill
2. One of the missed night kills could have been the two scum groups hitting the same person.

The reason I haven't covered them is that they seem unlikely. This hasn't been a game with a lot of inactives, I doubt either scum group has missed sending in a night kill. As for the second option, it's actually not possible (I mean, one of the non-kills could have been because of this, but both scum groups have missed the night kill because of the protection at least once, assuming no non-sends.) The Borg had to have had a protection non-kill because Jack is dead. The Aliens rather obviously didn't target Jack last night. All of this brings me to the conclusion that both the Borg and the Aliens have managed to figure out a member of the other group.

Now, I originally assumed that Jack was the missed kill for the Borg and that they targetted him again last night. This may be the case and would mean that the Borg no longer have a certain Alien target. The other possibility is that they've chosen to try to lynch the person that they know is Alien because they think s/he is lynchable. That would mean that you or M4yhem are the most likely to be the "known" Alien, with you being even more likely because people were trying to lynch you yesterday.

[Battle Mage]

EXCEPT: I'M NOT AN ALIEN. Kinda puts a spanner in the works doesnt it.

i do sorta see where you're coming from, but i dont think its likely, considering it is also based on the assumption that the mafia groups were that desperate to kill someone in particular that they targetted the same person twice. Much more likely, up until this point, is that THE SCUM GROUPS WERENT AIMING FOR EACH OTHER. Obviously the town began the game in the ascendancy, and both scum groups aimed to change this. now the situation is somewhat different, but it wasnt always this way.

I haven't stated anything as fact. I have made a lot of inferences based on three facts that are blatantly obvious:
1. There has only been one night kill for the last two nights (actually, every night, but no inferences could be made about the first ones.)
2. The Worf role was dead before the last two missed kills.
3. The Borg were able to kill an Alien

Now, there are some possibilities that I haven't covered:
1. One of the missed night kills could have been a scum group forgetting to put in a night kill
2. One of the missed night kills could have been the two scum groups hitting the same person.

The reason I haven't covered them is that they seem unlikely. This hasn't been a game with a lot of inactives, I doubt either scum group has missed sending in a night kill. As for the second option, it's actually not possible (I mean, one of the non-kills could have been because of this, but both scum groups have missed the night kill because of the protection at least once, assuming no non-sends.) The Borg had to have had a protection non-kill because Jack is dead. The Aliens rather obviously didn't target Jack last night. All of this brings me to the conclusion that both the Borg and the Aliens have managed to figure out a member of the other group.

Now, I originally assumed that Jack was the missed kill for the Borg and that they targetted him again last night. This may be the case and would mean that the Borg no longer have a certain Alien target. The other possibility is that they've chosen to try to lynch the person that they know is Alien because they think s/he is lynchable. That would mean that you or M4yhem are the most likely to be the "known" Alien, with you being even more likely because people were trying to lynch you yesterday.

[Nightfall]

Im trying to come up with some explanation for our night events but I can't seem to figure it out. I would have thought that there would have been at least one double nk night by now...

P.S. BM why wouldn't the scum groups target each other?

[Jalyn]

Interesting that you focused so specifically on that option, BM, seeing as I gave three options: Jack could have been the missed kill, M4yhem could be an alien or you could be an alien.

Anyway, if the scum groups were logical, they should have been going after the other scum group the entire game. The other scum group is their biggest threat, regardless of the size of the town. There would be some searching for the town power roles as well, but killing vanilla townies should have been a disappointment.