Mafia 59: Hell on Earth - Game over!

[theopor_COD]

unvote

I'm thinking currently both Yos and M4yhem are scum, their attacks on each other reek of both knowing the other's alignment, attempting to get the other lynched. My main concern with voting now though is that we could do with taking a Borg down. I need to review things to determine which I'd prefer to vote for today.

As for BM I think it's unlikely he has any confirmed knowledge of scum, he's now been overly aggressive towards Milkman, Akbar and ~n9v~, if he was scum he'd only know for sure one was in the other group. That doesn't mean a) BM isn't scum or B) The three he's suspected recently aren't scum it just means I'm more confident of Yos/M4yhem being bad guys, only problem is determining which is the Borg, as it's better we lynch one of them than an alien.

Jalyn raises some good points with regard the lack of night kills, I hadn't thought that the two scum groups would target the same person each night, it's quite possible that's happened on a couple of occasions. Mainly because nothing from Livingod's postings helps give off any suspicions.

[Yosarian2]

I'm thinking currently both Yos and M4yhem are scum, their attacks on each other reek of both knowing the other's alignment, attempting to get the other lynched.

Right. I vote someone because he looks incredibly scummy, and he OMGUS votes me back, and that makes me scum? That makes a lot of sense.

[Battle Mage]

BM- What do you think of Yosarian?

i think he is pretty protownish. I mean, in this game, the odds of ANYONE being scum are pretty high but i would say Yos is pretty low on my suspect list, as are you.
2 scum that need lynching today are Milkman and Akbar, however perhaps the former should go first because Akbar still has some serious explaining to do...

BM

[spectrumvoid]

I'd especially like Akbar to explain how he came up with his list of who's what alignment.

My opinion: I believe scum would prefer to kill off the other scum group. I don't think we should even bother speculating about this though, since I don't think scum knows the alignment of people. (to theopor: and why are you assuming that scum-yos/m4yhem would know scum-m4yhem/yos's alignment?)

Regarding the lack of double kills, I think it's unlikely that scum targeted the same person. Reason being the people who were night-killed were not that high profile, and I don't really see a definite reason why they were killed. So to go by probability, I'd say it's unlikely that both groups of scum targeted the same person. I believe the cross-kill ability or the doc ability worked somehow.

I don't think Yos is scum. This is because I haven't seen a scum-tell from him. Unless I've gotten this wrong, the case against him is his attack on m4yhem, yes? I think m4yhem is possibly scummy, together with the rest on the various wagons. So I don't see anything wrong with Yos going after m4yhem.

I'm leaning towards BM scum too, for vague reasons which I will put down very soon.

[M4yhem]

Okay, listen. Yosarian2 is scum for sure. I'm 100% certain of this. Why? because I'm an alien and we tried to kill him last night. The kill failed; the only way that works is if he's a borg, since the warf is dead. (That was nice going btw Yos. Did you suspect him of being a power role, or was it just a happy accident?)

To my team; I'm sorry for giving up like this but I figure the borg will kill me anyway even if I manage to get Yos lynched, so I might as well make sure he dies before me. I have faith that you guys can win without me.

I think Jalyn might be scum with Yos, because she tried to get my bandwagon moving without actually having the guts to vote for me; spectrumvoid and Akbar are possibilities too, for the same reason. My gut tells me BM is town.

Confirm vote: Yosairian2

[Battle Mage]

wow, i wasnt expecting you guys to come out until tomorrow at least...
well i cant really say i disbelieve your claim, seeing as there is little to be gained by lying. It also makes more sense to lynch Yos first if he is Borg. :arrow:
Btw, if your an alien, can you tell your crew not to NK me?

Unvote, Vote: Yosarian

also,

IGMEOY: Milkman, Akbar

i know you are also both scum, but the order we kill you in doesnt really matter.
BM

Okay, listen. Yosarian2 is scum for sure. I'm 100% certain of this. Why? because I'm an alien and we tried to kill him last night. The kill failed; the only way that works is if he's a borg, since the warf is dead. (That was nice going btw Yos. Did you suspect him of being a power role, or was it just a happy accident?)

To my team; I'm sorry for giving up like this but I figure the borg will kill me anyway even if I manage to get Yos lynched, so I might as well make sure he dies before me. I have faith that you guys can win without me.

I think Jalyn might be scum with Yos, because she tried to get my bandwagon moving without actually having the guts to vote for me; spectrumvoid and Akbar are possibilities too, for the same reason. My gut tells me BM is town.

Confirm vote: Yosairian2

[Kelly Chen]

Vote count

2 - Battle Mage (milkman, Akbar)
2 - Yosarian2 (M4yhem, Battle Mage)
1 - M4yhem (Yosarian2)
1 - Nightfall (Jalyn)

not voting: Nightfall, spectrumvoid, ~N9V~, theopor_COD
vacant: TheJiveMachine

Deadline: Wed May 2

With 11 alive and 10 present it takes 6 votes to toss someone into the steel!

I will be seeking a replacement for TheJiveMachine.

Friday

morning

I will prod everyone whose last post was

Sunday or earlier

.

I'll take special requests as always.

[Jalyn]

And here I wasn't expecting to get a positive night kill result until we were ready to lynch someone

I'd still prefer that we didn't have a quick lynch, and the way that this town hammers, I'm going to hold off moving my vote over. Besides, I'd really like Yosarian to let us know if Jack was the missed night kill that they went after twice, if M4yhem was the missed kill and that's why they were trying to lynch him or if there is a third known alien.

[spectrumvoid]

Well played yos. I must admit I didn't suspect that at all. I see no reason for m4yhem to lie, since I've already stated that I believe scum would try to target the other scum.

vote: Yos

[theopor_COD]

First off Jalyn is correct we shouldn't rush things here. Secondly I'm not sure if I believe M4yhem's alien claim, he's just as likely to be Borg. He's been rather opportunistic and claimed but that doesn't make him confirmed alien or make Yos the play today. The only problem we have is that the only confirmed bad guy is Jack so I'm going to scootle back and see if there's been any interaction or distancing between Jack and M4yhem or Jack and Yos.

[spectrumvoid]

thoepor: The thing is it doesn't matter whether m4yhem is borg or whether m4yhem is alien. Both sets are scum. And I can't see any reason for m4yhem to lie about this (why would a townie claim scum?), so it's likely m4yhem and Yos are in opposing scum groups.

[theopor_COD]

thoepor: The thing is it doesn't matter whether m4yhem is borg or whether m4yhem is alien. Both sets are scum. And I can't see any reason for m4yhem to lie about this (why would a townie claim scum?), so it's likely m4yhem and Yos are in opposing scum groups.

A townie wouldn't. However I could see Borg claiming Alien to avoid a lynch even if it's just for one day, so in a way it does matter. As a town we need to lynch the bigger scum group ideally to give us more of a chance. I'm surprised you think it doesn't matter which scum group we lynch.

If Yos is Borg then we go 3 Borg, 3 Alien, 4 Town - more chance of town win.
If Yos is Alien then we go 4 Borg, 2 Alien, 4 Town - Borg big favourites.

Or Yos could be town and M4yhem is lieing out of his ass, but that's far-fetched in the extreme. Fact that both haven't died yet, is another reason I'm wary of both. M4yhem has acted scummy and Yos seems intent on having him taken down. The only other side issue is that I'd expect Yos to have been a favourite for the Worf role to block, so it's possible that Livingod protected Yos and M4yhem whichever scum group he's from, missing his kill that night. I don't think it's certain that M4yhem is telling the truth with regard the lack of a kill last night. Infact if I was scum and Yos wasn't in my team, I wouldn't be waiting until night four to take him out. I'd be doing it night one.

As I say I'm unsure which scumbag to vote, but only because M4yhem has played the gambit first I'm thinking he may be Borg. So am leaning that way currently.

[Battle Mage]

this is correct-i realised after my vote that M4yhem could just as easily be Borg as Alien with this claim. Id like to hear what Yos says before we lynch anyone, so please hold off on voting either person for now guys.
BM

First off Jalyn is correct we shouldn't rush things here. Secondly I'm not sure if I believe M4yhem's alien claim, he's just as likely to be Borg. He's been rather opportunistic and claimed but that doesn't make him confirmed alien or make Yos the play today. The only problem we have is that the only confirmed bad guy is Jack so I'm going to scootle back and see if there's been any interaction or distancing between Jack and M4yhem or Jack and Yos.

[~N9V~]

Hmm, I think it is looking towards all three, M4yhem, Yos, and BM are all scum. BM is least on that list, Yos is highest.

Fos: Yos, M2yhem, BM

Not ready to vote yet, we need to discuss the day, not do another quick lynch.

[~N9V~]

Err, I mean m4yhem.

[Jalyn]

BM is actually looking less like scum to me at this point, based both on my logic from up thread and his posts. He hasn't dropped off the list entirely, but both theoper_COD & spectrumvoid moved further up than him.

Also, yeah, Yos is scum, but he is higher on your list than the guy who

claimed

scum? Interesting.

M4yhem, I'm sure you're not going to answer much, but could you tell us if you missed any kills before last night?

[Yosarian2]

So you guys are just going to all take the claimed scum at his word? Seriously?

His claim completely falls through, on timing issues if nothing else. The kill missing last night was an alien kill, obviously, as the borg must have killed Jack the Alien. The kill missing the night before was probably an alien kill, as it was fairly obvious Firecol was Picard, so it would probably have been the Borg who killed him. But notice I only attacked M4yhem

today

, while he assumed I was scum

yesterday

in his "Bogre must be scum because yos is defending him" hammer. So even if you were to accept the idea that me and m4yhem were both scum who had identified each other through nightkills, it should be clear that M4yhem would be the borg, and I would be the alien, and therefore M4yhem would be the one who we would want to lynch today.

Now, note that that was just a hypothetical; I am not claiming scum, and I am not scum. My best guess at this point is that M4yhem is probably a borg scum stalling for time, who knowing his group is winning would rather see anyone but him lynched today; and after he foolishly OMGUS voted me and thus boxed himself into a real corner, he knows that the only chance he had of being believed (and thus buying another day for himself) would be to claim that his group had targeted me last night. I mean, I'm sure he would RATHER lynch someone in the other scum group then lynch me, but after the way he went after me earlier in the day he wouldn't be believed if he claimed a "guilty" on someone else, so he has to go after me.

I think it's pretty clear that we need to kill M4yhem now, the person who CLAIMED SCUM. We need to start lynching scum if we're to have any chance at all, we can't afford any more mistakes. Sure, he claimed to be an alien, but he would claim that no matter which scum group he was in; what motivation would a scum have to tell the town the truth at this time? And in any case, even if he was an alien, lynching an alien wouldn't be that bad; the aliens would then have to kill a borg tonight to keep the numbers even, and the town would be in a much better situation tomorrow then we are now.

[Jalyn]

Yosarian, I've broken down the night kills better than that.

Night one: one of the groups targetted a person livingod protected/the groups both targetted Twito/the borg hit an alien

Night two: one of the groups targetted a person livingod protected/the groups both targetted Smashy/the borg hit an alien

Night three: the groups both targetted Fircoal/the Borg hit an Alien

Night four: the Aliens hit a Borg

To be more specific, the Aliens apparently didn't understand Fircoal's hints at all and thought that he was the Newt. They had to have targetted Fircoal night 3. It is possible that the Borg ALSO targetted Fircoal, correctly identifying him as Picard, but the aliens certainly targetted Fircoal. This is certain because there was only one kill last night, and it was an Alien. If the Aliens had missed a kill on night 3, their kill on night 4 would have worked.

All of which means that the timing is exactly right for Alien M4yhem to have just realized that you are Borg by their night kill miss last night. He wouldn't have known this yesterday, as you assert, because the Aliens didn't miss their kill Night 3. From your confusion here, I'm guessing that both the Aliens & Borg targetted Fircoal on Night 3.

[Yosarian2]

Yosarian, I've broken down the night kills better than that.

Night one: one of the groups targetted a person livingod protected/the groups both targetted Twito/the borg hit an alien

Night two: one of the groups targetted a person livingod protected/the groups both targetted Smashy/the borg hit an alien

Night three: the groups both targetted Fircoal/the Borg hit an Alien

Night four: the Aliens hit a Borg

To be more specific, the Aliens apparently didn't understand Fircoal's hints at all and thought that he was the Newt. They had to have targetted Fircoal night 3. It is possible that the Borg ALSO targetted Fircoal, correctly identifying him as Picard, but the aliens certainly targetted Fircoal. This is certain because there was only one kill last night, and it was an Alien. If the Aliens had missed a kill on night 3, their kill on night 4 would have worked.

All of which means that the timing is exactly right for Alien M4yhem to have just realized that you are Borg by their night kill miss last night. He wouldn't have known this yesterday, as you assert, because the Aliens didn't miss their kill Night 3. From your confusion here, I'm guessing that both the Aliens & Borg targetted Fircoal on Night 3.

Or else my confusion means that I'm a townie trying to figure it out.

Look at it this way. By your own count of nightkills, the Borg might not have missed a kill since night 2. So, as I know that he's not telling the truth, my best guess at the moment M4yhem is a borg, he missed a kill on me night 2, and he's since assumed I'm an alien; while actually the kill was stopped by Worf, either by him protecting me or by him blocking a scum. Of course, the only way he could stop from getting lynched at this point was claiming to be an alien and claiming to know that I was borg, so that's what he did; he probably even thinks I am a scum.

I'm not sure why you're assuming he's telling the truth about which scum group he's in.

[theopor_COD]

I think the problem we got is M4yhem is 100% scum, where as Yos in my eyes is 95% scum by that I mean.

M4yhem is either Alien and telling the truth with regards his intended kill last night.

or

M4yhem is Borg and claiming Alien in a bid to get us to lynch Yos.

If it's the latter then there is an element of doubt over Yos, which means he could still be a townie. The Borg could have targeted Yos at any stage whilst the Worf role was alive, thus thinking he may be in the opposite group but actually a townie, this is unlikely but still possible considering the lack of kills. It is as likely as the two groups taking down the same player twice in the game.

Night 1 - Twito was killed. The possible outcomes here are Borg killed and Alien targeted Borg. Alien killed and Borg targeted Alien. Alien and Borg both killed Twito. Borg killed and Alien targeted person Worf protected. Alien killed and Borg targeted person Worf protected. I think it's even more unlikely LG - the Worf blocked the killer, mind it's still possible.

Night 2 - Smashy was killed. The same theories apply here as they did to Twito as LG is alive.

Night 3 - Fircoal was killed. Outcomes here are Borg killed and Alien hit a Borg, Alien killed and Borg hit an Alien, Both scum groups hit Fircoal, M4yhem did press Fircoal hard that day aswell similar to Yos pushing LG the previous day.

Night 4 - Jack was killed. Borg obviously killed him, whether Jack was the earlier blocked hit I'm unsure of, no one seems to have fingered Jack much during the game, mind we've had so many quick wagons, the scum haven't had to work hard to blend in. Alien either didn't send hit in extremely unlikely or targeted a Borg, very likely.

To summarise I think there's way to much doubt on Yos compared to M4yehm. It's easy for M4yhem to come out and claim Alien straight off and claim a guilty on Yos, he wasn't under a great deal pressure, what one vote? The Borg and Aliens are both pretty much going to know the Aliens hit a Borg last night but it's just as possible that M4yehm was aware of Yos being supposed scum from Night 1, if they targeted him then, chances are he may have had Worf protection. The scum group would then assume Yos as being a rival scum. Anyway I'm rambling but I'm 100% M4yhem is scum and probably 70% he is Borg. Yos I'd say is probably 65% Alien, 30% Borg and 5% Town. Being as I'm more sure of M4yhem I think he's the probable Borg.

vote m4yhem

[Jalyn]

Those are not the possibilities.

The Aliens could not have targetted Borg until last night, unless they actually forgot to send in a night kill last night, which I don't think anyone is seriously considering. There is only one night kill protection per group. The Aliens missed their kill last night, meaning that that used up the Borg's one night kill protection.

The options are:
Night One:
1. Borg & Alien both target Twito
2. Borg target Twito, Alien target someone livingod protected
3. Alien target Twito, Borg target someone livingod protected
4. Alien target Twito, Borg target Alien

Night Two:
1. Borg & Alien both target Smashy
2. Borg target Smashy, Alien target somone livingod protected
3. Alien target Smashy, Borg target someone livingod protected
4. Alien target Smashy, Borg target Alien

Night Three:
1. Borg & Alien both target Fircoal
2. Alien target Fircoal, Borg target Alien

Night Four:
1. Borg target Jack, Alien target Borg

For Yos' "M4yhem is a Borg who just THINKS that I'm an Alien" scenario to be true, the Borg would have had to have targetted an Alien on Night 1 or 2 and Yos on the other night. The Alien that they targetted couldn't have been Jack or M4yhem would know, from the fact that Jack turned out to be an Alien that Yos was probably protected. Then they would have two living players that they had been unable to target and M4yhem would have flipped a coin to determine which one he was going to gambit to get lynched. This is not impossible, but it's not likely.

If we lynch town today, we'll be at 3t-3a-4b going into night. The alien off a borg and the borg off... either alien or town.
So it's either 3t-2a-3b or 2t-3a-3b.

We lynch an Alien, we go into night at 4t-2a-4b. The alien off a borg and the borg off ... either alien or town.
So it's either 4t-1a-3b or 3t-2a-3b

Can someone that actually runs stats show me which of these two circumstances is better, because I'm not sure.

The other thing I'm wondering is if it would actually make sense, for the Aliens, if Yos is town and M4yhem is Borg (note a BIG if), for one of them to come out and say so. They could also give us the Borg that they know , bring the unknown Borg to two.

Or maybe I just REALLY want to see the dueling Alien claims that I expected when I saw Yosarian2 had posted.

[Nightfall]

Votes:m4yhem

and backhands the people voting Yos today.
I guess we know roughly where to start looking for m4yhem's partners.

[Nightfall]

unvote

Vote : m4yhem

[Kelly Chen]

Vote count

3 - Yosarian2 (M4yhem, Battle Mage, spectrumvoid)
3 - M4yhem (Yosarian2, theopor_COD, Nightfall)
2 - Battle Mage (milkman, Akbar)
1 - Nightfall (Jalyn)

not voting: ~N9V~
vacant: TheJiveMachine

Deadline: Wed May 2

With 11 alive and 10 present it takes 6 votes to toss someone into the steel!

I am seeking a replacement for TheJiveMachine.

Friday

morning

I will prod everyone whose last post was

Sunday or earlier

.

I'll take special requests as always.

[Yosarian2]

Can someone that actually runs stats show me which of these two circumstances is better, because I'm not sure.

It's also worth mentioning that if M4yhem's a scum who really thinks I'm in the other scum group, they might kill me tonight. I'd gladly soak up a nightkill if it means we'd finally get to lynch ONE scum.

If I'm still alive tommorow, and you want to go after me then based on m4yhem's claim or whatever, then go for it. But I think it's clear that m4yhem is the lynch for today.

For Yos' "M4yhem is a Borg who just THINKS that I'm an Alien" scenario to be true, the Borg would have had to have targetted an Alien on Night 1 or 2 and Yos on the other night. The Alien that they targetted couldn't have been Jack or M4yhem would know, from the fact that Jack turned out to be an Alien that Yos was probably protected. Then they would have two living players that they had been unable to target and M4yhem would have flipped a coin to determine which one he was going to gambit to get lynched. This is not impossible, but it's not likely.

It's not that unlikely. After all, we know that the borg must have been blocked at least once during night 1 and 2, either by the worf piece protecting a player or roleblocking a scum. And it's quite reasonable to think that both the doc and the scum targeted me the same night; I'm one of the more experenced/higher profile players in this game, and I tend to think I would be a logical choice for night 1 or night 2 doc protection.