Mafia 59: Hell on Earth - Game over!

[Jalyn]

So you recognize the stats question but have no comment on it? Simple question, really, is it better for the town to lynch an Alien or a townie, by the numbers? I don't do stats.

And you've missed answering the "of the two players that M4yhem would have had to choose between, why did he decide that you were the one that was scum?"

[Jalyn]

Also, M4yhem, what information are you willing to give us about your night kills?

[milkman]

It only makes sense to lynch the confirmed scum first.

Vote: m4yhem

this way we can really see what group m4yhem is in, and get a clearer picture of the game state.

I also want to know your nightkills, M4yhem.

[Battle Mage]

ah-the prodigal scum has returned! unfortunately you have just made it blatantly obvious that you are Yosarian's scumbuddy-presumably in the Borg Camp.
To this end my vote stands, and i highly reccommend the rest of the town choose to lynch the Borg Yos over Alien M4yh3m.
BM

It only makes sense to lynch the confirmed scum first.

Vote: m4yhem

this way we can really see what group m4yhem is in, and get a clearer picture of the game state.

I also want to know your nightkills, M4yhem.

[Battle Mage]

are you serious!? you have neglected to recognise the difficulty of the scenario here, by voting for the likely Alien, and ignoring the likely Borg.
whilst i realise that M4yh3m MAY be lying, it seems logical to kill the most likely Borg first (Yos) whose weak defence has confirmed my suspicions.
I'd also go as far to say the following People are Borg and Alien at this point:

Borg Alien
Milkman M4yh3m
Nightfall
Yosarian

Votes:m4yhem

and backhands the people voting Yos today.
I guess we know roughly where to start looking for m4yhem's partners.

[Battle Mage]

note that 2 of the other 3 scum are: Akbar and N9V, but im not sure which team they belong to now...

[M4yhem]

Theopor- Why would I risk my life to take down Yos if I had any doubts at all about his scumminess? The simple answer is, I wouldn’t. My actions really only make any kind of sense if you assume I am certain that Yos is scum.

And if Yos is scum, why is he lying to you? Surely it’s obvious...Yos knows that he can’t be a more alien alien than I am, because I have access to facts he doesn’t. So, he’s trying a complete denial, relying on his skills at argument to get him through.

But the fact remains, he’s lying. I know he is scum. I would only claim scum myself if I had something to gain; the death of a rival scum.

You can try to make this seem like a desperate bid for survival if you like- but that’s clearly stupid. By claiming scum, no matter what type, I have assured my death at the hands of the other scum tonight. Which makes it pointless to vote for me, btw. I’m a dead man posting. There are many other, better things I could have done to get out of trouble- I’ve argued myself out of a lynch before in this game and I only had two votes on me at the time. The situation wasn’t that desperate.

Town- It makes sense for you to lynch the borg and not the alien today. By keeping the numbers of scum even, you are making sure that the scum have to concentrate on each other instead of you.

Jalyn- I’m not going to tell you all my nightkill choices. You might be able to use that information to find my partners. The important part is, we tried to kill Yos last night. Decide if that fits with your calculations and then vote accordingly.

[~N9V~]

Battle Mage, why are you so sure that I am scum? We have two confirmed scum now. M4yhem is Alien, and Yos is Borg. That is if M4yhem is telling the truth in the first place. I think it's safer to kill Yos, and then M4yhem. Because if the numbers are 3-2 like they will be after this night no matter who gets lynched, it's better than a possible 3-1 situation for the town. That means that there are 8 people left: 3 Borg, 1 Alien, 1 Newt, and 3 Townies. That would put it into a lynch or lose situation. Yos is the safer lynch today.

Vote: Yos2

[~N9V~]

Let me clear that up better. We lynch M4yhem today, and he is Alien, that leaves it to a 4-2. Yos is killed and turns out to be Borg, its then 3-2. And Alien targets whoevr and turns out to be alien, then it's 3-1.

With the same theory of scum groups as above, we lynch yos, and its 3-3. M4yhem dies, 3-2, and someone else could even it up 2-2.

Also, I say it's a safer bet if the Newt doesn't veiw anyone tonight.

[Kelly Chen]

Vote count

4 - M4yhem (Yosarian2, theopor_COD, Nightfall, milkman)
4 - Yosarian2 (M4yhem, Battle Mage, spectrumvoid, ~N9V~)
1 - Battle Mage (Akbar)
1 - Nightfall (Jalyn)

not voting: no one!
vacant: TheJiveMachine

With 11 alive and 10 present it takes 6 votes to toss someone into the steel!

I am seeking a replacement for TheJiveMachine.

Deadline: Wed May 2

Friday

morning

I will prod everyone whose last post was Sunday or earlier.

I'll take special requests as always.

[spectrumvoid]

unvote, vote m4yhem

Lynch -1 guys.

I still don't see the necessity for us to try to predict who is of which scum group since lynching scum is good. And I don't think we have enough information to do a successful prediction.

I also do not believe mafia is a stats game, so I disagree with the running of stats part. However, I am voting m4yhem instead of Yos purely because I have decided that it's safer to lynch the claimed scum. This is in the light of reading the Yos might not be scummy posts.

[Jalyn]

unvote vote:Yosarian2

Mod, what would happen if we had a deadlocked tie vote?

[Kelly Chen]

No majority prior to deadline is No Lynch.

That's my usual policy, looks like I forgot to write it anywhere.

[Battle Mage]

i totally agree with your logic here. I still think you are scum, but i think you are more likely to be Alien, (due to your vote, and general confidence in M4yh3m) which makes you a pretty low priority for lynching atm.
i also agree with you about the Newt.
@SV-wtf are you doing? if M4yh3m gets killed now, you are so moving onto my scum-list.

we really need someone to hammer Yos now imho, although if M4yh3ms claim is genuine, the Borg may hammer M4yh3m first.

BM

Battle Mage, why are you so sure that I am scum? We have two confirmed scum now. M4yhem is Alien, and Yos is Borg. That is if M4yhem is telling the truth in the first place. I think it's safer to kill Yos, and then M4yhem. Because if the numbers are 3-2 like they will be after this night no matter who gets lynched, it's better than a possible 3-1 situation for the town. That means that there are 8 people left: 3 Borg, 1 Alien, 1 Newt, and 3 Townies. That would put it into a lynch or lose situation. Yos is the safer lynch today.

Vote: Yos2

[Jalyn]

i totally agree with your logic here. I still think you are scum, but i think you are more likely to be Alien, (due to your vote, and general confidence in M4yh3m) which makes you a pretty low priority for lynching atm.
i also agree with you about the Newt.
@SV-wtf are you doing? if M4yh3m gets killed now, you are so moving onto my scum-list.

we really need someone to hammer Yos now imho, although if M4yh3ms claim is genuine, the Borg may hammer M4yh3m first.

BM

Battle Mage, why are you so sure that I am scum? We have two confirmed scum now. M4yhem is Alien, and Yos is Borg. That is if M4yhem is telling the truth in the first place. I think it's safer to kill Yos, and then M4yhem. Because if the numbers are 3-2 like they will be after this night no matter who gets lynched, it's better than a possible 3-1 situation for the town. That means that there are 8 people left: 3 Borg, 1 Alien, 1 Newt, and 3 Townies. That would put it into a lynch or lose situation. Yos is the safer lynch today.

Vote: Yos2

Spectrumvoid has seemed Borg scum to me for her last few posts. N9V, I agree, is probably Alien scum. I've currently got Nightfall pegged as the third Borg. I'm not sure on the last of each group.

[Battle Mage]

Borg
Milkman
Nightfall
Yosarian
SV

Alien
M4yh3m
N9V
Akbar

Town
Jalyn
theo
thejivemachine
battle mage

this is my current table. if im right, i claim the match ball after the game

[Yosarian2]

So you recognize the stats question but have no comment on it? Simple question, really, is it better for the town to lynch an Alien or a townie, by the numbers? I don't do stats.

Well, the point I was making is that you can't really judge the numbers in that kind of stasticial way when the most important question for the town really is is "will the scum nightkill each other tonight"; the normal of "town is better off with an odd number" type of statistical math dosn't really apply here at all, I don't think. I tend to think that if there's a dead alian today, and if the alians do know who one of the borg are, they would be basically forced to kill that person tonight, which would definatly be in the town's favor; wheras lynching a townie today would make it harder for the town to come back and win later even if the number of scum get whittled down.

And you've missed answering the "of the two players that M4yhem would have had to choose between, why did he decide that you were the one that was scum?"

(shrug) I donno. M4yhem always thinks I'm scum. And the fact that he made the claim pointed at me might have something to do with the fact I attacked him today.

Like I pointed out before, he seems to have been assuming I was scum with no logical reason since at least yesterday, which does not fit with the timing he's claimed.

[Yosarian2]

whilst i realise that M4yh3m MAY be lying, it seems logical to kill the most likely Borg first (Yos) whose weak defence has confirmed my suspicions.

Why would you believe that M4yhem is an alien and not a borg? Lying and claiming to be a scum of the smaller scum group is quite a common scum tactic; I won with that tactic in Jungle Republic, in fact. And M4yhem's own actions pretty clearly don't fit with his claim, at all.

[Battle Mage]

frankly i read your reaction to his claim, and it was WEAK. So, of the 2 of you, i chose to believe him. Dont worry, if we're wrong, im sure M4yh3m will be NKed or lynched tomorrow. there is only so long a confessed scum can last.

whilst i realise that M4yh3m MAY be lying, it seems logical to kill the most likely Borg first (Yos) whose weak defence has confirmed my suspicions.

Why would you believe that M4yhem is an alien and not a borg? Lying and claiming to be a scum of the smaller scum group is quite a common scum tactic; I won with that tactic in Jungle Republic, in fact. And M4yhem's own actions pretty clearly don't fit with his claim, at all.

[Yosarian2]

Theopor- Why would I risk my life to take down Yos if I had any doubts at all about his scumminess?

Risk your life? You were already doomed. I figured out you were scum, proved it based on your actions, and I HAD you. So you did the only thing you could do to buy some time make sure someone who's not in your scum group was killed today.

And if Yos is scum, why is he lying to you? Surely it’s obvious...Yos knows that he can’t be a more alien alien than I am, because I have access to facts he doesn’t. So, he’s trying a complete denial, relying on his skills at argument to get him through.

And if you're scum, you would by lying for the exact same reason; the only thing that could possibly prevent you from being lynched today would be an alien claim, and a claimed result on someone else as Borg.

But the fact remains, he’s lying. I know he is scum. I would only claim scum myself if I had something to gain; the death of a rival scum.

Sure you would risk yourself for someone you think to be in the other scum group, but

that dosn't prove which scum group you're in.

. At all.

You can try to make this seem like a desperate bid for survival if you like- but that’s clearly stupid. By claiming scum, no matter what type, I have assured my death at the hands of the other scum tonight.

Why would any scum waste a nightkill on someone's who's claimed scum and is thus inevetably going to be lynched? If the town dosn't lynch you today, they'll have to lynch you tommorow, that's clear. Let's do it now, find out which scum group you're from, and that will give us good information about where to go tommorow.

Town- It makes sense for you to lynch the borg and not the alien today. By keeping the numbers of scum even, you are making sure that the scum have to concentrate on each other instead of you.

Which is exactally why you would lie and claim to be an alien, even if you're a borg.

And you still haven't answered my other point. If you didn't try to kill me until last night, why were you so sure I was scum yesterday, with abosultly no reason to be? In fact, it's pretty obveous that the scum would only kill someone they thought to be scum, and pretty much no one thought I was scum yesterday, so why would your scum group want to target me last night? Dosn't make any sense. No, your scum group probably targeted me night 1, because you seem to think I'm a threat as a player, and failed, and you've just assumed I'm scum ever since.

[Battle Mage]

if the kill on you failed, that means you must be scum, surely?

No, your scum group probably targeted me night 1, because you seem to think I'm a threat as a player, and failed, and you've just assumed I'm scum ever since.

[Yosarian2]

frankly i read your reaction to his claim, and it was WEAK. So, of the 2 of you, i chose to believe him. Dont worry, if we're wrong, im sure M4yh3m will be NKed or lynched tomorrow. there is only so long a confessed scum can last.

Again, why would you believe him? He has absolutly no reason to tell you the truth, especally when it comes to the question of which scum group he's in. He's a convincing player, and it took me a little while to figure out what exactally he was trying to pull, but that dosn't mean he's not BSing you.

[Yosarian2]

if the kill on you failed, that means you must be scum, surely?

No, your scum group probably targeted me night 1, because you seem to think I'm a threat as a player, and failed, and you've just assumed I'm scum ever since.

No; if they tried to kill me night 1 or night 2 and the kill failed, it's quite likely that Worf saved my life; as Jalyn pointed out, the Borg most likely had one of their kills stopped by Worf either night 1 or night 2.

[Jalyn]

(shrug) I donno. M4yhem always thinks I'm scum. And the fact that he made the claim pointed at me might have something to do with the fact I attacked him today.

Like I pointed out before, he seems to have been assuming I was scum with no logical reason since at least yesterday, which does not fit with the timing he's claimed.

And you still haven't answered my other point. If you didn't try to kill me until last night, why were you so sure I was scum yesterday, with abosultly no reason to be? In fact, it's pretty obveous that the scum would only kill someone they thought to be scum, and pretty much no one thought I was scum yesterday, so why would your scum group want to target me last night? Dosn't make any sense. No, your scum group probably targeted me night 1, because you seem to think I'm a threat as a player, and failed, and you've just assumed I'm scum ever since.

Is it just me, or is there a basic discrepancy in these two quotes?

I did not point out that the Borg most likely missed a kill because of a livingod protection in the first two days. I suggested that it was a possibility. I now rather think that the Borg hit Alien during the first two nights and then both they and the Alien targetted Fircoal on Night three.

[Yosarian2]

I did not point out that the Borg most likely missed a kill because of a livingod protection in the first two days. I suggested that it was a possibility. I now rather think that the Borg hit Alien during the first two nights and then both they and the Alien targetted Fircoal on Night three.

No, if the Borg hit aliens the first two nights, there would have been a dead alien night 2. Each scum group only gets one protection.

And what do you mean a discrepency? It's the same point. He claims he only targeted me last night, but that does not fit with his actions yesterday nor does it make a lot of sense.