Newbie 1497 (Game Over)

[Tr1ckster]

@Beli

Several people have expressed intent to lynch you and you currently have one vote on you. I believe it is to your benefit to catch up and inform us of your thoughts. What are your current thoughts on a Madonna lynch?

[Tr1ckster]

@Not_Mafia

What are your thoughts about a Beli lynch?

[Aquanim]

@Aquanim

I read 517 and it's surrounding posts as claims that you were almost certain BBT was scum.
Was I incorrect in reading them that way? If not, what made you think Beli was scummy enough to unvote BBT? Or has your read on BBT changed

BBT's listpost up there is giving me pause for thought. I wouldn't regard it so much as an unvote as me no longer endorsing a hammer until I get my thoughs straight though. BBT is still at best top 2 scumread for me.

Still getting through the Madonna stuff, there's a lot of it. My initial impression though is that a fair bit of your scumread has come about because of failure to communicate effectively between the two of you, not her doing scummy things. Dunno if that's all it is though, haven't finished reading yet. Not happy with a Madonna lynch at this point though.

[Not_Mafia]

omg guys stahp, so much posting. I will catch up on all of this later. Initial thoughts, I don't like Madonna's hopping on to the Belisarius wagon with 48 hours to go and Trickster, I'm interested in the composition of a Belisarious wagon but I don not want a lynch on him

[Aquanim]

I don't think I'm willing to vote Beli just yet. I'm not ready to lynch someone on the policy of inactivity.

No, I don't think I see a reason for him to be town, but I don't see a reason for him to be scum, either.

It's not entirely on his inactivity, I think his posted reads don't really reflect a serious and consistent townie mindset. That being said, if I do end up wanting to lynch him, it'll be because I decide I don't like the BBT and Madonna wagons and can't find anything better than Beli, rather than there being a totally slam-dunk case on Beli.

[Aquanim]

@Not_Mafia

: What don't you like about Madonna hopping on (or, in fact, creating) the Belisarius wagon?

[Tr1ckster]

@Aquanim

I read 517 and it's surrounding posts as claims that you were almost certain BBT was scum.
Was I incorrect in reading them that way? If not, what made you think Beli was scummy enough to unvote BBT? Or has your read on BBT changed

BBT's listpost up there is giving me pause for thought. I wouldn't regard it so much as an unvote as me no longer endorsing a hammer until I get my thoughs straight though. BBT is still at best top 2 scumread for me.

Still getting through the Madonna stuff, there's a lot of it. My initial impression though is that a fair bit of your scumread has come about because of failure to communicate effectively between the two of you, not her doing scummy things. Dunno if that's all it is though, haven't finished reading yet. Not happy with a Madonna lynch at this point though.

Who would be your other top scumread? And what would have put them above BBT who you seemed to be certain was scum?

Also, what changed about your read on Madonna between here and here:

I think I'd prefer to lynch Belisarius or the Tynn slot over Madonna but I'm not vehemently against any of those three.

_______

I don't think I'm willing to vote Beli just yet. I'm not ready to lynch someone on the policy of inactivity.

No, I don't think I see a reason for him to be town, but I don't see a reason for him to be scum, either.

It's not entirely on his inactivity, I think his posted reads don't really reflect a serious and consistent townie mindset. That being said, if I do end up wanting to lynch him, it'll be because I decide I don't like the BBT and Madonna wagons and can't find anything better than Beli, rather than there being a totally slam-dunk case on Beli.

You were practically leading the BBT wagon earlier. Why would you decide you don't like his wagon?

[Aquanim]

Well, I've got through #476 (the most recent Tr1ckster case on Madonna, I think?) and I'm still not keen on a Madonna lynch. If someone have particular instances of Madonna's arguments why Tr1ckster was scum which they think are scummy I'd like to see further discussion on that topic.

Spoiler: On #476

As for the play, id est voting for someone who has casted their vote elsewhere already, is a safe move since the votee would have to change their vote to retaliate, and that is bad because a) retaliatory voting are frowned upon, as is b) vote-changing, so the unfortunate soul is stuck with a vote on them with no good method of responding on Day 1.

It is a good, repurcussion-free vote

which needs little explanation, but carries a little more weight than an entirely random one.

I thought the purpose of RVS votes was to create repercussions to get the thread flowing?

As I read it, Madonna's post could be rewritten "It is a nice and repercussion-free vote...", referring to the fact that if I were scum randomvoting for BBT it would be a good place for me to put my vote without repercussions. Not that it is a good vote for town.

What, mafia do not pretend to be town and do town things? They obviously have a game to play during the Day too.

This really bugs me. You called someone scummy and then when I said that their play was actually more town-motivated, you responded with this. ^^

Not sure I see the problem. Scum do in fact do some towny-looking things to look towny.

Town versus town arguments is a good thing. I do not know who else is town, and neither do the other townies. We all should suspect each other as much as possible and take everyone with a grain of salt. If a townie gets lynched D1, it is because D1 is a bad hand, not because of town arguments. Arguments are all we got to find scum.

Forced assumption she's town. I don't like it.

Meh. If she'd been more exact about "well, this applies only if I'm town" the post would hardly have looked any better.

RVS only exists because there are few givens, and would not be a thing if people were more informed, ergo Aquanim (and I) each decided to vote on already active people because they are demonstrably here and thus liable to talk. Is your idea, Tr1ckster, to wait on the latecomers versus starting discussion? If we all random voted, we could not discuss anything; people could shrug off everything and go, "Eh."

Didn't you just jump on Aqua and call him scum for voting someone who had already voted?

Why couldn't we discuss anything if we all random voted? Why are you protecting latecomers?

Jumping on me for that, even if hypocritical, did start the first real conversation of the game and as such I'm inclined to give it a pass.

Here's one of my major problems with the early game D1:

Spoiler:

VOTE: Aquanim

1. Aquanim was the first person to vote on someone who already voted for another. What is BlueBloodedToffee to do in response?

I did not like how he voted.

Aquanim, I voted for you, a person whom had voted for another already; the answer is self-evident. Your assertion may not be disagreeable, but it also deflects mine while asking for validation. This is an acknowledgment that you and I are both voting in calculated moves versus random Day 1 votes. Yes, our method is going to get things interesting, but it can simultaneously be a power/safe play, and that was what I was calling out.

I think it puts a person who has already voted in an awkward position of not being able to respond easily. One can argue it is just a random vote, but if BlueBloodedToffee (BBT) had not voted, they at least would have the option to retaliate vote without having to justify a vote change later. So it is a stronger "random" vote than going for another person who had not voted.

So she doesn't like Aqua's vote for BBT because BBT had already voted. But in voting for Aqua (who has already voted) she does the same thing he does.
But.. wait..

Aquanim, I voted for you, a person whom had voted for another already; the answer is self-evident. Your assertion may not be disagreeable, but it also deflects mine while asking for validation. This is an acknowledgment that you and I are both voting in calculated moves versus random Day 1 votes. Yes,

our method

is going to get things interesting, but it can simultaneously be a power/safe play, and that was what I was calling out.

You were calling out

both

of your play?

She

admits

to playing like Aqua and still thinks what he did was scummy?

to agree with Aquanim.

Not only this, but she

agrees

with Aqua. Why did she put her vote there?

Eh... I think Madonna's position here makes some sense. Voting for someone who's already voted is a more powerful vote; this could suit both scum and town agenda. She decided to put a little pressure on me (with a powerful vote of her own) to discern my alignment, since my "powerful" vote made her a little paranoid. And for the record, my vote on BBT to start with wasn't entirely random; I looked at BBT and Tynn's first posts and thought "I want to vote one of these two to get the game started, and BBT's post is maybe 1% more likely to come from scum? whatever let's go with that".

At this point of going through to respond to your questions, I am going to have to tell you, Tr1ckster, that quite a few of your questions are lacking in substance and do not address the content of what you have quoted.

It's early D1. Everything was going to lack substance. I don't like how you dodged my question here.

She pointed out that your question wasn't quite accurately representing what she had said. Again OK by me, just a failure of communication between the two of you.

Posting to say I am typing up a response to Aquanim's response (#225) to my concerns and going down the line. Initial read-through basically says I am too eager to look for fires where there are not any, which is cool, because I think I got an idea, got emotionally invested in it, and I ran away to get some distance and cool my head.

And
UNVOTE:

Ok. An unvote.

I think Madonna's post accurately reflected her eariler thoughts; she thought I was possible scum because of how my dynamic first vote might suit a scum agenda, got a bit carried away with the notion and didn't think about the possible town explanations, then thought about it rationally later and realised it really wasn't enough for a sucmread.

Hey look, it is a not-at-all useful read list. /shrugs

1) Aquanim: Null. Has generally made good town moves, but it is noticeable he moves when it is safest for him and someone else is feeling the heat.
2) BlueBloodedToffee:

Scum.

Pushed really hard for a case against Thor665 using logic that should have condemned himself as well. Unable to stand by his own arguments or see contradictions, and huffs off when he cannot answer things directly.
3) HempHHH: Leaning town. Looks great on paper for a scumread, but no arguments, confusing voting, and ease at which HempHHH garnered votes made me wonder if he is just too good to be true.
4) Belisarius: Null. Seeing as his predecessors post almost nothing and voted nowhere, he is in very good, very vague position.
5) Madonna: omg scum all the way /bias
6) Not_Mafia: Weak

scum.

Did himself no favors in the beginning, and changed his tune as soon as he got into hot water. Has been making some helpful posts, but it also feels like he is running interference than doing his own work.
7) Thor665: Thinking town. Has made a lot of plays I find reasonable and logical, but I am going to assume the best IC gives a good game, scum or town. I dislike strong reads.
8) Tr1ckster: Weak

scum.

Despite having presented a leaky case against him, he has done some things which made me pause and hmm. His constant misunderstandings and an inability to keep his vote tied anywhere gives the impression he does not mind much where his vote goes.
9) Tynn: Null. Needs to post like a mofo is the concensus, as not posting is not that helpful and perhaps scummy, but has generally made good points with her posts and has done nothing off-kilter.

She's got scum in her reads list..

Why won't she place her vote?

I really, really don't like it when people unvote without somewhere better to vote.

IDK... Madonna's not voting but she is being pretty clear about where her reads are at, which is a significant part of the usefulness of a vote. Not having an explicit vote down doesn't bother me as much as it does you (and Thor).

________

Anyways. This is far from an exhaustive analysis.

But this is why I think Madonna is probably the best D1 lynch:

She's not posting now that she's under suspicion.

People sometimes don't have time to post. Meh.

She's used a whole lot of AtE words such as "appease" and "humor" among other things.

I don't agree this is scummy.

She's contradicted herself in several places, including the Aquanim Affair at Day Start.

I think the contradiction is not hugely important and was quite plausibly in the name of starting discussion.

She made several crummy arguments against me.

eh... I think the arguments were poor, but not especially scummy. This point could use some more discussion, if you have particular points you think betray a scum mindset.

She unvoted and refused to vote, even though there's a better place for her vote.

This is a little off, but sometimes people get weird ideas in her head. If this was combined with being reluctant to share other information and reads, I'd be far more concerned.

She hasn't really interacted with anyone but myself since Day Start.

In the same way as BBT didn't talk with many people besides me and Thor - because your argument was monopolising her time. And she did have a couple of posts directed at other people (myself, BBT).

She's called BBT scum several times but refuses to vote for him unless it puts him at L-1.

IDK what that's about. Maybe just whimsy.

And possibly other things. I personally don't see a scummier players, especially since BBT is moving closer and closer to town on my reads list.

I just wish he would start scumhunting himself instead of merely reacting to his accusers, though I understand that it's very hard to do that from his position.

I think a LOT of this scumread is resulting from Tr1ckster and Madonna failing to communicate effectively and misunderstanding each other, into a tunnel and confirmation bias, rather than anything particularly scummy that's been done.

[Aquanim]

Who would be your other top scumread? And what would have put them above BBT who you seemed to be certain was scum?

I'm trying to say that BBT and Belisarius are currently vying for my number one scumread spot.

Also, what changed about your read on Madonna between here and here:

I think I'd prefer to lynch Belisarius or the Tynn slot over Madonna but I'm not vehemently against any of those three.

_______

I don't think I'm willing to vote Beli just yet. I'm not ready to lynch someone on the policy of inactivity.

No, I don't think I see a reason for him to be town, but I don't see a reason for him to be scum, either.

It's not entirely on his inactivity, I think his posted reads don't really reflect a serious and consistent townie mindset. That being said, if I do end up wanting to lynch him, it'll be because I decide I don't like the BBT and Madonna wagons and can't find anything better than Beli, rather than there being a totally slam-dunk case on Beli.

Read some more of Madonna's ISO and became even less happy about lynching her. She seems, well... unafraid of the spotlight and unafraid to share and push her point of view (even if in many instances I consider her argument flawed). Those two things don't speak of a scummy mindset to me.

You were practically leading the BBT wagon earlier. Why would you decide you don't like his wagon?

Doubts
My gut read when I read BBT's listpost was "that looks kind of towny". I'm still mulling over whether I think he's capable of producing that as scum. Sometimes my gut is wrong.

[Tr1ckster]

To be completely honest, Aqua, I was doubting my scum read on Madonna after making that case on her, but I decided to make it and see how everyone reacted and stuff, see if I could generate reads from it. But I really don't like her 492, nor the fact that she hasn't responded to the people who don't question her directly. I pointed out several posts for her to respond to and she ignored them.

Anyways, I see your point. I read your response to my most recent argument, and I'm willing to unvote for now.

UNVOTE: Madonna

[Belisarius]

Several people have expressed intent to lynch you and you currently have one vote on you. I believe it is to your benefit to catch up and inform us of your thoughts. What are your current thoughts on a Madonna lynch?

I'm caught up, and less interested in a Madonna lynch. I'd still much rather have you.

Is the first sentence meant to be a threat? Lay on, MacDuff, and damned be he who first cries "hold, enough!"

@Aquanim and BBT

: Where the crispy crunchy Christ did you get the notion that I was attacking Tynn? Let me refresh your memory. Here is what I said about her slot, verbatim and with post reference.

Spoiler: tynn

Liking the catch of Tr1cks's cogdis in #113, I missed it entirely.
Use of language shows closeness to the positions she's taking. This is a fairly sparse ISO, so all I really have to go on is the McClish method, which has relatively few hits (There tends to be a lot of points in a McClish analysis of even a short statement, which is why running it on an entire game is an all-day job). The most significant point I've seen is that she uses the word "conversation" rather than "discussion;" the latter tends to be used to refer to a more adversarial atmosphere, whereas "conversation" indicates a more pleasant and friendly outlook on the words being exchanged. This is not in keeping with someone who is feeling hunted.
"Just say" in #166: this usually indicates information is being omitted
Use of "these" instead of "those" indicates a feeling of closeness. Likewise with "this" instead of "that." Tynn is using "these" and "this" exclusively, which is a hallmark of honest speech.

Yet somehow, you both seem to be on the same page on this. Lucy, you got some 'splainin to do.

@Just Aquanim

: You know how some people bite their fingernails when they're nervous? Thus the "interesting" and "takes notes." This repetition is outside of Tricks's baseline mode of speech and that makes it suspect.

[Belisarius]

Oh, yes, and when Knell asked why I was reading Tynn as town, I confirmed that I was in fact reading Tynn as town. So how the fuck was I attacking her? I couldn't have been less aggressive to that slot without actually buying her a beer.

[theelkspeaks]

I'm still reading the thread, but I've read everything since I joined, and in response to that, I'd like to ask the mod for the extension that I'm allowed to, as well as do the following

UNVOTE

Since I haven't gotten to finish reading the thread, I'm unsure if I agree with my previous incarnation's vote, so I'll remove it until I finish catching up, then place a vote.

And yes, "elk" is a perfectly wonderful shortening of my name! Feel free to call me that for short!

[Tr1ckster]

I'm still reading the thread, but I've read everything since I joined, and in response to that, I'd like to ask the mod for the extension that I'm allowed to, as well as do the following

UNVOTE

Since I haven't gotten to finish reading the thread, I'm unsure if I agree with my previous incarnation's vote, so I'll remove it until I finish catching up, then place a vote.

And yes, "elk" is a perfectly wonderful shortening of my name! Feel free to call me that for short!

Cool!

I'd love to hear your thoughts on your previous incarnation.

Also, people usually put unvotes on a seperate line as it makes it easier for the mod to catch as they're making the vote counts.

[Aquanim]

Several people have expressed intent to lynch you and you currently have one vote on you. I believe it is to your benefit to catch up and inform us of your thoughts. What are your current thoughts on a Madonna lynch?

I'm caught up, and less interested in a Madonna lynch. I'd still much rather have you.

Is the first sentence meant to be a threat? Lay on, MacDuff, and damned be he who first cries "hold, enough!"

@Aquanim and BBT

: Where the crispy crunchy Christ did you get the notion that I was attacking Tynn? Let me refresh your memory. Here is what I said about her slot, verbatim and with post reference.

Spoiler: tynn

Liking the catch of Tr1cks's cogdis in #113, I missed it entirely.
Use of language shows closeness to the positions she's taking. This is a fairly sparse ISO, so all I really have to go on is the McClish method, which has relatively few hits (There tends to be a lot of points in a McClish analysis of even a short statement, which is why running it on an entire game is an all-day job). The most significant point I've seen is that she uses the word "conversation" rather than "discussion;" the latter tends to be used to refer to a more adversarial atmosphere, whereas "conversation" indicates a more pleasant and friendly outlook on the words being exchanged. This is not in keeping with someone who is feeling hunted.
"Just say" in #166: this usually indicates information is being omitted
Use of "these" instead of "those" indicates a feeling of closeness. Likewise with "this" instead of "that." Tynn is using "these" and "this" exclusively, which is a hallmark of honest speech.

Yet somehow, you both seem to be on the same page on this. Lucy, you got some 'splainin to do.

...Well, that's embarassing. My bad, didn't verify BBT's statement.

@Just Aquanim

: You know how some people bite their fingernails when they're nervous? Thus the "interesting" and "takes notes." This repetition is outside of Tricks's baseline mode of speech and that makes it suspect.

Yeah I actually don't give any kind of a damn about your linguistic voodoo.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

@Aquanim and BBT

: Where the crispy crunchy Christ did you get the notion that I was attacking Tynn?

Wow, that's a pretty bad fail from me. Must have got my notes mixed up, I was using that as a reason for town-reading you! Apologies.

[Belisarius]

Nervous tics are a scientifically established fact of human psychology. Science is the opposite of voodoo.

[Thor665]

Given how much he's been lurking while his professed townread BBT is headed for the lynch... can anyone tell me a good reason they think Belisarius is town?

Does he normally defend his town reads in some manner?
Also, has he been active elsewhere thus proving he's avoiding posting here?

@Thor

I wrote you a post about why I think Madonna's scum yesterday and responded to your concerns. Would you explain, if you disagree, what exactly from it you disagree with, and if you agree, what is holding you back from a Madonna vote?

Yes, I could easily go into a post by post and dismiss your case - I just don't see a value to it and the idea of the conversation bores me. I have things I'd rather do than set myself up as a defender of a slot I'm not actually town reading. Let's just leave it at "I am still unimpressed by the Madonna case", okay?

[Thor665]

I'd like to ask the mod for the extension that I'm allowed to

When talking to the mod, it is general decorum to make the communication in bold and otherwise make it stick out. Like so;

@Mod - a request has been made in this quoted text, thanks.

[Aquanim]

I am allowed to quote things from finished previous games, right?

[Aquanim]

That was a serious question. I have some posts from a previous completed game on the site I'd like to quote here, I want to double-check that this is permitted.

[Aquanim]

Given how much he's been lurking while his professed townread BBT is headed for the lynch... can anyone tell me a good reason they think Belisarius is town?

Does he normally defend his town reads in some manner?
Also, has he been active elsewhere thus proving he's avoiding posting here?

I guess it's possible he chooses not to try to stop lynches he thinks are mislynches when he's town. Seems like a bizarre way to play Mafia though.
As for the second, I don't go around stalking people's activity so I couldn't say.

[Tr1ckster]

Looking at the timestamps on Beli's posts, we can see that he has, in fact, been posting elsewhere.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Looking at the timestamps on Beli's posts, we can see that he has, in fact, been posting elsewhere.

What is this supposed to prove? What if he felt like he had nothing to contribute to this thread during that time.

[Belisarius]

Don't forget my active hydras

(Although that makes me look worse, I'm the less active head in both. Still, if you're looking at a data set, look at the whole thing.)