Newbie 1497 (Game Over)

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Re: Beli and quickness to lynch: I previously had a fairly null read on Beli, but the cases presented for him seemed fairly sound to me, which pushed my null read into a scum read. My previous null-read was based on lack of content to judge by, which I then realized was a more scum leaning situation anyone, as active lurking benefits scum. And with as close as we were to deadline, I was trying to ensure we didn't have a no lynch, as I know that lynches are the only way for town to kill Mafia.

His comment about "knowing my butt was on the line" was scummy enough to push him over the edge for me, especially that close to deadline. If we were 3 or more days from deadline, I probably wouldn't have pushed his case so hard or voted him then, as my scumreads were still stronger elsewhere. N_M's inactivity/fluff/lack of content is sending off a persistent scumread for me as well, which is why I named him as another player I'd be willing to pursue since the other players reads of him seemed more wagon-conducive than Aquanim and Knell, who were stronger scumreads for me, as I didn't think there was time before deadline to present a case and form a wagon on either of them, but N_M had a wagon previously.

As for the sheeping, I'm new enough not to have a ton of confidence in my reads, and I admit I was heavily influenced by the cases presented.

Just before you switched your vote, I believe Madonna had 3 votes (including your own vote) and Beli had 3 votes; I may have counted wrong, double check to be sure. In my opinion, either lynch looked as likely to happen as the other, so I'm not sure why you would switch your vote from somebody who was 3rd(?) on your scum-read list to somebody you hadn't even scum-read but voted anyway because you agreed with what everybody else was saying. I understand what you're saying about the no-lynch, but we did have some time left it wasn't like it had to be done immediately. Why did you not try and pursue a Madonna lynch? What made you think a Beli lynch was more likely than a Madonna lynch?

Your point about 'I probably wouldn't have pushed his case so hard' is pretty irrelevant, because you hardly pushed at all, you simply changed your vote. This seems like you are trying to imply that you put significant effort into a Beli case in an attempt to get the lynch and look pro-town; which is pretty far from what actually happened.

What do you make of NM's defence of me against the majority? Is this also scum behaviour or are you just ignoring that part of his contribution so far?

[Thor665]

Why haven't we heard from Thor yet?

Because I'm interested in seeing where all of you flop first.

Thor looks worse to me for his disappearance late day 1

What disappearance late Day 1?

[Tr1ckster]

Because I'm interested in seeing where all of you flop first.

I don't like this. You and NM are both pinging. Why do you care what everyone else thinks before you share your own thoughts?

[Knell]

VOTE: Aquanim

This is probably wrong. But I can always move.

This is based on a parallel thing. Pretty much it feels like he hit 4 birds with one stone, got rid of two people scum reading him while he was town reading one. I'm guilty of the same thing here though. Concretely anyway. That's my thought on the night kill. Problem statement: why would Aqua save BBT? That's the only thing I don't get, he was scum reading him too, it shouldn't really matter to him unless he think he's mislynch bait? Were all the wagons yesterday on town?

[Tr1ckster]

Were all the wagons yesterday on town?

Excluding the NM wagon (I'm not sure about that one) I think this is true. I don't know, but now that I really look at it... Thor's post might have been him trying to scare people off of the NM wagon. Which would support a Thor NM scum team. I see what you mean about Aqua, but I still think he's probably town.

Anyways.. I think in order for scum to have that many wagons on town we'd have to have very influential scum... which rather supports my fear that Thor is scum...

Although.. this is only an assumption that Thor is influential scum.. based on the fact that he's an IC.. has anyone played with Thor as scum before?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Because I'm interested in seeing where all of you flop first.

This sentence strikes me as scummy.

So, you waited for a day and until the thread was 3 pages long before you posted on D1. You're now waiting on D2 to see where everyone else is at first. What could be the possible advantage of doing this..?

That's right. You don't offer anything that people can question you on.

Much like D1, when you decided to join the discussion, you will already have pinpointed somebody that you want to question/go after because of something they have done (In this case, it was NM). Then you'll barge into the thread firing question after question after question and throwing suspicion in the direction of selected person. Because of the way that you do this, it makes it difficult for anybody to actually read anything that you do; everything you do basically looks like pro-town actions and it's difficult for anyone to argue against this, but I'm beginning to wonder now. I assume you're going to wait until you see something that you can jump on for D2 as well, and repeat the same process.

[Thor665]

I don't like this. You and NM are both pinging. Why do you care what everyone else thinks before you share your own thoughts?

You seem to be aware that I'm "influential" yet you cannot think of a reason why, for scumhunting purposes, I'd like to see people state their beliefs before I state mine? I mean, you can't think of any valid reasoning at all here? Really?

So, you waited for a day and until the thread was 3 pages long before you posted on D1. You're now waiting on D2 to see where everyone else is at first. What could be the possible advantage of doing this..?

To get a feel for what people are or are not willing to push.

Much like D1, when you decided to join the discussion, you will already have pinpointed somebody that you want to question/go after because of something they have done (In this case, it was NM). Then you'll barge into the thread firing question after question after question and throwing suspicion in the direction of selected person.

So you agree that I'm likely to show up with strong opinions of my own and push them regardless of if I'm quiet early on...so where's the fire here?

Because of the way that you do this, it makes it difficult for anybody to actually read anything that you do; everything you do basically looks like pro-town actions and it's difficult for anyone to argue against this, but I'm beginning to wonder now. I assume you're going to wait until you see something that you can jump on for D2 as well, and repeat the same process.

Yeah, it's really weird that everything I do bascially looks pro-town - I must be scum.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

So, you waited for a day and until the thread was 3 pages long before you posted on D1. You're now waiting on D2 to see where everyone else is at first. What could be the possible advantage of doing this..?

To get a feel for what people are or are not willing to push.

Much like D1, when you decided to join the discussion, you will already have pinpointed somebody that you want to question/go after because of something they have done (In this case, it was NM). Then you'll barge into the thread firing question after question after question and throwing suspicion in the direction of selected person.

So you agree that I'm likely to show up with strong opinions of my own and push them regardless of if I'm quiet early on...so where's the fire here?

Because of the way that you do this, it makes it difficult for anybody to actually read anything that you do; everything you do basically looks like pro-town actions and it's difficult for anyone to argue against this, but I'm beginning to wonder now. I assume you're going to wait until you see something that you can jump on for D2 as well, and repeat the same process.

Yeah, it's really weird that everything I do bascially looks pro-town - I must be scum.

I feel your first 2 statements contradict each other. You try to get a feel for what people are/are not willing to push...then you come in with strong opinions of your own and push them regardless. What is the point in seeing where everyone else stands if you're going to force your own opinion anyway?

I would hardly call your push on NM early in D1 an individual opinion either, it was clear that pretty much everyone was not happy with how he started the game, you just joined in. Are you waiting for a similar situation to occur on D2?

There is a key word in my last paragraph and also in your last response.

Looks

. Things are not always as they seem.

[Tr1ckster]

You seem to be aware that I'm "influential" yet you cannot think of a reason why, for scumhunting purposes, I'd like to see people state their beliefs before I state mine? I mean, you can't think of any valid reasoning at all here? Really?

Did I say that? Don't claim I said something I didn't say. There may or may not be pro-town reasoning for it, but I'd like to hear it from your lips and not mine. Give me a good reason why waiting to see who you could mislynch today was pro-town.

To get a feel for what people are or are not willing to push.

Right. This is why you're pinging. Now give me pro-town reasoning and I'll back off. Until then:

VOTE: Thor

There is a key word in my last paragraph and also in your last response. Looks. Things are not always as they seem.

Yeah. He used it too. Your argument there is he's "too townie" and invalid.

[Not_Mafia]

And now there's a wagon forming on my largest scumread for reasons I don't agree with, I'm not sure what to make of this. I see motivation as both alignments for waiting until others have commented at daystart, so I find that pretty null and I don't agree Trickster gravitating towards the IC due to having a lack of solid scum reads.

I'm going to somewhat go back on what I said earlier about the Beli wagon, after sleeping on it that Beli wagon grew way too quickly so I do think both scum were on it now for reasons other than PoE because I have a townread on BBT

[Tr1ckster]

There's a wagon forming?

No one has more than one vote on them at this point that I'm aware.

Why is he your biggest scum read?

If he's your biggest scum read, why were you withholding your vote?

Why did you not question him as your largest scum read?

Why don't you agree with the reasons against him?

What made you read BBT as town?

[Not_Mafia]

3 people are scumreading him so yes there is a wagon brewing, don't be glib about him just having one vote, especially after the whole Beli v Trickster thing at the end of d1. You know why I'm scumreading Thor and you know why I'm townreading BBT. And we discussed my push on Thor yesterday. Why are you recycling questions that you know the answer to?

I didn't vote as the final votecount was making me second guess myself and then I came back to this wagon brewing which further made me second guess myself.

And I just stated in the post above yours why I don't agree with yours and BBT's reasoning, I find a late entry to the day null as both alignments have motivation to do it and not having any solid scumreads does not automatically implicate the IC/the strongest player.

[Tr1ckster]

No, I don't know why you're scumreading Thor or why you're townreading BBT. Where did you post this? We asked you why you were scumreading Thor at the end of D1 and to justify a wagon on him and you wouldn't.

And his late entry is not the only reason I'm scumreading him. I believe I've already said why I think Thor looks rather scummy. Why do you assume this is my only reason?

[Tr1ckster]

And if you had already said/explained everything in that post, why did you post it?

[Not_Mafia]

The late entry is BBT's reasoning, are you sure you've been reading the thread

[Tr1ckster]

The late entry is BBT's reasoning, are you sure you've been reading the thread

It is?

I don't like this. You and NM are both pinging. Why do you care what everyone else thinks before you share your own thoughts?

Answer my other questions please.

[Not_Mafia]

Because I'm interested in seeing where all of you flop first.

This sentence strikes me as scummy.

So, you waited for a day and until the thread was 3 pages long before you posted on D1. You're now waiting on D2 to see where everyone else is at first. What could be the possible advantage of doing this..?

All you had to do was scroll up for two seconds to find this.Also, I never said Thor's late entry was your only reasoning and I don't see where you would get that from my comments.

I am scumreading Thor because I found the way he jumped on my wagon at the start of D1 opportunistic, then when he was attacked by BBT I thought he was strawmanning and drawing false equivalencys between himself and BBT's vote. This is also coupled with PoE due to townreads on Aquanim, BBT and Tynn/Elk.

I liked BBT's early posting and I found his reaction to Thor's pressure to be of a townie backed in to a corner by someone who was either misrepping or misunderstanding him.

And don't misrep my push or lack thereof on Thor, he was not a realistic lynch d1 and you yourself agreeing with this after discussing it with elk.

Everything I've said here is in my ISO and you've been far too active in this game not to know this, so I don't know if this is you trying to get a read on me or just you trying far too hard to look like you're scumhunting

[Tr1ckster]

Like you, I don't memorize what people say or do in their ISO. For a person who just thought BBT was the only one scumreading Thor for a late entry, you should not be attacking me for this.

Now please answer my other questions.

[Not_Mafia]

What questions do you think I feel I haven't answered?

[Tr1ckster]

If he's your biggest scum read, why were you withholding your vote?

Why did you not question him as your largest scum read? Why did you simply sit back and observe?

[Not_Mafia]

I didn't vote as the final votecount was making me second guess myself and then I came back to this wagon brewing which further made me second guess myself.

If you're talking about d1, which I have to assume you are as I just answered about today. I did question him but no one agreed with my read and he wasn't a realistic lynch, you agreed with me and Elk on it being pointless me pursuing a lynch on him by the end of the day so don't try to retcon what you've said now

[Aquanim]

This is probably wrong. But I can always move.

This is based on a parallel thing. Pretty much it feels like he hit 4 birds with one stone, got rid of two people scum reading him while he was town reading one. I'm guilty of the same thing here though. Concretely anyway. That's my thought on the night kill. Problem statement: why would Aqua save BBT? That's the only thing I don't get, he was scum reading him too, it shouldn't really matter to him unless he think he's mislynch bait? Were all the wagons yesterday on town?

Not much I can say to a case that boils down to "the dead players so far would be convenient for him if he is scum", other than "well I'm not scum so go looking for another explanation". I don't think Madonna or Belisarius had particularly strong scumreads on me by the end of the day, for what that's worth.

Also, I only count three birds, and two stones. (though that's not really the point here.)

As far as night-kill analysis goes there's always going to be the possibility that the scum somehow worked out Madonna's role so there's probably no definite conclusions to be made. The firmest conclusion I can find is that a hypothetical Tr1ckster scum would have had to be either very sure Madonna was a power role, or have had some pressing reason to not be comfortable tunnelling Madonna again today.

[Aquanim]

@Tr1ckster

I don't like Thor's hammer at the end of the day

Why not?

[Aquanim]

@BlueBloodedToffee:

I'm still trying to make sense of the nightkill before I move forward. Madonna was run up to L-1 and nearly lynched before the sudden Beli wagon, and yet she got killed overnight. Clearly someone either suspected her of being a PR, or liked the way her death implicates/clears others, and I'm trying to figure out who stands to gain/lose from her death.

Would it be fair to say that myself and Madonna were the two front runners for today's lynch if Beli flipped town? I don't believe scum could have read Madonna as a PR, unless her cautiousness and self-awareness were seen by scum as an attempt to hide a PR, but I doubt that is likely because I assume Madonna's play won't change too much if she is a VT or a PR, I could be wrong of course. I think they killed her to set up a pretty easy D2 lynch on myself and just got lucky that she happened to be a PR.

If both you and Madonna were the likely lynches today, and you are both town, why would scum bother to shoot either of you? They wouldn't care which townie gets lynched.

@theelkspeaks:

If Madonna and I were your most likely scumteam, why did you choose to vote for Belisarius (a wagon led by myself and Knell, another of your scumreads) over pushing a Madonna wagon? In other words, if your theory was correct I was starting a Beli wagon to save Madonna from the lynch; why did you jump on the Beli wagon in that case?

[Aquanim]

@Thor665:

I don't like this. You and NM are both pinging. Why do you care what everyone else thinks before you share your own thoughts?

You seem to be aware that I'm "influential" yet you cannot think of a reason why, for scumhunting purposes, I'd like to see people state their beliefs before I state mine? I mean, you can't think of any valid reasoning at all here? Really?

Oh, you need people to post before you can provide a valid post?
What if they're like you, and need you to post before they can provide a valid post?
Seems like either you're a bad player or you're trying to avoid saying things for no clear reason.