Newbie 1497 (Game Over)

[Aquanim]

I won't rule out the possibility altogether, but I think it's the most likely explanation and furthermore the best I have to go on. And with respect to Thor, I consider his hammer an unlikely scum move (scum would hate to hammer town D1), but some other incidents in his play make me a little uncertain about him. I don't think Thor earned any scumpoints by hammering though.

You've missed my point.

In general

scum would prefer not to take responsibility for a mislynch by hammering it. However, in this case:
- Thor can avoid responsibility by pointing out that it was either Beli or a no-lynch
- Thor knows that people think scum would prefer not to hammer a townie, and has both the skills and the balls to exploit that fact

I regard the fact that he hammered the Beli wagon as null.

Regardless of his alignment, Thor could not do anything besides hammering Belisarius in that situation.

[theelkspeaks]

I don't think Madonna being a PR is the key to my argument. My argument was made without the PR portion at first, but I added the PR part on at the end, because in my mind, that makes it even stronger.

I think your argument more or less falls apart if scum didn't guess Madonna was a PR, myself. If you imagine Madonna as a VT:

If Knell (or myself for that matter) were scum we could have waited until the eleventh hour and then hammered Madonna ourselves on the grounds there was no good lynches, rather than running off and wagoning Belisarius (who was in my opinion a less valuable townie than Madonna, and therefore a lower priority for scum to remove from the game).

A scum-Tr1ckster could have just stayed on the Madonna wagon; he'd committed pretty hard to that wagon throughout the day and not been suspected much for it. (It is possible that Tr1ckster might have preferred to sheep a mislynch rather than lead one; but in that case, why did he push Madonna so hard for the rest of the day?)

The Madonna lynch chances had gone to nil and there was going to be a wagon on someone else. The only thing anyone could hope to control was who.

I disagree. For starters, if nothing had changed about the wagons I would have hammered Madonna myself, which I believe I said at some point. Even though I had a decent townread on her, lynching her so that we wouldn't be discussing the same things day 2 would have been barely preferable to a nolynch. Knell and Belisarius had expressed similar sentiments, I think. If Knell had just said "I give up" rather than "I give up... but I'd rather lynch Belisarius", I'm pretty sure we'd have lynched Madonna yesterday.

There was definitely less interest in the Tr1ckster and BBT wagons than the Madonna wagon, and no other active wagons.

I'm not sure why you think that the chances of somebody getting lynched is "nil" when they are at L-1 and there are no other significant wagons.

When rereading that section of the game, it certainly felt like the pressure on Madonna had let up even before those three votes came out. I remember feeling similarly during the actual phase of the game when experiencing it. Reread the handful of posts before the first vote in the final Beli wagon and tell me you don't feel the pressure on Madonna evaporate.

[Aquanim]

When rereading that section of the game, it certainly felt like the pressure on Madonna had let up even before those three votes came out. I remember feeling similarly during the actual phase of the game when experiencing it. Reread the handful of posts before the first vote in the final Beli wagon and tell me you don't feel the pressure on Madonna evaporate.

I remember my thoughts at the time were "The Tr1ckster wagon is terribad and won't go through, which leaves only the Madonna wagon... which is also bad but there's just no interest anywhere else, and we're running out of time so we're probably stuck with it".

So far as I can see, the four votes on Madonna looked pretty solid and unlikely to move. Knell and I were arguing against it on the previous page, but we weren't making a whole lot of progress. Tr1ckster had perhaps shown a little bit of interest in a Belisarius lynch, but he seemed pretty clearly set on Madonna.

[Aquanim]

In other words, the only reason the Madonna lynch was starting to look less likely at all was because the possibility of a Belisarius lynch was being considered - and if any of us three had not been receptive to a Belisarius lynch, I think it would not have gained momentum and we'd have quite likely been stuck with lynching Madonna.

[theelkspeaks]

I feel at this point we're largely rehashing our points, so I'll wait for others' input.

[Zaicon]

Vote Count 2.4

Tr1ckster (2):

Not_Mafia, theelkspeaks

Aquanim (1):

Knell

Thor665 (1):

Tr1ckster

theelkspeaks (1):

Aquanim

No Vote (2):

BlueBloodedToffee, Thor665

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch!

Deadline is Monday, May 19 at 8:30 AM CDT, which is in (expired on 2014-05-19 08:30:00).

[Thor665]

OK, so a mistake makes him scummy? You're activity levels did drop towards the end of D1 which I assume is what he was referring to. How this links into you being scummy though, I have no idea.

Mistake or misrepresentation? It's a matter of perspective - but, yes, i think that makes him look scummy. You don't?

My activity levels did not drop in any particular way - please tell me why you think they did.

Even he doesn't know that - isn't that sort of curious to you...like...at all?

I'm assuming your second point is referring to the 'I like to see what everyone else does'. If so, I think everybody has contributed something since the beginning of D2, is there someone/something that you're not particularly happy about or that you're waiting for?

Yes.

So, I ask again. Now that everyone has contributed, why are you not pursuing a scum-read?

You still don't understand what I'm doing...so...meh.

@Everyone except Elk

: Explain why you are not voting elk. If you have a townread on him, explain it. If you think he's scummy but someone else is scummier, make an argument for why I should agree with you.

Because you haven't made a concise and easy case on him that you're willing to repeat. I, personally, have him as mild town.

I regard the fact that he hammered the Beli wagon as null.

Regardless of his alignment, Thor could not do anything besides hammering Belisarius in that situation.

Actually I had a few other options.


====================


I'm going to point out something for any and everyone who complained about me being so aggressive yesterday.
Let's look at today.
Look at them wagons.
Super exciting stuff, right?
Yeah, not exactly.

Vote: BlueBloodedToffee

Still scum - needs death.

My other vibes are NM and Tricks. Tricks has burned up a lot of his earlier town cred, and honestly his interaction with Knell looked massively fake to me and pretty much killed my town read on him. I found Knell's response honest and reasonable, and found Trick's to basically be an admission he's lying about taking notes. He's now in my scum pool.

@Knell - Your current vote is kinda useless and is also almost assuredly on town. Vote your secondary scumspect please.

@Trickster - same message to you...but I think you're scum so your vote makes sense. Keep up the good work.

@Aqua - you need to sell that wagon hard if you want it to go somewhere. As an alternative, we can lynch BBT today, yes?

That's me.

[Thor665]

@Mod - my first quote tag used the incorrect closing mark - if you could fix the above for legibility I'd appreciate.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

No, I don't think it makes him look scummy.

If you're trying to suggest you were as active at the end of D1 as you were at the beginning, I cannot add anything further as this is clearly false. I don't really want to keep banging on about this because as I said, I'm not sure how it's indicative that you're scum.

OK, I understand now. Point well made, well played.

Umm, you explain your reads on everyone you haven't voted for (except NM). Am I to ascertain that your vote is a PoE vote?

[Aquanim]

@Thor

: Could you restate your BBT case in the light of his more recent play? I'm particularly interested in your opinion of his play in day 2.

[Knell]

@aquanim,yesterday why didn't you go back to bbt? Phone.

[Knell]

And I mean D1 and D2

[Aquanim]

Vis-à-vis the Tr1ckster read: The elementary town-heuristics I gave before about ISO length, shyness and what have you still apply, but I'm willing to consider that they're less reliable when applied to an SE in a newbie game on a different site than what I'm used to.

About the notes thing: My impression was that Tr1ckster didn't think there were only two scum in the other game; therefore, to find that his notes say he thought there were only two is... odd. It would, however, surprise me to find that a player who takes extensive notes as town does not try to mimic that approach as scum. I think that obsessing over the accuracy of Tr1ckster's notes or the veracity of his "townslip" is probably less useful than considering the rest of his play, but I'll give this some more thought.

A post of Tr1ckster which I think deserves further analysis is this one. My gut-feeling is that it's overdoing the uncertainty, "hamming it up" if you will. The reads he gives are very vague and, to take a page out of Belisarius' playbook, the number of ellipses (...) is truly excessive by his standard from day 1 (for what that's worth). The post he made just after the Madonna flip also seemed off to me (overplaying his consternation at Madonna's alignment), but again that's a feeling.

@Elk

What's your current take on things?

___

I don't like Thor's hammer at the end of the day... and he's IC... I don't know everyone here.. I've never played with you before... but from the vibes I get from people... I think only Thor, Knell and Aqua could read PT on D1 like that.. and I think I have town reads on Knell and Aqua.. so I'd really like Thor to answer Knell's questions.

I really don't know what to make of N_M right now.. I'd like to think he's scum.. but the attempted wagon at the end of day yesterday didn't feel like a white knight.. so.. err.. Null for him...

BBT's still newbtown on my reads right now.. I'd like to see what he thinks of what has happened so far?

___

Anyways.. the thread is dead today for some reason.. I was able to reread with very few interruptions.. I'm not sure what to make of this... but I should probably go to sleep now. Goodnight, thread. I hope you wake up before I do. >.<

[Aquanim]

@aquanim,yesterday why didn't you go back to bbt? Phone.

In day 1 towards the end I moved backward and forward between BBT and Belisarius based on which one I thought I could get a lynch on. I don't think that's what you're asking?

As for day 2, BBT's posts towards the end of day 1 gave me enough pause for thought that I decided I'd give him some space today to see what he did with it. I'm still thinking about what I make of his posts today. Besides that, I felt that Elk could use some closer examination.

[Knell]

I meant why did you decide that beli was a better lynch over bbt?

[Aquanim]

I meant why did you decide that beli was a better lynch over bbt?

I don't think I ever thought that Belisarius was greatly more likely to flip scum that BBT, but what I did think was that
- There was more chance of successfully pushing a Belisarius lynch than a BBT lynch
- I felt my read on BBT was more likely to become clearer with time than my read on Belisarius

[Knell]

Huh. Well I did it because he was my strongest scum read. Going to need to revise that scum tell, . I always try to lynch my strongest scum read if it's possible regardless of potential loss of information. Day 2 watching bbt is reasonable.

[Aquanim]

Huh. Well I did it because he was my strongest scum read. Going to need to revise that scum tell, . I always try to lynch my strongest scum read if it's possible regardless of potential loss of information. Day 2 watching bbt is reasonable.

So do I, when one read is clearly better than the other. But when the two reads are roughly similar in strength, as they were in this case, I look at the secondary considerations I mentioned.

[Thor665]

No, I don't think it makes him look scummy.

So you think that's an honest mistake (even though you are also arguing that he was correct...so I guess his mistake was in agreeing with me that he was wrong)

If you're trying to suggest you were as active at the end of D1 as you were at the beginning, I cannot add anything further as this is clearly false. I don't really want to keep banging on about this because as I said, I'm not sure how it's indicative that you're scum.

How is it false - since you're calling it such?

Umm, you explain your reads on everyone you haven't voted for (except NM). Am I to ascertain that your vote is a PoE vote?

Certainly PoE is part of my process, as are other things, I have no issue with you thinking there was PoE involved in my choice - there doubtless was.

@Thor

: Could you restate your BBT case in the light of his more recent play? I'm particularly interested in your opinion of his play in day 2.

I find his play today to be like clinging to the back of any discussion so that if it goes under he shall remain afloat.
Seriously - besides his awkward one of calling my issue with NM one of a mistake, while arguing that there was no mistake (so I guess he thinks I just brow beat NM into believing insanity) what actual stance has he taken this day?

About the notes thing: My impression was that Tr1ckster didn't think there were only two scum in the other game; therefore, to find that his notes say he thought there were only two is... odd. It would, however, surprise me to find that a player who takes extensive notes as town does not try to mimic that approach as scum. I think that obsessing over the accuracy of Tr1ckster's notes or the veracity of his "townslip" is probably less useful than considering the rest of his play, but I'll give this some more thought.

So you believe the notes exist?

[Tr1ckster]

Sorry I've been absent.. I've been horribly ill these past two days and even Sunday responding to Knell I wasn't feeling great. I'm feeling a good bit better now, though, and I'll see about getting those notes to Knell.. though I don't know. That's a lot of work... xD If Knell thinks I'm scum because I'm too lazy to share my notes, lynch me. I'll share 'em when I'm ready.

That said, I'm getting town vibes from Thor now.

UNVOTE:

Still not ok with a BBT lynch.. but I guess I'll try this for a little bit.

VOTE: BBT

[Not_Mafia]

That looks like a really forced excuse to wagon hop to me

[BlueBloodedToffee]

@Thor - I am glad you explained your vote, it's good to know it's based on nothing concrete, just PoE. Umm, your reads are wrong.

In case you hadn't noticed, I have been doing some digging/investigating on Elk. This was a continued discussion, until Elk decided not to respond to my last comment, I will now be voting for him. Conversely, what exactly have you done on D2 other than sit back and observe? What have you contributed? How are you trying to help town?

@Trick - You're very quick to wagon hop. You certainly don't need much persuading. This has been noted.

VOTE: Elk

[Tr1ckster]

Eh. I always wagon hop unless I'm gambitting or I've got a strong scum read. Don't worry, my vote will be on N_M at day end. I'm pretty sure he's scum. Any angle I take makes him look scum to me.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Eh. I always wagon hop unless I'm gambitting or

I've got a strong scum read

. Don't worry, my vote will be on N_M at day end.

I'm pretty sure he's scum

. Any angle I take makes him look scum to me.

Umm, contradictory much?

[Tr1ckster]

I sometimes wagon hop even when I've got a strong scum read.