Touhou UPick 2 - [Game Over]

Kagami · Post Post #2950 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 5:19 am

In post 2943, fferyllt wrote:kagami, do you see Magua's freak-out as something coming from scum?

That could go either way, imo, it looked slightly artificial to me at the time, but I generally like magua's posting since then.

Kagami · Post Post #2951 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 5:25 am

In post 2928, zMuffinMan wrote:also i just realised there's 2 days to deadline and i don't even know if nacho and victor are still around

No Lynch is not terrible. Scum still want to crosskill, and we're relying on them doing so regardless.

Lynching groupscum would likely be better, since it means we aren't relying on the SK's shot, but in the current situation, I'm not very confident that will happen.

Depending on the SK's identity and abilities, lynching groupscum might actually incentivize him/her into aiming for town. If that's the case, then any lynch is a bad lynch.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #2952 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 5:27 am

*shrug*

i'd be fine with no lynch happening tbh

no one else seemed to want it when i suggested it at some point earlier today

zMuffinMan · Post Post #2953 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 5:32 am

i think nacho said no and ffery said she was worried about scum killing town if we no lynch and nobody else really commented on it

zMuffinMan · Post Post #2954 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 5:32 am

kagami wrote:I generally like magua's posting since then

er... what specifically?

fferyllt · Post Post #2955 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 6:08 am

In post 2949, zMuffinMan wrote:
ffery wrote:Yes
is that why you're unsure if he's scum? meh. could see that panic coming from scum or town, really.

Maybe.

It gives me pause thinking about it contextually.

what's your current read on victor, btw?

Hasn't changed. I guess what has changed is having more understanding of why Varsoon is so convinced he's town. Though, Varsoon's play still seems kinda low key. Trying to put my head into the perspective of biding his time waiting for the trap-sprung moment. Trap is sprung, now what?

vezokpiraka · Post Post #2956 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 6:14 am

3-2-1 won't be that much better. And that's assuming best shots. Actually 4-2 would be best shots, but that's just super lucky.

zmuffin please vote kagami, varsoon please do the same.
It's pretty clear now that the scum team is ffery, kagami, magua.

fferyllt · Post Post #2957 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 6:16 am

In post 2956, vezokpiraka wrote:3-2-1 won't be that much better. And that's assuming best shots. Actually 4-2 would be best shots, but that's just super lucky.

zmuffin please vote kagami, varsoon please do the same.
It's pretty clear now that the scum team is ffery, kagami, magua.

See you say something like this and it totally shoots down any sense that you have a grasp on this game and I stop wanting to listen to you. :/

fferyllt · Post Post #2958 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 6:18 am

Because although vigging sakura was an incredibly dumb thing for town to do, usually that kind of total screw up means a course correction.

How did Sakura flipping town change your understanding of the game?

Kagami · Post Post #2959 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 6:31 am

In post 2956, vezokpiraka wrote:3-2-1 won't be that much better. And that's assuming best shots. Actually 4-2 would be best shots, but that's just super lucky.

zmuffin please vote kagami, varsoon please do the same.
It's pretty clear now that the scum team is ffery, kagami, magua.

4-2 is very likely. I suspect scum have a good idea who the SK is.

vezokpiraka · Post Post #2960 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 7:14 am

In post 2958, fferyllt wrote:Because although vigging sakura was an incredibly dumb thing for town to do, usually that kind of total screw up means a course correction.

How did Sakura flipping town change your understanding of the game?

Confirmed varsoon as town and made me rethink my reads.

If you are town ffery please think this through and realize there is no world in which kagami is not scum.

Kagami · Post Post #2961 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 7:55 am

There is such a world. A world in which Victor is scum, which happens to also be the real world.

Varsoon is not town. Town varsoon would not be voting for me; town-varsoon would have me as conf-town since day 1. The only real question re:varsoon is whether he's SK or not. If he were SK, it would still make no sense to vote me, but if he's group-scum, then FG put a godfather in the game or worse yet, made Sakura's ability able to be manipulated without her knowledge.

Do you actually have a reason for town-reading Victor?

vezokpiraka · Post Post #2962 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 8:57 am

If varsoon and victor are scum-sk or scum-town I'll apologize for leading the town to failure.
On the other hand you can't say that, because you and magua are buddies who voted victor and have their vote stuck.

vezokpiraka · Post Post #2963 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 8:57 am

Ffery: If you can't make up your mind just vote for both of them.

FakeGod · Post Post #2964 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 9:14 am

VoteCount 3.8

VictorDeAngelo [2] -

Magua

,

Kagami

Kagami [3] - Varsoon, VictorDeAngelo, vezokpiraka

Not Voting [3]

- zMuffinMan fferyllt Nachomamma8

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch

.

Deadline is May 31, 2014, at 11:00 AM PST.
Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2014-05-31 13:00:00)

fferyllt · Post Post #2965 (ISO) » Fri May 30, 2014 9:23 am

In post 2963, vezokpiraka wrote:Ffery: If you can't make up your mind just vote for both of them.

I don't think multiple voting is a good idea today.

At this point the only person I strongly feel is both town and making sense is muffin. He could be SK playing a great day game maybe, but I really don't think he's groupscum.

You're town. But you're quite simply no help at all in figuring things out.

Nacho - seemed too focused on the SK in his thought process 2 weeks ago or whenever the hell that convo was. Discounting that, I got a strong sense of figuring-it-out from his posts since I replaced in.

kagami - looks townish to me. I think I have some kagami-tells figured out now that I've played a game where she was scum. Which is worth...not a lot in a situation with 8 players and 4 of them not-town.

Magua - looks too damn sure in his reads to me. That's the main thing that sticks out about his play. I'm mulling over that versus the freak-out.

Victor - also has a level of sureness that troubles me.

Varsoon - doesn't feel as engaged or as will-o-the-wisp as I associate with his town game, but sakura's investigation.

I think the thing that worries me most is that if I take both varsoon and victor off the table AND it turns out they are both groupscum, then I have a 1 in 4 chance of randomly voting the one scum player in {zmuffin, nacho, kagami, magua}. It's more likely that no more than 1 of them is scum, which increases the odds to 50%.

And if I go with my strong town read of muffin, then the odds are better. And of those three remaining, Magua is who I most feel is scum.

zMuffinMan · Post Post #2966 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 5:09 am

yeah. well. i don't think a magua lynch is going to happen in the next 3 hours

i'll be back in an hour and a bit then prob around til deadline

i would still prefer a victor lynch to kagami (though i don't even know if there's going to be enough people around who are willing to lynch victor before deadline) but i wouldn't be terribly sad if no lynch happened

fferyllt · Post Post #2967 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 5:37 am

I don't like the options you think are realistic, but I'd vote Victor over kagami. :/

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2968 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 6:02 am

Perfect! 2 hours is just the right amount of time to get absolutely nothing done

fferyllt · Post Post #2969 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 6:03 am

What do you think about no lynching?

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2970 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 6:18 am

I think we sort of have to do it at this point?

fferyllt · Post Post #2971 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 6:28 am

I don't think so? The lynch options are pretty constrained.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2972 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 6:42 am

I mean, I don't want to vote Kagami.
I could vote Victor? But that seems like a very settle-y lynch and what I was hoping was a lynch that would be more likely to kill scum than an SK/scum guided kill would be.

Nachomamma8 · Post Post #2973 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 6:55 am

In post 2925, zMuffinMan wrote:i was thinking about this a little during the week of downtime and i think this more than anything points strongly to one scum in {varsoon, victor}.

I can agree with this.
And I think the way Varsoon's ability-ness unleashed itself was pretty fucking town, to be completely honest.

fferyllt · Post Post #2974 (ISO) » Sat May 31, 2014 6:59 am

In post 2973, Nachomamma8 wrote:
In post 2925, zMuffinMan wrote:i was thinking about this a little during the week of downtime and i think this more than anything points strongly to one scum in {varsoon, victor}.
I can agree with this.
And I think the way Varsoon's ability-ness unleashed itself was pretty fucking town, to be completely honest.

It did. But it was kinda missing an "and then" aspect. I dunno. maybe that lack also points to town.