NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[MrBuddyLee]

Khan's absence hasn't convinced me one way or the other, either.

What do you think of Khan's posting?

[MrBuddyLee]

Sorry, KK, I thought you were a dude but someone else ran with "she".

[Kublai Khan]

Also: Hi, MrBuddyLee. Why are you asking questions to other people about my actions and/or just leaping to assumptions without asking me to clarify?

Obviously I'm not going with some simplistic thinking of "voting MafiaSSK = scum" or vice versa. It's moar to do with the style and timing of the arguments. petroleumjelly voted after quoting MafiaSSK. Which is a fine tactic to invite responses based on assumptions and judge those assumptions appropriately. Seol painted an excessively scummy picture for the forth page in a large game. So my impression was that he was scummier for it.

[Green Crayons]

I stand on my opinion that KK's posting now not because you asked her questions weeks ago, but because it's too late for her to earn votes. And that her scumhunting is dreadfully thin and internally inconsistent.

Fair enough.

And, hey, what do you know, but I'm not actually taking the time and effort to really read into Kublai's post until Day 2. So you do have a fair point. Just one that I'll consider more fully tomorrow. Hat tip.

-----

Why are people calling me a "she"? I'm a dude...

Because I thought you were a girl. Sorry.

[Sotty7]

Perhaps you'll get out of this that I'm town, and if so, that's a small positive to take out of this discussion. However, that small positive isn't worth the opportunity cost of pedantic "explain yourself right this instant!" arguments that can be saved until tomorrow. There is zero chance of you convincing me to vote Bookitty today, so unless the scums plan on killing me tonight, I'd rather save the argument until start of day tomorrow.

Well the whole thing I am struggling with is your defense of Bookitty is pretty strong considering your reasoning. When either CES or myself asked you to detail a little more you just tried dismissing both of us and our view of Boo's replacement in. That's my biggest sticking point with you, you have spent more time derailing the boo wagon rather than pushing the one you are on. I would expect it to be the other way around, so I wanted to poke you. You reacted in a pretty defensive manner and that could be because of your "persecution complex" I suppose. I just can't shake the feeling that something is funky here and I need to figure out what.

I just found DGB's UT vote to be pretty bad which is why I questioned that read in particular.

So clearly, you haven't bothered iso'ing UT.

No just noting that you are tip-toeing around the major wagons and wasting deadline time with a lynch that won't happen today.

sotty7 - Disliked Post 58. Don't really understand the need to actively diffuse the MafiaSSK wagon at that point in time.

Eh maybe I could have sat back and watched the scum pile on or something but I made a judgement call that I stand by.

Also I will be around until about 10:15am CST tomorrow morning, after that I will be at work. If I need to move my vote I'll do so by then.

[MrBuddyLee]

Also: Hi, MrBuddyLee. Why are you asking questions to other people about my actions and/or just leaping to assumptions without asking me to clarify?

I've invited you previously to extend and update your suspicions. Currently you've expressed your opinions based on reading through page 4.

How much of the game have you read at this point, and what do you think of LML, Bookitty and PJ based on your fuller read? Also, do you have a primary scum suspect who's not in that short list?

Why haven't you placed a vote in your two weeks in this game?

[Yosarian2]

Kublai Khan: Vote for someone, now. If we no-lynch today and you end the day without voting for anyone, we're lynching you tomorrow.

MBL: Assuming we're not going to lynch Kublai Khan today, who's your second choice?

[Glork]

Unvote
Vote: KK

[Glork]

At this point I'll probably? lynch anyone not named Glork, ABR, Bookitty, DGB, or Porochaz, and possibly LmL

But seriously, KK coming into thread like 18 hours before deadline and posting a one-liner about being called "she," instead of ANY USEFUL CONTENT OR PRODUCTIVE VOTE WHATSOEVER, is complete horse shit, and it needs to die as soon as possible.

[Kublai Khan]

I'm writing stuff. Calm down Glork.

[Glork]

Tease us with a vote~

[Sotty7]

A vote would be great.

As would an inhim prod.

[Kublai Khan]

Tease us with a vote~

I think LoudmouthLee is pretty scummy. petroleumjelly doesn't seem scummy. Just getting started on analyzing BooKitty.

So, VOTE: LoudmouthLee for now.

[DrippingGoofball]

VOTE UNTROD TRIPOD

OLDY MAFIA'S ROB FORD

DGB, you're the only one who wants to lynch UT, and the deadline is in 20 hours. It's not going to happen today. Vote for someone else.

Oh alright, since you guys don't want to lynch the obvscum among us:

VOTE: KK

[Patrick]

Votecount

LoudmouthLee (6) -- Green Crayons, Yosarian2, petroleumjelly, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, Kublai Khan
Kublai Khan (3) -- MrBuddyLee, Glork, DrippingGoofball
Bookitty (8) -- Sotty7, Shanba, Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, Untrod Tripod, mathcam, undo, CrashTextDummie
petroleumjelly (3) -- LoudmouthLee, Bookitty, VitaminR
Porochaz (1) -- inHimshallibe
Cogito Ergo Sum (1) -- Albert B. Rampage

Not voting: Nobody
22 alive, 12 to lynch.

[LoudmouthLee]

I'm writing stuff. Calm down Glork.

Still haven't seen it.

vote: KK

Will try to get back here for tomorrow, but please be aware that all posts will be done through iPhone. It should be very interesting.

[MrBuddyLee]

@Glork

, I know others have touched upon this, but I need to ask you for some details, as much to check my head as to learn more about you. When you posted:

I'm like 80% sure that I will be voting to lynch Bookitty or PJ today. I just really can't decide which.

Why did Bookitty make your short-list? You later clarified (I believe your choice to vote PJ):

I thought the Seol-hate was pretty weak, and .. I've been fine with Bookitty's posts.

And though you've given some loose details about being "ok" with Bookitty's contributions, can you give me anything meatier? A sentence or two, possibly referencing her specific opinions on another player or an overall specific trend you see in her posts?

I'm personally up and down on Bookitty. Her PBPAs sound townish, but I don't really dig her reasoning on PJ:

Everyone is scum, he has no townreads. He's unwilling to give any of his precious info to town. He's afraid of LML but the VCA gave him courage to jump on him. Timing of jumps is just odd.

LML's VCA sucked a nut imo, and expressing no townreads this early isn't scummy imo. Not answering every question or clarifying every point isn't scummy imo, unless there's a pattern to the "deceit". I can legit see a townie feeling this way though.. the differences in opinion here aren't necessarily scummy.

LML has been weird as fuck to me. I don't have a problem with her finding him suspect, but for stated reasons:

I see the points made against LML and I can agree with them in part. Also, LML has no scum on his wagon right now (IMO) which makes him way more likely scum for me. The person I thought was scummy (PJ) jumped to me as soon as that wagon became viable. I would sheep Yos if I weren't voting PJ.

I'd like her own reasons on LML (of which she's given few). I don't like that so much of her LML-hate is based on vote switches. Additionally:

He(LML) pulls his vote off STD and then votes UT for the EXACT SAME thing.

I don't dig that she says she'd sheep Yos on LML. 1) Because "sheeping" shirks personal responsibility, and 2) A big part of Yos's LML case is related to the shittiness of his VCA conclusions, which is one of the things Bookitty dinged PJ for.

I don't dig that she spends so much time in her PBPA talking about who she agrees with and why.. it comes across buttkiss-y. I don't like that her top two suspects just happen to be the two wagons with a chance of supplanting hers. I don't like that she seems to be appeasing Glork, but then again, he followed her onto PJ and I think Glork and Bookitty disagree on LML, so the fact that she kind of parrotted Glork on Sotty is maybe not such a big deal. It's more of a pattern of overall deference I don't like.

Basically, I am torn on Bookitty. The tone of her posts is townish, but when you get into the specifics they smell a little funny. I'm currently leaning towards "she thinks differently from me" moreso than "she's scummy". Seol's minimal contribution hardly moves the needle relative to what Bookitty's given us, so I'm basing this mostly off her posts.

[Save The Dragons]

Khan's absence hasn't convinced me one way or the other, either.

What do you think of Khan's posting?

There's like nothing there. So, uh...I don't know? I kind of wish he posted more, but at the same time there's plenty of scum to catch and not enough time to do it. I certainly think that it's plausible KK was kind of toeing the line, seeing how far he could get without posting, but I'm not convinced that that's what happened. I'm not wowed by his content, either. Maybe he's scum, maybe he's not. He's null, and under a time crunch I'd happily go for one of my scum reads over a null read. Not on a time crunch, I'd happily go after a scum read over a null read. He'll have plenty of time D2 to speak.

That is not to say he shouldn't say anything today if he can.

I'm also not particularly confident of the towniness of the last few people to jump onto the wagon.

[chamber]

I'm willing to do KK instead of bookitty if it comes to it, but shes still my preferred lynch.

[Kublai Khan]

I'm writing stuff. Calm down Glork.

Still haven't seen it.

In Post 278 you give a stern warning to VitaminR that scum aren't going to be caught based on small "common" tells. Then you spend an inordinate amount of time attacking Save The Dragons and Untrod Tripod for wagon-jumping. Even making up an Excel worksheet to make your simplistic scum-hunting look more in depth than it really is.

I don't believe that your Excel sheet-based scum-hunting is legitimate. It's Adel-esque, but the reason those excel sheets work for Adel is all the extra work she puts into them. Timing of vote changes, how big the wagons were at the time of change, competing wagon sizes, etc.. That's what true VCA is made up of. Plus if you honestly are hunting based on VCA, why announce it early-to-mid Day 1? That just tells scum to watch how they vote from that point on.

Plus there's other little stuff that bugs me. You've paraded your meta around, encouraging others to research you. I find that scum happy with their play are more likely to do this.

Why are you voting me?

[MrBuddyLee]

I don't like LML's VCA.. it was really early to do a VCA like that and the face that he posted the spreadsheet was weird as hell. He drew attention to a "VI" wagon (Nat) that didn't really feel like the true VI wagon at the time (SSK). He never once mentioned/considered the possibility that Nat was scum and the people voting for Nat might be correct. He condemned UT for being on that Natwagon and didn't really mention DGB/Yos who were also on the Natwagon. Went after StD for other things, but also votehopping, which seems to be the reason UT was selected as the scum on the Natwagon.

His reasons for voting PJ are kind of weird:
1) "for blustering and trying to generate traction on Glork." Glork had just called PJ's vote on LML "opportunistic" and LML pretty much parroted that as a reason to vote PJ. Why is it bad to generate traction on Glork per se? LML's specific "reasoning" here:

PJ takes his time to begin to work out a framework of a case against Glork (244,417,449) by using Glork's rationale against MafiaSSK against him. When Glork had made a request of PJ to talk about others, PJ balked, saying that he has no town reads. Only scum reads. This, coupled with his most recent FoS of Glork for MY actions seems strange. You seem to be blustering a whole lot at Glork for talking about his reads in particular. I'm still trying to craft in my head why you would do this as a town player, and I cannot. As scum, however, I see you blustering for a number of reasons... but it looks like you've tried (unsuccessfully) to generate some traction on Glork.

This part doesn't feel right to me.. PJ was picking at details of Glork's reads. LML inflates that into "balking", "strange", "blustering", "generate traction". So much spin based on a few PJ nitpicks. Feels more to me like LML picking up on Glork-PJ angst and trying to pit them against each other.

2) "vote on LML is opportunistic--where did PJ's suspicions come from?" See above--LML is parroting Glork here. And being suspect of that VCA was dandy imo.

3) "weak players thing with VitR"--whatever. seems as null a tell as they come. bad judgment to press VitR on that issue is all I see.

4) "blustering at ABR was odd--ABR was voting LML at the time" I suppose you could call this bluster, because PJ's since expressed that he misinterpreted the ABR quote and didn't really have another reason to FOS albert. But as for the second half of the accusation, LML hadn't posted his awful VCA (371) yet, so why's it odd that PJ's not factoring in LML suspicions when poking Albert in post 244?

I'll add that while LML paid lip service to being all about the "Vote Reads" rather than "Tell Reads", I don't think he ever commented on PJ's vote history. Maybe because PJ had been voting the same dood that LML FOSed?

I really don't like this post, considering how weak LML's case is:

nearly positive that PJ will flip red

So weird based on those four reasons above, which are LML's only posted reasons for finding PJ suspect (I think).

Also, this is a weird thing to say to your top suspect:

With that being said, good job having your prints on two different major wagons at the same time, PJ. That's what caused me to get "heat" to begin with, being both concerned about MafiaSSK and Tigris.

What are you saying, LML? That even though people were wrong to give you heat for being on two wagons, you'll eagerly welcome heat on PJ for doing the same?

LML gives me the creeps.

I will also state for the record that in the game I replaced him as scum (Himalayan Mafia), LML bused tidus_of_zanarkand and DGB mercilessly. On DGB:

You seem to be very buddy buddy with DGB. I implore you to look AWAY from your friendliness and lynch her, Lloyd. She masically SLIPPED. I quoted it and pounced on it RIGHT AWAY. I have referenced said quote a HUNDRED TIMES.

I'm even willing to bet my mafia life on it.

Overstating confidence in one's guilt is, apparently, scummy.

I need to step back from this a bit and come back with a clear mind. Can this LML behavior be borne from a town mindset?

[petroleumjelly]

1.)

I will be at work when deadline hits. I will check the game before heading to work tomorrow. And I will try to remember to get on my phone during lunch (which should be maybe an hour before the deadline hits) if I need to change my vote to achieve a lynch.

2.)

I most prefer a LoudmouthLee lynch. I am completely fine with a Bookitty lynch. I also like the makeup of her bandwagon more than the people I am voting with right now. I do not think a mathcam lynch is happening this late in the Day (nor will I be pushing it over LoudmouthLee or Bookitty).

I can fully believe that Kublai Khan has not been particularly motivated to catch up, but I cannot put an alignment to it. His explanations for his "first impressions" are not very compatible (e.g., I cannot tell if he thinks the MafiaSSK wagon is bad; he suggests Seol's case was "trumped up and bad" but chastises Sotty7 for "diffusing" the MafiaSSK wagon and VitaminR for "shaming" the wagon), but given that he was explaining "first impressions" I don't find it very telling. I don't have much of an issue with his two most recent posts, though I would like to know his opinion on more than simply myself and LoudmouthLee. I do not think that is where I want my vote. I also am not enthused by any of the players on his wagon, save for MrBuddyLee.

3.)

VitaminR, I do not think it is obvious

at all

why mathcam "sees the arguments" for you being scum. He never mentioned you at all prior to that post. At best mathcam suggested that -- in response to Yosarian2's question -- if Bookitty flips scum, then you will be a "point of interest."

The first problem there is that Yosarian2's question was who matcham would suspect if Bookitty flipped Town. And the second problem is that whether you might be scum with Bookitty is not an argument for you being scum -- it is an argument for you being

partnered

with

potential scum

, and is hence an argument entirely contingent on the alignment of another player.

Unsurprisingly, I am a little skeptical about what exactly mathcam "sees" the arguments against you, or why he thought he was actually answering Yosarian2's question (which was a follow-up I was going to do, but I am just tossing it in now given the deadline and the fact that he has yet to respond).

4.)

And in response to Glork's reasons for finding me scummy, I can understand the frustration in having completely divergent reads. However, my questions have all had reasons behind them and I

have

provided an analysis on the players I am pursuing. But I see you are sweeping that aside by acknowledging it.

Your accusation that I am "playing for me and me alone" I do not understand. I even reread my posts as critically as possible, and I'm not seeing it. (And if I

was

"playing for me alone" then I fail to see how that is even compatible with being Mafia, as a Mafiate very clearly has a list of people they

know

they are playing for).

Is this some sort of jab at the fact that I am choosing to keep some cards closer to my chest than others? Because that is a playstyle choice, and I am far from the first player to adopt such a playstyle. I do not like discussing Townreads overly much; players overtly declared to be Town have a habit of being nightkilled. Or, if they are scum, people start to get entrenched into thinking they are Town and it gets more difficult to change that mentality as the game wears on. About the only time discussing Townreads is strategically good is if (i) they are in danger of being lynched or (ii) you are scumhunting through process of elimination.

If you mean something else, I would like a more detailed explanation.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

The KKwagon is just silly; the Djelibeybiwagon seems playstyle-based; the LmLwagon too partially but it still has some merit; the Bookittywagon is on scum. Given that and the vote count, everyone should vote for one of LmL and Bookitty and that should pretty much get us a lynch.

I'll also note that LmL never did this:

and 8) I'm behind on BooKitty. I'll try to read more today and give a definitive viewpoint on her later.

[undo]

My vote stays where it is.

[Porochaz]

Djelibeybi? I do not know what this is?