NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Green Crayons]

Once again, chamber, we disagree.

Your point only further underscores what additional data points would need to be compiled for Vitamin's observation to be compelling. So, not only would you need to compare how frequently LML spoke about Bookitty relative to every other player, but then such comparisons must be contextualized by how frequently all the other players were being discussed by the thread as a whole.

So, for example, if LML did not speak about several players who were major topics of discussion by the thread, then his lack of Bookitty commentary is not significant in and of itself.

[Sotty7]

Jesus that above post (bookitty's) is so town and explains a lot for me I just have one question. Why do you think PJ picked up on the tell, was there anything he posted to suggest that?

(you were talking about PJ in that post right?)

[Kublai Khan]

The freudian slip was weird. I wouldn't be surprised if that was deliberate on LML's part.

Thought that too. Even thought maybe it was a signal for his scummates to start bussing him. But it's the dying words of a leading scumwagon at deadline so it probably isn't worth dissecting.

[Kublai Khan]

I want DrippingGoofball to answer my earlier question.

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

[Bookitty]

I was talking to PJ.

No, it was just the timing of the vote and the way it was done. That was the first vote on LML's wagon that really felt artificial to me. I felt like the breadcrumb was SO obvious and such a constructed response that I felt like everyone was seeing it. In short, I was paranoid on the subject

[Sotty7]

That pretty much explains a lot of the problems I was having with you.

Vote: DGB

[Patrick]

Votecount

Bookitty (1) -- chamber
petroleumjelly (2) -- VitaminR, Save the Dragons
DrippingGoofball (4) -- Untrod Tripod, petroleumjelly, Kublai Khan, Sotty7
mathcam (1) -- Albert B. Rampage

Not voting: Everyone else
20 alive, 11 to lynch

[Albert B. Rampage]

I have no reason to trust PJ. I can't say that I know for certain that he's scum though.

Unvote, vote UT

This is acceptable.

[VitaminR]

oh for fuck's sake VitR please don't embarrass yourself with a "he didn't say anything therefore he said EVERYTHING" case

No need to get nasty. I was just checking up on chamber's claim. I'm well-aware it could be nothing and that it could mean a variety of things.

@GC: True, it was only a quick observation. Maybe I'll look into it more after I get back from my trip (this will be my last post for a few days), but it was really only intended as a reality check on chamber's point.

VitR should be our lynch today.

Ha, you can't seriously believe that. I've found your scumhunting underwhelming all game and this would be the icing on the cake. Please explain why you would think this.

[Green Crayons]

Instead of merely going with a "look at the bandwagon" route, I went and reread the game with LML-is-scum tinted glasses. That was neat. And time consuming. Also I might have just been skimming at the end.

Town

1) Chamber
4) Untrod Tripod
6) DrippingGoofball
11) Petroleumjelly
15) Albert B. Rampage
16) Green Crayons
18) VitaminR
19) Save the Dragons: but LML's insistence on pushing a STD vote, when his suspicions of STD were just so bad, gives me pause
20) Yosarian2
21) Bookitty (replacing Seol)

Not Sure

2) Porochaz: need non-recap posts to get a better sense of where I stand
3) CrashtextDummie: need more direct back-and-forth interactions with other players to get a better sense of where I stand
5) MrBuddyLee
9) Sotty7
12) Cogito Ergo Sum
13) mathcam (replacing MafiaSSK)

Scum Candidates

8) undo
10) Glork
17) inHimshallibe (replacing Zorblag who replaced Natirasha, who replaced farside22)
22) Kublai Khan (replacing Tigris)

-----

@DGB:

why were you so convinced LML was town?

-----

@Glork:

no, really, please set forth your reasons why you think Vitamin is scum.

-----

@mathcam:

mathcam, I think LML fits your voting criteria.
(1) Scummy.
(2) Has had a lot of interactions with players. Thus, his flip will be pretty informative.
(3) Will probably claim VT.

(1) Meh. (2) Agreed. (3) Maybe. But that's a risk, right? There's an inherent risk in bandwagonning more claims -- either we get more VT claims (which doesn't do much in terms of helping us select a target) or we get a power claim, which while exciting, might be disastrous given that they haven't had a single change to use their role.

Really looking forward to your follow up to Point (2).

-----

@CTD:

it's super weird that LML zeroed in on you in Post 661 for posting elsewhere on the site, but not in this thread. Like, why would he be checking to see if you, specifically, were posting elsewhere, as opposed to any of the other players in this game? Thoughts as to why that might be? Do you know what other areas of the site LML saw you posting?

-----

I'll have a vote next time I post. I already know which of my main suspicions it's going to be, but I want to post my reasons along with the vote, and rereading the thread took all my time and energy, so I don't have the desire at the moment to effort post my thoughts.

[DrippingGoofball]

@DGB: why were you so convinced LML was town?

The emotional tone. I am mortified.

[Yosarian2]

I think a

Vote: petroleumjelly

is in order. He had a range of weird interactions with LML Day 1, including his late jump on the LML wagon after never talking about him and LML's strange OMGUS-y response (which none of his other attackers triggered).

This is a bad vote. I am totally convinced PJ is obvtown now. The way that LML went after PJ seemed genuine, more real then his other attacks; LML he was really trying to lynch PJ, both because PJ was trying to lynch LML and because PJ looked lynchable. One of the big scumtells I had on LML was the difference between the PJ vote, who he seemed like he was really trying to lynch, and his other wagons, which looked like he didn't really care.

[Save The Dragons]

The wagon I'd like to look at personally is the KK wagon of T minus 24 hours.

Yeah, yeah, I know. I don't know if KK is scum, and if he is, then it's all moot. But if he isn't, I'm not convinced that it was helpful to basically use your vote to try and get someone to produce content with so little time left in the day.

There seems to be movement in a DGB-wardly direction, so I'll start there.

DGB:

I'll go a step further. CTD is on the NERVERLYNCH list. He's that town.

Porochaz is scum.

So far, scum is Porochaz & LML with a hint of pj who seems to be trying to frame players rather than scum hunt, and chamber because you know what? Maybe he's just a little TOO chipper.

I'm confused about neverlynch, I'm not sure it's a great idea to stick your neck out so far, but that could just be playstyle. If you knew he was town, however, it wouldn't hurt. At the same time, you probably could never vote him without being

Now that it's been a month, does the NEVERLYNCH of CTD still hold?

You mentioned this as your reasoning for Porochaz

The combination of RL excuses and the posting style prior to said excuses smell of scum avoiding the game.

When you called Porochaz out as scum, this was before the anouncement he made concerning his grandmother.

He voted for Glork, decided to vote MafiaSSK, alerts us that he's going to have limited access (and yet some how manages to find a computer and make a classy post discussing the nature of the letter p).

So, game starts on May 13. Two days later he mentions he has LA for that weekend. Before that, he did manage to post something related to the game, so I'm not exactly sure where prior he was avoiding the game.

Therefore, your scum read is not based on the first part, since it happened before, and is based on the second part on a player with LA? I'll admit the LA wasn't on the entirety of the time, but he did manage to make a few posts during that time.

Zorblag is town.

That one made me wary at the time, but thinking about it, I don't know if it really means anything unless Zorblag flips.

eh I'm totally happy to lynch either LML or Bookitty at this point

Thanks for being so obvious!

VOTE: Untrod Tripod

Not sure what's obvious about this (it doesn't help that LML flipped scum. It looks like you had town reads on both of them). But I can think of at least one (awesome and handsome) player that vocalized this same opinion and who you have a town read on.

Let's do this:

VOTE: Untrod Tripod

Iso him and find your own reasons!

As town this isn't really helpful. If you're scum and UT is town, you're basically asking someone else to make a case for you.

VOTE UNTROD TRIPOD

OLDY MAFIA'S ROB FORD

Okay, I lol'd at that.

Oh alright, since you guys don't want to lynch the obvscum among us:

VOTE: KK

You made no case, you just seem to be gung-ho on UT. Then you want to jump on a last minute bandwagon, which honestly feels like a distraction. regardless of what Oldy 1 was like, I would not count on THIS particular town to get their heads together and lynch someone with 24 hours to spare.

vote: DGB

[Yosarian2]

I am totally confident PJ is town.

CTD also got a ton of townie points for that hammer. The hammer was an extremely pro-town move. All he had to do was not post for another hour or so, and there might have been a no-lynch instead of a scum lynch.

Kublai Kahn (Tigris's replacement) also looks more town, because of that weirdness I pointed out with LML's random vote on Tigras, followed by LML claiming Tigris actaully looked scummy, followed by LML saying it was just a random vote, followed by him trying to have it both ways. I don't think LML would have acted in that weird way if Tigris was a scumbuddy.

Save the Dragons is also still very much town.

DGB looks a little worse now, with her absurd "I'd rather lynch no one then LML" stuff at the end of the day; when would you ever rather no-lynch then lynch on day 1? This would be a bigger scumtell if it wasn't so blatent, but it's still pretty disturbing.

InHim also looks a little worse.



My biggest suspects right now, though, are Mathcam, undo, and Cogito Ergo Sum. CES is probably the worst. The laser-like focus on BooKitty looked terrible, the scumlist he listed here was just godaweful

Scum team: Seol/ABR/Green Crayons/DrippingGoofball/Porochaz

He did basically no real scumhunting, and covered for it by pounding on the BooKitty drum all day. Even more damning, he almost totally ignored LML all day, which is just bizzare considering the incredible amount of attention LML had basically all day.

Vote:Cogito Ergo Sum

Like I said, I also wouldn't mind an undo lynch; note that these are the only two posts Undo had from June 7th through June 11th:

Just stopping by to express my disappointment with Bookitty's wagon losing steam.

@Porochaz: thanks man.

My vote stays where it is.

And mathcam just looks dodgy. CES, though, is probably the most likely to be scum here today.

[VitaminR]

Well, found a bit of extra time.

I think a

Vote: petroleumjelly

is in order. He had a range of weird interactions with LML Day 1, including his late jump on the LML wagon after never talking about him and LML's strange OMGUS-y response (which none of his other attackers triggered).

This is a bad vote. I am totally convinced PJ is obvtown now. The way that LML went after PJ seemed genuine, more real then his other attacks; LML he was really trying to lynch PJ, both because PJ was trying to lynch LML and because PJ looked lynchable. One of the big scumtells I had on LML was the difference between the PJ vote, who he seemed like he was really trying to lynch, and his other wagons, which looked like he didn't really care.

See, I totally agree that LML's pursuit of pj felt different (that's what that second point refers to), but I came to different conclusions. I remember LML as someone who can bus hard as scum and my first thought was that he might have doing his best on his pj attack in order to create distance between them. Your explanation is possible too (I didn't think of it, tbh), I suppose, but then why not just go after BooKitty? It didn't seem like he was concerned with lynchability at all with any of his other attacks.

[DrippingGoofball]

I think a

Vote: petroleumjelly

is in order. He had a range of weird interactions with LML Day 1, including his late jump on the LML wagon after never talking about him and LML's strange OMGUS-y response (which none of his other attackers triggered).

This is a bad vote. I am totally convinced PJ is obvtown now. The way that LML went after PJ seemed genuine, more real then his other attacks; LML he was really trying to lynch PJ, both because PJ was trying to lynch LML and because PJ looked lynchable. One of the big scumtells I had on LML was the difference between the PJ vote, who he seemed like he was really trying to lynch, and his other wagons, which looked like he didn't really care.

Eons ago I played with LML and we were both scum. We bus'ed each other insanely all of day 1 and I ended up being the lynch. He coasted to victory.

[Yosarian2]

Well, found a bit of extra time.

I think a

Vote: petroleumjelly

is in order. He had a range of weird interactions with LML Day 1, including his late jump on the LML wagon after never talking about him and LML's strange OMGUS-y response (which none of his other attackers triggered).

This is a bad vote. I am totally convinced PJ is obvtown now. The way that LML went after PJ seemed genuine, more real then his other attacks; LML he was really trying to lynch PJ, both because PJ was trying to lynch LML and because PJ looked lynchable. One of the big scumtells I had on LML was the difference between the PJ vote, who he seemed like he was really trying to lynch, and his other wagons, which looked like he didn't really care.

See, I totally agree that LML's pursuit of pj felt different (that's what that second point refers to), but I came to different conclusions. I remember LML as someone who can bus hard as scum and my first thought was that he might have doing his best on his pj attack in order to create distance between them. Your explanation is possible too (I didn't think of it, tbh), I suppose, but then why not just go after BooKitty? It didn't seem like he was concerned with lynchability at all with any of his other attacks.

Eh. His attack on PJ just looked like a scum trying to get rid of a threat, and PJ at the time was a huge threat to LML. I commented at the time that his PJ vote looked very OMGUSish; I found the timing extremely suspicious, because LML turned on PJ right after PJ voted for LML.

Most of LML's voting patterns seemed to just be him doing fake scumhunting to try to look like he was doing something, none of it looked like he was really trying, but in PJ's case, I got the impression that LML really wanted him dead.

If you look at his voting pattern, most of LML's votes look like OMGUS votes, attacking people who were attacking him (STD, UT, PJ). PJ was the most serious threat, and the only one that had a real wagon on him, so he tried a lot harder on that one. He probably didn't go after BooKitty because BooKitty wasn't going after him for most of the day; if he had made a case on BooKitty, she probably would have turned on him, which would have lowered his odds of survival.

Also, the best case scenario for the scum team would have been a no-lynch on day 1, which almost happened, so he was probably perfectly happy trying to push a minor third-tier wagon at the end of the day to lower the odds of a lynch happening at all.

[mathcam]

Well, kudos to those of you who called it on LML -- I really didn't see it. And I apologize for not being around near the deadline yesterday -- I for some reason figured the deadline would be 11:59pm EST, and by the time I got there, the deed was done. In any case, I'm really in need of a reread at this point.

[Glork]

lol @ dgb votes.

If you legit think that she is scum because she defended LML D1, you're in the wrong game.

[DrippingGoofball]

currently voting for me:

Untrod Tripod,

petroleumjelly

,

Kublai Khan

, Sotty7,

Save the Dragons

LML bus'ers:

Green Crayons, Yosarian2,

petroleumjelly

,

Save the Dragons

, Porochaz,

Kublai Khan

, VitaminR

Two out of

PJ, STD & KK

are scum.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Green Crayons, what has Yosarian done to make you think he's so strongly town?

[petroleumjelly]

lol @ dgb votes.

If you legit think that she is scum because she defended LML D1, you're in the wrong game.

FoS: Glork

Why is it you have to continually twist cases into their weakest shapes in order to argue against them? And why are you doing that as opposed to pursuing your

own

preferred lynches?

Take a look at the thread. Not a single person voting for DrippingGoofball has said they are voting her for her

because

she defended LoudmouthLee. At best Kublai Khan has said he wants DrippingGoofball to answer his question from Day One (which was, in fact, asking

how

DrippingGoofball got a Townread on LoudmouthLee), and Save the Dragons has mentioned that it certainly does not

help

her.

I

think her Porochaz case was awful, and I also think her "method" for picking out suspicions (which is reliant on the veracity of LoudmouthLee's "bus" comment, and now relying on players who are voting for her) is similarly awful. And of course, her willingness to

No Lynch

over lynching LoudmouthLee is

at best

awful strategy. She instead pushed on Kublai Khan, a lynch pretty much guaranteed not to happen. Her choices for votes to me look arbitrary and not like actual scumhunting.

You are quite literally arguing against a theory

nobody

has announced using as their crux for voting DrippingGoofball. Were you simply

expecting

DrippingGoofball to draw some fire because of her defense of LoudmouthLee?

You say VitaminR is the lynch today. Then why aren't you voting for him? Where's your case?

[Albert B. Rampage]

PJ thoughts on Untrod Tripod, mathcam and Yosarian?

[petroleumjelly]

PJ thoughts on Untrod Tripod, mathcam and Yosarian?

1.)

Untrod Tripod has a very slight Townread from me.

LoudmouthLee and Untrod Tripod crossvoted to a certain (lazy) extent, and I can draw no indications on alignment in either direction based on those votes, although mentally I find myself thinking Untrod Tripod is more likely to be Town even with the lack of reasoned-out pursuit for LoudmouthLee.

My biggest problem with Untrod Tripod is how excited he claims to have been about the game in addition to her stated preference for playing Town as compared to his posting in this game (where he is apparently doing most of his thinking/dissecting internally).

I would prefer to see more posts from Untrod Tripod before trying to come down on one side of the fence.

2.)

mathcam I strongly suspect.

I did not like MafiaSSK's play. To recap: he tried to justify a joke vote as more than it was. He made a bad case on Cogito Ergo Sum based on the "Seol tunnel." He then tried to connect CrashTextDummie to Cogito Ergo Sum for a bad reason, and when that was explained to him, he kept trying to hang on to the connection. When his play was criticized, he tried to defend it on the basis he had "generated discussion." After pressure let up on him, he stopped posting. He made an unnecessary assumption that the Mafia in this game do not have Daytalk. When I asked him pointed questions concerning a potential LoudmouthLee-MafiaSSK pairing and why he assumed the Mafia do not have Daytalk, he failed to answer and instead replaced out.

LoudmouthLee, while he did FoS MafiaSSK early, did not really pursue MafiaSSK and seemed more than content to simply waggle his finger at MafiaSSK and do nothing further.

mathcam's replace-in has done nothing to change my mind that the slot is scum. He started by supporting MafiaSSK's suspicion of Cogito Ergo Sum to the extent of leaving his vote there instead of placing it on his top suspect. I highly doubt that Cogito Ergo Sum would actually be mathcam's top suspect at that point of the game. I specifically asked him for his opinion on LoudmouthLee, and he started with a "slight scum read" on him (along with Bookitty), but later declined to agree that LoudmouthLee was as good a vote as Bookitty (the Green Crayons/mathcam discussion), and clarified later that LoudmouthLee was in his "top 5 scummiest". And yet today he claims he "didn't really see it," despite not seeing a single post from LoudmouthLee that looked Town.

I am also not happy that he has yet to answer my questions to him from Day One, though for now I am not letting myself draw negative inferences from it on the assumption he has been unable to find the time.

3.)

Yosarian2 also has a slight Townread. He would have a stronger Townread if I were not cautious about his scumplay. He had multiple chances to take the game in directions other than LoudmouthLee on Day One but seemed to continually circle the drain back towards that topic. I did not get the feel overly much that he was bussing. His continued suspicions on Day Two also seem reasonable to me, even though I do not agree with all of them.

(And his defense of me also makes me want to think he is more likely to be Town, though I try not to let things like that influence me overly much).

[Save The Dragons]

lol @ dgb votes.

If you legit think that she is scum because she defended LML D1, you're in the wrong game.

lol

----

When LML complained about being bus'ed, this is what his wagon looked like:

LoudmouthLee (11) -- Green Crayons, Yosarian2, petroleumjelly, Save the Dragons, Porochaz, Kublai Khan, VitaminR

I have solid town reads on STD, Yosarian & VitaminR - and I think Green Crayons.

...leaving PJ, Poro & KK.

currently voting for me:

Untrod Tripod,

petroleumjelly

,

Kublai Khan

, Sotty7,

Save the Dragons

LML bus'ers:

Green Crayons, Yosarian2,

petroleumjelly

,

Save the Dragons

, Porochaz,

Kublai Khan

, VitaminR

Two out of

PJ, STD & KK

are scum.

lol