NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[MrBuddyLee]

Why would you think this game is fun for me? Why is it "weird" that it is not?

I dunno, I could have sworn you took occasional pleasure in the chase, particularly after a job well done. But I'll retract my comments if you say I'm wrong about that, sorry.

[DrippingGoofball]

Come on guys, we can lynch PJ.

At last he checks my town meta and blows his own case against me out of the water yet he does not unvote.

He dismissed my cases in a very dishonest way; while I do trust a small number of town reads, I did review several reads up into the town column, or in the scum column. I also specifically mentioned that while I mention some wagons are laden with my town reads, that it's a proxy measurement and I don't give these a lot of credence. More importantly, he's ignoring my basic assumption that LML was X-bus'ing because he was himself guilty of X-bus'ing.

BUT THIS is the kicker:
PJ glosses over his bizarre vote swings between ABR and myself by calling it "

unexplained

pressure" on ABR. Here is the actual quote:

My Albert B. Rampage vote was placed a time where

I thought the (unexplained) pressure might get a semi-informative reaction from Albert B. Rampage.

I moved back to voting DrippingGoofball after reading through the latest and thinking she had the best likelihood of flipping scum.

Below is the

exquisitely detailed

explanation that PJ himself provided for his ""

unexplained

pressure" on ABR:

Echoing KK: Can both pj and Glork explain their switch to ABR? I don't get how his Post 1144 prompted those votes.

Two reasons.

First,

the "breathe in, breathe out" commentary towards Glork's alleged "tilt" does not seem sincere or necessary. I don't like it.

And second,

Albert B. Rampage alleged he had "looked into the players bussing LoudmouthLee" and decided mathcam was the worst (and maybe CrashTextDummie), but neither of those players had voted LoudmouthLee. Even if I was charitable enough to think he

meant

Bookitty when he said LoudmouthLee, the use of the word "bus" would still be wrong unless Bookitty is also scum (which then begs the question why Albert B. Rampage is not voting for Bookitty). It suggests that Albert B. Rampage has fairly artificial suspicions given that his single sentence must be read to have

two

mistakes in order to make any sense

.

PJ is not even paying attention to his own cases, his own reasonings, he is not internally consistent and he's blindly and carelessly pushing scum agendas against townies because he's sore that he was cornered into a 1-1 against his buddies and now they are one man down already.

Come on everybody, we can do this. We can have two scums down by day 2.

[DrippingGoofball]

If PJ flips scum, so will ABR.

[Green Crayons]

@mathcam:

Really? I feel like I've been one of the most active players today, and with reasonably content-filled posts. I think I'm more willing than most to say "I don't have a read on suchandsuch," but I wouldn't call that not playing. *shrug*

I think I have a fairly good grasp at remembering broad strokes impressions about players. So, without looking into your ISO, I thought of only two things when I thought about you: (1) you want to lynch ABR because of his move away from the LML wagon (I don't see how this, standing alone, justifies a lynch, and question whether your aversion to his play style is also somehow skewing your position because you agreed that this was the only real point you have against ABR), and (2) you ask a lot of questions about whether so-and-so usually plays like such-and-such.

It's not so much that there isn't content, it's just that it isn't content that's affirmative scum-hunting.

-----

@DGB:

UT: Because he's playing town.

ABR: Because he's playing town.

How, exactly?

UT:

- I liked his D1 play with respect to Vitamin and LML -- it hit all the same notes that I was feeling, so I qualify it as town play.
- I don't find his D1 stance on Zorblag or Bookitty as indicative of alignment, but I will say that I can't figure out why he voted Bookitty.
- The UT/DGB back and forth, in retrospect, looks more like two town going at each other rather than scum v. town.
- I was really tempted to do an undo vote even though I have misgivings about the wagon for the exact same reason that UT stated: to get the game moving. So even though ABR qualified this as an anti-town vote, I actually think in context it's a null-to-protown because my goodness D2 has gone nowhere in finding scum.

ABR:

- This is a much more "feely" opinion. I feel like I can easily read where his suspicions lie, and why he's willing to vote people. Although I don't always agree with his positions, I don't find them to be unreasonable -- just that I disagree about the interpretation of the suspicious play.

[VitaminR]

I'm up for lynching pj, but I don't know if enough other people are.

[DrippingGoofball]

I'm up for lynching pj, but I don't know if enough other people are.

We don't have a eternity for opinion polls before we cast votes. If you're up for lynching him, vote him.

[Glork]

I'm content with a PJ lynch.

Vote: PJ

[Green Crayons]

@DGB:

I mean, your "kicker" argument rests upon the fact that you ignore that PJ did vote ABR without explanation, and then only posted his explanation (that you quoted) after ABR had corrected his mistake (which had prompted PJ's vote) and after Vitamin asked PJ to explain his vote.

-----

Going to do a reread of D2 before voting.

[DrippingGoofball]

PJ was asked what the reason for his vote was.

He said it was an unexplained vote for pressure. ABR had already bungled, showing that he is not paying attention to the game, and Glork jumped on him. When PJ voted ABR, following Glork's leadership, he did have very specific reasons.

How about PJ trying to meta a player looking ONLY a this player's recent scum game, inflating this into a whole handful of numbered paragraphs, and not looking at any town game? Is that trying to crucify a townie because the scum is already one man down, or is it an honest scum hunting effort?

[Green Crayons]

I still don't see the kicker argument. Unexplained is what his vote was when it was made, even if it had reasons behind it. It became explained when he was asked about it.


I do credit your meta argument, though. My vote followed PJ's meta argument after dithering to myself for a short while. One of my problems in committing was that PJ hadn't looked at more than a single game. I told myself at the time that that was fine because it was your (DGB, the target of the meta) burden to explain how your play is less like your scum games by coming up with town games in which your play in this game is similar to.

I realize now that I was looking at it from the wrong perspective. (Frankly, I was getting tired of not knowing how to feel about you, had been wavering towards voting you, and was probably just looking for a good reason to vote moreso than a good reason to vote scum.) A town player using meta wouldn't go only to a scum game, but would instead also check and make sure that their arguments based on comparisons to a scum game aren't undercut by similar comparisons to a town game.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Unvote, vote PJ

I can throw my support behind this, as promised.

[Untrod Tripod]

vote PetroleumJelly

let's do it. blood for the blood god.

[chamber]

I need to do my due diligence before I vote for PJ.

[Sotty7]

If PJ flips scum, so will ABR.

Why exactly?

More specifically what has generated your ABR scum read? You said that you would expect ABR to be more "all in" when it came to bussing LML has that opinion changed? You don't think you can read him objectively but you are pretty convinced with your PJ case to make a statement like that must mean you think ABR is scum. I just feel like you are trying to stand on both sides of the fence here. Do the two of you have more of history than this game?

[Bookitty]

My notes are at home and I am at work, but I'm still very okay with my Undo vote. I stopped right before the LML/PJ fight, but before that I don't think I had anything bad against PJ in terms of interaction with LML. I'll check later tonight though.

[DrippingGoofball]

If PJ flips scum, so will ABR.

Why exactly?

Contigent on PJ-scum, it looks like impulsive distancing followed by regrets and a change of course. If PJ-town, I still refuse to have a read on ABR.

What's

your

take on PJ's move, Sotty?

Do the two of you have more of history than this game?

Oh god yes.

[Save The Dragons]

Don't worry, chamber. This post contains no quotes!

----

From the vanity aspect, I feel like I'm slowly being slid into DGB's scum reads from town position. In 888 I wasn't a "bussing" candidate. In 919 I went into a 2/3 chance of being scum (of note at that point DGB isn't even voting any of the 3 she's singled out). Eventually it became "voting the wagon du jour," which I suppose is at least an explanation. In 1436 I'm scum, less likely than PJ, but pretty much scum with PJ. In my column in her two analysis posts (989 is the other), there's nothing new written between the two.

For DGB: What does PJ and I voting together imply, by the way? If I took the effort, do you think I could find some other pairs that seemed to vote together a lot?

Your vote movements section has a lot of facts and a few opinions in it, some of them were already known. You've added a lot of your townie reads and gave one reason for each of them, which is illustrative, but not necessarily telling.

Nothing you've written about UT in these analysis posts implies a reason you thought he was scum at the time of his vote. Quoting his willingness to vote for either wagon isn't much of a reason, and your post asking people to ISO him and find their own reasons also comes before any analysis you have on UT.

Overall I'm not seeing the huge difference (other than time) in the two analysis posts.

Question for (anyone, really). If DGB had posted 1436 in place of 989 (barring any time discrepencies), would the day have turned out differently? Does anyone else feel like she did glorify this analysis?

Or am I just missing the amazingness that is DGB's analysis due to confirmation bias?

tl;dr: still like DGB. Having trouble putting aside the MANY things she's done that appear anti-town in favor of one post that doesn't impress me, but clearly I'm missing something.

----

Personally I'm not opposed to a PJ lynch. The problem is I don't think DGB and PJ are scum together, so I want to hit the target that I think is more likely to flip red. But there's a lot of things that PJ has done that has made me go "hrrm?" and if we do lynch him today and he comes up scum, I'd definitely reassess my DGB read. So if PJ is the lynch, I'd vote him.

If glork or undo is the lynch, I probably wouldn't vote unless to hammer.

I want to take a closer look at matcham, MBL, and Glork but I probably won't get to all of them before the deadline.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I made that list to find and analyse NEW suspects. Why would I include mathcam if he was already on my suspect list?

Because if you're town, you're looking to find scum, not a nice group of suspects you can smear?

Once again: I was looking to find scum among that group; I never said all scum was contained in that group, and I never said all my previous suspects were cleared.
Seriously, it's not rocket science. Not that hard to understand.

No worries, I understood it exactly; you were content to just let mathcam remain one among many suspects.

I'll vote pj if chamber does; I don't really have the time right now to do the sort of research that would make me comfortable making that vote right now when mathcam and undo are right here acting scummy.

[DrippingGoofball]

So if PJ is the lynch, I'd vote him.

What's this business about polling everyone before casting one's vote? Just vote, why do you need permission? VitaminR did it too, and all I can think is:

"are these professional pollsters just waiting to see that the wagon on their buddies is big enough that they'll be compelled to bus???"

You even did that for the scumLML wagon, let me jog your memory:

If later in the day we all decide to lynch LML, please, please, please don't be surprised if I jump on that wagon hardcore

You waited for the wagon on scumLML to reach a critical mass before voting. Why are you repeating this pattern for PJ? Do you only vote for large wagons? Oh wait - I notice that you are the FIRST voter on my wagon. That's interesting.

But there's a lot of things that PJ has done that has made me go "hrrm?"

Pray tell, what has PJ done that has made you go "hrrm?" I'm VERY interested because thus far you your voiced concerns about PJ are very faint and smell of distancing more than an actual suspicion. Can you convince me that you actually suspect PJ, and not just calling him scum like a distancing cricket?

Further, with regards to players with suspicious stances on ABR & myself, you chose to focus on mathcam, and ask him the below question, let me again jog your memory:

How likely do you think a DGB-ABR pairing is?

However with regards to this very issue you have left PJ unmolested (despite your few hints that you suspect PJ). I would like to know why you found mathcam's stance bothersome enough, but completely ignored PJ doing the same thing a lo-o-o-o-o-ot worse. Why did you choose to challenge mathcam and not PJ?

Thanks ahead for taking the time to answer my many questions.

[DrippingGoofball]

I want to take a closer look at matcham, MBL, and Glork but I probably won't get to all of them before the deadline.

Oh and here's another question; if you're pressed for time, why focus on these three players instead of prioritizing PJ that you claim to suspect?

[DrippingGoofball]

Meanwhile I looked at PJ's interactions with STD. They are very few; what there is, is very neutral in tone, and very "arm's length" - mostly answering other people asking about STD, so predominantly third party interactions.

Honestly, I don't know. I do not have a good grasp on Save the Dragons' play.

[Save The Dragons]

Please forgive me if I get a little aggressive. These arguments have always caused me stress and the last thing I want to do is cause you undue stress right now.

Also sorry chamber, right here we got ourselves a good ol' fashion quote war.

----

So if PJ is the lynch, I'd vote him.

What's this business about polling everyone before casting one's vote? Just vote, why do you need permission?

Uh...I don't need permission, I want to vote for YOU. If there's a chance we can lynch you, I'm clinging on to that hope. Was that not clear?

If not, PJ is my next favorite target, I've been questioning his play this entire game.

If I had like 3 votes I'd be a happy camper and just sit back and awesomness would ensue.

But let's be honest. Deadline is in 4 days. D1 ended with a couple hours to go. Lynching you may not happen. PJ is a good compromise in my opinion.

You waited for the wagon on scumLML to reach a critical mass before voting.

I was vote 6, I believe? What does critical mass mean to you?

Do you only vote for large wagons? Oh wait - I notice that you are the FIRST voter on my wagon. That's interesting.

Maybe I'm just tired but I have no idea what your point is. I vote for people who I think are scum, sometimes for pressure but mostly for that first reason. And I don't think I was the first on your wagon anyway.

My suspicions of PJ mostly are marked from this post (it's a post you quoted from, interestingly enough).

I also really don't like anything about this:

7.)

I need both of you to trust me. Right now, okay? Please just work with me here, and I promise I will explain everything later, okay?

FoS: Albert B. Rampage

. May switch my vote soon.

1.)

Why did you feel the need to telegraph a potential vote change?

I originally had switched my vote while writing my post, but as I pared it down I downgraded to a FoS. Albert B. Rampage's post was so outrageously out of place that I could see myself just switching my vote the next morning even without more content being added.

Given Albert B. Rampage was apparently just quoting something, the FoS is retracted.

I don't follow why this wasn't just a vote, considering with nothing new changing you were willing to vote. If you wanted to keep pressure on MafiaSSK, why would you switch (with no new content), and if you didn't, why wouldn't you?

I'll admit it was a silly thing for ABR to say. But it was said in a rapidfire of weird posts (that I didn't get the reference to either). If you think he was faking breadcrumbing a power role, for instance, it seems like a weird way to go about it, especially when there was only a little pressure his way.

<Snip>

Vote: PJ

This one is kind of a reiteration of my previous case (but it also means you had two chances to find it).

I'm still pretty happy with PJ. The whole "weak" vs. "strong" doesn't sit well with me. The other problem is the whole ABR thing. I completely agree that "give me X days" or "trust me" is a scum tell. A lesser point is that there was more going on there, it wasn't just that. It was clear ABR was doing something weird (which turns out to be quoting Breaking Bad). If it were just that, I'd leave it alone. But the greater point is that he played chicken with his vote.

On Day 2, here's a place where I'm questioning his behavior.

On a related note:

Now some follow-up questions for mathcam. It should be noted that I did not realize your +1/-1 system would not even give

post numbers

.

It seems to me you're using your questions to trap people. This seems like a repeat of your VitR baiting yesterday, with the exception that mathcam "stepped in it."

You asked for notes, mathcam deliviered, and you scrutinize it (which is valid because his opinions on LML, Bookitty, and ABR don't match up with his system).

It seems to me that your traps are as likely to catch scum as they are townies who screw up. How do you keep the latter out?

With that in mind, would you like to revise your statement that I've made no case on PJ/seem to have no interest in a case on PJ, or would you like to discredit it somehow? Either way I'm not going to touch the two questions that relate to my lack of case/desire to hone in on PJ since it's not true.

Thanks ahead for taking the time to answer my many questions.

How am I not supposed to think you came to the conclusion that I was scum and are now trying to build a case around it?

How is your little trail of breadcrumbs against me any different from what you are (erroneously) accusing me of doing with PJ? (I mean, except for the scumpairng part).

Further, with regards to players with suspicious stances on ABR & myself, you chose to focus on mathcam, and ask him the below question, let me again jog your memory:

Umm...I asked mathcam because he made a series of posts that with the viewpoint that you are town, make mathcam look bad. I wasn't finding him suspicious for not believing in an ABR-DGB scumpairing. Hell I never even said I found mathcam suspicious, just that it piqued my curiosity and that I wanted to go chasing through his posts to give him a second look.

I feel like now I might be wasting my time. My read was conditional on you being town and I don't think I'm going to ever be convinced of that.

Meanwhile I looked at PJ's interactions with STD. They are very few; what there is, is very neutral in tone, and very "arm's length" - mostly answering other people asking about STD, so predominantly third party interactions.

Honestly, I don't know. I do not have a good grasp on Save the Dragons' play.

I like how you've already said this.

(6)

"Honestly, I don't know. I do not have a good grasp on Save the Dragons' play. LoudmouthLee's reasons were weak, but that is consistent with Save the Dragons being of either alignment."

I think this points to PJ & STD being scum together.

[DrippingGoofball]

Lots of strangeness.

[Porochaz]

I got bored during that reread and it wasn't the most in depth rereading of all time, I'll try and go back over it at some point. MBL Im not sure you are going to get that mathcam read any time soon, I haven't felt overly bad things about him in a while. ABR might be more interesting now, seeing as beyond old playstyle Im not remembering why I thought he was town. But...

The big issue for me here is, I don't see the big deal in DGB's analysis post. I don't think it's indicative of alignment and I certainly don't think it forgives her past transgressions. Her case on PJ isn't very good, and neither is the wagon that followed. I don't think I know any of your reasons for going for it beyond it being the new "flavour of the week". However I do agree with DGB that the people on the sidelines gauging opinion first, not exactly a town reaction there.

So let me be clear, I won't be voting PJ. My read on him is not the best, I struggle with him, that is my problem however and not his. What I do note though is that I don't have anything outstanding on him and with a fuckton of better votes - undo, glork, DGB, not only do I see little reason to change my vote, I worry about those who have.

[Porochaz]

I don't think I know any of your reasons for going for it beyond it being the new "flavour of the week".

Just another clarification, because my English is not very good, being from the UK and all... Im talking to the wagon after rather than DGB herself.