NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Albert B. Rampage]

Alright, let's get this over with. I'm already sick of this day.

Unvote, vote mathcam

[DrippingGoofball]

Next step is that we should look at the players starting from the top, and pass their behavioral tells through a fine tooth comb. We might find important incriminating or innocenting information.

[Bookitty]

Did you subtract the negative points on the final result, DGB? I'm trying to work out how you figured it.

[DrippingGoofball]

Did you subtract the negative points on the final result, DGB? I'm trying to work out how you figured it.

The negative points were subtracted.

[Bookitty]

I did an Excel spreadsheet based on your previous figures and came up with some different results. Some are the same, though, so either your math is wrong or mine is.

[DrippingGoofball]

This is what I got (no formatting, takes too long)

Green Crayons 4.5454545455 4.5454545455 11.3636363636 11.3636363636 31.8181818182
Sotty7 4.5454545455 8 16 16 11.4285714286 55.974025974
MafiaSSK/mathcam 4.5454545455 11.4285714286 15.974025974
Cogito Ergo Sum 4.5454545455 6.6666666667 16 10 37.2121212121
Porochaz 4.5454545455 4.5454545455 11.3636363636 8 6.6666666667 35.1212121212
Tigris/KublaiKhan 4.5454545455 11.3636363636 8 11.4285714286 35.3376623377
Save the Dragons 4.5454545455 11.3636363636 -19.3181818182 18.1818181818 11.3636363636 8 16 10 60.1363636364
Seol/Bookitty 4.5454545455 -19.3181818182 18.1818181818 11.3636363636 16 10 40.7727272727
chamber 6.6666666667 11.4285714286 18.0952380952
Yosarian2 11.3636363636 6.6666666667 11.4285714286 29.4588744589
MrBuddyLee 11.3636363636 6.6666666667 18.0303030303
VitaminR 11.3636363636 -19.3181818182 18.1818181818 11.3636363636 11.4285714286 33.0194805195
Albert B. Rampage 11.3636363636 -19.3181818182 18.1818181818 8 16 10 11.4285714286 55.6558441558

The last value is the total.

What do you have?

[Bookitty]

STD 60.2
Sotty7 56.7
CES 55.4
GreenCrayons 43.2
ABR 37.5
chamber 36.3
KK 35.3
Porochaz 35.1
mathcam 34.1
Yosarian2 29.5
Bookitty 29.3
MBL 18.1
VitaminR 14.9
DGB 11.4

I have mathcam with one more 18.2 than you do. I didn't carry out decimal points past one, and mine is wrong too:

4.5 +18 +11 +16 +10 =50.5 by your figures - 19 =31.5, right?

[VitaminR]

As Glork pointed out, it looked like you selected LML out of several players who had done the same thing and accused LML over those other players. LML echoed Glork's argument without attribution later on to defend himself against you.

To me, restating someone else's argument as part of your own without noting where it came from looks like borrowed justification for a vote on a scum partner.

To start with, I think I explained why LML stuck out for me (and I was right!). You even cited it above.

I wasn't restating someone else's argument. First of all, that was just one post in a series of posts describing why I thought LML felt off. In addition to that, ABR just made a one-line comment that happened to reach a similar conclusion. I wasn't echoing ABR. I just happened to use the phrase "inspire confidence" also.

I think you're twisting things unfavorably in my direction here, in a way that's not really fair.

Why are you certain that CES is town?

I happen to know CES quite well and I feel like there are way more town tells in his play so far than usual. He stuck his neck out to make a case against you Day 1, which he wouldn't do as scum (I noted this at the time). He also very quickly read chamber as town Day 1, in the same way that I did, which makes me think we're approaching the game the same way. The way he has reacted to ABR's case on me I think also fits more with him as town, but I'm less certain about that tell.

[Bookitty]

er, I don't know where I got the 18. My head is pounding from math anyway. I think I was looking at mathcam.

4.5 +11.4 +6.7 +16 +10 = (using a calculator): 48.6 - 19.3 = 29.3

[DrippingGoofball]

Bookitty you're right about mathcam & yourself, I have fixed my spreadsheet, thanks for double checking. I think you're wrong in actual number for mathcam though.

REVISED

60.1 Save the Dragons
56.0 Sotty7
55.7 Albert B. Rampage
47.4 Seol/Bookitty
37.2 Cogito Ergo Sum
35.3 Tigris/KublaiKhan
35.1 Porochaz
34.2 MafiaSSK/mathcam
33.0 VitaminR
31.8 Green Crayons
29.5 Yosarian2
18.1 chamber
18.0 MrBuddyLee

[DrippingGoofball]

First question:

Could

Save the Dragons

be scum?

[Bookitty]

I was not on the 18.2 wagon, DGB.

And @VitaminR: I haven't done a reread since the VCA and Day Two; I'm going to have to do that soon, but I'm not sure when I'll have time right now. Hopefully over the weekend. But I prefer a mathcam lynch to you because I feel more certain he's scum. I just don't like some of the things I see and I'm going to call them out when I see them.

[Sotty7]

SpyreX

should post something. Something really, really good.

Spryex should die is what he should do.

Vote: Spyrex

Explain this. Seems a strange vote from you.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p5963846

Also the Spyrex slot has been absent two deadline days in a row. Why we aren't lynching this slot right now is insane. We need to pressure the shit out of him to post some actual reads.

So Sotty7 & STD should vote from CES, Bookitty and mathcam. Since mathcam is looking likely scum, Sotty7 & STD probably have a >random chance of hitting scum (unless they're scum of course)

Bookitty was a non factor yesterday which troubled me. I still feel like mathcam is town and I really want more input from CES. I do like the snapshot of this wagon, if I am to take you at face value I would probably vote CES.

I'm under the impression that one of mathcam or DGB is scum, but unlikely both

Can you point me to why it has to be one or the other?

It looks to me like the day 1 Bookitty wagon was probably a scum-driven counterwagon to take the pressure off of LML. I think she's unlikely to be scum.

I like this point.

I'm looking at the scumputer, but I'll admit I don't understand the scumputer. I had an "I would like to stab someone" day of work so I'm putting the blame there for now. I like looking at wagons and going from there. I kinda get what mathcam is saying that it's all a little bit of a reach, but just looking at the flipped players on the wagons is a pretty good indicator of alignment a lot of the time.

DGB, is my high number because I was on a lot of wagons? I think I need a little hand holding to understand the numbers.

[Sotty7]

First question:

Could

Save the Dragons

be scum?

I really don't think so. I have liked his tone and his direction with his pushes. I think he is one of the towniest players here.

[Yosarian2]

There's got to be at least 1 scum on the Bookitty wagon here, probably 2. I'm becoming increasingly confident that CES has to be scum here. Mathcam is also on the suspect list.

Yeah, that's just lazy bullshit. You're really not looking at your own arguments skeptically if you think this is a thing that matters.

How so? I thought that wagon looked scum-driven at the time, and am even more confident of that now that we know LML was scum.

There's no way a nonesense wagon over nothing builds up like that, as a counterweight to a real wagon on an obvious scum, without some scum pushing the wagon.

Anyway, I keep coming back to the fact that this game might have had as many as 5 or 6 scum, and looking over the player list, I keep trying to come up with a scumgroup that doesn't include you, and it's hard to see. Mathcam, VitimanR, maybe Spyrex (although I kind of doubt it), maybe Sotty....and then who?

[Yosarian2]

First question:

Could

Save the Dragons

be scum?

I would be pretty shocked if he was. The way he went after LML, then went to the bookitty wagon, then came back to LML looks like someone who was honestly trying to find scum, not like someone who already knew LML's alignment and was trying to bus. He also made a bunch of plays that don't make sense for day 1 scum-STD play; votes Undo but then defends him later, tries to pick a fight with me for basically no reason, picks a fight with PJ for basically no reason, picks a fight with you...

Plus, this post:

oh but I don't know if I'm ready. my body's saying yes, but my heart is saying yes...

Wait a minute.

Vote: LML

[DrippingGoofball]

I was not on the 18.2 wagon, DGB.

Sotty was though, maybe I input in the wrong line? Anyway I rechecked vertical rows against the number of players in each wagon with this revision:

68.2 Sotty7
60.1 Save the Dragons
55.7 Albert B. Rampage
37.2 Cogito Ergo Sum
35.3 Tigris/KublaiKhan
35.1 Porochaz
34.2 MafiaSSK/mathcam
33.0 VitaminR
31.8 Green Crayons
29.5 Yosarian2
29.3 Seol/Bookitty
18.1 chamber
18.0 MrBuddyLee

Makes sense now?

[DrippingGoofball]

DGB, is my high number because I was on a lot of wagons? I think I need a little hand holding to understand the numbers.

Do you want to look at the average number of points per wagon? I have this too.

14.7 Yosarian2
11.4 Sotty7
9.3 Cogito Ergo Sum
9.0 chamber
9.0 MrBuddyLee
8.8 Tigris/KublaiKhan
8.5 MafiaSSK/mathcam
8.0 Green Crayons
8.0 Albert B. Rampage
7.5 Save the Dragons
7.0 Porochaz
6.6 VitaminR
4.9 Seol/Bookitty

[DrippingGoofball]

Generally I use the total number of points because scum has a tendency to wagon more.

But actually it can be interesting, for instance if you look at those shy wagoners, that are on two wagons each:
Yosarian2
chamber
MrBuddyLee
>>> Yosarian2 looks very bad

The 4-5 wagon voters, namely:
Porochaz
VitaminR
Green Crayons
MafiaSSK/mathcam
Cogito Ergo Sum
Tigris/KublaiKhan
>>>VitaminR & Porochaz look better, CES looks worse

The 6-7-8 wagon voters, namely:
Save the Dragons
Albert B. Rampage
Sotty7
Seol/Bookitty
>>> Bookitty, STD & ABR look a lot better, but Sotty7 looks pretty bad still.

[chamber]

I was easily on more than 2 wagons, I don't know which you are using.

[DrippingGoofball]

I was easily on more than 2 wagons, I don't know which you are using.

MAXWAGONS

[Save The Dragons]

How does the scumputer differentiate between "wagonyness" and "scum?" If you're taking points based on the probability that there's scum on every wagon, then you are forcing anyone who's shifted their vote around a lot to end up with a higher score.

Generally I use the total number of points because scum has a tendency to wagon more.

If that's the end result, why go through all this trouble? Why not just count the players that have bandwagoned? I'm seeing some of the patterns but to be honest I see a bunch of numbers and then there's a couple posts saying XXXX is bad, XXXXX is better, etc. 1867 is unhelpful, it's a copout to a genuine question. I guess...what is the scumputer actually telling you? I'm concerned that we're going to spend the next (real) day or so just trying to decipher/correct/weed through the data when I have no idea what we'll gain from talking about it.

----

I'm under the impression that one of mathcam or DGB is scum, but unlikely both

Can you point me to why it has to be one or the other?

At the end of D2, that was the impression that I got. I looked back and DGB's posts and I suppose I could be wrong (called MafiaSSK town twice D1, for example); I could see a potential pairing (but I'd have to ignore the cop thing).

I do find them both suspicious. But I feel that if DGB is scum, mathcam is probably town due to the cop thing, and if mathcam is scum, his posts in response to DGB make me suspect she is town. I do not think that if one turns up town the other MUST be scum.

[DrippingGoofball]

How does the scumputer differentiate between "wagonyness" and "scum?" If you're taking points based on the probability that there's scum on every wagon, then you are forcing anyone who's shifted their vote around a lot to end up with a higher score.

Scums are

generally

wagonier than townies. But it's not just the "wagoniness" but points based on the probability of each UNFLIPPED player being scum on each wagon after taking the FLIPPED players out of the equation.

Feel free to look at the average number of points per maxwagon if you fancy that.

Also: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p5989500

[DrippingGoofball]

You should be saying that the scumputer is crap because I'm scum.

Not because it favors wagon-happy players.

I think you know I'm town.

[Save The Dragons]

Your probability still takes into consideration that there is scum on every wagon, even if you take out the flipped ones. With this in mind, if I jump on more wagons, I'm going to get more points.

What does the average points per maxwagon imply?

Yes, I saw that post...I quoted it.

You said "yosarian looks really bad." Why? You said VitR, Poro look better, CES looks worse. Why? ...etc.