NY 174: Oldy Mafia 2 (Game Over)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

What am I missing with STD? Why are you voting him?

LmL was pushing him in a weird way and he's sounded very off at times D2 and D3. It's been nagging at for a while now and when Spyspy reminded me of his response to DGb's scumputer, I decided to switch.

CES: I doubt I can give you a satisfactory answer to your question, but in brief, they feel very much like forced perspective. The quote on BooKitty felt oddly worded enough that I could imagine you pretending to be town, pretending to emulate a scum BooKitty and explain her actions. It just didn't seem like a natural thing to say.

Why would I need to double pretend to see the obvious? This seems like a whole lot of talking in order to pretend that oddly worded posts are automatically scum tells.

[Save The Dragons]

Now the remaining steps are less mathematical and a bit more voodoo, because I add up those percentages as "points" for each player in the list and I add them up.

You should be saying that the scumputer is crap because I'm scum.

Is your scumputer crap?

omg ur rite such an unreasonable response.

(For the record, this is the only post quoted by Spyrex, so if something else about my response is fishy I'm not trying to ignore it).

In case you both missed them in favor of being like "look at that one post he said out of context! looks pretty bad, amirite?" here are these posts.

1871
1874

You realize that most people who saw her scumputer before either praised it or didn't touch it with a 10-foot pole, so at best her "fishing for reactions" makes people who have never seen it before stand out, right?

[Save The Dragons]

Is there any scenario where you would decide to your case on me before ABR gets back to you about ISOing me?

Can you restate this? I'm not understanding what you're asking.

I'm just going to cut to the chase on this one: why would I ask "show me your case" if I didn't think you were going to explain why you keep mentioning ABR? If you wanted to share your case, you would have done it, but instead you seemed intent on waiting for some feedback from ABR, so I had no reason to think you would share it.

Thus I don't really understand why it is "interesting" that I asked the question I asked over yours.

[Green Crayons]

It was interesting for the reasons I stated in my original post -- which is more than the fact that you simply did not ask "show me your case."

In response to your earlier post, I don't know whether I would have immediately explained to you or not. At the time, I had thought that you might ask me to explain my position, and I hadn't decided how I would respond if you did, in part because I suspected that ABR would do exactly what he did: not much insofar as what I asked.


At any rate, I'm currently busy, and am going to be on vacation for the rest of the week with limited access.

[chamber]

a) lynching people gives us valuable information
b) I can only vote for one person.

Of course the posts on their own hold up to this, but its the pattern of activity that looks bad, debunk that pattern, don't explain the individual posts.

[MrBuddyLee]

@VitaminR

, you claimed to vote PJ out of the blocks D2 because his interactions with LML were weird:

I think a Vote: petroleumjelly is in order. He had a range of weird interactions with LML Day 1, including his

late jump on the LML wagon after never talking about him

and LML's strange OMGUS-y response (

which none of his other attackers triggered

).

1)

Why did you find PJ's jump to a LML wagon "late"?

In post 417 on May 29th, PJ's first post after the server outage and two weeks before deadline, PJ voted LML, #3 spot on the wagon, with a bulky case. He actually re-infused the wagon that had been defused by STD, ABR, DGB and you leaving it. Especially considering the sizable case PJ made on LML in that post, I'm amazed by your characterization of his vote and posting re: LML. Can you please clarify?

2) Did you also find STD's vote jumps on and off LML suspect? Both PJ and STD got back on LML June 9th, #4 and #5 on the LMLwagon. PJ had been on LML May 29-June 4. STD was on LML May 19th and 20th and then off immediately after the server outage 5/27.

STD's and PJ's vote patterns regarding LML are almost identical, only shifted by a few days.

Why find PJ suspect for that and not STD?

3)

Did you find STD's case on LML more convincing or less "bussy" than PJ's?

You made a big deal about LML and busing (both your D2 votes were on LML-voters), so I'd figure you would have had your eye on both PJ and STD start of D2. I'd like to know why you selectively went after PJ and ignored STD, who was the other obvious bi-directional LML bus candidate.

4) You say no other attackers triggered LML's "strange OMGUS", but LML specifically said that ABR did, and it appears that STD also did.

Would you agree that LML was "strange OMGUSsy" on StD?

[Sotty7]

Why aren't you hounding STD and mathcam about this then?

Because mathcam brought it up... so it's not him.

And I think STD is the scum... I'm voting him... I'd be trying to convince him to vote a townie!

Did you read MBL's post? You really have to vote STD now. If you're town, it's time to reckon that your read on STD is wrong.

I am open more to an STD vote at this point than I was, that much is true. I don't like the "if you're town" connotations to your last few posts in my direction. It just makes me wanna rebel against you. I feel like you are setting me up somehow here, but it's probably you just trying to pressure me into your way or the high the way.

I will say that the rest of your points are pretty valid however, I'm just not fully brought in at this point.

DGB, on the other hand, has abandoned her scumhunting efforts and is looking to buddy and wagon anything that moves. She was trying to get MBL lynched, and MBL posted a generally cohesive and detailed case, so DGB flipped around and votes STD.

She was already voting him. Unless you are talking about her push to get me to vote him.

I basically agree with Yos on StD. I think MBL's case is kinda convincing, but I just have a hard time moving past the strong town feeling I get from his posts.

I also agree with these two. The case makes me look a little harder at STD but he has posted so townie for most of the game I'm having a hard time getting over that. His response looks reasonable too. The fact that CES piggy backs on the wagon with nothing of strength also makes me extremely weary of placing a vote there.

[SpyreX]

Would vote

4)Untrod Tripod

6) DrippingGoofball

8) undo
11) Petroleumjelly

14) LoudmouthLee

20) Yosarian2
21) Seol

Vote: PJ

If later in the day we all decide to lynch LML, please, please, please don't be surprised if I jump on that wagon hardcore.

OH yeah ABR, that's soooooo town LOL

Hey DGB your nitpick on me was broken so I fixed it for you.

Sorry I was wrong partway through D1. Next time I'll try and do better and get 100% accuracy.

On the plus side if STD is scum then (not like there was doubt) the masons are masons cause that shit wasn't planned.

But since it keeps getting brought up:

Is your scumputer crap?

What this isn't is "You are town, but this is bad for X" discussion.
It's also not "You are scum, doing this for Y" pushing.
Its not even "I'm trying to figure you out, lets talk about it" feelings handholding time.

Its a dismissal. Of DGB.

You'll notice chambers post:

Yes. You can see me tearing it a part in oldy1, though she seems to have incorporated some of my criticisms from then.

Isn't the same thing because

he's looking at what it is within a context of what it actually means.

Its not a magic bullet. Its not even (sorry DGB) mega plus accurate. But its a tool and when someone goes OHHH WOAOOAHHH HOLD UP BUCKO I call teaparty writ large.

Also #2156 is the coyest belle at the ball. I want to do a double slam

[MrBuddyLee]

Sotty, you seem to have had a solid townread on ABR all game.. I skimmed his recent game as scum and don't really have a solid grasp on the difference between townABR and scumABR. How would he look different as scum? Does the fact that he doesn't seem to be reading the game consistently carefully and that he's sloppy with details mean anything to you? I feel like people have reminded him of his suspicions or about logical inconsistencies in his arguments a few times and he's corrected course, but the inattention bothers me a bit. Feels a bit like a skimmer.

A few examples:
* Liked LML's crappy case on PJ
* Mixing up two wagons and CTD and cam's place on them
* Found cam town for being molested by VitR, but left cam in his suspect list
* Says vitR's Glorkvote was a throwaway even though ABR just voted Glork
* Thinks cam and Boo could both be scum together, which while possible would mean we had three wagons on scum at deadline
* Suggests Shanba was killed for attacking LML, Boo and cam.. Shanba actually defended LML

While not voting LML, he did direct us towards this specific Bookitty wagon to find "2-3 scum" and told you(Sotty) that as a townie, you didn't belong on it:
(Sotty7, Shanba(t), Cogito Ergo Sum, chamber, Untrod Tripod(t), Save the Dragons, petroleumjelly(t), mathcam, undo(t)).

Bonus points for attacking the Boo-wagon if Boo is town, but we'll see about that 2-3 scum thing.

Not super thrilled that ABR was gone from Sunday 10pm to Wednesday 3PM deadline D1 and then reappeared immediately to post in another game two hours after LML's lynch. Kept him from having to vote or discuss LML near-deadline. Sun-Wed is a weird time to V/LA but that's his claim.

Help me out here on an ABR read, Sotty, thanks.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Liked LML's crappy case on PJ

Guess who else liked it? VitaminR.

[DrippingGoofball]

@ MBL

Not to mention that ABR thinks I've been trying to lynch you (???) and I sheeped you after your case on STD (???) while in fact I'd been voting him for 3 days.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Not to mention that DGB thinks her system works, but not on MBL apparently. #failscum

[DrippingGoofball]

Not to mention that DGB thinks her system works, but not on MBL apparently. #failscum

68.2 Sotty7
60.1 Save the Dragons
55.7 Albert B. Rampage
37.2 Cogito Ergo Sum
35.3 Tigris/KublaiKhan
35.1 Porochaz
34.2 MafiaSSK/mathcam
33.0 VitaminR
31.8 Green Crayons
29.5 Yosarian2
29.3 Seol/Bookitty
18.1 chamber

18.0 MrBuddyLee

LOL still not paying attention

[DrippingGoofball]

68.2

Sotty7

60.1

Save the Dragons

Here's who I am leaning scum on:

UT

, Mathcam,

STD, Sotty

Here's who I have strong scum feelings for:

PJ

One of these two players is scum.

[Albert B. Rampage]

lol no. Nice try tho

[Albert B. Rampage]

I'll go ahead and

vote: Bookitty

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

(For the record, this is the only post quoted by Spyrex, so if something else about my response is fishy I'm not trying to ignore it).

The Urquan just reminded me.

I'm concerned that we're going to spend the next (real) day or so just trying to decipher/correct/weed through the data when I have no idea what we'll gain from talking about it.

and

You said "yosarian looks really bad." Why? You said VitR, Poro look better, CES looks worse. Why? ...etc.

both feel like you're putting real effort into undermining it and making people not take it seriously. Especially given that the scumputer pointed to you but you didn't overly address that aspect of it.

[Save The Dragons]

The F?

What this isn't is "You are town, but this is bad for X" discussion.
It's also not "You are scum, doing this for Y" pushing.
Its not even "I'm trying to figure you out, lets talk about it" feelings handholding time.

Its a dismissal. Of DGB.

That's what THESE are. That's why I posted those posts in my response to CES. Since you seem to be content to ignore any attempt at rationalism, here they are in all their glory, so you cannot ignore them.

How does the scumputer differentiate between "wagonyness" and "scum?" If you're taking points based on the probability that there's scum on every wagon, then you are forcing anyone who's shifted their vote around a lot to end up with a higher score.

Generally I use the total number of points because scum has a tendency to wagon more.

If that's the end result, why go through all this trouble? Why not just count the players that have bandwagoned? I'm seeing some of the patterns but to be honest I see a bunch of numbers and then there's a couple posts saying XXXX is bad, XXXXX is better, etc. 1867 is unhelpful, it's a copout to a genuine question. I guess...what is the scumputer actually telling you? I'm concerned that we're going to spend the next (real) day or so just trying to decipher/correct/weed through the data when I have no idea what we'll gain from talking about it.

Your probability still takes into consideration that there is scum on every wagon, even if you take out the flipped ones. With this in mind, if I jump on more wagons, I'm going to get more points.

What does the average points per maxwagon imply?

Yes, I saw that post...I quoted it.

You said "yosarian looks really bad." Why? You said VitR, Poro look better, CES looks worse. Why? ...etc.

MBL accuses me of being ass-backwards. SpyreX has ONE point against me and this is, what, the second, third time I've pointed out why it's a gross mischaracterization of what I've done?

Vote:SpyreX

[Save The Dragons]

CES:

1) How many times have you seen the scumputer used before?
2) Do you believe it is accurate or not?
3) Do you think that players who have not seen it before are more likely or less likely to respond to any inherent flaws they see in it?
4) Do you think that "what is the scumputer actually telling you?", "what does the average points per maxwagon imply?" "why does these players look bad when you have a group of players with the same apparent result" seems more like an attempt to undermine the scumputer or get to the bottom of all these cryptic posts DGB launched in quick succession upon the town?

Chamber:

I'm not sure what to do about that. I'm trying to paint the picture of what actually happened, not what can be misconstrued as the truth if you look at the end result of me being scum. I don't know why LML said bus, I thought it might have been in regards to PJ but now I suspect he saw a bunch of town on his wagon and chortled to himself while he "slipped" the word bus into his post. Maybe not. I never said anything about it because I wasn't sure it was helpful to look at it at the time. I unvoted him after the break but I don't know why, I don't keep notes or anything. Maybe I thought PJ was more suspicious.

Most of the bandwagons I've jumped off were because people were saying "this person is town," which means I have less shot of lynching them if I think they are suspicious, and my vote no longer causes pressure because they're no longer in danger. I can't see how they're going to respond, I can't tell anything about them. If I kept my vote on them, (like with DGB) it's because I was pretty convinced that the person I'm voting is scum. The fact that I'm all alone in my suspicion of DGB gives me pause.

I have said several times that I wish I had multiple votes, and that I was going to be pretty liberal with my vote, since I don't know if it does any good to park it on someone forever, especially day one (with the exception of the reason I described above, I'm aware I parked my vote on DGB for much of D2 and this day.).

But I mean I can't just say "guys, I'm town. This is ridiculous," because I know you don't know that for sure, because I can see where it could look bad, but it's frustrating to watch people come out of the woodwork trying to throw crappy case after crappy case against me and not getting much of a response back.

[Bookitty]

@MOD:

Could we have a vote count, please?

I checked on the deadline, which is July 15.

At last vote count, there were three-person wagons on Cogito Ergo Sum, Save the Dragons, VitaminR and chamber. (I think ABR took his vote off VitaminR and put it on me since that, though; by the way, OMGUS, Albert :p ) Chamber's wagon is completely composed of our two masons and is certainly town-driven. I'd prefer to avoid the last minute scramble, so I'll say I'm willing to vote VitaminR (I currently am), CES and mathcam. I'm willing to look at others if it helps us reach a consensus.

@CES: VitaminR has defended you and has explained why you have not defended him in the thread. Do you agree that VitaminR has presented an accurate picture of the situation?

I still think Yos is town. I have good townie vibes for MrBuddyLee, Green Crayons, DGB, ABR and chamber as well. Masons are obvtown. Save the Dragons and Sotty7 are not as high on my town list. Anyone not listed in this paragraph is either scummy or needs to post more. Chamber needs to post more even though he is listed.

I still have to get to a question VitaminR asked me. I meant to do this yesterday but instead I fell asleep. I haven't forgotten, but it may need to wait until this evening.

[Save The Dragons]

Unvote

Eh. I need to take a breath. I'm going to take a more critical look at the SpyreX slot when I can.

[mathcam]

ABR:

Serious question: Do you consciously OMGUS vote everyone who votes for you as a psychological ploy to attempt to disincentivize voting for you?

DGB:

Ok yeah, but then you posts things like this, which make it hard to take it seriously when you insinuate that you've been sticking to your scumputer results all along:

I'll point out that it's not rare finding a scum in the cohort of timid wagoners, here:

29.5 Yosarian2
18.1 chamber
18.0 MrBuddyLee
16.0 MafiaSSK/mathcam

I feel like today is proceeding almost exactly like yesterday, except without the benefit of a major revelation the day before. We swim around, attacking each person in turn, until the deadline gets closer, and then like a big game of musical chairs, someone is left without enough people to defend them and they get kicked out. I don't recall ever being so overwhelmed at the sheer number of possible lynch targets. I think I can count on one hand the number of non-me people I think it would be a bad idea to lynch today (STD, Yos, GC, PJ, undo), but have oscillated a lot on a lot of other people. I'd say I'd go do another reread, but I'm not entirely sure it would help. There are a couple of people I haven't paid close enough attention to -- Sotty is one, then maybe KK, Spyrex, and BooKitty in that order -- so I'm going to spend some time on that. Barring any revelations, I'll probably switch to VitaminR if he's still the leading wagon, even though CES seems a stronger bet to me.

[MrBuddyLee]

it's frustrating to watch people come out of the woodwork trying to throw crappy case after crappy case against me and not getting much of a response back.

My case on you wasn't crappy. I'll debate it to death with you if you like, but frankly it'll only entrench things and bore people. I'm not voting you right now because I have my doubts, and because I want to hear PJ's and undo's thoughts. I'm also writing up "crappy" cases on other people to see if they feel any better.

@mathcam

, why did you avoid commenting on my STD case? If STD is on your "never lynch" list and I'm on your "ok to lynch" list, I'd think you'd have something to say about my attempt to ring him up.

[Albert B. Rampage]

ABR: Serious question: Do you consciously OMGUS vote everyone who votes for you as a psychological ploy to attempt to disincentivize voting for you?

OMGUS? Correct me if I'm wrong, I voted VitaminR when he had a townread on me. Bookitty also has a town read on me as far as I know.

[DrippingGoofball]

which make it hard to take it seriously when you insinuate that you've been sticking to your scumputer results all along:

I have been sticking to my results... and other factors... but it's a fact while the scumputer excels at catching the wagony scum, the less-wagony scum is harder to zero in on, but they become easier once the wagonier scum has been eliminated.