In post 1903, Wake1 wrote:I think it's reasonable that there's an Odd-Night Vig, because an Even-Night Vig died. That in no way means there is, but probable. Regardless of one's stance on pro-Town kills, there may very well be an Odd-Night Vig, and I suspect we're looking at multiball.
How is it probably at all? Why would you assume that an even-night vig implies an odd-night vig?
Do you have any reason to believe this whatsoever based on past games?
How have you quantified this to the extent that a second vig is "probable?"
Were there any other PR claims? The reason I ask is because, if there were, why didn't Scum target them? An Odd-Night Town Commuter would seem like a threat for Scum on those Nights. There may be an Even-Night Commuter, too. Whether both of them are Town, Scum, or a mix of either is a good question.
How would a commuter be a threat?
In post 1971, Wake1 wrote:1)
I think it's reasonable to suspect that there may be an Odd-Night Town Vigilante.
Explain the number of NKs both nights, then.
2)
In a game this big, it's plausible that there is an Even and Odd version of a power role.
Show me the precedent.
3)
I would suspect the same if an Even-Night Cop died, that there may be an Odd-Night Cop as well. In fact I just modded a game with that Setup offsite.
What about onsite?
4)
And if that's true, then Night 1 is suspicious, because an Even-Night Vig died, and I reckon that an Odd-Night Vig was active during that Night.
How did we get a second kill last night, given that one of them was a mafioso?
5)
And just theorizing a bit, Night 2 is really odd. There's no Even-Night Vig to kill someone during Night 2. So sans the Even and having the Odd out of commission until Night 3, why were there two kills? That leads me to think we're looking at multiball. It could just be my own faulty perspective on these things, but I think it's important to throw my thoughts out there while I still can.
Where was the third kill Night 1?
6)
Lastly, assuming two non-Vig entities killed reinoe and NS during Night 2 (I'm assuming we're looking at two Scum factions), how does that explain Night 1?
It does not. Because your theory makes no sense whatsoever and you are bad.
7)
Could it be that the Even-Night Vig killed Cabd or Farside, a Scum faction killed the other, and then the remaining Scum faction was blocked... or couldn't perform the kill? That is what I simply wondering.
The chances of that are almost unfathomably low.
Now to those who "seem" to think it is strange for me to muse on these possibilities, at least someone is wondering about this part of the game.
What
concrete
benefit do you get from musing on said possibilities?
In post 1983, Wake1 wrote:My contention is that it's reasonable to suspect there's an Odd-Night Vigilante to complement the Even-Night Vigilante.
You said it was
probable
. How do you justify the assertion that the presence of an odd-night vig is
more likely
than only an even-night vig and two scum factions?
I would do the same if an Even-Night Doctor died in a Large 21-player game. It's common sense to think that that
might
be in the game.
You did not say "might." You said "probable."
That Aegor argues that it's "factually untenable" that makes no sense... tells me he has an ulterior reason to try and quash even the suggestion that there may be two Town Vigs.
omg. I never said it was technically impossible for their to be two night vigs. I am saying that the NKs
strongly
suggest that there is no second vig, and then engaging in pointless speculation about this is completely fruitless.
Like your "reaction tests" that yielded results you were unable to articulate.
And everything else you have done this game.
I do tend to ignore stupid posts, and annoying and noisy ones, too.
I
am a voice of reason, in that I don't viciously fight against the mere possibility of a certain Normal role being included in a Large Normal.
You did not say "possibility." You said
. Are you even paying attention to what you write?
I'm not saying I'm a PR, but if I didn't know better I'd say I feel like I'm being prodded by Scum to discern if I'm one. And for the record my theory makes perfect sense, because it's
entirely possible
that the role is at play. You seem to argue against just the possibility, so I want answers from you on
why
.
Why would scum want to know if you are a PR? You are negative utility regardless, so scum has incentive to keep you alive.
In post 1989, Wake1 wrote:
I told you it's reasonable to think there's an Odd-Night Vig; I even said that "in no way means there is, but probable," yet you put words into my post by asking "why does Even-Night Vig automatically imply an Odd-Night Vig?" I say it's reasonable to think it's possible.
You did NOT SAY possible. You said PROBABLE.
Your last question of "If you think it's mutiball now then why were there not 3 kills N1?" is the one that has me wondering, and I am very interested as to why I'm gaining some resistance by certain folks over this.
Because you espouse a redonkulous theory that just disregards the only facts that should generate and support the theory and then make no attempt to reconcile your theory with said facts.
You
started
with the clear
assumption
that there was an odd-night vig instead of using the NKs to guide your speculation. You then consistently refuse to provide any explanation of how your theory is reconcilable with the facts, and then call others scummy for pointing out the enormous flaws in this thought process.
But this is easily resolved right now: Since you have realized that you were in error and are now simply asserting the
possibility
of an odd-night vig, you admit that an odd-night vig is no more probable than no other vig and two scum factions, correct?
