Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Riddleton]

Looking over this page, Riddleton's 650 is complete bullshit and so is NM's 667.

How so?

[Bins]

Because, contrary to what others are saying, I thought it was very well written.

I still think TheBulge is the better lynch choice. Here's what will happen:-
-If TheBulge flips WW, Wicked would likely be WW. Unsight could also

potentially

be WW too
-If TheBulge flips town, Wicked would likely be town.
-If TheBulge flips mafia, we wouldn't get any other information (unlikely).

My reasons for him are in #599. I'm sure he'd flip WW and I think it's the safer choice in general. There are 3 WWs and we could get two of them from that.

Eh? Three werewolves?

Also, why has no one else pointed out this error? Are y'all reading?

I find this post really fricken odd.

1. Why would Bulge flipping WW likely mean Wicked is WW? Do you really think Wicked would protect his partner that much?
2. Why is Wicked almost cleared with a Bulge town flip? I think it could easily swing either way.
3. Why does a mafia flip give us NO info? That's just an odd statement to make.

[Riddleton]

I told you, I messed up with that post. I know there's only 2 WWs but I put 3 by accident. I meant to put "There are 2 WWs and we could potentially get all of them from that".

1. Why would Bulge flipping WW likely mean Wicked is WW? Do you really think Wicked would protect his partner that much?

I think so. Wicked is a defensive player -- he has admitted to that himself. I think it is a plausible conclusion that we could perceive Wicked is WW is Bulge flips WW.

2. Why is Wicked almost cleared with a Bulge town flip? I think it could easily swing either way.

See above. I just think from his posts they are of a similar alignment.

3. Why does a mafia flip give us NO info? That's just an odd statement to make.

I forgot why I put that. To be honest, I don't know.

[Riddleton]

That post was caused by tiredness and IRL stress. I wasn't making much sense there hence why it was worded a bit strange and didn't make much sense.

[Riddleton]

Bins

, why did you vote desperado? Do you think he'll flip scum because of his inactivity?

[Riddleton]

I would also like

Bulge

to address why he think NM's 667 is "bullshit", too.

[Bins]

When did I say anything about inactivity?

[Riddleton]

I do not see why you would vote Desperado otherwise. He has barely contributed.

[The Bulge]

I do not see why you would vote Desperado otherwise. He has barely contributed.

You're answering your own question here.

NM's 667 is bullshit because he pretty much says "Everybody is saying The Bulge is WW, so why not vote him?"
This is exactly what I have been saying this whole time. THERE. IS. NO. CASE. AGAINST. ME.

[The Bulge]

Sorry, should clarify. My previous post is in two parts that have nothing to do with each other.

[Bins]

Do you see anything town in his ISO?

[Wickedestjr]

Unsight post

Don't be.

1.

It's a pretty weak post filled with "Unsight is confident in her reads ergo scum" and "Unsight provides information ergo scum."

2.

Lots of null tells painted as scum tells and far too many words saying far too little.

1. Not quite, but nice try. You sort of distorted two of my points and definitely ignored the other three. I'm really shocked that you find my case weak.
2. No they are all scum tells. (That's my valid and equal-effort rebuttal). You think all my big posts are 'too many words', this one's no different from the rest.

Unsight is guilty of IIoA = Information Instead of Analysis, one of my favorite scum tells.

Also this is worth noting because it's potentially very scummy.

Scum will often try to stay below the radar by posting "useful" information, non-controversial material, and avoiding giving reads. In essence they provide posts filled with null or empty content that can often be made up of setup and role speculation. While that's sometimes useful for the town, a player who produces a lot of that instead of genuine scum hunting is often scum.

That's the tell.

Adding in additional information noticed after heavy wagon analysis that may not be immediately important but could eventually become relevant

is not the tell.

Either Wickedestjr doesn't understand his own favorite scum tell or he's deliberately misusing it and didn't expect to be called out on it.

Oh well when you put it that way, your play actually sounds very pro-town.

You made an observation that Not_Mafia and I were the only ones not to vote Bulge. Doesn't take 'heavy wagon analysis' to realize that. My problem is that you don't take a stance, you mention it twice as if you're waiting for someone else to make use of it for you. The subtle implication is that you think I could be Bulge's partner but it's only a subtle implication and you never explicitly confirm it.

I am not getting into an argument about IIoA, even though I don't entirely agree with your comments regarding it. That's a semantics/naming argument, it's completely irrelevant, and I've explained my specific issue. Plus I am mildly insulted: that you would accuse me of using a scum tell I don't understand when I have more experience than you OR you suggest I would deliberately distort a scum tell believing I could get away with it.

[Wickedestjr]

Wicked's personal opinion of the "fake crumb" is largely meaningless when it's obvious a significant enough portion of the town are going to get hung up on it

That's ridiculous. That is appeal to majority and a terrible thing to resort to. This happens to me all the time- I am town, a bandwagon forms on someone, I townread the guy getting bandwagon'd and try to prevent their lynch, nobody listens to me and I get flak for not having the same invalid perspective, the guy flips town. I have a tendency to read well, once I played in a game where I was opposed to three major bandwagons (they were all town), that was a while ago but in the Shadedscum game I linked to I town read the day 2 lynch and despite countless arguments in his defense nobody freaking listened to me. Don't give me that "oh well everyone else thinks it's a crumb so your opinion doesn't mean anything".

and why more people don't seem to be aware of why us extending out a lynch centered on someone crumbing our only PR is bad is beyond me.

If Bulge flips town it removes any future wifom of that crumb and hopefully redirects wolves kill to Fuzzy, but that possibility is dwindling more and more the longer this goes on and more of us figure out who the seer is. This lynch should have gone through 2-3 pages ago.

I DO NOT BELIEVE BULGE CRUMBED. Even if he flips scum I will believe that. That's why I'm trying to prevent the lynch. In general if I see a bandwagon that I don't like I try to prevent it. And I don't care about wifom, I want a scum lynch not a wifom-removal lynch.

Why does that look like a bus to you?

-Almost never addressed Shaded despite voting him twice.
-You hardly justified your vote on him despite that being your strongest preference towards the end of the day.
-Very little effort to actually discern his alignment despite voting him twice, as if you already knew.

[Wickedestjr]

This merits its own post, especially the second paragraph.

Since his anti-town derailing of this lynch and unnecessary extending out of this day with discussion that is helping to make the identity of our only PR more and more obvious.

This is bs, and I am really irritated by your craplogic here. If I'm town (which I am) and I think Bulge is town (which I do), then it is absurd of you to say that my derailing is anti-town - you just can't fathom the concept of someone opposing your precious Bulge bandwagon, any opposition is scum in your eyes. The extending is perfectly necessary if I'm town trying to protect a town read (which I am).

And you cannot be serious about the PR comment. Wasn't Unsight the one that said in the first place, "Bulge might be crumbing seer here" - you are so convinced that my case against him was bad and blame me for discussion that can out the pr yet you follow the bandwagon that is based on Unsight's initial unjustified rolefishing. And last I checked, you were the one that asked Bulge to claim. I personally have no more of an idea who seer is than I did three days ago so your assertion is baseless. Then again, I don't look over the thread for pr crumbs so I honestly don't care about the risk as it is.

I think you are trying to rush a mislynch, appealing to the belief that it'll save the seer when the seer is in no apparent danger AND the lynch is much more valuable.

TL;DR - Not_Mafia gives me flak for trying to extend discussion that could potentially out the seer. But note that Unsight is the one that initially mentioned that Bulge could have crumbed seer and Not_Mafia is the one that asked Bulge to claim - they aren't interested in seer preservation. There is no risk of outing the seer by my wagon derailing effort.

[Wickedestjr]

I just don't like how Wicked keeps saying TheBulge is completely clear

I never said Bulge was completely clear. Please get your facts straight. I am

pretty sure

that he is town, regardless of his alignment I think the single point against him is entirely invalid.

Riddleton you are too easily influenced. You first posted after my Unsight case and said that I'd convinced you. Then Unsight and Not_Mafia comment and suddenly you think only one of my five points is good, it now seems that you've abandoned my case.

Unsight and Not_Mafia cannot be trusted. Consider this order;
-Day 1 and 2 occur with Unsight and Not_Mafia paying little to no attention to me.
-I call Unsight and Not_Mafia scum in my Unsight-case post.
-Unsight and Not_Mafia suddenly suspect me.
I can't see how you'd trust them after all that. Obviously they'll both dislike my post and obviously they'll both have counter arguments because they don't want to be called scum, nobody does.

Because, contrary to what others are saying, I thought it was very well written.

I really appreciate this. Thanks for considering a different perspective and not caving into peer pressure. And I don't particularly mind your Desperado vote considering he's my other werewolf suspect. When I voted Unsight I thought there would be more support for that lynch but now it seems like Desperado has more popularity.

Unvote. Vote: Desperado

.

[The Bulge]

Now that I'm on my laptop...

I'll start by clarifying something you are all obviously too tunnel-minded to understand:

I never fucking claimed Seer.

The way Wicked explained it is correct. It was a god damn wording issue. If that is the basis of the case against me (hint: it is), then either scum is getting way too stubbornly opportunistic or this town is incompetent. I think the former is more likely.

The thing that doesn't sit well with me is Post 319. When he was nearing lynch, he said he could

guarantee

he was town. snscompt1 immediately took his vote elsewhere. snscompt1 could have been jumping off his buddy's wagon or he may have read that post the same way I just did--soft Town Seer claim. The problem with this? The Bulge is still alive. Night kill analysis is WIFOM and usually not worth the time it takes to type, but I think the wolves would have to be asleep at the wheel to not take that bait. Unless he's one of them.

Why would you point this out? Regardless of how obvious you found it, do you really think it's so unlikely the wolves didn't catch on to it that was worth potentially outing the seer?

Regardless Bulge needs to claim

What the fuck is this shit and why did nobody pick up on it? First of all, I don't buy the "I caught the soft-claim but didn't want to point it out to scum" bullshit. Second of all, what you say later completely contradicts yourself.

"How dare you draw attention to our soft-claimed seer! Shame on you! ... By the way, potential seer, you should definitely claim now, yea."

I'll let Unsight respond but that case isn't as impressive as it seems to look to others and is largely window dressing, and Wicked's personal opinion of the "fake crumb" is largely meaningless when

it's obvious a significant enough portion of the town are going to get hung up on it

and why more people don't seem to be aware of why us extending out a lynch centered on someone crumbing our only PR is bad is beyond me.

If Bulge flips town it removes any future wifom of that crumb and hopefully redirects wolves kill to Fuzzy, but that possibility is dwindling more and more the longer this goes on and more of us figure out who the seer is. This lynch should have gone through 2-3 pages ago.

I find it absolutely hilarious that you think my wagon is town-driven, or at its least "a significant portion of the town".

So vote him. You summed this whole thing up yourself here

everyone keeps assuming he's destined to flip WW

I addressed this before but I want to stress again how shitty this post is. Not to mention how shitty the wagon is. I will be legitimately surprised if there is any more than one townie on my wagon.

Can we make a Not_Mafia wagon happen? I'd also be down to lynch Unsight or Desp. Maybe Riddleton based on recent bullshit. I'll give him a read next.

PEDIT: Aw no N_M wagon Promise me it will happen tomorrow.

[The Bulge]

Nah, Riddleton looks good. 650 and 682 are bad but not outstandingly scummy.

[Wickedestjr]

Just read this;

Bulge will be lynch fodder and a sticking point for every day he's still here, and

we could have assumed a

mafia

kill like 4 pages ago

, instead we're splitting wagons multiple times for no apparent reason.

Are you a werewolf? Because I thought we were lynching werewolves today.

[The Bulge]

Hm. Missed that one. Can we please do this today?

[Wickedestjr]

I'm up for lynching Not_Mafia if two other people are (besides you and I), that's the only scenario where it'd be worth it for me to switch.

Not_Mafia wants to lynch you for a crumb that isn't even a crumb because he's afraid that we'll out the seer. Even though Unsight brought up the crumb and Not_Mafia asked you to claim. Meanwhile Not_Mafia wants to lynch mafia it seems. And I am getting flak for not following the popular opinion.

[Wickedestjr]

So I guess I'd support Unsight, Desperado, or Not_Mafia as lynch candidates. I thought Not_Mafia was mafia, but that looks like a potential werewolf slip.

[Wickedestjr]

I am aware of the fact that this seems like really bad timing, and it is really bad timing, but it's going to affect my future posting ability.

I was surprised to learn two days ago that I have a relative that's very sick. So tomorrow I'm on the road for literally over 20 hours straight. I will not touch a computer tomorrow, but may be able to phone post. The next day I'll get good news or really bad news, in either case it's unlikely that I'll post. So I'm guessing I'll be occupied for the next few days.

Mod: I'm V/LA Aug. 13-16 (at least).

Going to sleep now, but I've addressed everything worth addressing.

[Riddleton]

Id rather have a nm lynch than a desp lynch

[The Bulge]

My thoughts go out to your family. Hope everything turns out alright

I don't see the Not_Mafia lynch going through quite yet without more support. I will push for this tomorrow if not today, though.

[Riddleton]

Sorry to hear about that wicked