Serum & Steel 2: The Rise of Phyrexia--Endgame


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Post Post #3675 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 3:59 pm

Post by PeregrineV »

In post 233, mastin2 wrote:Chandra's identity isn't hard to figure out, but what can be made of knowing Chandra's identity is where the challenge lies; I don't know how much of my love/hate relationship with Chandra is off of the main and off of the alt, since the two do have differing styles. (Which is, ironically, basically exactly what Chandra says. Baseline exists, using it might end badly.)


In post 235, Titus wrote:Chandra's an alt? Aww fuck...now that adds bias interpretations to the posts that I won't see...


Kind of wondering here why Titus isn't asking who Chandra is.
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Post Post #3676 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:12 pm

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In post 1808, vezokpiraka wrote:Ludi was a player most of the playerlist considered scummy, but nobody was voting for him.

Then came the Chandra wagon that fizzled and ludi came as a counter-wagon to that. He is either town and the scum are forcing a mislynch on him to save you or he is scum and the whole team is bussing him because you have some sort of god role and they don't want you to die.

Either way a lynch on you is best.


You know what worries me?

Pies not the first person to come up with this argument, yet he's presenting it as his own.

~~~

Also some posts back, Titus mentioned a 3-person scum team, which would be weird. Makes me wonder if we are dealing with multiball after all.
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Post Post #3677 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:16 pm

Post by Trustworthy »

In post 3675, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 233, mastin2 wrote:Chandra's identity isn't hard to figure out, but what can be made of knowing Chandra's identity is where the challenge lies; I don't know how much of my love/hate relationship with Chandra is off of the main and off of the alt, since the two do have differing styles. (Which is, ironically, basically exactly what Chandra says. Baseline exists, using it might end badly.)


In post 235, Titus wrote:Chandra's an alt? Aww fuck...now that adds bias interpretations to the posts that I won't see...


Kind of wondering here why Titus isn't asking who Chandra is.


Skot and tattletale were revealed as alts, but slots main was revealed. Titus did not have the same reaction to them being revealed as alts.

Not sure what to make of that.
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Post Post #3678 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:36 pm

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In post 2082, zMuffinMan wrote:dunno

i don't really see the issue with (a) apart from the fact it deprives town of a day phase at the cost of 100% confirming someone is scum (which is potentially good or really, really bad for scum depending on who they target at night because, you know, town would theoretically have metal players, too), though this reminds me that i'm not all that concerned with whether a synth vote actually goes through today

and there could very well be a breaking strategy with metal claims. though i don't know how that would work

also doesn't seem all that relevant to think about at this point in time

i am just telling you what nati's answer was



Someone said we can't know if muffin did suggest metal claims to ffery, but this tells me that it was definitely possible as something was in the works with him day one.
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Post Post #3679 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:51 pm

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When the Chandra wagon collapsed on day one it dispersed mostly to ludi (read his posts during the rise it's not surprising it did), dispersed somewhat equally onto massive and ABR, then preferencing abr with pander and ludi about equal until pander and abr become the main contenders.

Pander moves from massive to abr putting him at l-2 and making abr the most likely lynch day one.
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Post Post #3680 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 4:53 pm

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is a good picture of near end of day wagons.
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Post Post #3681 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 5:22 pm

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Okay so remember how Chandra was like oh if Mastin and I were scum together we'd pretend to be paranoid of each other? that is pretty close to how he behaved with Mhork. Now he expected Mhork to town read him (ftr he expressed this in a non-manipulative tone which he has displayed when expecting Nacho to town read him when he's been scum.) But it did take him a long time to actually read Mhork. I'm not sure what this means, but it's something I noticed as feeling kinda meng.

I just don't have any great town reads this game that I feel wonderful about and I'm not even going to tell anyone who my possible town reads are because close to the chest.

But, I'd love to take Mhork's town read of Chandra at face value but even he has disappeared from the planet. I could vote for chandra, i guess, Shadoweh is scum reading her. I just really would like her to be town, unless we lynch her then I was a correct lynch and for Chandra to just laugh about being able to manipulate me. ANYWAY, I have seen a wagon stall on town this many days in a row before. And I mean it's not like people can actually say "oh scum made that wagon fizzle" because Falcon is the one who jumped off and helped that wagon stall day one and noone is scum reading him. muffin also helped to start a massive wagon and wasn't pushing for a chandra wagon at the end of day, even though he in theory was still pushing it. Day two muffin was reading mastin as scum and pushing that and everyone sheeped that, so it's really hard to divine how the day would have gone regardless.

I'm of the mind to just accept this lynch though because I have seen town wagons stall several days in a row. I think I replaced into a slot that held that status a couple years ago. But, I feel like this is going to be an argument that could continue indefinitely and we could end up lynching him in LyLo for a scum win if he's town. I guess one way we could maybe get around that is if Antihero investigated him and he came back town? That would mean putting Chandra off until tomorrow.

The thing with Chandra is have you noticed the level of omgus? He pushed muffin as scum when muffin was pushing him. He's doing the same with pie guy today. It almost feels like he's getting frustrated with being scum read and is lashing out and calling most people who scum read him as scum. IDK.

What I do know is I really need to do something else as I've just read the entire first day of this game and haven't done any of the work I've needed to do so I need to do that.

But I feel like I could vote Chandra (out of pure utility because I don't think it's going to stop being a thing unless there's confirmation), Pander Bears (they just feel ennnnggggggg. This is another one I hate to scum read but I don't feel great about), Massive (though every time he posts I feel better about him, but worry he's third party); there are others I could vote for but I'm holding on to this because I don't want any narrowing down of what I'm going to do.

OH but apparently scum don't have a role blocker OR we've serum'd scum the past two days. But seriously, they couldn't be sure what the roles were that we serum'd and they decided not to kill the people we made prs?

WE serum'd antihero day one (at scum's demand) and then Ludi day two. Ludi claimed that he thought that his role was better than a flavor cop. Neither of these two were touched, unless they're metal and Ludi claimed to not be metal. So, why weren't they killed? This strikes me as odd.
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Post Post #3682 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 5:33 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

Cephrir, can you walk me through your read on antihero? it felt like you had no prior suspicion of him before you agreed with tammy's point. also, if you dont mind, explain why you created this alt and what you wanted to dow with it.

Tammy, regarding the flow bussing, one thing i noticed in tales was that he not only flow bussed prohawk d1 which muffin used to link him and ap as scum but also bussed nacho once i pushed him. Idk how sure he was that i'd be able to push it through but i remember him saying something like "i wish someone other than you was telling me to vote nacho" but always keeping that option open. I think he would be wary of flow bussing again in a game with town-muffin though.

My only experience with pb is bbhoh where he was inactive and obvscum. Do you have any markers for town-pb? I thought his initial combative posts felt like town frustration but since then, he checked out completely which worries me.

With anti's ffery push, i liked it because it felt genuine and his reasoning was sound if applied to a normal, non-ffery player. Why do you think she is a safe target for scum?

~~~

Titus went after tammy and muffin early, switched gears on tammy and buddied me and antihero throughout as well as pieguy. I am not sure what it means that she townread three people going after chandra while scumreading one of them - muffin. I dunno if the scumteam had a specific plan to stay off of certain players and titus seemed to be making her pushes fairly spontaneously. With a player like ffery who has an easily attackable playstyle to the outside eye, but is influential with players with extensive meta, i feel whether or not she's pushed depends on the playerlist.

Ffery, d2 of tales was focussed entirely on mastin and pie and desp were pretty set on getting that lynch before even considering anyone else so didnt want to vote you.
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Post Post #3683 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 6:14 pm

Post by F-16_Fighting_Falcon »

Also, tammy: can you explain your massive read?
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Post Post #3684 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:04 pm

Post by pixel »

In post 3671, Trustworthy wrote:Yeah, that's how I feel about Chandra too actually.

I just went and looked at NY169 because earlier when DV kinda chided Ceph about town reading me from my post to you early day one, he said that he'd yet to have his first impulse about me hadn't been wrong, I remember that being pretty spot on in Hard Boiled, but not so much in NY 169. But I just went and looked and he didn't like my first post there, just as he didn't like shadower's impression of me here, but town read me when I got frustrated with Maraca there.

I thought Muffin had Chandra as scum though?


He had Mastin, tattletale and skot as scum with chandra somewhere above that grouping. I don't think he even mentioned chandra in the neighborhood. I'll check tonight. IIRC skot was a maybe. That's why I voted tattletale out of the chute today. But I dunno. I like some of tattletale's posting today. Still thinking about it.
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Post Post #3685 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 7:06 pm

Post by pixel »

In post 3663, Majiffy wrote:Oh man you think I plan on catching up. Thats adorable.


No, you said you won't be reading the whole game thread. what are you going to do to figure out who's scum and who to vote?
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Post Post #3686 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 8:53 pm

Post by pixel »

In post 3682, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:his reasoning was sound if applied to a normal, non-ffery player.


Made me laugh.

I can't tell you how much I needed to laugh about something tonight.
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Post Post #3687 (ISO) » Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:02 pm

Post by massive »

In post 3667, Trustworthy wrote:
In post 1494, massive wrote:The way zMuffinman is campaigning for serum makes me think he just doesn't want synth.


:roll:


Yeah. After there was no death N1 and muffin and antihero had their "no look at the card" moment, I knew I was right, and that that was probably how I ended up being the poke at the end of D1. Hence why I stood on "we need to find a metal townie and we can win with it" -- scum didn't have a metal breaker in SS1 and had lost their serum giver in any case, so that seemed like a winning plan. I missed him saying anything about getting demetaled.
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Post Post #3688 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 12:23 am

Post by Majiffy »

In post 3685, pixel wrote:
No, you said you won't be reading the whole game thread. what are you going to do to figure out who's scum and who to vote?

Read posts. Ask questions. Analyze wagons.

The usual.
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Post Post #3689 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:08 am

Post by vezokpiraka »

serum antihero
Synth pander bears


Is the entire game scum that doesn't want to bus? Lynch chandra goddamit.

Antihero is the only one who has his head screwed on right now.
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Post Post #3690 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 4:27 am

Post by Chandra Nalaar »

Forgot to say this here I guess. Pretty much phone posting for a few days.
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Post Post #3691 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 4:33 am

Post by Chandra Nalaar »

In post 3675, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 233, mastin2 wrote:Chandra's identity isn't hard to figure out, but what can be made of knowing Chandra's identity is where the challenge lies; I don't know how much of my love/hate relationship with Chandra is off of the main and off of the alt, since the two do have differing styles. (Which is, ironically, basically exactly what Chandra says. Baseline exists, using it might end badly.)


In post 235, Titus wrote:Chandra's an alt? Aww fuck...now that adds bias interpretations to the posts that I won't see...


Kind of wondering here why Titus isn't asking who Chandra is.

Since I can address this quickly. I'd have thought she already knew, on account of me having alt slipped in multiple games with her so I don't even know why that was ever a surprise.
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Post Post #3692 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 5:41 am

Post by Trustworthy »

In post 3691, Chandra Nalaar wrote:
In post 3675, PeregrineV wrote:
In post 233, mastin2 wrote:Chandra's identity isn't hard to figure out, but what can be made of knowing Chandra's identity is where the challenge lies; I don't know how much of my love/hate relationship with Chandra is off of the main and off of the alt, since the two do have differing styles. (Which is, ironically, basically exactly what Chandra says. Baseline exists, using it might end badly.)


In post 235, Titus wrote:Chandra's an alt? Aww fuck...now that adds bias interpretations to the posts that I won't see...


Kind of wondering here why Titus isn't asking who Chandra is.

Since I can address this quickly. I'd have thought she already knew, on account of me having alt slipped in multiple games with her so I don't even know why that was ever a surprise.



Why didn't you point it out at the time?
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Post Post #3693 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 5:43 am

Post by Trustworthy »

In post 3684, pixel wrote:
In post 3671, Trustworthy wrote:Yeah, that's how I feel about Chandra too actually.

I just went and looked at NY169 because earlier when DV kinda chided Ceph about town reading me from my post to you early day one, he said that he'd yet to have his first impulse about me hadn't been wrong, I remember that being pretty spot on in Hard Boiled, but not so much in NY 169. But I just went and looked and he didn't like my first post there, just as he didn't like shadower's impression of me here, but town read me when I got frustrated with Maraca there.

I thought Muffin had Chandra as scum though?


He had Mastin, tattletale and skot as scum with chandra somewhere above that grouping. I don't think he even mentioned chandra in the neighborhood. I'll check tonight. IIRC skot was a maybe. That's why I voted tattletale out of the chute today. But I dunno. I like some of tattletale's posting today. Still thinking about it.


He didn't talk about his suspects after mastin flipped town?
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Post Post #3694 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 5:55 am

Post by Trustworthy »

In post 3683, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:Also, tammy: can you explain your massive read?


Not in a way that makes sense probably. When I'm away from my computer and thinking about the game massive is a name that routinely pops up in my head as someone who would fit as scum. But then when I read a post from him I go eh maybe not. I have no idea on the maybe not though or the whys.
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Post Post #3695 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:06 am

Post by Trustworthy »

Falcon - on iPad so not quoting post.

Regarding skot - no real markers. Well my msrker was if he's town he stays in the game and argues and if scum finds a reason to replace out >_>. He didn't replace out of revolution though. His stubbornness and arguing early day one was what I remembered from chef mafia and it's what had me leaning town. And then I read some of his posts in revolution where his tone over the random.org rvs vote suspicion read differently and that had me leaning town. But then he's checked out and does nearly nothing at all, so I'm back to being worried about him.

I don't remember saying ffery is an easy person for scum to attack? I just don't think she would be someone scum would be afraid to attack and that was in response to thinking the scum team were making it a point of avoiding her. My thinking on that is that Titus was clearly going after muffin, but in reading through day one he did say no scum team would have the balls to scum read him. Maybe she took that as a challenge? Perhaps scum don't want to go after her, and that would tell us something of the make up of the scum team. It still is gnawing at the back of my mind that Titus suggested I serum either you or pixel day one.
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Post Post #3696 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:14 am

Post by pieguyn »

In post 3669, Trustworthy wrote:Titus defending Chandra as being a reason for why you're scum reading him isn't all that strong. Titus was defending Chandra, not only from you but from everyone, but she was also defending Mastin and Mhork pretty strongly as well. (She also defended me but I wasn't so much getting attacked, and she was creating that connection between us, so with me it's not that strong a comparison.)

it's not a 100% tell in itself but it's smth that overall makes CN more likely to be scum. generally on a policy level I assume scum will defend their partners when possible, especially given I'm sure Titus said at one point bussing is overrated and buddying is better.

In post 3669, Trustworthy wrote:And I'm not sure it's fair to look at the day one wagons in the context of Ludi being the scum designated mislynch. The only person who was a major wagon on day one was ABR, and that could have been the scum designated mislynch. Sure, it could have been either. But Titus, the only known scum we have, certainly pushed rather hard to get ABR lynched. Also, and what sparked this super fun reread adventure today was me looking at your vca and looking at the vote counts as they were. The thing is that SKOT, Pander Bears, Ludi, Titus, Chandra and ABR were all pretty relevant wagons the entire day. The Chandra wagon was started by Falcon and then he got cold feet and jumped off and then eventually moved to Ludi (whose wagon I was championing by the way). I'm just getting to the part in my reread where Falcon does get off the Chandra wagon and things start to go elsewhere so maybe I'll have some better insight in a little bit.

the ppl on ABR wagon were Titus and then Chandra, SKOT, Tattletale, and Mhork. just based on reads, there is def another scum there - even if I'm somehow wrong about Chandra, the other 3 ppl are p much dead null (although I do have gut town vibes from some of Tattletale's recent posting).

every single one of them proceeded to join the ML wagon when the first ABR wagon failed, so given ABR was a scum mislynch, ML almost certainly is too. plus given the timing of the votes at the start of the 8 man ML wagon (CN and Titus voted ML immediately when mastin did starting from ), I could see it as a scum power play to get ML lynched, especially when CN was a wagon at that point.

the ppl who switched from Chandra to ML were ABR and then F-16 and Anti who I think are both town, so I don't think it's accurate to say the CN wagon collapsed in favor of ML (most of it came from the ABR wagon).

re: Chandra wagon stalling: I don't think (and never meant to imply) the Chandra wagon stalling a bunch of times automatically makes him scum - see: jason wagon from quickness where it stalled like 5 times and didn't go through till D6 and he was town - although I do agree it makes it more likely on a policy level.
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Post Post #3697 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:17 am

Post by Trustworthy »

In post 3620, pixel wrote:
In post 3607, Trustworthy wrote:You did, but he, like Titus, made a push against muffin.

I might not make sense tonight.


Who is the he you're talking about?


I forgot to answer this yesterday.

The he is antihero there, but I think my paranoia might be calming there, and I'm not even sure the original point made any sense anyway :p
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Post Post #3698 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:19 am

Post by pieguyn »

@CN:

In post 3642, pieguyn wrote:another question: when would you say it became clear they weren't masons?
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Post Post #3699 (ISO) » Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:20 am

Post by Trustworthy »

The wagon stalling point is anti's

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