Micro 381 - 999 Mafia (Nonary Game Complete)

[xRECKONERx]

Actually no, Bins is PROBABLY town? I don't know, the Vanilla Cop could be a scum role, I guess, but I don't see how it's useful with a Vengeful Mafia. And I don't see scum having a goon + Vengeful with no kill, which is what Gamma would be if he was scum. That doesn't make sense with a town doublevoter and a town friendly neighbor.

Bins: Vanilla Cop
Akane: Number Changer?
The Bulge: ???
Parama: D1 Doublevoter
xRECKONERx: Friendly Neighbor
Gammagooey: VT

[xRECKONERx]

Oh, nevermind:

Bins: Vanilla Cop
Akane: Number Changer?
The Bulge: VT
Parama: D1 Doublevoter
xRECKONERx: Friendly Neighbor
Gammagooey: VT

Me, Parama, Akane, are all ability confirmed. While Bins isn't quite ability confirmed, it's pretty damn close. We've also had:

yonce: VT
Grib: Town Esper
Not_Mafia: Vengeful Mafia

[Gammagooey]

parama it doesn't feel like you've tried. I've asked you to go into detail on bulge and you haven't, and your post saying that you wouldn't know what to do if i flip town followed by not seriously considering that i even could be town feels really awful. like im not expecting you to read me as town but i am expecting you to at least entertain the possibility.

[xRECKONERx]

Here are my thoughts:

- It's either 1:5 or 2:4 right now. If scum DO have some way to kill (a one-shot vig or dayvig or something), then it's probably 1:5. If scum don't have a kill, then it's probably 2:4 (right?). If it's 1:5, we could mislynch today and be in 1:4, and I don't think scum would use their kill this far from LyLo.

- Scum probably don't just have a goon. We aren't confirmed that Bins is telling the truth, but I don't know that it would be both Bins AND Gamma... lynching Bins eliminates the only nonconfirmed PR and will confirm the report on Gamma.

- The Bulge is unconfirmed VT. Bins could check Bulge and see if the VT claim is legitimate. Good reason to leave Bins alive.

- Parama isn't confirmed as a

D1 only

doublevoter. He could be scum that had a one-shot Doublevote and tried to go for the long play and use it D1 to confirm himself. This will be rebuttled with, "But that's craaaaazy!" but I'm pretty sure I did this in one of the WoW Mafia games. It's the long shot, but it can pay off.

- Akane is confirmed as a number changer or whatever, but that COULD be a scum role. The only way it's actually useful as a scum role, though, is if scum has another ability that interacts specifically with rooms in some powerful way (which the Vengeful Mafia did NOT).

Here's what I propose:

we lynch Parama and give Bins the night to check Bulge's VT claim. Bulge claimed AFTER Bins, so it'd be weird for him to claim VT, knowing there's a vanilla cop, but it's better safe than sorry. Worst case scenario, we lynch town, then Bins comes back with a report tomorrow and we can sort this out from there. I feel like there's definitely a component we are missing in all of this but I can't put my finger on it... I fully don't believe that the last remaining scum is just a goon who is no killing every night.

Primarily, this is why I don't want to lynch Gamma at this point. I just cannot fathom that Gamma is the last scum as a goon... the only way Gamma is scum is if Bins is lying and is scum with Gamma.

[xRECKONERx]

Actually, it makes a lot MORE sense for Parama to go with the ballsy doublevote gambit as scum if his only partner is a vengeful mafioso, because clearly N_M is going to take the fall.

Anyone trying to clear anyone else for N_M interactions needs to consider that taking down their own scumbuddy MIGHT HAVE BEEN THE ONLY WAY MAFIA COULD MAKE A KILL.

[xRECKONERx]

Seriously. Scum HAVE to have a way to deal with me... I don't get it. From a balance/design standpoint, having scum's only kill ability be a vengeful mafia kill with a FUCKING FRIENDLY NEIGHBOR in the game just doesn't add up.

[Akane Kurashiki]

So how much of you thinking Gamma is town is things the slot has actually done, and how much is you trying to play outguess the mod?

Because I don't think I've ever seen that work out the way you seem to be hoping it will.

[Parama]

if I had a full doublevote I could've easily claimed it and people would've had role-bias to believe I was town all throughout the game. plus game-long role-gambits are a lame as hell thing.
also, a scum doublevoter is a bastard mod role exclusively, especially in a mini.

parama it doesn't feel like you've tried. I've asked you to go into detail on bulge and you haven't, and your post saying that you wouldn't know what to do if i flip town followed by not seriously considering that i even could be town feels really awful. like im not expecting you to read me as town but i am expecting you to at least entertain the possibility.

whatever, I'll go through it then.
comment: if Gamma's town, then there's 2 scum left and they are Reck/Akane. Reck "forgot to use his action" n1 because he wasn't in a room with his scumbuddy. he didn't want to be in a room with his scumbuddy so he could put off the claim/maybe get someone else lynched as the "roleblocker" but he couldn't claim roleblocked with his scumbuddy in the room because there would be a higher chance of his buddy being lynched as "roleblocker". Akane was overeager to confirm Reck at the start of d3 but immediately realized she shouldn't make it a 100% thing, for two reasons; 1) if she was lynched first, Reck would look town by association because nobody else saw the confirmation PM and her not 100% confirming it could lead people to assume that it was actually 100% but she lied about it, 2) if Reck was lynched first, she wouldn't automatically be on the chopping block because she never "confirmed" him as town.

this is like some seriously stretchy crap though but it's about the only thing that makes sense to me if you're town, Gamma, and I'll apologize for being wrong on Akane if you are. either that convoluted logic case is true and you're town or basic association tells say you're scum with NM.

though this is like. an ace attorney case exactly isn't it. Gamma was arrested for committing murder but the real story is some huge master plan by two seemingly innocent unrelated people used to frame Gamma, except then that doesn't make sense because Reck is both the attorney and the murderer and that's a contradiction

unless

Spoiler: Ace Attorney Spoilers Oh Man

is Reck actually Kristoph Gavin IRL

anyways onto bulge.
mostly I already had goodvibes from Quil, both for his early game stuff and his frustration feeling really genuine. Bulge kind of put a damper on that with his posts against NM, which, while actually against scum, weren't very good arguments for it. But then you have the association in retrospect; why the hell would Bulge push a case on NM when the wagon was dying off? that's practically assisted murder of a scumbuddy. there's bussing and then there's insanity. even not arguing that the Bulge wagon was a counterwagon to NM (since that's not necessarily true, because...) NM held his vote on Quil/Bulge literally all day for no reason at all (a "scumslip" in the QT that he mentioned once and never brought up again or pushed on), and that just doesn't strike me as a scumbuddy randomly deciding to bus a partner nobody was even putting pressure on for no good reason at all. 1196 almost feels like NM was mudslinging against Bulge but that post and his initial vote are practically the only things he ever says against him; it does not feel like a scum on scum push to me.
I legitimately cannot see Bulge as scum with NM, it just makes no sense at all. If this is some supreme distancing action at work then... wow, sure, well played, but I just don't believe that it could be.

[Parama]

Primarily, this is why I don't want to lynch Gamma at this point. I just cannot fathom that Gamma is the last scum as a goon...

By the way, how to solve this problem:
Gamma is scum, as a goon, with NM and one other living player.
Now then, your primary reason for not lynching Gamma is gone. So.

[Zero the Ninth]

LYNCH VOTE

Bins (0) -
Akane Kurashiki (1) - Gammagooey
The Bulge (0) -
Parama (0) -
xRECKONERx (0) -
Gammagooey (2) - Parama, Akane Kurashiki

Not Voting - Bins, The Bulge, xRECKONERx

DOOR VOTE

Bins - [Bins, Akane Kurashiki, Parama, xRECKONERx, The Bulge - 6]
Akane Kurashiki - [Bins, Akane Kurashiki, Parama, xRECKONERx, The Bulge - 6]
The Bulge - [Bins, Akane Kurashiki, Parama, xRECKONERx, The Bulge - 6]
Parama - [Bins, Akane Kurashiki, Parama, xRECKONERx, The Bulge - 6]
xRECKONERx -[Bins, Akane Kurashiki, Parama, xRECKONERx, The Bulge - 6]
Gammagooey - [Gammagooey, Bins, The Bulge - 1]

Current Plurality - [Bins, Akane Kurashiki, Parama, xRECKONERx, The Bulge - 6]
Unavailable Doors - [4], [5], [7], [8]
Available Doors - [1], [2], [3], [6]

With 6 alive, it takes 4 to lynch (3 to No Lynch). Deadline is Friday, September 19th, at 11pm Eastern.

[Parama]

just a thought, also; out of all the roles claimed/flipped, Reck's is the only one that is specifically an orientation aligned role; everything else could go either way quite easily.

[xRECKONERx]

Primarily, this is why I don't want to lynch Gamma at this point. I just cannot fathom that Gamma is the last scum as a goon...

By the way, how to solve this problem:
Gamma is scum, as a goon, with NM and one other living player.
Now then, your primary reason for not lynching Gamma is gone. So.

Except 3:6 w/ a vengekill is still ridiculously scumsided. Town mislynches twice and is in LYLO.

[xRECKONERx]

So how much of you thinking Gamma is town is things the slot has actually done, and how much is you trying to play outguess the mod?

Because I don't think I've ever seen that work out the way you seem to be hoping it will.

I know Pie. I lived with Pie. I am very good friends with Pie and have talked about setup speculation ad nauseum with Pie. I do not think Pie would make a bonkers pants-on-head stupid ass setup.

I'm not playing outguess the mod when

the vast majority of roles are confirmed

. When we have all of that information, it's a matter of just plugging in alignments where they belong.

[xRECKONERx]

also, a scum doublevoter is a bastard mod role exclusively, especially in a mini.

uh no.
ESPECIALLY if you ARE just a D1 doublevoter

[xRECKONERx]

Yeah Parama is definitely rubbing me the wrong way with the whole "lynch Gamma cuz setup speculation on it being 3:6" thing.

Gamma has looked mildly town in his responses PLUS there's a chance of it actually just being 2:7 with crazy scum power in which case it's not Gamma. If it's 3:6 and Gamma is a goon then I'd STILL rather try to find the scum power first before it surprises us.

[Parama]

Except 3:6 w/ a vengekill is still ridiculously scumsided. Town mislynches twice and is in LYLO.

3 lynches for town to win, 3 mislynches for town to lose, gain a lynch with 2 out of 3 scum lynches?

uh no.
ESPECIALLY if you ARE just a D1 doublevoter

I'm specifically debunking the full-time scum doublevoter thing you brought up. Don't be dense. You know what I was responding to.

Yeah Parama is definitely rubbing me the wrong way with the whole "lynch Gamma cuz setup speculation on it being 3:6" thing.

Because I was the one who brought up 3:6 in the first place wait no? I've specifically stated that I'm going to believe 2:7 until I have evidence otherwise, but play as if 3:6 in case of early lylo shenanigans. I'm bringing up a scenario in which your, specifically stated, primary reason for not lynching Gamma is a fallacy. And not a massively unlikely one either. I want to lynch Gamma for reasons I've already stated, MULTIPLE TIMES, not setup speculation.

The misrep is strong with you today, Reck.

[Gammagooey]

parama i guess i just don't really get why you're playing like you are here?

i'm pretty much the only acceptable lynch to you but you're not really attacking any of my content posts, just saying that they're not necessarily town

bulge and bins are apparently town enough to you that nobody could possibly be scum with them even though you don't really go into detail on why that is until i dragged bulge out of you now

like i just don't get why you aren't either actually going into my play and trying to convince people to lynch me or seriously considering that i might not be scum, you're just -there- pushing my lynch but not actually playing like you think i'm absolutely scum.

[Parama]

Bulge and Bins both have strong association towntells w/ NM, mostly.
And I just can't be bothered to criticize the stuff you're posting because I dunno if it's even "bad" (to be honest I skimmed them, because can't be botheeed), just that from everything I've learned about the game up to this point, you make the most sense as scum out of everyone. I don't think a few content posts at this point in the game are going to entirely change that.

[Gammagooey]

have you ever wanted to make a post that consists entirely of cursing

[Gammagooey]

because i feel it would be pretty justified right now

[Gammagooey]

i'm sorry that you haven't done enough to change my mind? i'm sorry that association tells entirely outweigh the content you've posted? i'm sorry that scum can make good posts too so making good posts doesn't automatically make you town again?

I don't know why I'm scum simply because you haven't convinced me you're town. That isn't my job.

Bulge and Bins both have strong association towntells w/ NM, mostly.
And I just can't be bothered to criticize the stuff you're posting because I dunno if it's even "bad" (to be honest I skimmed them, because can't be botheeed), just that from everything I've learned about the game up to this point, you make the most sense as scum out of everyone. I don't think a few content posts at this point in the game are going to entirely change that.

no, fuck off.

Vote: Parama

[Gammagooey]

VOTE TAGS

VOTE: Parama

[Gammagooey]

town parama does not comment on me not 'convincing' him that i'm town when he's not even bothering to read my posts.

[Parama]

yeah admittedly I'm going to want to lynch you no matter what you do, but it's not really your fault at this point? if we don't lynch you today I'm going to end up doing the same thing tomorrow sans some shocking revelation. I pretty much came out of night 2 with intent to lynch nobody but you the moment day started, honestly

[xRECKONERx]

VOTE: Parama

##unvote

1-vote: Bins, Akane, Bulge, xRECKONERx, Gammagooey