Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Aegor]

wazzup

[Aegor]

Past your bedtime, tsktsk.

Both of you aren't making sense much sense at all. Sns' vote 'cause selfvote was bad. Reinoe's vote in response to that was bad.
So if it's any consolation to you, I like reinoe's vote less.

The flashwagon point doesn't make sense. If I understand correctly (I'll try and translate what sns was saying)... wagons don't usually work like that from a scum's perspective. For example, if you have two votes on you, and mafia hops onto the wagon, werewolf is going to be more likely to hop onto the people who hopped onto the wagon rather than you (I think this was what Sns was trying to say, but I'm not sure, he didn't really make sense in that post). That might not make sense, I'm tired, forgive me. In any case, no matter how the wagon would have played out, I don't think the flashwagon fear should have actually been mentioned. The five scum aren't going to all opportunistically wagon that.

And the fact he didn't mention town for those sentences means nothing whatsoever. He wasn't talking about town... that's why...

And other than that, he didn't look scummy in the first place for voting you that way.

really fast post cause i'm late

Okay, I was kind of confused. I've also never exactly experienced a flashwagon before, so I was more trying to understand the likeliness.

And I understand the perspective thing now. I don't think it's a strong point, but I get what you're saying and it clicks.


Also. Wait. Hold up. So I understand. Couldn't that also be said about bjc's vote?

don't tell me what to do, reinoe.

VOTE: sns

really? i was waiting for a better defence than that -- not "go meta me." that makes you look worse.
meh, i probably will but i don't have time right now. so take this vote because i expected more.

VOTE: bulge

That's not how you should be reacting to ONE vote on you.

Your points against me don't even make sense. At least with Wicked I could see where he was coming from and I could respond with points. But how was "posting with clarity" scummy? And I don't see the problem with my vote on Bulge.

I definitely think Bulge is scum but he can be lynched tomorrow.

VOTE: Pasch

^That never has and never will make someone scum. Useless town =/= scum. Doesnt mean they shouldn't be lynched, but we should take out scum before we worry about useless town.

Guise, please stahp.

The town v town arguments get us nowhere.

unvote
vote: the bulge

the composition of that paschendale wagon is absolutely awful

that's a scum replace out.

Replacing out isn't scummy. He claimed V/LA and then posted saying he was replacing out because he wasn't going to be able to post much. If anything, that's town.

I'll be online until the lynch.

I'll switch my vote if I have to, chances are more than one of {Titus, Splash, Pasch, Bulge} are scum so I'll definitely try my hardest to prevent the no lynch.

I strongly prefer Pasch. Titus and Splash are probably a tie for second. Then Bulge because I don't think the lynch on him is happening.

Welp. This sucks. To address your question, Titus, I don't really scumread Splash or you at all. Your slot definitely more than Splash's, but I wish I could have given you a chance to actually play the game.

If you're online, any chance you're going to claim Seer? Because I have pretty big intent to hammer.

I might not wake up in time to deliver it. So, I'll do so tonight before I sleep. Which could be very soon.

[Aegor]

Whoops. I was collecting scummy posts and accidentally pressed Submit instead of Reply.

[Aegor]

Bins does look scummy early on, Aegor, but it's faded over time and she's definitely not the scummiest looking right now.

I will make that determination for myself.

All I see from Day 1 is sheeping and leaping from wagon to wagon. Perhaps subsequent days have produced less scummy content.

[Aegor]

Looking at the votes that weren't on Titus, Fuzzy's is the most suspect. SNS is a townread for me, as is Desperado, though a weaker one. Titus already flipped. It does seem very unlikely that Titus was bussed, based on the multiball setup, so looking for his teammate off his wagon seems quite reasonable. It could also be the BJC/Unsight slot. Unsight will need to work very hard to rehabilitate that slot.

Also, because missing important setup details is apparently my thing lately, I just noticed that the mafia sample PM does not include a factional kill. So it is not, in fact, noteworthy that there was only one kill. We know that there should only have been one.

The question is, is it better strategy to pursue the werewolves first, or the mafia first? On the one hand, werewolves have a kill, on the other, we have a seer to track them down.

At the moment, I'm leaning towards werewolves.

VOTE: Bulge

The wolves mafia hunt in this most nights anyway depending on the numbers, that's nothing revolutionary. And leaving mafia in the game for the sake of it leads to murky endgame situations where we have to lynch a particular faction or lose.

Wolf lynch is still optimal today though, and this is our best candidate, would be too much wifom moving forward regardless.

VOTE: The Bulge

L-1

It's so cute when they accuse me of being scum simply because I'm being mean to them. Keep one thing in mind, mafia will likely have a much harder time winning without WWs around doing night kills, and I was one of the first to push this game in the WW-killing direction. My play is wholly inconsistent with what mafia's priorities ought to be.

I would be very surprised if Bulge does not flip WW. If he doesn't, then Bins almost certainly will. I stand by my conclusions from the beginning of the day. I think they're spot on. The BJC/Unsight slot is probably mafia. That would explain BJC's play and the attempts to frame me. Unsight's persistence looks like a deliberate attempt to push an incorrect read, rather than an honest mistake.

I'll let Unsight respond but that case isn't as impressive as it seems to look to others and is largely window dressing, and Wicked's personal opinion of the "fake crumb" is largely meaningless when it's obvious a significant enough portion of the town are going to get hung up on it and why more people don't seem to be aware of why us extending out a lynch centered on someone crumbing our only PR is bad is beyond me.

If Bulge flips town it removes any future wifom of that crumb and hopefully redirects wolves kill to Fuzzy, but that possibility is dwindling more and more the longer this goes on and more of us figure out who the seer is. This lynch should have gone through 2-3 pages ago.

Alright, so, despite inherent WIFOM, I've been looking at Klick (shaded) as possible WW, but I haven't really found anything from the slot that really speaks WW to me. The way Desperado tunneled on the slot right around his death is odd and I can't really make anything out of it. Could Klick be WW, I see no reason to rule that out.

Riddletons latest post kind of worries me a bit. Lynching someone other than WW today gives them another NK, meaning tomorrow it would be a 1v1v2, assuming we lynched mafia today and they didn't kill the other tonight. I'd feel a hell of a lot safer going into tomorrow knowing there are no more WWs and that town have the advantage.

Bins is probably town based on Days 2-4 posting.

VOTE: fuzzy


Someone explain to me why this has not happened already.

[Aegor]

Will review NM.

[Aegor]

Why do you think that you are going to die tonight?

Or, more specifically, why would you think that your being cleared by Wicked means you will die tonight? Am I missing game-breaking info here?

[Aegor]

Seriously, be smart about this. I don't give two shits if you think I'm scum or not. I'm guaranteed not Werewolf, meaning SOMEONE out there can still kill something. If we lynch WW today, you can lynch me tomorrow for all I care, but I'm not the correct lynch today.

I really do not care about nightkills at all. As long as they do not end the game, they are just ways to reduce the lynchpool the next day. I am fine with that. And if I lynch a mafioso today, then the remaining WW becomes an ally trying to get rid of the last mafioso.

And I am confused: will you die tonight or get lynched tomorrow?

[Aegor]

Why would I lynch uncertainly when I have what I would consider guaranteed scum?

[Aegor]

If we don't lynch WW, a nightkill might end the game.

1 WW
2 Maf
3 Town


We lynch a townie, then 1 WW, 2 Maf, 2 Town. Worst-case scenario, WW shoots town. Then 1 WW, 2 Maf, 1 Town. Maf win.

We lynch Maf, then 1 WW, 1 Maf, 3 Town. Worst-case scenario, WW shoots town. Then 1 WW, 1 Maf, 2 Town.

[Aegor]

I fail to see why I should feel compelled not to pursue a really strong Maf candidate simply because of the chance of a NK, which could not end the game if we nailed scum anyway.

[Aegor]

@aegor Fuzzy is alive because wolf hunting

Let us end that, yes?

[Aegor]

Problem: I do not think NM is a wolf as much as I think fuzzy is a maf.

Do you mind linking me to the case? I remember many posts stating that "it made sense" that NM is a wolf, but do not remember that many reasons. I will also ISO him.

[Aegor]

And no one is an MVP here, so I am unconcerned with the NK.

[Aegor]

Unless Pasch can tell me why, I do not care that his ISO read of NM led to a scumread. Again, there seems to be no case. Your own scumread stems from a flawed and tenuous night kill analysis.

I am more concerned about NM's reaction to the wagon on him.

[Aegor]

I am. Because chances are WW, if we lynch Maf, will not kill the next most suspicious person because they have to fight in LYLO.

So? There is not that much consensus on scumreads outside of NM and fuzzy anyway. If we manage to lynch the WW, we will have two days of lylo, one of those against a coordinated pair. Neither seems self-evidently better to me.

[Aegor]

And the fact I don't see how anyone else can be the damn WW.

PoE down to a single candidate? Surely you know better.

I don't know what's flawed about it.

Can you prove to me that Unsight was a Seer-seeking kill?

[Aegor]

NM, talk to me. Tell me why I should not hammer you.

[Aegor]

So you are scum?

[Aegor]

So you are scum?

No, but even if you are scumreading me there are safer lynches for today

What makes those lynches safer?

Who do you think Fuzzy's partner is?

Maybe Pasch. Not sure yet.

[Aegor]

You said that there would be safer lynches even if I were scumreading you. Define "safer."

[Aegor]

Please link me to a scumgame in which you were lynched. I am having problems finding scumgames of yours.

[Aegor]

Found one.

[Aegor]

I think...

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Why is Desp wolf and not just scum? And you're saying this is a shit lynch because there was no resistance, when I've pointed out why it should have gone through with no resistance and how this says nothing about the wagon itself. Bulge will be lynch fodder and a sticking point for every day he's still here, and we could have assumed a mafia kill like 4 pages ago, instead we're splitting wagons multiple times for no apparent reason.

If he flips town, it is on you. I wanted obvmaf fuzzy.

[Aegor]

So...we ended up lynching Maf anyway. =/

[Aegor]

I want to lynch fuzzy.

Objections?

[Aegor]

Y'all be crazay.

fuzzy, please specify what you mean by "lynching Aegor based off yesterdays play."

Also, you are more than welcome to ISO me for reasons you are hella scummy.

[Aegor]

^This right here proves that you had no interest in pursuing his lynch, meaning you didn't find him as mafia, yet you still hammered him

I thought it was possible he was a WW, as I said many times. I thought you were more likely to be a maf. I was willing to hammer NM given his scummy reaction and his inability to answer my questions compellingly.

You spent the entire day yesterday trying to advocate my lynch, saying that you "didn't think NM was as scummy as me," yet, when it came time for NM to be lynched, you were right there to do it. And then, after the hammer, you tried to push the blame onto someone else in the event he wasn't scum.

All of those things are true except the blame. Where is the problem?

i.e. You're scum, and you should be todays lynch.

How does that follow at all?

I shouldn't have to ISO anyone to find out your reads. If your reads are strong enough, you should have no problem saying them.

I have, you cronut. I want you lynched. I am not going to repost my reasons every single time someone asks because you all are too lazy to look them up.

[Aegor]

You thought it was possible he was WW but you'd still rather lynch someone you thought was mafia.. cool, so you are scum.

How does that make any sense? Why would mafia avoid lynching a potential WW under the pretense of wanting to lynch mafia? What are you even talking about? Why would mafia not want to eliminate the only faction that is capable of nightkilling them, especially since the remaining WW needed to be focused entirely on killing maf in order to win the game?

Why am I even arguing with you? Your completely illogical case is a pathetic attempt to shift focus away from you and onto me.

^Here's the "false" part. If you can't see the problem there, you should re-read.

There is no problem. Town would be out of the game if NM was town. I wanted your lynch; I compromised on NM because he was a decent (turned good, by the end) lynch and that is what the town wanted. I did not attempt to shift blame to any particular person, and there is nothing inherently problematic -- let alone scummy -- with noting that one is voting reluctantly.

So you're saying your reads haven't changed since the last time you posted them? How can that be if you're actively scum-hunting?

Why would my reads change simply because I am scumhunting? What a loaded questions.



Is anyone townreading chaos? Is anyone seeing this as anything other than an attempt to avoid his own lynch by acting aggressive toward his attackers?

[Aegor]

*question.

As for other team possibilities, I will look at Aegor/Riddleton. For now, Aegor, can you give me your read on Riddleton? I don't think you've even mentioned him.

He has been, frankly, a nonentity to me. I will review his ISO tomorrow.

[Aegor]

You specifically said "NM

could

be a werewolf, but I'd rather lynch this guy, who

could

be mafia. The fact that you would rather lynch a suspected mafia over a suspected werewolf in a setup like this is scummy as hell. You'd rather leave someone who has a nightkill alive than someone who can't do anything, ever.

It is not scummy at all. If anything, it should be reason to think I am town because Mafia has more incentive to eliminate the WW than to eliminate a townie via lynch. Moreover, I am town and therefore benefit from any scum lynch, so lynching someone I am convinced is scummy is better than lynching someone who may be scum. Third, I already explained why I did not care about the NK, and I still do not.

Again, this line of reasoning makes no sense and was addressed yesterday. But feel free to prolong your slow death by bringing up the same nonsense over and over again.

Your reads

should

change if you're actively scum hunting properly.

Why? Please explain why reads

should

change.

Regardless of where your actual vote ends, your reads should fluctuate,

unless you know something someone else doesn't

.

Why

should

my reads fluctuate?

You've basically tunneled on me since you joined this game, giving no chance that anyone else could be possible scum. If you're going to claim town, at least play like one.

I gave a chance that NM could be scum.

I have found a scum in you. There is no reason for me to change my solid read because you have yet to give me any reason to think you are town.

[Aegor]

Do you not understand how to play this game? As town, you have to look at

everyone

as possible scum.

I did and am. It does not follow that my reads should change. It is likely they will, but we both know that I replaced into this game with several days elapsed. That means that I read through everything that had been written since the beginning of the game all at once. My reads are solid and based on the entire content of the game, even if they are fallible.

You can't spend two whole days looking at

one

person and expect everyone to just believe you when you say "oh, this guy's scum. sheep me for victories."

I am not asking anyone to sheep me. My reasons for suspecting you are pretty clear. I happen to have pegged scum. Why should I abandon a prime suspect simply to satisfy your irrational approach to this game?

You did not give NM a chance. You said "Oh, I

guess

he could be scum, but I'm going to tunnel on Fuzzy more."

I pushed and questioned NM. This is public information, given that my posts are available to anyone reading this thread. When his answers were unsatisfying, I was sure

enough

that he was the WW to hammer him.

You clearly don't understand this setup. No one has more incentive to lynch anyone more than anyone else.

You just got done calling me scum for wanting to lynch the mafia more than the werewolf. Now you are telling me that I do not understand the setup because

no one

, including the mafia, has more incentive to lynch anyone more than anyone else.

Forgive me for doubting your motives when the only common element to your posting is calling me, who just happens to be the player attacking you the most, scum.

That aside, this setup

is

asymmetrical, which means priorities are different. Mafia do not get a NK and have only three members; they consequently, especially near the endgame, are more compelled to eliminate the other anti-town faction. One mafioso is a greater loss to the mafia than one townie is to the town.

Everyone

has to scumhunt if they want to win. Town has to do more work to win, but their incentive isn't any greater than anyone elses. The lack of work you've been doing proves to me that you

are

scum.

Yawn.

[Aegor]

Because you are not posting and my case against fuzzy has already been made.

[Aegor]

I have gone through Riddleton's ISO. I see nothing scummy in it, and I agree completely with him that the most likely scum pair is fuzzy/Pasch.

Anyone who thinks Riddleton is scum is more than welcome to explain why, so I can understand the thinking.

[Aegor]

This, however, very much depends on the situation the Mafia are in. I was thinking about this as well, and there are scenarios in which Mafia would want the WW killed and would not want the WW killed. The Mafia could have been wolfreading NM the whole time and never strongly pushed it.

My point is, if Mafia believed Not_Mafia was WW, and they weren't Riddleton or Fuzzy, they'd actually want him to be left alive for one more day.

So what would

my

hypothetical motivation be as scum to vote NM, given that after his unsatisfactory responses to my questions, I thought he could well be a WW?

Again, I don't see a case. Am I skimming over it?

In addition to all of his posts that I have quoted, which are individually scummy, consider his interactions with SM/Titus and his votes/posting in the pages preceding the Day 1 lynch, especially his late SplashCloud vote.

It's some nitpicks and arguments, not a case. It ended up being "I read the whole game at once, so trust my reads". Which does nothing to convince anyone that he's not simply lying.

[Aegor]

of course you haven't seen anything. He hasn't

done

anything.
at all.

Strange; I could say the same about you. And given that your case on Riddleton is that he is "not doing anything" -- despite his reasonable number of posts and clearly expressed reads -- while my case on you is that your posts are actively scummy, I see no reason why anyone should find your non-case credible.

as far as the previous argument, I'm done with it. It's like talking to a brick wall, honestly. All you've done is dismiss everything I've said.

What you have said is factually inaccurate or completely irrational, as I have clearly explained. I have not merely dismissed what you said, I have rebutted it successfully. I am sorry that you are unable to construct coherent cases. But you are scum, so maybe that is why.

The most likely scum pair is Aegor/Riddleton. I very seriously doubt Pasch and Bins are scum, just based off the way they're playing today. I'll likely read over them some more when I actually get the chance, but I don't really have the time right now. I believe Aegor is who we should lynch today, unless Riddleton actually has something he'd like to do other than, well, nothing. The worst possible thing we could have in a LYLO situation is someone who doesn't contribute at all.

I can think of one worse thing: have a clear scum candidate who gets passed over for inexplicable reasons.

You should explain your Pasch town read; it makes no sense to me.

[Aegor]

You weren't at risk of getting NK'd by NM, neither was Riddleton. He probably would have gone with Fuzzy, but I can't say that for sure. Which is why it makes sense that you would be okay with lynching someone who definitely not a WW.

Which I was. But by that same reasoning, those players who were

particularly

intent on lynching the WW should also be scrutinized.

[Aegor]

Honestly, the suggestion that he wanted to vote last seemed very town, actually. I don't think scum would have suggested that.

Why not? Surely after your analysis of scum motivation vis-a-vis the WW lynch yesterday, you can grasp the reason that a scum may want to guarantee himself a quickhammer position?



Anyway, my earlier setup analysis is wrong, I have just realized. If we lynch correctly today, tomorrow is not lylo. Which is weird in that the game proceeds from lylo to not lylo. Anywho...

[Aegor]

Again, I disagree. Scum had a strong incentive to become the only anti-town faction and eliminate the possibility of getting NKed.

[Aegor]

And I disagree about Pasch as well; that is exactly something I would expect scum to say.

[Aegor]

Only if we were more sure about the WW than the mafia.

[Aegor]

Uhh, town can't be certain of anything.

That is just not true, even in this setup: we have a seer. Second, there are layers of conviction, which is exactly my point.

NM was the most likely candidate for being a wolf, that's why he was lynched. No matter which way you look at it, lynching WW was, and will always be, more important to town in that situation.

I agree that he was the most likely candidate for being a wolf, but that does not mean that he was the most likely candidate for scum. As I said, I felt much more sure that you are mafia than I did NM was a wolf, even though he was the most likely wolf candidate.

You seem not to be reading my posts.

Ceteris paribus

, certainly lynching the WW is ideal for town. But things were not equal, and people did not necessarily feel equally certain about their WW and Maf candidates. Had we mislynched, town could have basically been out of the game. It was more important to lynch scum than the WW.

[Aegor]

You seem not to be reading my posts. Ceteris paribus, certainly lynching the WW is ideal for town. But things were not equal, and people did not necessarily feel equally certain about their WW and Maf candidates. Had we mislynched, town could have basically been out of the game. It was more important to lynch scum than the WW.

Oh, I'm reading your posts very clearly. I'm well aware of what would happen

if

we mislynched, but lynching the WW is the best course of action we could have taken yesterday.

You are not reading my posts, or your own, for that matter, given that you said town ultimately guesses anyway and therefore the "if" is not a mere hypothetical. We could not simply assume we would be lynching the WW.

Not

lynching the only person who was guaranteed

not Werewolf

. That's what YOU aren't understanding. If we hadn't lynched WW yesterday, town would be down one/two people anyway.

I understand that completely, but it still makes no sense to attempt to kill a WW that we are 10% sure on rather than a mafioso we are, say, 90% sure on. I still cannot grasp what part of that is confusing to you.

I really do not care about NKs; no one in this game is that useful.

[Aegor]

We weren't "10%" sure. We were pretty damn sure.

I was not, which is all that matters to me anyway.

[Aegor]

fuzzy, my push on you is not without reason.


And I would tentatively be fine lynching Riddleton. At any rate, it seems that at least one of Riddleton/fuzzy is scum.

[Aegor]

fuzzy, scum had time to hammer you yesterday and today. For that reason, one of you is probably scum. After Riddleton's recent reappearance and preemptive aggression, I am less certain of anything than I was before.

[Aegor]

fuzzy, scum had time to hammer you yesterday and today. For that reason, one of you is probably scum. After Riddleton's recent reappearance and preemptive aggression, I am less certain of anything than I was before.

..if scum took the chance to hammer every time they got it, town would always win.

It is lylo.

[Aegor]

I mean real-time yesterday.

[Aegor]

I never said it was certain; I only said it was probable. I cannot speak for the scum in this game, but I tend to notify my buddies of my availability as the game draws on.

[Aegor]

Are you sure enough that Riddleton is scum to vote him? What is your list of scumspects?

[Aegor]

Yeah, Riddleton is. He's your partner.

Lame.

Scum don't have daychat. I think you can speak for the scum in this game and you are trying to tell your partner something here.

Scum have night chat. I already told you that I habitually discuss quickhammer timing with my partners in my night QT. Are you saying that I forgot to do what I just said I always do, and am now trying to coordinate a quickhammer time publicly?

Also, why would I attempt to schedule a quickhammer with my alleged partner, who is also the only one voting? None of that makes any sense.

Why am I even responding to assertions with no basis? Why am I asking so many questions?

[Aegor]

When?

[Aegor]

Which was how long ago, again?

[Aegor]

And this is coming out in lylo? Talk about convenient.

Maybe you should just vote me, given how certain you are.

[Aegor]

Aegor: Can you verify the game actually exists which he's talking about, or is pasch making it up?

I have no reason to believe he is lying. My larger point is that it was probably my first or second scum game after a hiatus of several years; obviously I did not rejoin the site with all of my strategies fully developed.

You only brought up your self meta here during lylo. Or do you mean the points I just made about your slot? Those have all been made before. I'm just summarizing.

Nice try. My self-meta was a response to your suspicion, which materialized in the endgame and is now being retroactively justified via a cursory read on my predecessor.

All in good time.

i.e. you are waiting to quickhammer for the scum win.

Town players: Pasch is transparently scum. He has latched onto potential mislynches, and is now tunneling them. He shows no indication whatsoever of "changing his mind" (in quotations because he is scum and therefore any "change" is merely acting), yet refuses to vote those players whom he is tunneling and who he adamantly believes are scum, even though one of them is already being voted. This suggests that he wishes to quickhammer and avoid confirming that one of him and Riddleton is definite scum. I want thoughts on this theory.

[Aegor]

I doubt that either of my teammates are going to fall for your line, Aegor. The game is basically over. We just need to decide if we're lynching you or Riddleton first.

You are so dumb. You are on the record as strongly and incontrovertibly believing that Riddleton and I are on a team, and you have closed any window through which you may have escaped on your Riddleton read. Your holding off on your vote while simultaneously claiming that you are "comfortable" voting either of us is therefore self-contradictory and scummy.

I should have elaborated more before hitting submit... My decision for the towniest players to vote last was specifically to avoid a quickhammer. Of course, only the scum disagree with that notion.

There is clearly no consensus as to who is the towniest, and therefore you plan is stupid.

My summary of the play of your slot isn't any kind of retroactive justification. It was a fresh description of your slot's play after a re-read.

What you posted was neither fresh nor descriptive; it was a vague condemnation used as a retroactive justification, as I said.

Likewise the accusation of tunneling is nonsense... hunted werewolves like it was my job.

It was the job of every player still alive.

My alignment is obvious from my play. Even you know how obvious it is, which is why you're forced to rely on such lame accusations.

Appeal to self-evidence is my favorite scumtell. And if my slot were as obvious as you made it seem, you would have hardly needed a re-read that culminated in a vacuous post reaffirming your suspicion of me.



Vote Riddleton now. You clearly have no reason to hold off and are not going to change your mind anytime soon.

[Aegor]

Bins, hold off on voting. Let Pasch vote Riddleton first and let us see what happens. You (Bins) are my only townread at the moment.

[Aegor]

Good job, scumteam! So I was right about fuzzy. =/