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Post Post #1550 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:26 am

Post by MTD »

In post 1549, Heartless wrote:
In post 1542, davesaz wrote:
In post 1533, MTD wrote:
In post 1523, davesaz wrote:Too many silent people.

The
only
way there can be missing kills, without MonkeyMan's roleblock having hit scum, is additional town PRs. And if there is even one more, there
must
be
at least
three to give us a total of at least 5. The only setups with a godfather are 0-2 T's (5+ power roles) and 5-7 T's. (0-2 power roles)

Isn't there still the possibility that the RB claim was false?
Also you are ignoring the possibility of crosskills.
Also don't forget the potential SK-bulletproof.

I bolded things and underlined for a reason. It is anti-town to fully explain the reason.


...it really isn't rocket science, mtd. what's the hang-up here?

I really don't understand what you are talking about, dave said the only possibility for missing kills was the RB having hit scum, I likst at least 2 more possibilities. What's the problem?
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Post Post #1551 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:42 am

Post by MTD »

@MOD: V/LA tomorrow through Sunday.
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Post Post #1552 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:45 am

Post by Aneninen »

In post 1540, MTD wrote:
I am saying right now, that I think you guys are ignoring far too many possibilities for me to conclusively think that DS is scum.
Like, all of you just ignore the SK (which IMO is pretty obvious we have) in about half of your posts.
Also, who said the Vig has to claim but the Doctor doesn't? That doesn't really make sense to me atmo.
Also, if we didn't have all that setup stuff, Monkey looks like obvious scum to me, so I am confused.


Was this an answer for me or for MonkeyMan?
Maybe the latter one because (1) I haven't ignored the possiblility of an SK and (2) I explained my ideas about the claims (and I told that the Vig should claim next Day, not this Day.)
I still can't see the benefits of MonkeyMan's gameplay if he's scum.

@Sthar. I've read your . I see your point, but I won't tell whether I agree with it. This time I must say that I'm unwilling to discuss this topic any further because I think we would only give ideas for the Mafia. Also, Davesaz's answer ( – if it was an answer for that) made no sense at all.

________

Besides MonkeyMan, who think my idea is terrible, is there anyone who would discuss my ?
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Post Post #1553 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:51 am

Post by MTD »

In post 1552, Aneninen wrote:Maybe the latter one because (1) I haven't ignored the possiblility of an SK and (2) I explained my ideas about the claims (and I told that the Vig should claim next Day, not this Day.)
I still can't see the benefits of MonkeyMan's gameplay if he's scum.

It was to all of you actually.
(1) I said in half your post, you sometimes did, not as much as others, though.
(2) Ok, IMO that depends on todays lynch, if we plan to lynch DS today, either should claim now I think.
(3) Well, at the beginning of the day DS put up suspicion of monkey, which I agreed with, Monkey has subsequently turned that around on DS, so I can definitely see benefits right there.
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Post Post #1554 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 10:59 am

Post by Brian Skies »

In post 1528, Aneninen wrote:Okay, here's the idea.

I read it, but I don't understand why you're setting up a contingency based on an event not occurring, which is the entirety of this post if I'm understanding it correctly.

In post 1528, Aneninen wrote:
We know for sure that there are 0–2 Ts or 5–6 Ts
and we should assume that MonkeyMan is telling the truth, so he's Town RoleBlocker. (So, 7 Ts is not possible.)

?

In post 1539, Aneninen wrote:However,
you told me that it had been obvious for you that MonkeyMan would claim Roleblocker before DeathStare had mentioned that possibility
. That means, my strongest reason against DeathStare has just been refuted by you.

Why is this the strongest reason for you to suspect DeathStare? I'd think the claimed roleblock in the face of no scumkill is much more incriminating.

From what I've read, there is sufficient reason to suspect and/or lynch Deathstare. If we assume Monkey's claim to be true, then a 6T setup can't exist with the kill on scum (SK and Vig don't fit). A 5T setup can exist, but means we have an SK and probably not a vig. Another RB or Doc claim could provide sufficient reason to not have to lynch Death today if the only reason to suspect them is the RB claim. However, the lack of a RB or Doc claim would pretty much condemn Giffy to die (no other explanation for missing Mafia kill other than Mafia hitting SK [in which case SK is probably dying tonight] and a VT isn't the worst thing we could lose for following our best lead). 0-2Ts means we probably have a lot more power left and Death still wouldn't be the greatest loss.

As far as I can tell, unless someone can provide sufficient reasoning for the lack of a Mafia kill or for not believing Monkey's claim, Death is probably a good lynch for the day. A mass claim should happen soon (tomorrow if not today) anyways for potential setup-breaking.
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Post Post #1555 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:02 am

Post by Nero Cain »

@Anen-I liked your 1528 and have a similar thought process.

vote:DS
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #1556 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:08 am

Post by MTD »

Yup, if we have no additional claims today, I agree we need massclaim tomorrow.
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Post Post #1557 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:19 am

Post by Brian Skies »

I've been waiting to see if there's anything that might clear Death of suspicion. But since nothing interesting has happened and lynching DS is low risk high reward, let's move on with our lives.

Vote: DeathStare
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Post Post #1558 (ISO) » Thu Oct 30, 2014 11:24 am

Post by Jingle »

DAY 3 FINAL VOTE COUNT
You find yourself in a grand entrance hall, wandering through two rows of pillars. You climb a flight of stairs, coming to a narrow balcony when one of your own points an accusing finger. "You! I saw you, last night, up to no good! you must be one of the ones who've been killing people!"

Death Stare backed up slowly, but lost his footing on the edge of the stairs, tripping and falling to his doom. Gathering around the pitiful heap, you're just in time to hear his last words: "I'm innocent." Sharing an uneasy glance, you split up to try to find someplace good to rest tonight.


Death Stare (6): MonkeyMan, davesaz, Heartless, sthar8, Nero Cain, Brian Skies
Nero Cain (1): massive
MonkeyMan (0):
massive (0):
sthar8 (0):
davesaz (0):
Heartless (0):
Brian Skies (0):
Aneninen (0):
MTD (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (3): MTD, Death Stare, Aneninen

A LYNCH HAS BEEN REACHED!

It is now Night 3. Deadline for night actions is in (expired on 2014-11-01 15:00:00) at 4:00 PM on Saturday, November 1st Pacific Time.


Death Stare has been Lynched.


He was:
A Vanilla Townie.


Vanilla TownieWelcome to Open 573, Death Stare, you are a
Vanilla Townie
.

Abilities:
Your weapon is your vote, you have no night actions.

Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one town player alive.
Last edited by Jingle on Fri Oct 31, 2014 9:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1559 (ISO) » Fri Oct 31, 2014 10:09 am

Post by Jingle »

I'll be at work when the new day begins, so I might not be as quick as normal. :( I'll do my best to ensure a quick start of day, however. :]
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Post Post #1560 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 1:59 pm

Post by Jingle »

You meet again in the entrance hall of the castle, wondering if the day will be like the last few. Waiting for everyone, you again find your number reduced by one. MTD appears to have been hung from the banister of the stairs where Death Stare fell. The tragic loss shocks you all, but you press on regardless after you lay your two fallen comrades to rest.


MTD,
Vanilla Townie
, was Murder/Death/Killed on N3!

Vanilla TownieWelcome to Open 573, MTD, you are a
Vanilla Townie
.

Abilities:
Your weapon is your vote, you have no night actions.

Win condition:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated and there is at least one town player alive.


Vote Count 4.0
Nero Cain (0):
MonkeyMan (0):
massive (0):
sthar8 (0):
davesaz (0):
Heartless (0):
Brian Skies (0):
Aneninen (0):
No Lynch (0):
Not Voting (8): Nero Cain, MonkeyMan, massive, sthar8, davesaz, Heartless, Brian Skies, Aneninen

With 8 Alive, it is 5 to Lynch or No Lynch.

It is now Day 4. Deadline is in (expired on 2014-11-15 21:00:00) at 10:00 PM on Saturday, November 15th Pacific Time.
Last edited by Jingle on Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post Post #1561 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:29 pm

Post by MonkeyMan »

I can't help but feel like I am being setup with that fact there was only one kill.

1-shot vig should defintely claim. They should have claimed yesterday actually. Regular vig I guess we should discuss whether they should claim or not.

I don't want to reveal whom I RB'd at this time. I will say after we decide if regular vig should claim.

EVERYONE Claim whether or not you are 1-shot vig in next post. If you do otherwise I will consider you scum.
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Post Post #1562 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:36 pm

Post by Nero Cain »

^^^
hates your guts

still think we should lynch between massive, skies and dave.
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit
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Post Post #1563 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 4:54 pm

Post by davesaz »

Crunching numbers...
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Post Post #1564 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:39 pm

Post by Brian Skies »

Can we just massclaim? There's like no reason not to.
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Post Post #1565 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:42 pm

Post by MonkeyMan »

In post 1562, Nero Cain wrote:^^^
hates your guts

still think we should lynch between massive, skies and dave.


Scum claim, like I said. Also, why do you hate me?
In post 1563, davesaz wrote:Crunching numbers...


Read above response.

In post 1564, Brian Skies wrote:Can we just massclaim? There's like no reason not to.


If you want mass claim why not claim yourself to start it? I will forgive this one since you want everyone to claim their actual roles.
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Post Post #1566 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 5:48 pm

Post by Brian Skies »

VT, popcorn whoever. I'll be back after I reread some stuff and roles are claimed.
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Post Post #1567 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:06 pm

Post by davesaz »

@MonkeyMan I don't think you get to just order people to claim, even something as simple as "not 1-shot vig". Is everyone scum if nobody responds? :roll: Does it help scum more than town if some answer and some don't?

Whatever you do, don't reveal your RB target until we know if the setup is 2T or 5T.
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Post Post #1568 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:35 pm

Post by MonkeyMan »

I already decided to wait until later to say whom I roleblocked. I need more precautions than yesterday because we lynched a VT because of a missing kill.

I can do what I want. Not 1-shot vig is a very appropriate thing to ask and if someone was a 1-shot vig they wouldn't care about claiming. It is a win-win. It will let me know if I potentially stopped a kill or if yesterday a 1-shot vig killed the GF.
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Post Post #1569 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:28 pm

Post by sthar8 »

gogo gadget massclaim!
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Post Post #1570 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:01 pm

Post by Aneninen »

I'm a VT.
I don't think this has been a surprise, though.
I'll post more a bit later, but (1) I have a couple of things to do now and (2) the cat is not impressed that I want to type instead of caressing him
now he's on the keyboard, has just found the space bar.

I'm trying to type this: there were those posts from MTD and Brain Skies, 1553 and 1554. They wanted some answers from me but before I was able to do so the day ended. Should I include the answers for those too?
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Post Post #1571 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:48 pm

Post by Brian Skies »

If you want to.
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Post Post #1572 (ISO) » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:51 pm

Post by Brian Skies »

Massive - VT?
Brian - VT
Aneninen - VT
Monkey - RB

I'm gonna exercise my previous right to popcorn because Aneninen didn't. Popcorn Dave.
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Post Post #1573 (ISO) » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:24 am

Post by Aneninen »

Okay, BrainSkies.

As for MTD:
In post 1553, MTD wrote:
In post 1552, Aneninen wrote:Maybe the latter one because (1) I haven't ignored the possiblility of an SK and (2) I explained my ideas about the claims (and I told that the Vig should claim next Day, not this Day.)
I still can't see the benefits of MonkeyMan's gameplay if he's scum.

It was to all of you actually.
(1) I said in half your post, you sometimes did, not as much as others, though.
(2) Ok, IMO that depends on todays lynch, if we plan to lynch DS today, either should claim now I think.
(3) Well, at the beginning of the day DS put up suspicion of monkey, which I agreed with, Monkey has subsequently turned that around on DS, so I can definitely see benefits right there.


(1) I think he meant my . I examined the possibility of having an SK and not having an SK too, in the aspect of my idea. Right now my idea posted there is obsolete since DeathStare was lynched.

However, a couple of things we should remember. MonkeyMan was against my idea without an explanation. I hope he managed to do something useful last Night. MTD was talking with me about it but we can't finish that conversation anymore. Nero told in that he liked my idea and he
still
voted for DeathStare.

(2) As for the claims, half of us have already claimed. I think it would be pointless to stop massclaiming now.

(3) As for MonkeyMan, see below!

(I know I haven't answered the "original" questions right now but I think a couple of things there are not relevant anymore.)

________

As for BrainSkies

In post 1554, Brian Skies wrote:
In post 1528, Aneninen wrote:
We know for sure that there are 0–2 Ts or 5–6 Ts
and we should assume that MonkeyMan is telling the truth, so he's Town RoleBlocker. (So, 7 Ts is not possible.)

?


3Ts and 4Ts are impossible because there is no Godfather in those setups. 7Ts would be possible only if there were no PRs and I still believe MonkeyMan's claim.

In post 1554, Brian Skies wrote:
In post 1539, Aneninen wrote:However,
you told me that it had been obvious for you that MonkeyMan would claim Roleblocker before DeathStare had mentioned that possibility
. That means, my strongest reason against DeathStare has just been refuted by you.

Why is this the strongest reason for you to suspect DeathStare? I'd think the claimed roleblock in the face of no scumkill is much more incriminating.1

From what I've read, there is sufficient reason to suspect and/or lynch Deathstare. If we assume Monkey's claim to be true, then a 6T setup can't exist with the kill on scum (SK and Vig don't fit). A 5T setup can exist, but means we have an SK and probably not a vig.2 Another RB or Doc claim could provide sufficient reason to not have to lynch Death today if the only reason to suspect them is the RB claim. However, the lack of a RB or Doc claim would pretty much condemn Giffy to die3
(post has been edited by me)

(1) I thought that calling MonkeyMan a Roleblocker before his claim was an example for
"Information instead of Analysis"
. Since MTD pointed out that it was very likely that MonkeyMan had been about to claim Roleblocker, I started thinking that it was only me who hadn't realized it. So, it wasn't an
"Information instead of Analysis"
at all.

(2) You pointed out an error in my original post. Thanks, that makes the things a bit clearer. If it turns out that the setup is either 5T or 6T – we'll know that because of the massclaim – either we have an SK or MonkeyMan lied. But, I still don't see the benefits of MonkeyMan's gameplay if he's scum.
@Anyone who thinks he's lying, please explain why it would be useful for MonkeyMan to fake-claim a Roleblocker.

(3) After half of the claim I start to think that the setup is not in the 0–2T zone. Simple statistics, I suppose. The most "packed" version would be eg. VVCCRTT, because VV= Vigilante (unlimited) and CC= Cop (unlimited). Of course, there may be other versions too but if there
were
at least 3 PRs, the other two PRs should have provided us something useful – and we had a mislynch Yesterday! Eg. referring to your post, BrainSkies, I mean, someone could have done something for DeathStare.

________

Right now, I'm waiting for the other claims. But meanwhile, I saw something interesting...

In post 1567, davesaz wrote:@MonkeyMan I don't think you get to just order people to claim, even something as simple as "not 1-shot vig". Is everyone scum if nobody responds? :roll: Does it help scum more than town if some answer and some don't?
Whatever you do, don't reveal your RB target
until we know if the setup is 2T or 5T
.

Am I an idiot again or is it an
Information instead of Analysis
?
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Post Post #1574 (ISO) » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:59 am

Post by Nero Cain »

In post 1565, MonkeyMan wrote:Also, why do you hate me?

I hate your guts 'cause you claimed and more or less were the main 'cause of the DS mislynch. As I said yesterday, you blocking him and there not being a scumkill wasn't proof positive but yea, I helped lynch him 'cause he was giving up, he was useless anyways, and it was very unlikely that anyone else was going to get lynched.


So right now the only folks that I really trust right now are Aneninen and MonkeyMan. Heartless is a bit meh but I'm getting a little bit worried 'cause they haven't been near as active as they were before but thats still not for today me thinks. This leaves sthar8, davesaz, Brian Skies and Massive and I'm p sure scum are there. Skies is guilty of the same thing Mollie was guilty of: town reading me when they always scumread me. I could see buddy Dave hard defending her. I could see scum sthar defending wegurts for the town cred and then distancing from his buddy. But Massive seems the scummiest of the group to me 'cause claiming at l-2 was dumb. Him saying that I both wasn't scum reading wegurts and that I was avoiding discussing MM/DS yesterday (while he was doing the same thing) are both so false that this looks more like a scum filling the thread with bullshit than someone not reading the thread correctly.

vote:massive
Of all tyrannies,a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

edited c.s. lewis quote b/c limit

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