Open 575: Friends & Enemies-Together At Last (OVER)

[acryon]

but to me it was ultimately a null/lean scum-motivation.

You think that particular interaction with Mala leans scum? Why

It's not that I necessarily think it leans scum on its own or very strongly. More-so that I think it more leans-scum to me than leans-town if that makes sense. I think it is mostly a null, but if the choices are between: (A) Town genuinely annoyed/curious about why the quickhammer and (B) Scum using twilight to feign townie frustration, then in the case of BMWS, I choose (B).

[borkjerfkin]

Can you explain that in a way that isn't a total nonanswer?

[borkjerfkin]

I'm reading it as "I think hes scum therefore this action is probably scummy on its own merit" which is hilariously backward

[acryon]

Can you explain that in a way that isn't a total nonanswer?

Not sure why I have to explain why I think it was ultimately a null? As I said before and in my most recent write-up, I think it is ultimately a null, but to those that think it was a town-tell, I would argue that it was more of a scum-tell than a town-tell. You had a gut-feeling that it was town, and I don't share that gut-feeling.

P.edit: I have said more than once that it was a null more than anything, but I disagree with the idea that it was a town-tell.

[acryon]

It's impossible to prove intent without a flip, so we are left to our guts in determining whether the particular action was by scum or town. You think the latter; I feel the former. It is certainly not anywhere close to a linchpin of my case, or even something that I am calling out as actually scummy, but given your desire to reject my statement that it is a null and pick a side, I've picked scum.

[borkjerfkin]

Well you disagree with my assertion that it is town with the town motivation I have attributed to it and are being really vague in telling me how I'm wrong or how its null or how it actually leans scum or whatever argument you seem to be trying to make.


So it doesn't look like bmws was genuinely trying to read mala there? Why is it "more of a scum tell than a town tell"

[borkjerfkin]

but given your desire to reject my statement that it is a null and pick a side, I've picked scum.

what

[acryon]

Well you disagree with my assertion that it is town with the town motivation I have attributed to it and are being really vague in telling me how I'm wrong or how its null or how it actually leans scum or whatever argument you seem to be trying to make.

You are trying to get me to explain to you how your gut-read is wrong? How can I explain how a premise based on gut is wrong other than to explain that a gut-feeling is not a valid argument?

So it doesn't look like bmws was genuinely trying to read mala there? Why is it "more of a scum tell than a town tell"

No, I don't think he was trying to read mala there. I think he was trying to look like he was reading mala there, but that is my gut-feeling. You're asking me to explain why my gut-feeling disagrees with your gut-feeling, and I can't explain that to you.

I'm honestly very confused at what you are confused about here.

I thought it was ultimately a null. You thought it was town. I said I thought there was a bigger chance it was scum than town. You asked why I thought it was scum. I explained that I didn't really think it was scum, but that I thought there was a greater chance of it being scum than town. Why? Because my gut tells me there was a greater chance that it was him trying to look town and using twilight as an opportunity to do so than him actually questioning Mala as town.

Long-story-short: Null, but given Scum and Town as only options, Scum.

[borkjerfkin]

So it doesn't look like bmws was genuinely trying to read mala there?

To expound on that, the only way I really see that being scummy from BMWS is if he were scum trying to fake that exact interaction so that I'd townread him for it.

Which is something he would have no idea I'd do at that point.

The alternative is that he was actually really worried about Mala after that hammer, which did not involve hedging on Vic's alignment. That makes this more about Mala than Vic, and the only reason that would be the case was him trying to figure Mala out.

[borkjerfkin]

You are trying to get me to explain to you how your gut-read is wrong? How can I explain how a premise based on gut is wrong other than to explain that a gut-feeling is not a valid argument?

The only place my gut comes into it is how strong I am weighing that point (very strongly).

[borkjerfkin]

I thought it was ultimately a null. You thought it was town. I said I thought there was a bigger chance it was scum than town. You asked why I thought it was scum. I explained that I didn't really think it was scum, but that I thought there was a greater chance of it being scum than town. Why? Because my gut tells me there was a greater chance that it was him trying to look town and using twilight as an opportunity to do so than him actually questioning Mala as town.

Long-story-short: Null, but given Scum and Town as only options, Scum.

Dude

I don't give a shit why something is town as long as you can adequately explain why that is.
I don't give a shit why something is null as long as you can adequately explain why that is.
I don't give a shit why something is scummy as long as you can adequately explain why that is.

[acryon]

So it doesn't look like bmws was genuinely trying to read mala there?

To expound on that, the only way I really see that being scummy from BMWS is if he were scum trying to fake that exact interaction so that I'd townread him for it.

Which is something he would have no idea I'd do at that point.

The alternative is that he was actually really worried about Mala after that hammer, which did not involve hedging on Vic's alignment. That makes this more about Mala than Vic, and the only reason that would be the case was him trying to figure Mala out.

I still think the latter is more probably. And it doesn't exactly take a genius to realize that being the first-responder to something like a quick-hammer and leading the questioning can get you town-cred.

[acryon]

Sorry, the former.

[acryon]

I thought it was ultimately a null. You thought it was town. I said I thought there was a bigger chance it was scum than town. You asked why I thought it was scum. I explained that I didn't really think it was scum, but that I thought there was a greater chance of it being scum than town. Why? Because my gut tells me there was a greater chance that it was him trying to look town and using twilight as an opportunity to do so than him actually questioning Mala as town.

Long-story-short: Null, but given Scum and Town as only options, Scum.

Dude

I don't give a shit why something is town as long as you can adequately explain why that is.
I don't give a shit why something is null as long as you can adequately explain why that is.
I don't give a shit why something is scummy as long as you can adequately explain why that is.

Yes, but the problem is this isn't really something that can be worked through unless there are other interactions that point to it being one way or the other, and maybe that's my fault for engaging on an issue that didn't have a real resolve. Without other pieces to point it in a certain direction, we are left with essentially gut-reads based on experience that tell us why that specific interaction felt town or scum.

[acryon]

Maybe it's best to move on from this point. What are the other interactions that point you to BMWS-town?

[borkjerfkin]

My issue is that you had that slot leaning town yesterday, and once things flip in a way that goes against your reads, you immediately readjust them without a thought process that I can really see into, with a good heap of what seems to me like confirmation bias while you do it.

[borkjerfkin]

bork, did Mala have any more commentary on BMWS's response to her hammer? I think her input would be good here to finish up D1 analysis of him.

No, I was really the only one who ever talked about that

[acryon]

My issue is that you had that slot leaning town yesterday, and once things flip in a way that goes against your reads, you immediately readjust them without a thought process that I can really see into, with a good heap of what seems to me like confirmation bias while you do it.

Well my reads obviously

had

to change dramatically. When my primary (and only) scum-read was on someone who flips town, there is bound to be some drastic changes somewhere. I had Bmws leaning town, I had Newbie as probably town, I had you as conftown, I had Mathdino as town. One of those

had

to switch to a scum-read.

[borkjerfkin]

Talk to me about your mathdino & newbie reads

[borkjerfkin]

Well my reads obviously had to change dramatically. When my primary (and only) scum-read was on someone who flips town, there is bound to be some drastic changes somewhere. I had Bmws leaning town, I had Newbie as probably town, I had you as conftown, I had Mathdino as town. One of those had to switch to a scum-read.

That's fine but you didn't say PoE, you decided he was scum for a number of reasons independently of everyone else.

[acryon]

Well my reads obviously had to change dramatically. When my primary (and only) scum-read was on someone who flips town, there is bound to be some drastic changes somewhere. I had Bmws leaning town, I had Newbie as probably town, I had you as conftown, I had Mathdino as town. One of those had to switch to a scum-read.

That's fine but you didn't say PoE, you decided he was scum for a number of reasons independently of everyone else.

Realizing there are only 4 people in the game that could be scum and you town-read all of them, so going back over each and determining one of them looks to be scummy based on their actions and the fact that one of them has to be scum isn't strictly PoE. You're totally misrepresenting here and I'm not sure what case on anyone I could present without you making the same argument. It's a stupid argument because it applies to every case I could make simply because I'm in a bad position reads-wise. Someone was going from a town-read to a scum-read because one of those "townies" was scum. It's just the nature of where my reads were at and where they (clearly) failed. That's just the facts of this game, so no progression is going to seem natural because I didn't think any of them were likely to be scum before, but I have to now.

[borkjerfkin]

Realizing there are only 4 people in the game that could be scum and you town-read all of them, so going back over each and determining one of them looks to be scummy based on their actions and the fact that one of them has to be scum isn't strictly PoE. You're totally misrepresenting here and I'm not sure what case on anyone I could present without you making the same argument. It's a stupid argument because it applies to every case I could make simply because I'm in a bad position reads-wise. Someone was going from a town-read to a scum-read because one of those "townies" was scum. It's just the nature of where my reads were at and where they (clearly) failed. That's just the facts of this game, so no progression is going to seem natural because I didn't think any of them were likely to be scum before, but I have to now.

Ok.

Let's talk Mathdino and Newbie.

[acryon]

That's fair. Like I said, we have plenty of time, so I am more than happy to be proved wrong if we can find someone better, because I'm not exactly extremely confident given I mostly town-read everyone before today.

Re: Mathdino and Newbie. Any initial impressions before I take a look or things you think I should take an extra hard look at?

[borkjerfkin]

Reasons for pushing / not pushing Vic Wisdom would be a good start.

I am doing that too for all four of you.

[borkjerfkin]

Mathdino in particular has been getting almost no pressure from anyone due to how townleader-y he's been the whole game. You just wrote him off as well - just wondering where your head is there.

He did a similar thing to Newbie (even going so far as to suggest voting Newbie is a scumclaim). That seems like a really silly thing to say.