Open 575: Friends & Enemies-Together At Last (OVER)

[Mathdino]

What threw me for a loop was that wgeurts entered the game with a Slayer Gambit and generally showed himself capable of pretending he had no idea what the fuck he was doing (and has shown himself to be capable of that in other games) so I figured he was mason-fishing using the mask of a newbtown.

lol no you didn't

you arbitrarily decided he was mason fishing because "interactive tells are different in a mason game" which is a silly argument in and of itself - just because masons will act a certain way doesn't mean that scum will necessarily act differently than normal to compensate, nor should you be holding anyone to that arbitrary standard you just created. But I think you know that.

Even if you hadn't said that, I can't get from "wgeurts is capable of playing dumb as scum" to "wgeurts is necessarily mason fishing right now and could not possibly be pre-flip associative scumhunting and is therefore scum", because legitimately dumb town would obviously be genuinely trying to hunt via associative tells, considering that's exactly what he said he was doing. The slayer's gambit or whatever the fuck doesn't even apply here; he's just scumhunting, which is the obvious way to interpret Wgeurts' play that you somehow missed.

Not buying it.

Uh, yeah, I did, check my ISO. I expanded on this a lot in D1.

Interactive tells ARE different in a mason game. Wisdom tried to draw an association between 2 masons. Obviously he was incorrect (saying one of them was scum). Scum won't act differently, but when you try to draw associations, you have to be careful that you're not confusing scum with masons. I hold wgeurts to the standard of not drawing pre-flip associations in a mason game, just in case.

I didn't say he could not POSSIBLY be doing that. I found that the most likely scenario, compounded with the other scummy things he was doing. The moment someone uses a slayer's gambit or intends to look newbtown, they lose newbtown credibility with me. The fact that he was outright asking people straight up if they were masons was a bit too much for me.
I want to note again that wgeurts has in the past used his newbtown persona to rolefish as scum. I think my suspicions of him for that were very founded.

tl;dr: If you pretend to be newbtown once, you can do it again. Simply assuming he was newbtown would be naive (in absence of knowing his meta).

[borkjerfkin]

I found that the most likely scenario

And that was silly of you.

The fact that he was outright asking people straight up if they were masons was a bit too much for me.

Check your timestamps, because you seem to have events a bit out of order...(your vote on wgeurts came before he even started talking about that, and you brought it up, not him.)

[borkjerfkin]

you have to be careful that you're not confusing scum with masons. I hold wgeurts to the standard of not drawing pre-flip associations in a mason game, just in case.

And if 'be careful of false positives' were the angle you took I'd have been fine with it.

It wasn't; you called him scum that was mason fishing because he wanted to know who the masons were.

[borkjerfkin]

237, her Wisdom case. Now, let's be clear, Wisdom was not scummy D1. It was D2 where he stood out, but not early D1. See, Newbie was the first one to write up a case on Wisdom, stretching his actions a bit to look scummy, followed by going back to wgeurts. Scum tends to be hyperaware of their partners' shady behaviour because they know each other to be scum. wgeurts going after Wisdom, that makes sense from his perspective since he knew himself to be town and he was half OMGUSing. But Newbie- there wasn't really much to be suspicious of Wisdom for at that stage. Wisdom did not respond to said case.

I hate this particular paragraph more than others

[Mathdino]

Well, it was a conclusion a fair number of people had made, so I'm sorry for being wrong on that. Do I need to say again that

wgeurts has rolefished under the guise of a newbtown persona before

? Check Stack The Deck, it just finished. That suspicion was not at all unfounded.

No, I'm voting because in that post there is some real scummy stuff. Just because Newbie voted me doesn't give im the right to be immune from me. The fact you're saying this shows a weak link woth Newbie, if he flips scum I'll be suspicious of you.

I just realised, you're mason fishing, aren't you? Interactive tells are very different in a mason game.

Yeah, this is enough for me to UNVOTE: Victor

VOTE: wgeurts

I brought up mason fishing because he kept talking about weak links. It looked like he was trying to get one of us to comment on said link.

A. My logic was just fine, thank you (until the meta argument on wgeurts), and
B. I am not scum for being wrong.

Edit: Yes, that's exactly what I did. Still not seeing the problem.
What are your thoughts on the Newbie case other than just thinking I'm scum?

[borkjerfkin]

wgeurts has rolefished under the guise of a newbtown persona before

and my point was that this isn't relevant unless you're willing to go on record saying that you can totes discern between someone looking for masons to out themselves and someone looking for scumbuddy interactions which is what he said he was doing

[Mathdino]

I'm not perfect. Is that what you want? Who would you have preferred I vote back then?

[borkjerfkin]

I'm not perfect. Is that what you want? Who would you have preferred I vote back then?

I have no idea what to say to this

[borkjerfkin]

geurts has rolefished under the guise of a newbtown persona before?

I'll humor this I suppose: show me.

[Newbie]

213 has Victor stating he likes "both the vote and point from Newbie in 124." Nothing standing out. Then here in 228 Newbie almost preempts her suspicion of wgeurts, saying that as town, she often jumps on extremely scummy players and they end up flipping town. Reads like preparation for possibly being wrong about wgeurts.

I was just being honest since it's legit why I did so badly on almost all of the forum mafia games I've played.

237, her Wisdom case. Now, let's be clear, Wisdom was not scummy D1. It was D2 where he stood out, but not early D1. See, Newbie was the first one to write up a case on Wisdom, stretching his actions a bit to look scummy, followed by going back to wgeurts. Scum tends to be hyperaware of their partners' shady behaviour because they know each other to be scum. wgeurts going after Wisdom, that makes sense from his perspective since he knew himself to be town and he was half OMGUSing. But Newbie- there wasn't really much to be suspicious of Wisdom for at that stage. Wisdom did not respond to said case.

How was it stretched out? He was literally skirting through the phase, throwing out fluff posts here and there. There was

no

scum hunting at all.

Then right after I asked Newbie what her thoughts were on Wisdom's wgeurts votepost, Newbie votes Wisdom here with the validation of wgeurts's case. Then in 313 she arbitrarily townreads Silver for agreeing with her, and states that a Silver/Wisdom pair is unlikely for no discernible reason. But 324 is what I had an issue with back then. Newbie goes out on a limb and states that if Wisdom flips town, she's probably going to be a top scum candidate. This shows awareness of other's perception of her, and the fact that she was willing to gamble that made me think she might've been bussing Wisdom. I actually forgot about that until I think acryon brought it up. Well, Wisdom flipped scum and Newbie got her towncred.

Once again, I was being blunt and honest. People would've most likely looked at me since I was pushing for him so hard.

341 shows a conversation between Wisdom and Newbie, where he repeats that one of {SilverWolf, Newbie} is scum, but that he's leaning toward SW. Newbie responds saying it can't be helped if multiple people find an action scummy. But here's the thing I don't like: Wisdom asks Newbie directly, " How do you think your and SW's votes look". He's asking her about how others would perceive her behaviour. This very strongly suggests coaching to me. Then in 389 she responds to my bussing accusation, along with echoing the statement that Silver/Wisdom aren't scum together with the statement that wgeurts is not bussing Wisdom. Doesn't state reasons for coming to this conclusion. Also I don't know about acryon, but I found her response to my thoughts on her/Wisdom rather scummy with the knowledge now that Wisdom is town.

I really don't know how to comment on this one since I don't why Wisdom even asked that or what he was getting at.

I believe I already commented on the fencesittiness of her reads lists, I'm not going to go back to that.

Like I've said already, that was done on purpose. It's the reason I put spaces between the scummy and non scummy actions.

Reaction to the Victor lynch: Here she states that she wants more from Victor, saying there's more time for that, but then states that Victor was probably willing to run up the time in 925.

Yep. It started to become pretty obvious that that's probably what he was doing.

[Mathdino]

No, I want you to answer me. If you were in my position back there, having just seen wgeurts done a crapton of scummy behaviours and then start pointing out 'weak links', what would you have done? You're the one that voted Wisdom for trying to draw associatives.

Spoiler: wgeurts rolefishing like hell

OMG

IF YOU'RE A VIG CLAIM

then we'll know if the second option actually happened. If you're a cog also say who you killed!

No, because if a vig killed droog it means the scum

had

to be roleblocked as the bodyguard didn't die. If the vig claims and calls his kill it'll confirm tex as scum.

You saying you're the vigilante?

You saying you're the vigilante?

No.

Why would you otherwise want to claim. Your post makes no sense.

This is after a claim was made that could be counterclaimed by several roles. If a vig existed, the claim would be nullified. Here wgeurts tries to demand a claim from the vig instead of just letting the vig shoot.

Can't we policy lynch random midget with the added bonus of him being possible scum more so than others?

Or we could lynch him because he's probably scum and not cry if he's town. Policy lynch D2 is a terrible idea.
If he doesn't get lynched today, it's probably because he became not-useless and thus a LyLo asset.

Yeah but if he's like now and he flips town honestly I won't cringe (Well, I will as yeah 2 dead town but you get the point). He's being useless and still isn't responding,

we need one more vote so we can demand a claim

. Which will give info.

Someone please L-1 him so we can demand a claim, he's useless as he is now but a claim could give good information.

Textcat you just blew up again and you're playing horribly different to your newbie game however it's ongoing so I can't discuss it. I'm seeing a possible newb try-harding and loosing his cool. It's that or you have more experience with mafia and you are generally playing town or scum. I must ask you however, to answer this:
Have you had any experience of mafia outside of MS?
If so, where and can you give links if possible?
I don't have enough info to meta you yet so in the mean while...
VOTE: RandomMidget
No way you recovered from hating on me and capsrage to being the damsel in distress. You too are a newb to mafia so this whole "I'm having trouble scum-hunting" seems like your changing your story without realising it. First it was you were lurking to not get lynched, then it was because you've got IRL problems and are having trouble scum-hunting. I fell for you flail but you recovered too quickly, in an almost faked manner. You have no excuse as town to not try and scum-hunt or not state your oppinions, you shouldn't care what others think you should just do something.

Claim.

Go ahead and claim

, also nobody hammer or I'll personaly force a lynch on you tommorow. Declare intent, I want this midget to squirm.

I elwas referring to PRs. And rown and Scum are already going to soft claim town. I've already pointed out the misreps please read my posts.

I'm not looking for role tells, I'm looking for who's not mafia.

I want you to claim however as if you are PR

to give you a chance to not get mis-lynched. It also allows for counter-claims ect. so it can help the town. It's normal to claim at L-1 I'm pretty sure.

I did it to Random Midget actually just to point that out. However I thought it's site meta to claim at L-1 this happened in all my newbie games for instance. I also wanted him to claim as to give himself a chance to save himself if he's a PR (hence I said don't hammer, we need as many PR's alive as possible.) and if he false claims as scum it could lead to a counter-claim. Basically I want to be sure we're hitting scum with the lynch,

Aronis refused to claim and look what happened. Claims as said before provide info and it's D2 and we really need to avoid a mis-lynch

. That's why I wanted him to claim.

His ISO if you ctrl+F 'claim' is just kind of lolworthy. And I townread him that game because I assumed he was being newbtown going by his meta.
Edit: responding in a sec

[borkjerfkin]

What are your thoughts on the Newbie case other than just thinking I'm scum?

That I hate posts that are made with the explicit purpose of itemizing a person's manifest of contributions and applying scum motivation to most of them because they are generally mired in confbias and as such hard to distinguish the alignment of the person writing them?

Like I've said to pretty much every other person in the game who has attempted to make one

[borkjerfkin]

No, I want you to answer me.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Mathdino]

So you mean
kinda like
your post on me?

I wrote a case on BMWS. There wasn't scum motivation behind his posts.
I looked at acryon's ISO. I didn't feel like writing anything because I was having issues seeing scum motivation, especially with the Wisdom push and backing off for more discussion D2. And his behaviour today has been insanely townish.
I looked at Newbie's ISO. I can see scum motivation.

There aren't many options here, bork. The post on Newbie was if anything to show how her play has been consistent with scum, because BMWS and acryon have been inconsistent with a scum play.

[borkjerfkin]

So you mean
kinda like
your post on me?

Nope. That one kinda grew organically. I hadn't expected to post much.

[Mathdino]

You went after me, bork, because the game doesn't make sense to you with acryon, Newbie, or BMWS is scum.
I understand that. I don't have an issue with that.

However you have to understand that that's the reasoning behind both of our suspicions; of the 3 remaining players, Newbie is the only one I can see being scum after everything that's happened, and that's only if I ignore the TTH interaction.

[borkjerfkin]

So not only is that wgeurts like actually unambiguously blatantly rolefishing (which he did not do here, at least at the point you voted him and even after that it was 'you're either masons or scum' and he had masons on the brain because you brought it up)

But all the stuff with wguerts happened early D1 of this game (Mid Oct.) and all the stack the deck stuff happened Nov. +, much less even getting into how you'd have known that wgeurts was scum in that game yet

As such, anything that happened in stack the deck could not have informed anything you did in this game.

So I kinda feel like you're just lying to me now

Gotta go, back tonight.

[Newbie]

Whoops, fell asleep while looking through acryon's ISO
I'm a bit busy ATM, but got through about 2/3 of it all. I'll just point out a few things right now, and try to make a larger post later.
556: IF he were scum, then it would be really weird for him to directly point out his two scumbuddies, especially at this point in the game. For me, this leans him null-town.
560: Says that scum-Wisdom leading the wgeurts lynch is highly unlikely. I semi-agreed with this at the time, though it obviosuly turned out to be incorrect. This brings him back to null.
1221: Thinks Wisdom is misguided town, Constantine is scum, but with valid reasons (and both ended up incorrect).
I'll try to post something more substantial later.

Responding to 1840:
I think you're arguing that I'm scum for sitting back with my posts, buddying up with both scum and some things that Wis & VDA said in reference to me.
1. I really think that that's a kind of personality thing for me, sitting back on things and not really making black and white opinions. I'm not exactly an "aggressive" guy.
For the second, I'm going to point to what you said about my 310 and 325: Was it wrong for me to comment on the

main topic

at the time? And VDA and Wisdom weren't the only people talking about those wagons, or on these wagons IIRC. Basically everyone in the game was discussing that. I don't see this as buddying.
3. Eh, can't really make any comment about this. They said what they said about me, but we can never completely know their intent.
I'll try to comment some more on acryon's posts later.

So bmws comes in, gives a read like this and then just dips, but my read on wisdom was scum motivated?

[Newbie]

Honestly, I don't know what to say then.

[Mathdino]

@Newbie:
1. Can't argue with your first point really.
2. Not sure if you know the definition of fluff- fluff is posting that's unrelated to the game. Wisdom was very much contributing to discussion back there. I think the main reason you saw that he wasn't scumhunting is because you knew he wasn't.
3. But it was the confidence that gets to me. Saying that you're liable to getting lynched if you're wrong is pretty unnecessary.
4. Yes, I know your reads list was done on purpose. That's why I didn't comment on it again; I just made a note there to say that I wasn't skipping over that in your ISO.

Edit:
@bork: Yes, you're right. I'm retroactively defending my logic as valid, because you seem so opposed to the idea that it's POSSIBLE he was rolefishing from our points of view back there. I was unaware of any of his meta when I voted him. However the fact that he made the Slayer Gambit means, again, he's capable of pretending to be newbtown and using it to his advantage.
Yeah, this pretty much amounts to 'I could've been right' but that's all I got when you're slamming me for making that vote which I thought was perfectly valid.

@Newbie: Nah, here's the thing. If he were scum, what he should be doing right now is making the argument that acryon is scum. Self defence, essentially. But he comes in, reads acryon's ISO, and... reads everything as null.
My response: What?
It's town because it holds true to his earlier play of trying to figure the game out, even when he might get lynched due to the lack of other suitable lynch candidates.

[Newbie]

Or he doesn't want to take a definite stance on anything at the moment because he knows that who he ends up being one of the last few players with is crucial.

But anything I say won't convince you anyway. Why aren't you even voting me if you think it's definitely me?

[Mathdino]

On the contrary; I find my read on BMWS to be strong enough that I won't be convinced to vote him. Knowing him, I don't think he'd fake the question about the TTH incident, and I think it'd be difficult for him to fake trying to figure out the game. I know his thought process. I've competed with him. This game is

exemplary

of said thought process.

However, a case on acryon might convince me, and I don't want to do anything until acryon and BMWS check back in.

[Mathdino]

Counterquestion, Newbie, what will convince you to not vote BMWS? 2nd: Suppose BMWS walks in here and self hammers and bork dies tonight. Who do you vote?

[Newbie]

Well, I want to hear from BMWS first and see where it goes from there. But at the moment, nothing. acryon is next on my lynch list, so he'd get my vote.

[blindmewithscience]

I'm phone posting now, will be home in around two hours. Will make larger post then. For now:
http://www.artofproblemsolving.com/Foru ... &start=120
Only other mafia game I've participated in. I replace in on page 7. Not that good of a game IMO.
Right now I'm trying to reevaluate my reads. Math has been reading town for me all game, but I'm going to go through his ISO from a neutral standpoint, and look at his interactions. Could be mafia hiding in plain sight. I'll do the same with Newvie later.