AWA wrote:So here's my long-awaited post. As it comprises the content of a week's worth of posts, it's going to be long. If you don't like that, get over it.
The format will be as follows: I will go down the list of players in the order they appear in the OP, and I will do a rough PBPA of each. I will analyze each player pseudo-chronologically, that is, if I analyze an earlier post, any later amendments excepting EBWOP's will not be regarded in my analysis. Actual analysis will look like this:
Post ###: Analysis goes here.
Also, I will only address the parts of each which I feel warrant attention; if you want me to address a specific part of a post which i have neglected, please tell me and I will be glad to do so.
I'll try to not include as much theory in this post as possible to keep it as clear as possible.
When I address different parts of the same post, I will separate them with slashes, like so: "Analysis A/Analysis B/Analysis C" etc.
Ok? Ok.
In the interests of fairness, I will
Unvote
before I analyze.
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I'm not even going to comment on this piece of trash.
Post #54: (We seem to have moved past the RVS discussion of the first few pages, so I'll give it little space here).
Post #105: I like the fact that rem is willing to unvote when there becomes no purpose for a vote.
Merlin has requested replacement. Besides this, no posts of interest, though it is important to remember that this role
does
still exist.
Post #86: I agree that for the most part, the RVS bickering was just noise./I also agree that, in general, I was focusing too much on the logical aspects of the game, and not so much the socio-psychological aspects. This is a flaw of mine; I will attempt to rectify it./I agree that AGar, in general, seems very haphazard with his attacks; they seem to be to be analagous to a person blindly attacking anyone who has a reasonable chance of becoming a target.
Post #115: I would like to reinforce the point of how AGar's attacks seem random until they latch on.
Post #132: My
Post #131 amends my point to couch against extremism.
Post #48: RVS and RBS are, in my opinion, extremely unproductive, and should last no longer than absolutely necessary to get discussion started./My views on bandwagons have already been expressed. I am suspicious of this particular bandwagon vote, as it was made extremely cavalierly and in ignorance of the rather large amount of activity above it.
Post #52: Every question that would be answered ina courtroom should be answered here, that is, suggestive, leading, or loaded questions are exempt. Purposefully avoiding "redundant" questions, in my opinion, throws suspicion on the avoider, as they could be answered easily and dismissed.
Post #73: I find it difficult to believe that suspecting three people, but not to the point of voteworthiness, is a scumtell. That you would place a vote simply for this reason smells of trying to start a wagon on a flimsy premise.
Post #80: Someone town-aligned would, I think, naturally be dispositioned to find suspicion in everyone else, you know, being part of the uninformed majority. One analytical post is worth any number of worthless posts. However, I will analyze screl later.
Post #82: The interesting thing I find about this post is the timestamp. The post came roughly one minute after TBM's vote; I feel like David was trying to scramble. I know the feeling, but it's still mildly suspicious.
Post #84: I completely agree; i will discuss TBM more in-depth later, but I dislike his emphasis on what he calls "conciseness" and his rather pronounced tunnel-vision.
Post #93: I feel like the entire Michel/AGar thing was simply noise, but from other points of discussion i am inclined to believe that AGar, not Michel, is slightly scummier. I disagree with the backpedalling claim./I agree that Copper seems slightly pro-town./I fail to see how it's scummy for me to use my vote in a context other than that of a serious vote. I would imagine that, psychologically, an attack punctuated by a vote would carry more weight than a simple attack.
Post #103: Having seen how quickly bandwagon votes can pile up, and not knowing how many scum there are, I can attest that L-5 isn't necessarily as safe as it would initially seem, especially with people constructing arguments against him behind which scum can hide and wagon.
Post #117: Pointless votehop to pressure Merlin; I'm curious if this might have been a thinly disguised attempt at a quicklynch wagon. Mildly suspicious as his vote is
still
on Merlin two (IRL) days later.
Post #33: The "scum lengthening Night 0" conjecture seems flimsy. I don't remember the breakdown of when everyone confirmed, so I can't check this, but it still seems quite unlikely, seeing as there are people who (essentially)
still
haven't responded.
Post #41: I want to bring as little of the old RVS argument into this as possible, but I want to laud Michel's defense of reasoning.
Post #45: Michel is so far doing admirably in deflecting AGar's rather ad hominem attacks.
Post #47: I'm not happy with the "I make up scumtells" bit of this post, but it would certainly explain the logical underpinnings behind random voting. I'm willing to dismiss it.
Post #60: I am slightly suspicious of your 3 scum claim, though with 11 players 3 scum is logical.
Post #77: I completely disagree with your TBM read, as I will explain later on./I'm a bit confused by the language you used to address me. Can you please clarify?
Post #91: The only thing I have to say to this post is WIFOM. I understand the inherent fallacy in this, but there it is.
Post #116: I'm much less suspicious of this vote on Merlin than David's because it was made first, and was backed up with sound reasoning (though it was slightly non sequitur).
Post #125: I think you confuse the terms "game relevant" and "game related". Some of the posts to which you refer are related, but not relevant, to the discussion at hand, and thus you confuse them for usefulness.
Post #134: Again, I am appreciative of the ability to unvote when the vote becomes unfounded./As I will later outline, I believe that TBM's "game relevant" content is actually simply "game related" content, and therefore worthless taken at face value.
Post #75: I feel that yes, some of David and screl's interations might be construed as scummy. At the same time, when you feel strongly enough about them to vote, it is up to YOU to provide the argument, and not everyone else. The burden of proof is on the voter, not the voted, and certainly not the people to whom the voter is trying to convince.
Post #56: I'm not particularly impressed with your FOS'ing everywhere, though I understand it; in this game, everybody is intially perceived as more guilty than innocent. At the same time, no one is either until proven so./Yes, I am worried about votes. Perhaps this is a gameplay flaw of mine, but I feel that a vote is an extremely powerful tool, and should be used as a tool, not as a cudgel. When I saw AGar throwing cotes around like candy, I naturally got worried about his free usage of this most powerful tool. I was "quiet for a while" because I did not get the chance to check mafiascum.net for the remainder of the day; check the timestamps before making time-related posts. While I did target AGar, I did not target Michel. I question the validity of this FOS, especially as the reasoning is "There is nothing concrete here". When why FOS?/I don't understand the FOS on Michel, either. What I got from this "analysis" is that he confused you, so he's suspicious. I'm not buying it./TBM garners the most questions, yet does not receive an FOS. Interesting./This is your only slightly valid FOS, and even then I thihnk it's flimsy. yes, AGar's been unwieldy with his attacks, but you construct your "argument" based on his clout.
Post #69: I refuse to allow you to force anything, be it alcohol, a movie, or whatever, take responsibility for your actions. This isn't a scumtell
yet
, but it's definitely worth keeping an eye on.
Post #99: I'm quite amused at this post; first you claim that David's vote was the only OMGUS vote (not strictly true if you count RVS), and then you OMGUS. The only good part of this post is that you defend the right to post whenever one pleases. Still, there is a lot of emotion in this post, and I feel that this fact, combined with the OMGUS vote, is a mild scumtell. On the other hand, screl is ostensibly a newbie.
Post #106: Here you seem a bit too intent on building a case on Michel, apparently due to the earlier theory discussion. Not sure what to make of this, but I think that you're making a mountain out of a molehill. Your intent behind this is anyone's guess; mine is that you're trying to shrug attention off of yourself and onto Michel.
Post #107: Don't get too used to the "new to Mafia" argument. It won't hold water for long.
Post #113: An OMGUS vote is inherently
not
random, but has a rather unconvincing reason.
Hasn't posted much (if anything).
Hasn't posted anything of interest (yet). I look forward to their wallpost.
Post #26: See
Post #29 for my views on this post.
Post #40: No reasoning, no logic, just presupposed self-evidence. Nothing in this game is self-evident. The almost brutal terseness of this post screams scum at me.
Post #43: See
Post #50 for my views on this post.
Post #61: A) No, but they are extremely inefficient and decidedly anti-town, as they promote mob mentality. B) You voted me with no reasoning at all. You have yet to provide any such reasoning. C) There is an ostensible contradiction there, yes, but the answer is simple: Answer the question satisfactorily, we collectively move on. Ignore it or deflect it, and we get suspicious. D) Irrelevant. E) Elaborate? Oh right, "conciseness is protown".
Post #66: See
Post 127 for my views on this matter.
Post #81: Tunneling + promotion of mob mentality. Anti-town at best.
Post #85: Arrogance is anti-town; if you are a protown alignment, it estranges the town, and if you are an anti-town alignment, it makes people resentful.
Post #124: See
Post 127 for my views on this matter.
Post #22: OMGUS is not a scumtell. I'm tired of people claiming that it is. Yes, sometimes scum will use it as an excuse. It still is an extremely unreliable "tell", unreliable enough to discount it as a reasonable premise for lynching.
Post #31: Your mastery of leading questions is admirable. Stop using them; they're misleading and anti-town.
Post #37: Your defense of bandwagons is flawed for the reason that it come from the perspective of a person who is dead-set on only seeing the perceived positives of the activity (bandwagoning), and to hell with the negative. By this logic, we should push someone to L-1 to "lead to a telling scumslip", while in the meantime a scum can hammer under the pretense of simply "joining the wagon" and forgetting that it was L-1. I counterclaim that
your
view on bandwagons is flawed and distorted, and I might take it so far as to call this a slip./Ad hominem, ad hominem, ad hominem. Enough with the fallacious play, and try to hunt scum instead of falsely asserting yourself as hunting.
Post #44: [1] Enough with the ad hominem. [2] No, they shouldn't; the point is that they
can
, and that's what Michel was worried about. [3] IIRC, your "reasoning" for voting David was that, essentially, you felt like it. You retroactivtely justified it when he OMGUS'd. Don't claim to have sound "reasoning" when this is clearly not the case. [4] You seem to think that reasoning cannot be employed in the early stages of the game. RVS is not the only way to begin discussion; when someone attempts to use reasoning, flawed or not,
that
is a discussion point./You're awful liberal with your vote. I'm inclined to think that you're a bit too eager to get suspicion off of yourself by accusing others first.
Post #46: [1] Hyprocrisy. You did the exact same thing with David. [2] While I agree with your argument, I (still) disagree with your attitude. Enough with the personal attacks, and stop clouding the waters of discussion with emotion.
Post #49: Your supposed "reasoning" toward the end of this post is not grounds for "believing [Michel] to be scum." You correctly point out inaccuracies in his own logic, and that's all. Additionally, the little "QED" at the end is unnecessary and counterproductive, as it psychologically denies a strong rebuttal.
Post #55: I rather think that, instead of your random votes/questions, it is your inflammatory language that draws reactions. It certainly did here./Let's take a second here to actually analyze the Chainsaw Defense. The key to the defense is that the player utilizing the defense is, well,
defending
another player. I was not defending Michel; I was attacking you, and it so happened that you were, at the time, attacking Michel. By your logic, any person who attacks someone who isn't directly attacking them is using the Chainsaw Defense. I think not.
Post #63: Thus far, you have pointed fingers at no less than four people. Does this mean that you want all of these people lynched? It is a poor moderator who chooses that many scum in a 12 person setup. This indicates, to me, that you are willing to kill as long as the scum (or rather, the people you personally believe are scum) get killed as well. I don't like this./Please elaborate on why you feel my hesitation on bandwagons is scummy. You never answered my question in
Post #38: "[why is] my caution in rushing into a potential mislynch (which, by definition, is accidentally lynching a pro-town) scummy?"
Post #65: More ad hominem. I'm beginning to think that your "playstyle" is of the "attack attack attack and if I don't have a sound argument attack the person" variety. I have seen very little reasoning out of you thus far (though, admittedly, what I have seen is mostly accurate).
Post #78: THIS is finally a good post! Legitimate scumhunting with very little to no emotion involved. I agree with this analysis of the interaction between David and screl, though outside of this specific instance, I have not seen much more interaction between them.
Post #94: Screl's post came in the middle of your battle with Michel, yes; a battle which occurred in the span of one IRL day, during which it is entire plausible that screl could only get on once. That said, screl hadn't exactly been inactive between the analysis post to which you refer and this one.
Post #100: You yourself have pointed fingers at no less than four people. For the sake of argument, let's suppose that all four were scum. If all four wagoned onto screl (which, as stated before, you would have no problem with), he would be at L-1 *snap* like that. Implausible, yes. But not impossible. Particularly as a new player, though I hesitate to bring this into the discussion, he would be more jumpy than others when a case, and a flimsy, ad hominem one at that, was being built against him.
Post #110: "When I think someone is scum, I pressure them until they break." This has never occurred to you to be a poor way to play? It completely rules out the possibility that you might be
wrong
, and it lets real scum wagon on your attack.
Post #118; 1) FOS, to
me
, is simply a way of indicating that you are mildly suspicious of a person, but not the point of voting. Fence-sitting, to me, is having no strong opinions either way, and thus not warranting an FOS./I didn't notice David's voting habits; this was an excellent observation. Still, correlation does not imply causation, but it's something to keep an eye on.
Post #130: See
Post #131 for my response to this. I only include this because Copper seems to have ignored it, and I wanted to make sure people read it.
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Conclusions:
AWA- Me.
remussaidow- Not much to get a read on. His willingness to unvote is laudable. Mildly protown, but keep in mind that there's not much to go on here.
Merlin- Nothing. No posts of interest.
Copper- Not much of a read. Very few posts on interest, though
Post #86 was good. Still, no read.
DavidParker- Slight scum read. I don't particularly like how he overreacts to provocation, though as I outlined above, it's understandable. A lot of his posts were directly catalyzed by AGar's attacks, however.
FOS: DavidParker
MichelSableheart- Much of his posts were lacking in relevance, but the ones that weren't seemed to give me a very slight scum vibe. I'm not happy with his buddying up with TBM, however, and as I find TBM the scummiest player so far, this naturally throws suspicion on Michel. Not enough to FOS, but
IGMEOY
.
My Milked Eek- Little to go on. No read.
screl1- A lot of his reactions can be chalked up to newbishness, but I want to stay away from that. That said, his reactions, when viewed objectively, are fairly natural. Not willing to say protown, however.
Oso- Nothing.
Equinox- Nothing of interest.
TheButtonmen- Currently my candidate for the scummiest player in the game. I believe that his terse attitude, combined with his blunt posts can be called a scumtell. He has provide zero reasoning behind any of his actions thus far in the game, and is promoting mob mentality and therefore directly anti-town.
Vote: TheButtonmen
AGar- Not a fan of his penchant for ad hominem and insults. They frankly muddy the posts of relevance by steeping them in emotion, which in turn allows players to interpret facts differently when there should be a single truth for a given fact. The feeling I get is that you are trying to throw suspicion off of yourself by suspecting others first, and then when they suspect you in turn, it is a "scumtell". Not buying it.
FOS: AGar
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Hopefully this makes up for my V/LA; sorry again for the inactivity.