Capcom Crossover Chaos - GAME OVER~

ZZZX · Post Post #175 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:06 pm

Read to page four so far btw

BROseidon · Post Post #176 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:06 pm

In post 121, Untrod Tripod wrote:SOMEONE is dumb enough to target me tonight. We do NOT need to introduce a cult to the game

Back to the "there's probably other cult floating around somewhere in this game if you aren't trolling us" point.

BROseidon · Post Post #177 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:08 pm

In post 132, The Will of Heaven wrote:Is there still anyone who believes
Skitty is town
or are we done here?

...

ZZZX · Post Post #178 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:08 pm

I am 67% sure that ut is scum at this point .

Also @ut if you were scum then I would say that was a good gambit. I remember doing something similar before.

ZZZX · Post Post #179 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:09 pm

In post 177, BROseidon wrote:
In post 132, The Will of Heaven wrote:Is there still anyone who believes
Skitty is town
or are we done here?

...

Well skitty DID claim a non town role anyway

BROseidon · Post Post #180 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:10 pm

Gonna do some maths.

The Will of Heaven · Post Post #181 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:16 pm

In post 144, Skitty wrote:Say by some miracle I'm actually a survivor

wat
So you're not actually one then?

Bulbazak · Post Post #182 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:17 pm

In post 164, BROseidon wrote:
In post 68, Bulbazak wrote:@Wisdom: He could be telling the truth, which is why we should lynch it and not leave the possibility of a cult open.

Wait.

If UT's role is actually in the game, you DON'T think there's a possibility of a cult?

I said that I'd rather eliminate UT so that we don't have to deal with a cult. No clue if there would be another cult in the game.

In post 173, Skitty wrote:Oh btw I'm changing my claim up more

I'm in a hood

The Will of Heaven · Post Post #183 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:19 pm

Vigging UT is prolly ok. Lynching him isn't.

BROseidon · Post Post #184 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:20 pm

I'm thinking that there's a 60% chance UT is telling the truth, 35% chance he's a jester, and 5% chance he's scum.

By those odds, Dayvig strictly dominates a lynch, which has a higher EV than not lynching if we assume jester is non win-stealing. If it's win-stealing, not lynching is stronger.

I'll deal with sorting the details of that if/when it becomes clear we don't have a dayvig.

Regarding the survivors, I'm fine leaving them around for now. Vig should go and clean them up, though; no reason to potentially hit a town PR when NS has basically said that he's going to do nothing and just sheep the largest wagon all game.

Early town reads on Bulba and Heaven slot. I agree with Bulba that AA9 is sketch, but AA9 is also always bad like that, so I'll hold off there.

Skitty · Post Post #185 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:21 pm

I am speaking in terms of what you said

BROseidon · Post Post #186 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:21 pm

In post 182, Bulbazak wrote:I said that I'd rather eliminate UT so that we don't have to deal with a cult. No clue if there would be another cult in the game.

Hint: it's the same cult. UT randomly creating a cult with no other way to recruit makes a lot less sense than there being a cult that can recruit (probably less frequently than normal) that UT can add to.

The Will of Heaven · Post Post #187 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:22 pm

Those numbers look like you just made them up

Why is bulba town?

ZZZX · Post Post #188 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:25 pm

Ut is more prob scum using the fact that you will not lynch him because of the wifom factor...

BROseidon · Post Post #189 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:26 pm

Numbers are assumptions I got from gut. Mafia's a game of numbers at heart, it's just a matter of understanding them and being able to quantify them externally.

I like that bulba pulled off of AA9; it shows that he's not necessarily gunning for a lynch for the sake of a lynch. I also like how his early focus was everywhere; it indicates that he doesn't really have an agenda and is trying to be responsive to what he's seeing in the thread (rather than having an agenda and twisting it to what he wants to make happen)

The Will of Heaven · Post Post #190 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:27 pm

Isn't that risky though? He can't really expect to live much with that claim.

pedit: @zzzx

ZZZX · Post Post #191 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:27 pm

Why am I freaking ignored?

P-edit: I know I did it once and it worked (as another claim but it works the same way)

ZZZX · Post Post #192 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:28 pm

You see the thing is if he survives day 1 he survives all game long

The Will of Heaven · Post Post #193 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:29 pm

His aa push felt like a bunch of bullshit to me, aa did nothing scummy

Bulbazak · Post Post #194 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:29 pm

Agree to disagree.

The Will of Heaven · Post Post #195 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:29 pm

In post 192, ZZZX wrote:You see the thing is if he survives day 1 he survives all game long

I don't think so

ZZZX · Post Post #196 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:30 pm

In post 195, The Will of Heaven wrote:
In post 192, ZZZX wrote:You see the thing is if he survives day 1 he survives all game long

I don't think so

None will target him.

People prefer lynching scum. And after letting him go day 1 interest in him becomes lower.

Why would you lynch him later on?

ZZZX · Post Post #197 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:31 pm

Anyway lynching him now regardless of his allignment is the best step. I didn't look at the jester option in depth thou

ZZZX · Post Post #198 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:33 pm

Anyway I'm sleeping now

The Will of Heaven · Post Post #199 (ISO) » Fri Dec 12, 2014 12:35 pm

In post 121, Untrod Tripod wrote:What the fuck are you dumbasses even arguing about. Fucking lynch me

SOMEONE is dumb enough to target me tonight. We do NOT need to introduce a cult to the game

What I dislike is that he's making no attempts to scumhunt. It's acceptable not to want to lynch others, not trying to find scum before he gets lynched isn't.

But that just further proves that all he cares about is being lynched, because he gains some kind of benefit from it (or just wins)