Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Heartless]

'mkay so going back to tth's town block from a while ago.......

Right now, I'm working from townreads on: davesaz, eyestott, dodgy, BlueBloodedToffee, Tean Samargo, and Wickedestjr for varying reasons.

dave's kind of been fading into the background as of late. after his wagon died down. (yikes)

i think tth's point about eyestott+dodgy and reading around the argument is valid. plus i think dodgy's been decently town lately. sticking w/ those reads.

yeah, agree w/ the bbt read too.

i'm looking over tean right now and...... their stuff isn't really as good as i remember it being. i thought the start was ok but now they're just kind of floating around (i see something about how they think dodgy vs eyes is tvs, but then the votes on..........dave,? that read seems stale and hasn't been revisited recently. what's up with that?) they're not really....going anywhere or getting much done despite the fact they've posted a couple walls recently batting down wicked's attack and talking about eyesvdodge (relatively held back though)

wicked's also p town.

[copper223]

I am not suggesting that you asking for a claim was scummy. I was referring to the comment that eyestott claimed before intent to hammer was declared. I think by copper.

Who is this addressed to?

[Heartless]

either ending up on a random guy that is easy to push like vettrock

you think vettrock has gotten too much scrutiny?
i don't think he's under enough considering his play

from what i'm remembering, the only ppl entertaining the idea of lynching him are me, mastin, and dodgy. and bbt is the only other person who's even bothered to ask him why his reads are the way they are. everyone else seems perfectly content to whistle a tune and look the other way.

[copper223]

@Heartless
I also asked Vettrock to post.

Not much to go on, his readlist, while not very informative, also failed to pursue any of the agendas scum would have been on at the time.
- Town reading Eyes.
- Town reading me.
- Town reading Aneninen but scumreading Dave.

so he is either:
- of the too cautious to be very useful to his team scum variety and just sitting there without interacting with them
- maybe scum with Eyes
- weak D1 town

if I had to guess it's more likely he is town. Why is he more attention worthy than say Beast?

[Heartless]

not in the same league as beast. beast has graduated to full blown lurker. vettrock is still posting, but choosing to post about trivial stuff like asking me what i was teasing tth about on page 2 and posting unsubstantiated reads and later waving them off as "oh i'm just not good at day 1" or "poe" (/fart).


with beast, he's just not even here or putting in any effort whatsoever. with vettrock, there's clearly an energy expenditure here, but it's not clear towards what. whatever it is, it's not refining the reads in a meaningful way, and that's what town does.

[copper223]

Fair enough, to me it's more likely it has to do with Vettrock not being a D1 player rather than being scum but I like that read.

[davesaz]

I waited to see if there was going to be a shift after I softed to Mastin and she tried to move it off of me, but since there wasn't and I agree that deadline lynches are bad for town this became the next best play, I would not have claimed any other power role but if we are going to use mine we might as well get the most out of it.

I also am still unsure if Mastin is town for it or she was happy killing me off during the night so I wanted to share this, personally I am leaning town.

I can't find this soft you claim to have wafted in Mastin's direction.
In the meantime, vengeful is just about the best scum fake claim there is.
VOTE: copper223

[Wickedestjr]

*catching up

again

tonight* /prod dodge

[Heartless]

I waited to see if there was going to be a shift after I softed to Mastin and she tried to move it off of me, but since there wasn't and I agree that deadline lynches are bad for town this became the next best play, I would not have claimed any other power role but if we are going to use mine we might as well get the most out of it.

I also am still unsure if Mastin is town for it or she was happy killing me off during the night so I wanted to share this, personally I am leaning town.

I can't find this soft you claim to have wafted in Mastin's direction.
In the meantime, vengeful is just about the best scum fake claim there is.
VOTE: copper223

anything to add other than glomming onto what i already said?

you should...like... post reads

[copper223]

@Dave

@Mastin
Vote me for that reason and

I'll asume you are scum

, I don't think I'm the kind of player you want to write off out of apathy in case I am town and I think you in particular have a good

shot

at deciding whether I am town or scum here so put some effort into it and decide.

Gun

to head?

Town.

Explain why you think vengeful is the best fake claim.

[Heartless]

...so mastin was crumbing for you...?

idgi

[copper223]

Mastin likely understood what I was implying, that was another reason I decided to claim.

[Heartless]

lol mastin says that phrase all the time

[Heartless]

the dave read is so stale and that last post was so horrible
UNVOTE:

if copper is town he it's definitely better to have him alive than dead. the vig shot's not worth it.

[Heartless]

this game is in dire need

of some TTH

[davesaz]

Seriously, what the hell?

We've had wagons on myself, eyestott, and copper. All 3 of us claimed, and according to the claims we're all town.
If there is a fake claim, vengeful would be it. Even if there is also a vig, it would be KK and thus a counter is meaningless. At least with II, the 2nd tracker is one-shot and confirms the existence of a full.

Assuming the 3 wagons are all on town, the town doesn't just need me to give some reads, or TTH's attention, it needs

all

the town to

wake up

!

[Heartless]

VOTE: dave

[davesaz]

I'll be honest, my approach has been somewhat lazy. I got seriously pissed off by the early wagon, and really demoralized by a bunch of scummy stuff being ignored by the same people who were sheeping Mastin on the so-called "newbscum tells" that have not really been explained. Mea culpa.

Unfortunately, this game is really lacking in strong analysis. Too much taking the easy route by too many people. Not saying it's all bad, but the noise ratio is much higher than optimum.

Peak wagons, at the point of vote counts.
I did not look if the wagons got more/different votes between VC. The point of this is to get an idea of where to look, since re-reading the whole thread and analyzing 10 players would take quite a lot of time. Looking at the copper wagon after the VC was easy and obvious, so I did track it down to the actual max point.

davesaz (5) - Mastin2, Wickedestjr, Tean Samargo, eyestott, copper223

eyestott (5) - dodgy56, BlueBloodedToffee, davesaz, Mastin2, killapenwin

copper223 (4) - BlueBloodedToffee, killapenwin, Heartless, davesaz

Umm, copper only had 3 (or less) votes at time of claim. After I get castigated for claiming VT at L-2?

Really??

On 2 wagons:
Mastin2
BBT
killapenwin


Not on any of the wagons
Vettrock
Aneninen
beastcharizard

Suppose all of these wagons are exclusively town driven. While I can't say why scum would not have been on any of the wagons, a scum team of Vettrock, Aneninen, and beastcharizard is pretty damn appealing. Vettrock has been very noncommital the whole D1 but waves it off as being a bad D1 player. beastcharizard is active lurking and I remember seeing comments that producing content is his scum meta. But meta can be manipulated. And Aneninen has had all those catchup walls.

Let's say that one scum is in the group not on any wagons, and one is in the group who have been on two wagons. Even that narrows down a re-read to just 6 players.

Can I get a little help here? We need to pick someone if we're going to squeeze in a lynch before deadline.

[davesaz]

VOTE: dave

Nice demonstration of sticking your head in your ass. Please remove it.

[beastcharizard]

When have I ever successfully manipulated my meta? Also, this type of game is solely my town style of game as it makes me a huge target for a lynch or Vig kill.

[copper223]

@Dave
Are you seriously presenting the idea that every wagon that ended with a claim today was on a town and every player on it was town as well, so the people left over are mafia? I'd say that is almost as likely as you getting hit by a meteorite in the next 15 seconds.

[Heartless]

Seriously, what the hell?

We've had wagons on myself, eyestott, and copper. All 3 of us claimed, and according to the claims we're all town.
If there is a fake claim, vengeful would be it. Even if there is also a vig, it would be KK and thus a counter is meaningless. At least with II, the 2nd tracker is one-shot and confirms the existence of a full.

Assuming the 3 wagons are all on town, the town doesn't just need me to give some reads, or TTH's attention, it needs

all

the town to

wake up

!

there's a 1% chance there's 2 k's. if there's a vig, the obvious optimal strategy would be to stay quiet and shoot copper.

vengeful is not the best fakeclaim

[Heartless]

On 2 wagons:
Mastin2
BBT
killapenwin


Not on any of the wagons
Vettrock
Aneninen
beastcharizard

i think tean is scummier than most of these names. your approach isn't "lazy" it's "arbitrary and random"

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I can't believe we only have 8 VC's in a 34 page D1. That's ludicrous and makes it exceptionally difficult to analyse wagons/voting patterns.

[davesaz]

@Dave
Are you seriously presenting the idea that every wagon that ended with a claim today was on a town and every player on it was town as well, so the people left over are mafia? I'd say that is almost as likely as you getting hit by a meteorite in the next 15 seconds.

What's with all the emphasis on statistics?

Did you read the

whole

post? And understand it?

If we accept all 3 claims (I guarantee mine is true and I assume you'd do the same for yours) there are 10 candidates for scum left.
I know for a fact that I won't have time to thoroughly investigate and analyze all 10 players, early enough to rally a lynch.

The scum team being within the 3 non-voters is one theory.
The scum team being within one of the 3 non-voters and one of the 2-voters is another theory.

I ended the post with saying there are 6 to investigate (3 non-voters and 3 2-voters). 6 is less than 10, last time I checked.

Could it still be wrong and all the scum are in the 1-voters? Sure, that's obviously possible.