Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

[Heartless]

why the massclaim was a terrible idea.

right... narrowing the lynchpool to 95% odds TERRIBLE IDEA

:EYEROLL:

[Heartless]

you dropped anen from your scumlist for the sake of exaggerating your argument, which boils down to "there's scum on a mislynch wagon"

it's scummy

[Heartless]

ah so you did
my bad

[Heartless]

/shrug

you still just greened in whatever you claimed and made 3 names on the dave wagon red and said LOOK AT THIS NARRATIVE THAT TOTALLY COULD MAKE SENSE BUT DOESN'T HAVE ANY EVIDENCE

you start w/ the premise that you're telling the truth, which......

i don't believe

[Heartless]

[beast, bbt, tean] other one is in the blind spot [mastin/wicked/anen]
^^^

i seriously hope it isn't mastin b/c tth is going to kill me...

[Heartless]

no, it's because i have a bullshit meter that works p well

[Heartless]

have you just completely given up on reading or what?

[Heartless]

even though it's based on multiple false premises?

yeah, ok

[Heartless]

even though it's based on multiple false premises?

yeah, ok

You are just saying I am wrong. That is all you are doing. Nothing more nothing less. Just saying: "Nope, you are wrong." Can you say something else?

He's saying much more, but hey we can't let facts get in the way of a good story now can we?

There are quite a few things that make copper's claim a lot more believable than BBT's: the role claimed, the timing of the claim, and the behavior of the wagons during massclaim.

Spoiler:

scum don't claim vengeful. they don't claim supersaint.
how you deal with the claim: you leave them around until lylo then policy lynch them if they're still there. that's what defeats a scum fakeclaim of vengeful.
when scum claim things, they claim things that will DETER their lynch. like investigatives or protectives (or a sorrowful VT claim that tugs at the heartstrings). they want to make town feel like they're taking a gamble in lynching them. a vengeful or supersaint claim won't create the same effect.

I remember this quote from another game and it's why I'm a lot more inclined to believe the vengeful claim than the hider claim. Hider is an

extremely

powerful role and it's a lot more of a lynch deterrent than vengeful is, not to mention that hider is impossible to obtain bulletproof confirmation for in this setup in the absence of a role cop. A quick look at how the vote count is shaping up will also tell us quite a bit about copper:

BlueBloodedToffee (1) - Heartless
Heartless (1) - beastcharizard
copper223 (5) - mastin2, vettrock, Wickedestjr, BlueBloodedToffee, Aneninen
beastcharizard (1) - killapenwin

Not Voting: Tean Samargo, copper223

From this, I think it's very likely copper isn't mafia. Since neither BBT nor vettrock's claims are watertight, I would have to think copper's teammates would be making their move on BBT or vettrock. With all the plausible deniability at play, there's no strategic reason to bus. An SK especially would seem to deter bussing as well. I can't imagine copper would make this kind of play as SK either. Locking himself into a claim unnecessarily on Day 1 is sub-optimal play and goes against the kind of strategic mindset I know copper has.

I think Anti's latest theory is good. Beast is just repeating some drivel about meta while holding a nonsensical theory about both BBT and copper being scum. He also has yet to follow through on this supposed elaborate gambit from Day 1. And yes, Anti, I will kill you if mastin is scum. I think there's a good chance she is and I think she's telling you what you want to hear because she's afraid of you.

[Heartless]

Oh, alright. For a second there I though you were changing your story again... wait a minute.

Tell me, did we kill eyestott or dodgy?

[Heartless]

For vettrock, there's the reaction to eyestott's claim that you've already quoted. For vettrock to be scum, he had to have planned this fake claim after seeing eyestott's. The plan would've had to involve being cryptic and mysterious about it to start off, but specific

enough

to lock him into the specific one-shot tracker claim. I suppose it's not impossible, but it's really far stretch and the odds are a lot better that he's town given the way he went about the claim. There's also the fact that the people behind the vettrock push to start Day 2 are shady characters; BBT and mastin come to mind.

I think the chances of vettrock being scum are very low.

[Heartless]

BlueBloodedToffee (1) - Heartless
Heartless (1) - beastcharizard
copper223 (5) - mastin2, vettrock, Wickedestjr, BlueBloodedToffee, Aneninen
beastcharizard (1) - killapenwin

Not Voting: Tean Samargo, copper223

how's this VCA for you, bbt?

OMG DAVEZ WAZ SO SCUMZ GUYS

BUT THIS UNOPPOSED COPPER WAGON
IS SO ABSURDLY BEAUTIFUL

[Heartless]

davesaz (7) - Tean Samargo,

Mastin2

, Heartless, beastcharizard,

Wickedestjr

,

vettrock

, copper223
copper223 (5) -

mastin2

,

vettrock

,

Wickedestjr

, BlueBloodedToffee, Aneninen

3/5 more than half the copper wagon was on dave, AND if beast hammers (he's been calling copper scum), that'll make 4

IT'S THE SAME FUCKING PEOPLE

so, i'm sorry bbt, how is it that it's

OMG SO SCUMZORZ

about the dave wagon but

OH SO TOWNIE

about the copper one given the shit distribution and lack of a counterwagon

[Heartless]

Oh, alright. For a second there I though you were changing your story again... wait a minute.

Tell me, did we kill eyestott or dodgy?

I have called you scum this whole time.

Also, I don't know you tell me.

OH FUCK NO YOU HAVEN'T YOU SHEEPED US ONTO THE DAVE WAGON YOU LIAR

[Heartless]

Also, I don't know you tell me.

as sk we shot at ppl we scum read.

we scum read neither eyestott nor dodgy.

[Heartless]

Full claims.

[Heartless]

(I know that it wasn't me you fought with but I think it was me who "started the fire".)

It's not your fault, hon. Don't beat yourself up over it.

[Heartless]

:\

[Heartless]

ok, setup

7 letters, there's almost certainly an sk here so probably odd number of t's

flips: tracker, jk
claims: 1-shot tracker, hider, vengeful

flips: IPXXXXX
claims: IIPHKXX

not a lot of t's in the claimed scenario

someone better than me at math, what's the probability of 2 or fewer t's?

Updated:

Flips: Tracker, Jailkeeper
Claims: 1-shot tracker, Hider, Vengeful, Vigilante

Flips: IPXXXXX
Claims: IIPHKKT

Well it seems we have a slight problem here.

VOTE: Titus

[Heartless]

Can someone explain to me what Titus' claim means for set-up spec?

There's a few problems:

*

With the claimed setup, there should be three kills at play.

*

Optimal play for Tean night 1 as a vigilante would have been to shoot copper, as already discussed.

*

The number of claimed T's has an approximately 5% chance of occurring.

The "missing" kill on Night 1 could be explained by overlapping kills or a failed kill, but the other probabilistic evidence is stacked against that.

[Heartless]

Hold on, I just saw something. UNVOTE:

[Heartless]

Oh, I'm stupid.

Titus is clear.

[Heartless]

is she...?

no, i think you had it right tth
._.

[Heartless]

Claims: IIPHKKT

ok

well, first off:


there's fake pr claims

...

damn, now

i'm

fucking my own mind w/ math

[Heartless]

How is Titus clear?

It's due to the number of T's. An even number of T's translates to a single scum faction. An odd number of T's translates to two scum "factions", in which we would see three kills per night assuming Titus is telling the truth.

At first I thought, "If Titus was a faker, that would mean there are an even number of T's, which produces a paradox. There are no SKs at two T's and the mafia can't just pull two kills out of their ass. Therefore Titus must be town." Then I remembered that there were a bunch of other claims at play. :S

This will take some time to parse.

[Heartless]

Flips: Tracker, Jailkeeper
Claims: 1-shot tracker, Hider, Vengeful, Vigilante

flips
dave: vt
eyestott: tracker
dodgy: jailkeeper

claims
vettrock: 1-shot tracker
bbt: hider
copper's slot: vengeful
titus: vig
beast: vt
mastin: vt
heartless: vt
anen: vt
wicked: vt
killa: vt

[Heartless]

A haiku with love:

I don't like penguins.
Go back to Antarctica.

Vote: killapenwin

The poem spells out Vig if you rearrange the letters.

vig crumb makes sense from an sk

doesn't do much for me

[Heartless]

So who did Dodgy jail?

if i had to guess, probably copper. dodgy thought that copper would be prime target for a scum kill and copper doesn't have an action to roleblock. ideal jailkeep.

[Heartless]

I'm starting with Titus because that's the role claim with evidence for it (the claimed dodgy kill).

The claimed specials are: vettrock, BBT, copper, and Titus.

If there's actually an even number of T's, Titus is confirmed town. In that scenario, one of the other special claims OR all three of the other special claims are lying. An odd number of T's would indicate that Titus may or may not be lying; there's the possibility of failed kills.

[Heartless]

Who is Cooper scumreading? Whatever it is, it's likely wrong.

This thought occurred to me to, but this is kind of a special case where the lynch pool is substantially narrowed. Because of the vanishingly small probability of all the special claims telling the truth, one of vettrock, BBT, and/or copper are practically confirmed scum. It wouldn't be a stretch for scum-BBT to want to squeeze in a mislynch on town-copper before he goes.

[Heartless]

Actually, Titus should

not

be today's lynch. If she's lying, it will become obvious as the other special claims start flipping. If she's really mafia fakeclaiming an extra kill, it's a foolish move and she'll probably be dealt with by someone who really does have a kill.

Who is Cooper scumreading? Whatever it is, it's likely wrong.

This thought occurred to me to, but this is kind of a special case where the lynch pool is substantially narrowed. Because of the vanishingly small probability of all the special claims telling the truth, one of vettrock, BBT, and/or copper are practically confirmed scum. It wouldn't be a stretch for scum-BBT to want to squeeze in a mislynch on town-copper before he goes.

Not if Cooper was going to shoot scum.

By all indications, copper was intending to shoot BBT.

[Heartless]

So why would BBT, as scum, want to lynch Cooper if his goal is to live?

Now that the massclaim has occurred, his days are numbered anyway if he's scum. Taking down town with him would be optimal scum play.

Also, if you look at the recent posting, BBT's made some moves to try to pull out of the 1v1.

See especially

the last post I spoiler below:

Spoiler:

He's speaking to me Anen.

He's doing really well selling that he is actually vengeful. I'm beginning to doubt myself.

I'll lynch you happily now.

Thanks for that.

You know I'm town Copper. I can see it in your posts.

FU.

Get lynched.

Do it.

Self-hammer and shoot me you fucking idiot.

Banned for nailing scum?

Nah, that's town's job.

Why is Vettrock getting a free pass again?

[Heartless]

[float=][/float]

What tracker results do we have?

vettrock claims to have held onto his shot.

[Heartless]

Well, he wasn't exactly

claimed

at the end of Day 1. But copper and I and several others picked up on some fairly heavy-handed crumbs, so he wasn't exactly being subtle about it.

As a side note, I think vettrock's claim is far and away the most believable of the special claims. I would be extremely impressed at the foresight, execution, and balls it would take if vettrock planted those.

[Heartless]

Ewww...why?

Copper, I have my reasons and would like for vet to answer

I did not track last night, I thought I would be better tonight when there is less to pick from. Likely not the best choice In hindsight.

[Heartless]

If I had to guess, a little bit of a lack of self-awareness.

[Heartless]

I still think BBT is full of it.
VOTE: BlueBloodedToffee

[Heartless]

Then if it is scum all the PRs could be telling the truth but if it is town then Titus shoots someone

NEGATIVE, NEGATIVE

Should we mislynch today, Titus should

not

shoot tonight because if she misfires it's a possible scum win. This holds true regardless of if she's an SK or vig.

[Heartless]

No lynching actually not be a bad idea.

[Heartless]

Mod: Would a hider know if he is roleblocked?

[Heartless]

An idea would be to have BBT hide behind Me or Heartless. I want to be cleared and I think Heartless is scum so they are both good plays. It also makes scum guess who to shoot if BBT is actually a Hider.

This is problematic because 1) there's no way to verify that BBT actually hid and 2) even if BBT is hiding there's the possibility of a roleblock or bus drive to interfere and give misleading results.

[Heartless]

Actually what if BBT hides behind Copper slot? If just BBT ends up dead then copper is scum. If just Copper is dead then BBT is lying. If both are dead then it is the same thing as what a lynch today would have done. If they are both alive then copper should be confirmed town. We would have to no lynch to make sure we aren't walking right into LYLO or MYLO though from my quick math. Titus could shoot anyone they wanted and Vettrock should someone random.

Opinions?

Just a second, let me get Anti, because that actually sounds like a good strategy.

[Heartless]

If scum shoot who BBT hides behind, I hit not scum, sk (assuming existance) hits town...

Well then don't shoot, Titus.
And if there's a separate SK, then it's in their best interest to not shoot. They're not immune from being endgamed.

To me, what beast's plan does is give town the last shot instead of scum while giving the same set of flips and information. At least, that's my first impression.

[Heartless]

uhhhhh...........

there's still the bus driver / roleblocker issue w/ directing the claimed hider. and it all falls to hell in a handbasket if bbt is really scum.

[Heartless]

bbt --> copper
vettrock --> bbt

how about that?

[Heartless]

bbt --> copper
vettrock --> bbt

how about that?

that... actually doesn't solve anything

/fart

[Heartless]

It doesn't solve anything if they have the roleblock and the busdriver. While that is a chance it is a chance we have to take. Lets say it doesn't work out then at most tonight there will be two kills assuming SK/Vig don't kill. With the no lynch we still have a shot after tonight.

there's a TON of assumptions here, and without knowing about the roleblock/bus drive, hider "results" are floating in a speculative bowl full of diarrhea

i don't see what no lynch gets us here... what was tth talking about..?

[Heartless]

here's occam's razor for ya':

at least one of the pr claims are full of shit. it's bbt because the claim is flimsier than a portapotty.

[Heartless]

i mean... seriously

hider is such an innocuous thing to crumb early on (just put "hide" "hidden" some permutation of that in a post)
and bbt didn't do it

[Heartless]

If we no lynch we should guarantee that we are not in LYLO tomorrow. Titus doesn't shoot anyone and we go through with the Vettrock->BBT->Copper plan to see if we can gain any information. Busdriver will either redirect the Hider to scum, if not already on scum, or redirect Vettrock to someone who did nothing. Roleblock will just stop Vettrock or BBT.

At most we should have two kills tonight if they busdrive BBT to a scum person if BBT is even a Hider.

this plan is fucked if vettrock is scum

[Heartless]

the "breaking strategies" are all going to follow our reads anyway. what the fuck are people doing?

[Heartless]

If we no lynch we should guarantee that we are not in LYLO tomorrow. Titus doesn't shoot anyone and we go through with the Vettrock->BBT->Copper plan to see if we can gain any information. Busdriver will either redirect the Hider to scum, if not already on scum, or redirect Vettrock to someone who did nothing. Roleblock will just stop Vettrock or BBT.

At most we should have two kills tonight if they busdrive BBT to a scum person if BBT is even a Hider.

this plan is fucked if vettrock is scum

AHAHKJSLDAJFLK;DSAJFK;LDSA;LKFDSALKF;JD;LKSAJF;LKDSAJFDSA

OK

BEAST

if you operate from the assumption that >one of bbt/copper is scum<
it's better to lynch today because then there'll be the flip / undeniable certainty there if we lynch bbt first.
if copper, flips scum, then... scum flip. ok
if copper is town and shoots bbt, then... scum flip. also ok.

the only thing would be if you thought vettrock was scum and bbt/copper were town. in which case THE PLAN YOU PUT OUT THERE IS DOOMED ANYWAY BECAUSE WE CAN'T TRUST VETTROCK'S RESULT

what are you doing, beast?

[Heartless]

THE PLAN YOU PUT OUT THERE IS DOOMED ANYWAY BECAUSE WE CAN'T TRUST VETTROCK'S RESULT

Our universe is doomed!

DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!

[Heartless]

Sorry, Anti, couldn't resist.

[Heartless]

all the way on page 12?

/fart

nope

[Heartless]

I am asking if ppl saw crumbs. Me blind 2 crumbs. U should lrn that.

titus = mollie alt?

/mind blown

[Heartless]

If copper is indeed vengeful, I definitely think he should shoot BBT. I think we should be lynching BBT first anyway and I've already gone over why and no one seems to have much of a solid argument against it. Post 1497

I don't really understand why we all townread Vettrock.

I'll do this later tonight.

[Heartless]

/sigh

let's see , hosut i make nother bbt post or should i just let drusilla do it?

eh i'll let her do it

fuck it

also, anen the mollie alt hink was a joke. i met both mollie and titus in rl and i acn sassure you they're too differnt people

[Heartless]

where are you now, teapot?

[Heartless]

I also think you're on an alt because there is someone in this game who knows your meta well enough to pin you as scum if you used your regular account.

so....

your argument is: he replaced in under his main. got a scum role pm, and told the mod to switch to an alt...? and the mod would totally do this as there's no ethical breach at all?

no

[Heartless]

um....... if what you said really happened, i'm reporting it to a skittle. because it's that bad.

[Heartless]

someone agreeing to replace in THEN SWITCHING TO AN ALT B/C OF THE ALIGNMENT THEY GOT?

that's cheating as far as i'm concerned

(skittle = list mods)

[Heartless]

switching to an alt account to dodge scum meta AFTER GETTING THE ROLE PM?

that's what you're saying

and, yes, that's cheating because it confers an unfair advantage

[Heartless]

The moderator himself just confirmed that copper's slot is vengeful. :S

[Heartless]

I'd much prefer Heartless I think.

VOTE: Heartless

LOL

VOTE: bbt

[Heartless]

From my perspective, the most likely setup is either BBT or Vettock is lying but not both (TT). While it is possible the SK was in jail, rbed or crosskilled, I do not really see that happening here.

hint: it's bbt

[Heartless]

well, first off you're staring at a 95% shot at vettrock being scum and you're ignoring it

[Heartless]

Oh, the backtrack. This is so much fun.

[Heartless]

Why?

Antihero is off in his statistical analysis, but the point is still there.

If the moderator really did generate a random sequence of letters for the power roles, by using binomial distribution, you can calculate a 5.46% chance of a setup with a single T. The chances go slightly up for two T's at 16.4%. Not high, but it's triple the odds of the one T and not nearly as negligible. Three T's is even higher at 27%.

If BBT really is town then from his perspective, vettrock should be almost a sure thing and it's undoubtedly where his vote would go if he was playing towards a town win condition. But it's not, so he's not and he's avoiding voting off other PR claims because it would leave less reasonable doubt of his lies.

[Heartless]

It doesn't matter. The numbers don't lie. But you do.

(Hint: The confidence in Antihero and mastin's tone and posting isn't conferred by the frequency they use the f-bomb. Just for future reference.)

[Heartless]

there are reasons outside of setup spec, you know

like......the completely unnatural reads progression that's gone on today

no one bit on the Anen vote so you left that read in a ditch
you already were bracing for the real vengeflip on copper you knew was coming

So why would BBT, as scum, want to lynch Cooper if his goal is to live?

Now that the massclaim has occurred, his days are numbered anyway if he's scum. Taking down town with him would be optimal scum play.

Also, if you look at the recent posting, BBT's made some moves to try to pull out of the 1v1.

See especially

the last post I spoiler below:

Spoiler:

He's speaking to me Anen.

He's doing really well selling that he is actually vengeful. I'm beginning to doubt myself.

I'll lynch you happily now.

Thanks for that.

You know I'm town Copper. I can see it in your posts.

FU.

Get lynched.

Do it.

Self-hammer and shoot me you fucking idiot.

Banned for nailing scum?

Nah, that's town's job.

Why is Vettrock getting a free pass again?

these reads change as the walls of your tunnels collapse

[Heartless]

Mastin/BC/

Vettrock

/Heartless is where the scum are.

Guaranteed.

also... for all the bluster about FUCK THE MATH

LOL

[Heartless]

I have not checked the math but are we now at mylo or lylo now that copperpot died?

neither

[Heartless]

well this inexplicable counterwagon on a vt claim isn't suspicious at all....

[Heartless]

yeah, this is fucking ridiculous

MOD: can SK and us just call a joint win now?

[Heartless]

VOTE: call the game an SK/mafia tie

there's no way town's winning this, and SK, we can run a war of attrition against you to M.A.D.

it's only fair anyway. town played terribly.

[Heartless]

So Heartless and Anen are scum. I'm guessing wicked for the serial killer.

maybe. maybe not.

who knows?

[Heartless]

i know

it's p funny