Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[onion]

@prawn, pleaz 2 ansr qustn n 326, kthnx
@GIF, pleaz 2 ansr qustn n 326, kthnx
@Tripod, y u want hammer wth 1 week left?
@Marquis, what did the hammer say to the tomato?

@CBD, your link is to post 275, which does include a rant against lurkers, but the phrase 'lurking scum' does not appear in it. lurking is totally anti-town, and there does exist a policy lynch for lynching these sort of anti-towns day 1, and its called Lynch All Lurkers.

The policy lynch doesn't care about the alignment of the victims, it just argues that there's no information day 1 anyway, and so lynching a clearly anti-town is probably as good as you can get. it'll help more down the line.

Now, it totally helps when the lurkers are also scummy, but its hard to do both at the same time, because you need to provide information to readable, and lurkers don't do that. so no, i don't have scumreads from our lurkers because they provide no content. i could provide a list of lurkers, but so what.

-=Postcount up to 349, the LURK-O-METER=-
01 Futan + Marquis = 2 + 11, all but 1 are useless.
11 Prawn = 13, 2 useless.
12 Equinox = 13, 1 useless.
14 CBD = 19, 5 of which are useless.
15 Llama = 15, 0 useless. good job at that at least.
17 GIF = 23, 6 useless.
17 Bubs = 17, 0 useless.
22 onion = 23, 1 useless, unless you count logic arguments, in which case 3.
29 TellTale = 31, 2 useless. good job.
45 Tripod = freaking 91 posts. its impossible to tell which ones aren't useless. i'll just half it.
56 Derangement = 61, not many are useless, minus 5ish

so as a tried and true method of evaluation, everyone who posts less than me is a lurker. I'm surprised by how low Equinox is, but everyone else ended up where i thought they would be. the obv lurkers are Marquis and Prawn, with darkhorse Equinox for some reason. I'm not disappointed in your input equinox, just keep doing what you're doing. but Marquis and Prawn, you need to play harder.

I find it cute that tripod and derangement make up half the posts in this game.

So there's the list of lurkers. I got a nullread on Marquis, a townread on Equinox and ya know possibly maybe kinda sorta not really ish quazi scumread on Prawn, but i also got an open question waiting for him to answer, so we'll see what that does.

-=-

i don't like CBD asking UT and Equinox for their reads on him.
i don't like Prawn's 330 which seems to translate to "he isn't scum, we should lynch him."

and i can't believe i'm going to agree with tripod, but he's right about Bub's votes on Prawn and Marquis. Because Bubs said he was going to remove the vote, it effectively didn't count for anything and might as well not have been placed. However, slow voting, and explaining what you are doing before you do it are pro-town, and there was nothing at all wrong with saying you'd vote for marquis in 24 hours and then doing it. its just that voting for prawn in the meantime was strange.

Right, and now to continue the logic argument with Derangement.
are we actually arguing an in-game suspicion here, or just the symbolism used to represent it? i mean, you aren't actually arguing that we should lynch Tripod before Llama, are you?

312 proves that you know a lot more about this than i do, so help me out. how would i write the statement i want? X -> Y, if X is the case, then Y is the case. However, other things can also cause Y to be the case even if X isn't true. I want a truth table that looks like

X - Y
TRUE - TRUE
FALSE - NULL

what do i use to make that?

[Untrod Tripod]

its impossible to tell which ones aren't useless

that says a lot about you, frankly

[Untrod Tripod]

and i can't believe i'm going to agree with tripod, but he's right about Bub's votes on Prawn and Marquis

hey you know, broken clocks and whatnot

[onion]

so here, try this one:

IF (i eat ice cream) THEN (i feel good)
or
A --> B, where A= i eat ice cream and B = i feel good.

But that doesn't mean that i can't feel good without eating ice cream, nor does it mean that me feeling good is proof that i ate ice cream. i can feel good for a wide range of reasons, one of which is A. However, A is proof of B. when i eat ice cream, i always feel good.

[Untrod Tripod]

its just that voting for prawn in the meantime was strange.

THIS PART IS IMPORTANT

scum (if they're not braindead) knows what a protown agenda looks like, but where they fuck up is how they go about it. these moments of awkwardness are one of the most important ways we can catch them.

[Untrod Tripod]

@Tripod, y u want hammer wth 1 week left?

waiting up to the deadline is a great way to get people to pile on a dumb wagon they don't really believe in. if you think you've caught scum you GO FOR THE THROAT

________


also wrt to post count: my post total is artificially inflated because I don't make wall posts, I split up my big posts into one thought each. if I were posting like everyone else I'd probably have somewhere around the number you settled on, maybe even a bit less than average.

[LlamaFluff]

Can we PLEASE lynch prawn?

He literally just responded to my push on him saying its OMGUS while basically ignoring everything else. Also that he is now apparently saying I am "more concerned about making a counter wagon" does not mean "self-preservation". His whole point there just made a huge left turn when he got called on it. He went from A and B to when I called out one of his points not actually being a point "Just B - you are scum for thinking I also said A"

This guy is doing NOTHING and yet no one pays attention to him. When he does decide to actually do something, its scummy. Dismissing a case as OMGUS, changing reasoning behind votes afterwards, lurking, the whole onion thing which immediately changed to "reaction testing" when called on it. He needs to be dead here. The last thing game related thing he has said is "Marquis lurking is not indicative of alignment - I would lynch them for it". I mean, that's literally saying "I would lynch this player over something that my own meta says is a null tell" while having avoided raising a case on anyone for over a week.

[Untrod Tripod]

why not marquis?

[petroleumjelly]

Day One, Vote Count #14

Marquis – 5 – TellTaleHeart, GuyInFreezer, Derangement, Untrod Tripod, Onion Bubs
LlamaFluff – 2 – prawneater, onion
prawneater - 2 - LlamaFluff, Equinox

With

11 alive

it takes

6

to lynch and

4

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is

March 5, 2015, at 6:45 AM PST

.

Not Voting – 2 – ChannelDelibird, Marquis

[LlamaFluff]

why not marquis?

Because all anyone has on them is that they are lurking. Also don't think with any other wagon struggling to find traction with a week until deadline scum will just lurk their way to a VT claim and continue to just bugger off. Feels more like town who just doesn't care, think scum would at least have come in with a "hey I will do something" and actually do it or at least a fakeclaim to try and get a wagon off of them.

Basically doing a little and it always being scummy is more likely scum than constantly saying they are going to catch up. For that matter why is posting about once a day saying you are going to catch up more of a tell than posting once every three or four days with nothing game related? If Marquis was going to strategically lurk as scum wouldn't they actually lurk instead of constantly reminding the entire game they are lurking?

[Marquis]

oh i thought i would have been hammered by now.

i really am building a post. guess i should open it back up again. let's try not to get distracted now

[LlamaFluff]

I would also appreciate it if just for a bit someone took Marquis off L-1 before Prawn just hammers him out of fear of getting lynched himself.

[Marquis]

yeah so i wanted to try a newer way of catching up for me. usually i just skimread then forget about things and eventually get really into the game if i'm not lynched in the next two days. going to try and comment on more than i really need to in case i need to go back and check something and how i was feeling about it

Spoiler: catchup/conversing with myself to sort things out. lots of line breaks so yeah hide hide

on CES kill: somewhat agree with equi that an oldie is part of the scum team, but then it also feels like someone who personally knows him wouldn't agree to kill him n1 if this game was one of his first ones since coming back.

cdb reads town for 13 about not killing CES- reads as uninhibited town commentary

Can I just check something with you Equinox? That comment you made about LlamaFluff probably rolling scum given your history; was that just an RVS reason for your vote or were you actually making that as a serious argument for him being scum?

what is this question though. nullscum.

derangement's 23 followup reads town though. sounds actually genuine/curious instead of just asking pointlessly like bubs.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: LlamaFluff

Because L-3 is pretty far away from lynch. L-2 is much better.

nulltown. (flashforward in my mind to meta commentary on me, and that becomes probtown.)

See, I'm not sure I buy what you're saying Equinox. Admittedly though, right now there's not an awful lot to go on beyond your hypothesis and I'd have to see something from LlamaFluff before I can come down on either of you. [...]

scumread stronger.

next few posts, prawneater more probtown. 32

ut nulltown just because that is exactly what i love to do as town. 36 edit: end of page to dee also townvibing

reg!onion weird and kind of feels out of place. 37

dee town. 38

end of page 2 readslist

5.) Marquis (rep. Futan)

4.) Equinox
3.) Derangement
10.) prawneater
12.) Untrod Tripod
1.) ChannelDelibird

6.) GuyInFreezer
7.) LlamaFluff
11.) TellTaleHeart

8.) onion
9.) Onion Bubs

Spoiler: ok so yeah just gonna multispoiler this, page 3 on

derangement still town, ut nulltown/probtown?? somewhere above null. i really like this series of posts
note to self: i might not know how to read ut, be wary

prawn 53 noting possible justification after the crime. not too troubling for townread this early tho

GIF feels weird. not used to a lot of this, a lot of these players. lessen meta reliance in future

screw this i'm hungry i'll continue in a few hours. i've read more but i'm doing that first close read then second read with in-the-moment detail/notes thing.

[Untrod Tripod]

Unvote

[TellTaleHeart]

think scum would at least have come in with a "hey I will do something" and actually do it or at least a fakeclaim to try and get a wagon off of them.

Right, what's this based on?

[Untrod Tripod]

Marquis

Fucking post or my vote moves back to you

[Marquis]

i just woke up go away

later today

[Untrod Tripod]

Beetlejuice beetlejuice beetlejuice

[Untrod Tripod]

Ps THAT POST COULD HAVE BEEN SOME READS BUT IT WAS JUST MORE GODDAMN EXCUSES

[Marquis]

i'd just have ignored you as i usually do as scum

i'll be on my comp and looking at this game for a few hours. don't act like deadline is today; i have other more important things to finish first

phone. on. toilet.

[Derangement]

i'd just have ignored you as i usually do as scum

i'll be on my comp and looking at this game for a few hours. don't act like deadline is today; i have other more important things to finish first

phone. on. toilet.

Why didn't you?
Why would you ignore it as scum?

[Derangement]

@onion: Won't be home for a couple of hours yet, so I'll save logic explanations for when I have a keyboard to do it comfortably.

My issue is not with your terminology, but with what I perceive as faulty reasoning being used to support a vote, regardless of my current read on the people involved.
Usually, it's best to let the accused defend themselves, but in this case, since the flaw is not in a misunderstanding of actions or intent, but a failure to reach the right conclusion from the premises you assume, the maths lunatic in me feels obliged to point it out.

My attempts at explaining why it's incorrect are in hopes that you'll either provide a valid reason for your current vote, or change who you're voting for.
Letting bad reasons for voting go unchallenged might end up with people being misled into making

more

incorrect conclusions, which scum could ride all the way to a possible mislynch.

As for Llama vs Tripod, I currently have llama as the towniest of the two.
Not quite a solid read, but more than enough to prioritise.

[onion]

@Derangement, so you disagree with BOTH my symbolism and my vote :/
i'm no formal logic master or superprogrammer or anything like that, so i'll try to make it really really clear what i'm trying to say so that either i can convince you, or give you the ammo to convince me. either would be an acceptable outcome.

i know that flips don't influence the actual probability of other flips. the roles are set at the start of the game, and our knowledge has nothing to do with what someone flips. from an outside point of view, scum have a 100% chance to flip scum. but from an internal point of view, we aren't discussing the chances of someone flipping scum, but instead something like the chances of us accurately predicting the flip. that's why we say things like 'Llama is more likely to flip scum than Derangement'. it really means something like 'our chances of predicting a scumflip from Llama are greater than our chances of predicting a scumflip from Derangement.'

for right now, i will ignore everything except Tripod L-1ing Llama. Then i'll add in other things later in this post.

if we identify Llama's alignment, before Tripod's, it provides us with some useful information, regardless of which alignment he flips.
1 If Llama flips scum, it means that Tripod L-1'd a scum, meaning that Tripod is probably town.
2 if Llama flips town, it means that Tripod L-1'd a townie, meaning that Tripod is even more scummy than we currently thought.
Both of these bits of information are very valuable to us, and it would be useful to have them.

If we identify Tripod's alignment before Llama's, it still provides us with useful information, but its not AS USEFUL as the previous example.
3 If Tripod flips scum, it means a scum L-1'd somellama, making that somellama probably town.
4 If Tripod flips town, it means that a townie L-1'd somellama, which doesn't say much about Llama's alignment.

Now, lets add in Tripod's known anti-town, unreliable behavior. it indicates that he might L-1 someone for the lolz, and might do this as town. it seems that its almost a null-tell for him. this weakens situation 4 even more, becuase now its a chaotic anti-town townie L-1ing someone, which hardly means anything at all.

And so, disregarding the scummyness of either of the 2 targets, it seems logical to lynch Llama first, because it provides equally useful info on a scumflip and better information on a townflip than the Tripod lynch would.

I believe that both tripod and llama are about equally scummy. Tripod is anti-town and dangerous and crazy, while Llama blends into the background, chooses to disregard questions asked of him, and places only votes that are popular. either one could easily be scum. Also, they are both on the Cogito List, so there's that as well. Because both are pretty scummy, we should probably lynch at least one of em some time, and as of right now, the information provided by a Llama lynch is equal to or greater than the information provided by a Tripod lynch. thus my vote.

i think that's as clear as i can make it. ball is in your court, derangement.

[Untrod Tripod]

Now, lets add in Tripod's known anti-town, unreliable behavior. it indicates that he might L-1 someone for the lolz

you have added jack fucking shit to this game other than logical symbol obfuscation

shut the fuck up

[Untrod Tripod]

it's getting really old that you go out of your way to insult my abilities in every goddamn post you make