Mini 1649: Jabberwocky Mafia (Game Over)

[TierShift]

will do ISO reads with axle and tell you guys what I think

[Elbirn]

Even with BRantz flipping town I still don't think I like Belisarius. That clear logical contradiction feels like agenda to me. Why did he want BRantz wagon to fail, but he wanted to push through a policy lynch? My gut says he would scumbuddy town to set up false associatives for after he dies. And then there's 529 which again is crap and looks like the kind of thing he did in my past game with him.

Axel is starting to be a scum read.

I want to hear more on this. I can't read Axel.

Non-commital, wishywashy stance on your buddy much?

VOTE: Belisarius

[Elbirn]

I think axl WAS set to die at N1, without a scum kill. This makes the setup most probably 9:2 after N1, which is pretty much balanced if town is weak.

I don't think him suiciding is too townsided or replacing the NK is too townsided. A NK would make it evens, which is something the mod might have tried to prevent.

Even if he was set to die N1, why would that replace the night kill?
Adding to my reasons previously stated, I feel like Axl was trying way to hard to set up a Tier lynch for someone about to die and flip scum. Plus he hammered BRantz, which he could have very easily not done. It's not like he needed towncred for preventing a nolynch if he was set to die that night.

[Elbirn]

Speaking of Axl's interactions with Tier, he was trying pretty hard to get him lynched for someone about to die. And it seems to me that Tier was fairly likely to be lynched yesterday. It would not make sense for Team Scum to throw away 2 members for zero gain....Unless I've missed something Tier is pretty much conftown. Thoughts on this please?

[TierShift]

He was trying to set up my lynch?
ok I'm really gonna read right now

It would replace the nightkill, because evens are incredibly hard on town. A 8-2 is functionally equivalent to 7-2, which is pretty balanced with a decently powered town. If there is a decently powered town, scum wouldn't have to have a suicider.

I really think town is weak in this setup or scum is just incredibly strong.
Think about it: why would you, as mod, include a scum suicider?

[TierShift]

Ok I would really call stuff like this WIFOM normally, but I was REALLY close to being lynched and axle did keep pushing me. So I guess I do deserve townpoints for that

[TierShift]

If I were scum with axle, I would try to distance enough from him as to not be looked at today. I think we gotta look at people who had lots of interactions with axle about maybe somewhat trivial things or stuff that looks like they're talking just because of the talking.
Basically like usual buddy tells, but there probably is even more interaction here.

I've been trying to sort through axle's posts. It's really tough.

[Elbirn]

He was trying to set up my lynch?
ok I'm really gonna read right now

It would replace the nightkill, because evens are incredibly hard on town. A 8-2 is functionally equivalent to 7-2, which is pretty balanced with a decently powered town. If there is a decently powered town, scum wouldn't have to have a suicider.

I really think town is weak in this setup or scum is just incredibly strong.

Think about it: why would you, as mod, include a scum suicider?

1. Dawg he tunnelled you all day. :/

2. I wouldn't, but if I did...To balance team vs. scum. Since that's negative utility for scum, it must mean scum is strong or town is weak. Since my hypothesis is that town has at least a Vig and a Doc/JK...Either we have some crappy other roles, or maybe scum started with 4 members? But that wouldn't make sense, the Jabberwock poem has 3 villains (Jabberwocky, Bandersnatch, JubJub Bird). So I'm guessing either we have crap for power roles or scum has a Roleblocker or Rolecop or something?

[TierShift]

Well at least I'm not the only one who is confused!

as

I feel like nothing has happened for two pages.

is there something you could be doing to make yourself less confused?

You are confused about what in particular?

I like this post.

Puts axle in town pile

I am "confused" about WP's babbling for two pages. More joking around than anything else (the whole thing was a response to tier's "idk tldr".

This is scum.

VOTE: Tiershift

Sneaking so a cw forms on me.

1 vote is a CW.

jerk reaction noted .... vote stands.

No my goal was to get more votes on myself. I was meaning that to read...

I am just going to sneak onto this wagon so people vote me.

Vote: brantz

Witness Protection is likely town or scum with Tiershift. There is town red to be had (before I was overt in drawing votes to myself) in just throwing a vote on the tier wagon. He doesn't vote there.

I get similar town feels from you. The over explanation and hostility weaken my townread of you though. Most of the information I get from wagon analysis is later in the game. Since I know I am town, this creates a semi natural wagon analysis. Is it perfect? Nope but we are out of rvs.

We should have been out of RVS when Tier reacted negatively to one of my first posts. Yet he did not cast a serious vote against me.

Farside did cast a serious vote against me but I do not know why. (Please explain Farside)

I voted for you because you are not typically a Chatty Cathy asking lots of questions. Whenever I've played with you, there is very few posting, not a lot of analysis and not asking lots of question and riding low. The change you had at the start read as trying too hard.

I think farside is town for 92, especially in combination with 93. She is just doing early game reads, not singling out a scumbuddy with a townread. I like to think the axle townread felt genuine.

Yeah, still not feeling the love for Tier .... wagons,

Id argue with you about your post 165 but I dont want to muddy the clearest water he can post in.

I want Tier to play or die.
I have enough scummy vibes from the little he has posted that, him not playing as well, is dying for me.

This however looks EXACTLY like talking just for the talking. Going to look into beli now.

[TierShift]

2. I wouldn't, but if I did...To balance team vs. scum. Since that's negative utility for scum, it must mean scum is strong or town is weak. Since my hypothesis is that town has at least a Vig and a Doc/JK...Either we have some crappy other roles, or maybe scum started with 4 members? But that wouldn't make sense, the Jabberwock poem has 3 villains (Jabberwocky, Bandersnatch, JubJub Bird). So I'm guessing either we have crap for power roles or scum has a Roleblocker or Rolecop or something?

okay, here is my guess.
You want to mod a mini, but in secrecy want to play a 9:2
Not an 8:2, that is not a real game and just stupid.

But well, let's not rehash this too much.

[TierShift]

Your casual-meta failed you. You want meta, one of my first large games the town basically posted itself to death; it was impossible for them to find any signal in all the noise they created. So yes, I think it was a waste of time, drunk uncle, creating noise which downs out signal and hurting the motivation of some players. I would lean town on you, that doesn't mean I have to think you've been at all helpful.

Was this a game Varsoon was in??? If so, then there you have it. Or are you advocating lurker lynches?

No. Yes.

VOTE: hi im Yakko

Wait, what?

How does complaining about low SNR translate into advocating lynching lurkers? Lurkers, by their very nature, are low noise contributors. Almost every word they post is signal to some degree. Even doing nothing but making one fluff post every time they get towards prod timer is alignment indicative.

But you are hostile towards low SNR, correct?
And you also advocate lynching lurkers?

How do you reconcile those positions?

That is not a question for WP

Why do you feel a theory disconnect from play is scummy? Have you caught scum earlier on the basis of their thoughts on mafia theory not completely matching with their play?

Tier thinks I made a bad post. Refuses to vote me.
Tier has posts denying he has read the thread while selectively responding to content. #91
Tier has provided no content.
Tier has refused to vote me despite being the only player he reacted negatively to.

*If I voted for every post I thought was bad, I'd lynch so much town I'd be an honorary member of every scumteam arrayed against me; One can dislike a post without believing it comes from scum.
*Hasn't read the entire thread does not mean the same thing as hasn't read any of it
*It's early D1
*This is a paraphrase of the first point.

Why did you feel the need to counterpoint every point titus made on me?

Actually, I can't place my finger on why, but the wagon on Seraph feels sorta like the flashwagon on me in Open 480

Please indicate in what time span of the game the wagon on you built. Please do try to explain how this wagon is similar to the one on you in that game. Why would the specific way the wagon built there always be indicative of a scum lynch?

I feel that it's extremely hard to discern scum votes from town votes on such a deadline flashwagon. I really wonder how you can determine on what alignment the lynch is going to fall by just seeing the wagon build.

And please don't say something in the vein of 'It just looked like it, idk' because I do vague meta references as scum all the time and I think it's what you might be doing here. Even if you cannot fully lay your finger on it, please do try to explain what you CAN explain.

[Titus]

Suicidal combines with deathproof maybe?

[TierShift]

I think axle's casual buddy of titus is indicative of her being town. If axle would be buddying a buddy it would probably look a lot more forced.

I don't see much in axle's talk to VM. Calling those interactions null for VM.

[TierShift]

Hi titus what do you think of me tryharding?

[TierShift]

Suicidal combines with deathproof maybe?

is this a joke or what

[TierShift]

The flub slot is pretty null atm

Oh and I guess you buddied me so there's that

I still want you to explain this.

Ok tier can be town for now

VOTE: tier

only because I want you to townread me

And this.

---

catching up, ask me things. got some time.

I dont.

You are voting Brantz and were even before Tiers catchup.
Whats is your view of Tiers catchup posts?

They are fine. It's a catch up post. Not sure what you're measuring it against but what they give you is what you get be grateful.

He's not really trying to interact with axle. Going to give slight townpoints.

---

TSO has zero interactions with axle.

---

Axlegreaser - His posts are "different", but I like where a lot of his questions go. Calling him Town.

This read looks slightly safe. As if WP wants to protect himself against his buddy flipping town ('well, I guess different didn't mean town in the end"). I don't see a reason to hold back a full townread on axle for WP here.

[TierShift]

I think axle being willing to hammer faq and reconsidering his position on the preferred lynch gives faq a few townpoints. I think axle would have strongly pushed brantz if his buddy was really up for a lynch for nothing more than lurking and thus not likely to be lynched the following day. There is no way to know if axle would have followed through with the hammer on faq, though.

If I had to guess right now, my scumpicks would be beli and WP/Flub with chances of VM/TSO.

VOTE: beli

[farside22]

I think axle's casual buddy of titus is indicative of her being town. If axle would be buddying a buddy it would probably look a lot more forced.

I don't see much in axle's talk to VM. Calling those interactions null for VM.

[Elbirn]

@Tier: Why does not interacting with Axle = Town?

[Elbirn]

If I were scum with axle, I would try to distance enough from him as to not be looked at today. I think we gotta look at people who had lots of interactions with axle about maybe somewhat trivial things or stuff that looks like they're talking just because of the talking.
Basically like usual buddy tells, but there probably is even more interaction here.

I've been trying to sort through axle's posts. It's really tough.

Like, say you're scum. So you try to distance yourself. Isn't a good way of doing that avoiding him all together? Instead you reach the opposite conclusion I have. *Headscratch*

[TierShift]

nah, scum always talk to each other in an attempt to distance.

[Titus]

nah, scum always talk to each other in an attempt to distance.

Bad. Scum can suck or wifom.

[TierShift]

In my experience, scum wants to talk to each other. I have played a lot of games and especially somewhat experienced scum fits the bill. Complete newbscum might avoid each other and experienced scum players might mess with you, but there's quite a few players here who I would think to contact their partners in-thread.

It's not a strong towntell and I have been clear about that in my reads.

[Flubbernugget]

The flub slot is pretty null atm

Oh and I guess you buddied me so there's that

I still want you to explain this.

Ok tier can be town for now

VOTE: tier
only because I want you to townread me

And this.

Buddying accusation was in reference to agreeing axle needs to be vigged.

Looked like you were gamesolving, so you were town.

I thought I saw dissonance between your way of looking at axle for associatives and your actual associatives with him. But your associatives mirror mine anyway so UNVOTE:

[TierShift]

I thought I saw dissonance between your way of looking at axle for associatives and your actual associatives with him.

I don't understand what this means. What exactly do you think you saw?