Mini #1647: Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord, Game Over

[Untrod Tripod]

Untrod Tripod wrote:
caaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaan we lynch onion now and stop pussyfooting around


No.

counterpoint: yes!

[Equinox]

Something just occurred to me. onion, between the last game you played on mafiascum.net and this one, did you play any other Mafia games? If yes and they are online, could you please link them?

[LlamaFluff]

It has now been two weeks since TTH voted NJAC and they STILL haven't explained the vote. Just for the record.

[Equinox]

Also, I wouldn't write GuyInFreezer off as useless. It's more likely that it's Derangement's hypothesis quoted above, but there's something I want to look at from Day 1 aside from prawneater vs. the world after lolwork.

All right, so this was done. What I like to do for Nights where there was an unexpected kill is to gather everyone's end-of-Day reads and see if there might be something there that could tell me why this person was killed or why some other person wasn't killed. Turning the chessboard around, so to speak.

Not that there's any special conclusion of which to speak because GuyInFreezer pretty heavily implied he had a power role. That apparently wasn't the case, and I really want to figure out what he meant by "trackers cannot lie" (unless he was trying to get himself killed, in which case, damn you, GuyInFreezer). Sleep-addled brain can't really think too well right now, but that adage seems kind of familiar.

Anyway, some reads on which GuyInFreezer did differ from most others was a conviction that LlamaFluff was town. The only other person who voiced a town read of LlamaFluff was snscompt1, who was under suspicion at the time. It might not mean anything, but I tend to think that depends on the personality of the scum with whom we're dealing. Ideally, I would go through scum games of suspicious people in the game, but that depends on whether or not I have time in the next 2 days to do that.

Anyway, I'm trying to re-read the thread, but I'm only on page 4. I'll probably just vote someone tomorrow because this waffling could go on forever.

[Green Crayons]

Will be posting Llama thoughts later today.

[prawneater]

I'm game to lynch onion, to be perfectly honest

if only so I no longer have to read his posts

Weren't you townreading Onion? This is a terrible reason to lynch him.

I don't like your flippant attitude this game. You're willing to throw a vote on anyone. Do you have any reads? Do you have a case to push?

[Green Crayons]

Llama Case

1. Bad entry into the game.

I'm always a bit iffy in terms of evaluating RVS-stage play, but Llama entered into the game in Post 47 with one foot decidedly outside of RVS, so I feel comfortable in saying that it was bad and reflective of his alignment. I really nothing the "oh and UT" tag at the end (insofar that I saw the theory that Llama was "keeping his options open" or whatever, because it's not alignment indicative to suspect more than one player at one time), as it's the GIF suspicions that bother me in particular.

Why it's alignment indicative:

Llama's GIF-suspicions are not actually of alignment-indicative play - any alignment could accept Equinox's theory as valid, but then dispute whether any particular player fell under that theory's umbrella. It's a technical argument being made early on that doesn't hold up to scrutiny, which suggests that Llama was really stretching to find something scummy about something. This is particularly true as Llama was selected by the thread to get early D1 pressure to post. Llama's immediate follow up in Post 59 confirm this understanding.

I remain unconvinced by Llama's restatements in Post 234 and Post 237, which read more like Llama having to defend a suspicion he's married to rather than actual belief. This read of 234 and 237 is because Llama appears to be shifting the goalposts to make his position better: first it was why didn't GIF do the town thing and question the validity of Equinox's scum pool (a why question), rather than do the scum thing and question why GIF was part of that pool; now it is why didn't GIF do the town thing and just shrug at the scum pool and ignore it, rather than do the scum thing and question Equinox at all (any why question)?

2. Inordinate focus on the early D1 L-1.

Who cares? It's not a big deal. IF Llama is town AND IF Llama got quick lynched on D1 THEN hammer and setup would (rightly) come under scrutiny. But that didn't happen, and so UT putting Llama at L-1 in super early D1 is unequivocally worthless alignment discussion.

Why it's alignment indicative:

Llama makes an early D1 L-1 a big deal (when it isn't), and a basis to push UT (when it isn't alignment indicative), which scum would do because it's something easy to push.

Examples:

Post 72, Post 74, Post 77, Post 81, Post 100, Post 105, Post 117, Post 234, Post 259.

3. Llama's prawn-suspicions are forced.

I agree with a few of prawn's Llama suspicions (e.g., GIF suspicions), and disagree with a few of prawn's Llama suspicions (e.g., Llama trying to make a counterwagon rather than figure out the game in Post 174, which I don't think is inherently scum play). I think it's important to make that distinction because even though I disagree with that initial suspicion, I think Llama's reaction is suspicious.

Why it's alignment indicative:

Llama eventually shifts to a prawn vote for that latter suspicion (Post 303), which I think prawn rightly identifies as a mischaracterization of prawn's position (Post 340). Llama's framing of prawn's position makes it easier for Llama to justify his prawn-vote. Llama also further warps prawn's position in Post 356), focusing on whether prawn's criticism amounts to whether Llama was engaging in "self-preservation" (not sure where that term came from, I don't see prawn using it at all), rather than to prawn's actual point: that Llama didn't appear to be trying to figure out the game and vote accordingly, and instead was simply trying to get the thread's vote momentum thrown onto someone - anyone - else.

From there on out, Llama goes down a prawn-is-scum rabbit hole. Admittedly, this possibly suggests a town tunnel, but with the basic setup of the prawn-suspicions as discussed above, Llama trying to throw everything including the kitchen sink at prawn could equally be Llama-scum trying to mimic a town tunnel.

Also, some of the accusations are just jaw-droppingly desperate material (see Post 438, Post 441, and Post 442) that I would think Llama-town would take a moment to reflect and evaluate and weed out such accusations, rather than just try to see what sticks.

4. One-shot tracker is a scum-lean claim.

Why it's alignment indicative:

If a scum was going to claim a PR, a one-shot tracker is not a bad claim. Particularly if the power is over on N1, and the result is not really helpful (a no movement operates as a 50% town result if we're assuming 2 person scum group). His PR claim keeps him alive by the town, and his expenditure of his only night action justifies why he hasn't been killed by the scum.

As for Llama's convoluted plan of keeping Marquis alive to track Marquis, I don't think that's inherently alignment indicative, though it's sure as shit convoluted. What bothers me more than the alleged plan, though, is Equinox's observation (Post 625) that Llama is well versed in normal roles and has already thought up optimal tracker-town play. With that in mind, Llama's convoluted plan/theory explanations feels like scum super happy to throw down a textbook of knowledge about why his play is obvtown play (Post 599, Post 644, and Post 650) rather than a more straightforward play/theory that would be subject to typical WIFOM and, thus, not really help Llama-scum much.

[Green Crayons]

Sorry.

[Green Crayons]

@Derangement:

4. Appears to have knowledge about Llama's alignment.

Post 183 caught my eye during my read through, because I thought onion was saying that CDB being on Llama's wagon, pre-Llama flip, was suspicious. This looked like onion had tipped his hand about knowing Llama's (town) alignment. Rereading, though, I see that in Post 180, onion is saying that all slots on any bandwagon (except first and hammer) are suspicious.

Why it's alignment indicative:

I still think this points to a scum perspective, and knowledge about Llama's alignment. I'm not convinced this universal aspect of the theory in Post 180 really allays my suspicions about onion preemptively suspecting the folks on Llama's bandwagon. Assuming for the sake of argument that all slots on a town bandwagon are scummy, per onion's theory, that wouldn't hold true for slots on a scum bandwagon. That is, onion has taken a questionable principle that applies to reviewing

town bandwagons

, and has preemptively applied it to Llama's bandwagon while also still suspecting Llama.

What if Llama's actually

scum

?
How does this affect your reads on both of them?

If Llama is actually scum, then Llama is scum.
If Llama is actually scum, then I'd need to reevaluate onion under the theory of whether onion was preemptively suspecting people on a Llama-scum wagon. I don't really care to do the mental thought required to do so until there's a flip, because effort. Not sure if this would have a domino effect on my entire onion read, or if the other suspicion pillars would still be able to stand on their own.

[Green Crayons]

@onion:

woo this guy's great! lets keep him.

1) yes i do that, i post lots, i love math and logic and theory. i have a terrible memory and so i summarize everything for myself and you people too so i can remember what i thought at the time. i never thought about how it might be anti-town to make long posts because people won't read it though. i always thought it was anti-town to not read my posts. but maybe not, maybe i should include tldr's for people who are too anti-town to read my apparently anti-town long posts. there's an idea.

2) yes i do that, but its objectively better to lynch the equally scummy person that will produce more info on flip. for example, if Equinox and Llama were equally scummy (which they are not, equinox is great!) and Llama had tons of interesting, information rich interactions with people while Equinox did not, it would be better to lynch Llama instead of Equinox. Thus 'this guy will produce lots of info on flip' is a good point to consider when picking who to lynch. nothing is the ONLY thing to lynch on (well, ya know except for scum-claims and stuff) but it's totally a reason to pick one scummy person over another.

3) yes, but its because i hate him. you'll be happy to know i calmed down about it though, see post 775.

4) um, the suspicious seats on the bandwagon are the not-first-or-last regardless of the flip. scum want to lynch townies, so will pile on, and scum want to be on wagons that lynch scum if the wagon is going to happen anyway. what scum don't want to do is place a first vote on their buddy, then push the case, work it up and finally lynch them, because that's a lot of work that could have been put into lynching a townie instead. its just self-defeating. so middle seats are just scummy. early seats are more scummy on town-wagons and later seats are more scummy on scum-wagons. maybe the hammer is scummy on scum-wagons i dunno, case by case.

5) people keep bringing this up and i'm fuzzy on it. we know there's (at least was) power roles out there, and we can suss out kinda sorta what they ought to be by what we know, and we can use this information to judge people's roleclaims, and that's useful. i've always assumed that our power roles aren't going to be like 'oh you talking about doctors thats me!' because that would be entirely terrible. but i don't really get why people consider the discussion of roles without claims to be scummy. please tell me.

--) that god damn drunk housemate thing again. its really truly my drunk housemate. he's funny because he's dumb, and this time he read the list of names and picked some people. i posted them so that at the end of the game i'll know if it turned out he was right or not and that'll be funny too. ITS NOT A BREADCRUMB.

tldr: because long posts are anti-town without tldrs: GC is great. i won't support a lynch on him right now.

1. It's not so much that you habitually long posts. The problem is that a lot of the content of those posts were either filler (off the top of my head, opining about whether people should do full lists or not), or were so repetitive or convoluted that they actively made it difficult to read.

2. I'm skeptical that two people are ever "equally" scummy. In any event, I feel that you used the "post-flip associative tell" basis as a main drive to push lynches moreso than alignment-indicative reasons.

3. Okay. This doesn't respond to my point.

4. Okay. This doesn't respond to my point.

5. I think Derangement and Equinox summarize best in Post 817 and Post 820.

[Equinox]

When I see cases written all pretty like Green Crayons has been doing, they're 100% more convincing than they ought to be.

Prawn is scum. NJAC and onion are town. Other scum I would probably say one of: GIF/Derange (who has been bugging me on a gut level). Apart from UT/TTH I have varying level of town reads on rest of game.

Still need to full reread. Still sitting on UT and onion are town, CDB mild town. Rest are null at best.

What changed between these two posts, LlamaFluff?

[Derangement]

Hmm... Crayons, who do you think is most likely to be the scum team?

[Untrod Tripod]

I don't like your flippant attitude this game

you'll live

[onion]

@equiniox, no this is my 2nd game of mafia for this iteration. there were 4ish back in 2009 but i was dumb back then. i also played in Spies 7, which was ultra mafia and probably the coolest thing ever. 50ish people, subforums, multiple alignments, games and activities, twas very cool.

@GC, 4) ok i'll try again. i am totally suspecting people for being on the Llama bandwagon, because the scummy seats are all but the first one and the hammer. each of those seats is a bit scummy. somewhere in there is a tipping point vote, which actually causes the lynch, and that one is much more or much less scummy based on the flip and situation. also the flip might make early or later votes more scummy, but at the very minimum, every middle seat is a little scummy. you say that this wouldn't hold true for a scum-bandwagon, but it would, because busing happens. so no, i haven't used a town-bandwagon-reviewing-method to check out the llamawagon, i've used a universal-bandwagon-reviewing-method to check it out. it'll works regardless of the flip.

-=-

my favorite dream team scum duo Llama/Tripod. it would be like a big basket with bows and chocolates. Tripod L-1's him with no fear of scum jumping on, then they hate on each other, then they kiss and make up, its a scum love story. and so sweet. probably not true, but it would so totally cool if it was. if one of them flips scum then i'd put this dream into STONE COLD LOGICAL CASE form and see if it held up, but its not important right now.

tldr: wat up CG, argue with me!

[Green Crayons]

@Derangement:

Hmm... Crayons, who do you think is most likely to be the scum team?

I don't know.

I don't do associative analysis until there is a scum flip. It's not worth anyone's time or energy.

[Green Crayons]

@onion:

@GC, 4) ok i'll try again. i am totally suspecting people for being on the Llama bandwagon, because the scummy seats are all but the first one and the hammer. each of those seats is a bit scummy. somewhere in there is a tipping point vote, which actually causes the lynch, and that one is much more or much less scummy based on the flip and situation. also the flip might make early or later votes more scummy, but at the very minimum, every middle seat is a little scummy. you say that this wouldn't hold true for a scum-bandwagon, but it would, because busing happens. so no, i haven't used a town-bandwagon-reviewing-method to check out the llamawagon, i've used a universal-bandwagon-reviewing-method to check it out. it'll works regardless of the flip.

Scum don't treat town-wagons and scum-wagons the same.

I don't believe that you believe the theory "Slots 2-5 on Llama-wagon are suspicious REGARDLESS OF LLAMA'S ALIGNMENT." I think you're having to adopt that position to cover the fact that you already know that Llama is going to flip town, and was treating the Llama-wagon as a wagon on town.

[Green Crayons]

I guess I should do my TTH case, just to put it out there and because ~*~ ego-stroke ~*~, but I really don't have the time and energy for the real deal tonight or, likely, tomorrow.

It's basically I agree with CDB's early suspicions of TTH's play, and then her complete detachment from the game is not the TTH-town I know and love, and therefore I think it might be TTH-scum not wanting to play because it isn't nearly as fun as being town.

[Untrod Tripod]

GC

we are never on the same page

why are we on the same page this game

it's really weirding me out that you're arriving at exactly my reads

[Green Crayons]

Maybe you're right for once.

/burn

[Untrod Tripod]

[Derangement]

@UT:
Would you like to explain what the deciding factor in drastically changing your opinion regarding onion was?

I'm a big fan of your walls. remind me about them if I start voting for you again

I'm no longer certain he's town, but still...

[Untrod Tripod]

oh, thanks for reminding me

I was trying to not get nightkilled

[TellTaleHeart]

It's basically I agree with CDB's early suspicions of TTH's play, and then her complete detachment from the game is not the TTH-town I know and love, and therefore I think it might be TTH-scum not wanting to play because it isn't nearly as fun as being town.

I feel like I have so little to say when most of the things in here get caught in my mental filter.

Also, Anti's not here to entertain me.

For instance, literally everything Llama is hammering on about NJAC, where everyone has the benefit of hindsight and he doesn't want to admit it.

[petroleumjelly]

Day Two, Vote Count #7

LlamaFluff – 2 – TellTaleHeart, onion
Green Crayons – 2 – Derangement, prawneater
onion – 2 – Green Crayons, Untrod Tripod
TellTaleHeart – 1 – LlamaFluff

With

9

alive it takes

5

to lynch and

3

to lynch at deadline. Deadline is

March 22, 2015, at 11:30 PM PST.

Countdown

: (expired on 2015-03-22 23:30:00)

Not Voting – 2 – ChannelDelibird, Equinox

[Equinox]

@equiniox, no this is my 2nd game of mafia for this iteration. there were 4ish back in 2009 but i was dumb back then. i also played in Spies 7, which was ultra mafia and probably the coolest thing ever. 50ish people, subforums, multiple alignments, games and activities, twas very cool.

What would you say differentiates your play in this game from your play in 2009? Also, could you please link me to the Spies 7 game?