Paradise Lost - [Game Over]

[Sakura Hana]

At least that saved me re-reading D3 for a 4th time.

[Sakura Hana]

I was going to run some Sin math, but i think it's better we assume that we must lynch scum from today on.
It's not exactly LyLo tho...
lufan right out the gate sheeping made me feel a bit uneasy, but his explanation makes sense.

[Sakura Hana]

VoteCount 2.5

ArcAngel9

[1] -

Katsuki

farside22 [2] - Glass, grapes
lalaladucks [1] -

massive

Katsuki

[8] - Cho,

Sakura Hana

, Elbirn,

ArcAngel9

, lufan131,

Equinox

, lalaladucks, Albert B. Rampage [LYNCH]

massive

[1] - farside22
Cho [1] -

RedCoyote

Not Voting [1]

-

SXTLHGaiden

With 15 alive it takes 8 to lynch

.

Deadline is May 4, 2015, at 10 AM PST.
Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2015-05-04 12:00:00)

I refuse to believe this wagon is made solely of town.
Cho, Elbirn, lufan, lalaladucks and ABR can't all be town. and i'm townreading the last 3 so...

[Sakura Hana]

If i take my theory that out of 15 players, there's a good chance that a 8 man wagon on town has 2 scum, then this heavily incriminates both Cho and Elbirn.

[Sakura Hana]

Now let's apply that theory here:

VoteCount 1.12

ArcAngel9

[2] -

Katsuki

,

zMuffinMan

Elbirn [3] - Glass, The Bulge, farside22

lufan131 [8] - Elbirn,

Equinox

, grapes,

RedCoyote

, lalaladucks,

Sakura Hana

,

massive

, Albert B. Rampage

Albert B. Rampage [1] - lufan131

massive

[1] -

ArcAngel9

No Lynch [2] -

SXTLHGaiden

,

Tere

Not Voting [0]

-

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch

.

Deadline is April 24, 2015, at Noon PST.
Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2015-04-24 14:00:00)

The wagon's composition is nearly identical, it has 3 conf towns on it, switching massive and Equinox, and RC is on this one, Elbirn is also here.
Elbirn, grapes, lalaladucks, ABR.
While i'm not townreading grapes, don't think this incriminates him, as RC's already a scum on the wagon i'd say there should be >at least< 1 more. Elbirn is further incriminated by the Katsuki lynch, Cho and Elbirn both make good scum candidates. Now what does this mean for grapes, well... it pretty much depends on Elbirn's alignment at this point he's been almost everywhere, and it should provide the most info, however we can't afford any more mistakes, im willing to risk it here. muffin did say before when discussing massive, that it is very likely scum could be bussing while they are certain their scum partner wont be lynched anytime soon and:
Elbirn [3] - Glass, The Bulge, farside22
This is interesting, it's quite possible Bulge (Cho) is busing here.

So in the end conclusion
There's at least 2 scum within Elbirn, Cho, grapes.
i think the chances of either of these 3 flipping scum are pretty good...
UNLESS im wrong about ABR.

[Sakura Hana]

I will however

Unvote

As I don't want scum quick hammering in case im wrong while im not going to be around.

[Elbirn]

For the record, from now on I'm confidently disregarding every post of yours pertaining to VCA/Wagon analysis, because there is literally zero sense to any of it. You're basically looking at every vote count, going "There needs to be at least X number of scum on this wagon because I say so", and calling it evidence. I am quite frankly baffled.

[Elbirn]

If anyone cared, my conclusion regarding Gaiden being the nightkill = He was being townread / Scum wanted me to use that as a reason to keep pushing town-Lala (I come in, see dead Gaiden, "See guys Lala did it again, she killed someone who wanted her lynched!) / there's scum within the 2-sin players, who wanted to use the others as a sort of shield, so they picked a 1-sinner. Said players with 2-sin are Cho, Lufan, LaLa, and ABR.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Said players with 2-sin are Cho, Lufan, LaLa, and ABR.

Try again.

[grapes]

I said that massive was town. We need to look at that wagon today.

Yea you were pretty certain of it too. I wish I could read apathetic lurksacks that well.

Also wagon spec is probably muddied since, ya know, sakura sorta made the massive lynch a done deal early on in the day. So the scum team could have very well just lurked out the day or pushed something else to look busy while town got as much sin as possible. Or they all road a mislynch that was happening for sure anyway. Whichever you think is more likely.

[Glass]

Elbirn, how the hell are you justifying NKA while completely dismissing any form of VCA?

[Elbirn]

Said players with 2-sin are Cho, Lufan, LaLa, and ABR.

Try again.

Minus abr From that list, my bad

[Sakura Hana]

For the record, from now on I'm confidently disregarding every post of yours pertaining to VCA/Wagon analysis, because there is literally zero sense to any of it. You're basically looking at every vote count, going "There needs to be at least X number of scum on this wagon because I say so", and calling it evidence. I am quite frankly baffled.

There's a 1% chance that a wagon on Town has only Towns on it, and personally in my whole mafia experience i've only seen ONE.

[Sakura Hana]

Unless you can point me to full lynch wagons being on town and only composed of towns that has happened very often, I'll take your discredit as claiming scum, since of course, you want to discredit my VCA, not the conclusions drawn from it, since you arent even trying to hunt within such wagons.

Vote: Elbirn

[Sakura Hana]

Inb4 AtP.

[Sakura Hana]

Elbirn, how the hell are you justifying NKA while completely dismissing any form of VCA?

Fun Fact: NKA is WIFOM more often than not, while VCA is harder for scum to WIFOM with it.

Vote count analysis has caught scum more consistently than any other technique I’ve witnessed. It really does work, because no matter how hard the scum try to hide themselves, they’ll leave a trail behind, and no matter how hard they try to avoid being found out by the vote count (it is possible!), trends emerge eventually which are condemning to them. (Sometimes, it’s too late to find those trends, though…)

[lalaladucks]

If anyone cared, my conclusion regarding Gaiden being the nightkill = He was being townread /

Scum wanted me to use that as a reason to keep pushing town-Lala

(I come in, see dead Gaiden, "See guys Lala did it again, she killed someone who wanted her lynched!) / there's scum within the 2-sin players, who wanted to use the others as a sort of shield, so they picked a 1-sinner. Said players with 2-sin are Cho, Lufan, LaLa, and ABR.

What do you mean when you say the bolded? Do you still mistakenly scumread me or no?

[lalaladucks]

Intent to Vote

Guys, can you all please quote this post and say who you intend to vote for instead of just quick voting which could result in catastrophe?

[lufan131]

Intent to Vote

Guys, can you all please quote this post and say who you intend to vote for instead of just quick voting which could result in catastrophe?

... The same guy I'm already voting now, Elbrin.

[lalaladucks]

UNVOTE: Cho

Intent to Vote

Guys, can you all please quote this post and say who you intend to vote for instead of just quick voting which could result in catastrophe?

I intend to vote for

demonCho

~~ but unvoted so there aren't any rash actions

[Sakura Hana]

This is a (not affected by reads / interactions) Wagon analysis, take of this as you will.

WAGON DIVISION #1 VC 1.11 (Unknowns only)

Wagon 1 lufan131 -> Elbirn, grapes, lalaladucks, ABR + 1 Scum + 3 Town.
Wagon 2 Not lufan131 -> Glass, Bulge (Cho), farside, lufan131 + 5 Town.

Conclusion:
At least 1 scum out of Elbirn, grapes, lalaladucks, ABR if lufan's town.
At most 2 scum out of Glass, Bulge Cho, farside, lufan131

WAGON DIVISION #2 The AA9 Flashwagon (UNKNOWNS ONLY)

Wagon 1 ArcAngel9 -> lufan131, Glass, ABR, Elbirn, + 3 Town
Wagon 2 Not ArcAngel9 -> farside, Bulge (Cho), lalaladucks, grapes +1 Scum + 3 Town

Conclusion:
At most 2 scum out of lufan131, Glass, ABR, Elbirn.
At least 1 scum out of farside, Cho, farside

WAGON DIVISION #3 VC 2.5 (UNKNOWNS ONLY)

Wagon 1 Katsuki -> Cho, Elbirn, lufan131, lalaladucks, ABR + 3 Town.
Wagon 2 Not Katsuki -> grapes, Glass, farside + 1 Scum + 3 Town.

Conclusion:
At most 2 scum out of Cho, Elbirn, lufan131, lalaladucks, ABR.
At least 1 scum out of grapes, Glass, farside.

WAGON DIVISION #4 VC 3.3 (UNKNOWNS ONLY)

Wagon 1 RedCoyote -> Cho, farside, lufan, Glass, ABR, Elbirn +1 Town.
Wagon 2 Not RedCoyote -> grapes, lalaladucks + 1 Scum +3 Town.

Conclusion:
I dont know much how to analyze scum lynches, since scum usually just does whatever, one funny thing i found is that im the only conf town in the RC wagon, and it's full of unknowns, which makes it entirely possible the whole scum team can be there, i will go back to this sometime later.
[Cho, farside, lufan, Glass, ABR, Elbirn]
[grapes, lalaladucks]

WAGON DIVISION #5 VC 4.1 (UNKNOWNS ONLY)

Wagon 1 (Voters) -> farside, Cho, lufan, Elbirn, ducks, ABR
Wagon 3 "Not Voting" -> Glass, grapes + 3 Town.

Conclusion:
At most 2 scum in farside, Cho, lufan, Elbirn, ducks, ABR.
At least 1 scum in Glass, grapes.

^ -This is quite an interesting one, which make it even easier to root out the scum once i start to dig deeper into all other wagon dispersions-

WAGON DIVISION #6 VC 4.2 (UNKNOWNS ONLY)

Wagon 1 massive -> farside, lufan, ducks, Cho +1 Town.
Wagon 2 Not massive -> Glass, grapes, ABR, Elbirn +1 Town

Conclusion:
At least 1 scum among farside, lufan, ducks, Cho
At least 1 scum among Glass, grapes, ABR, Elbirn

I think this is a good starting point.

[Cho]

Wow.

Sorry, I just started a new job and didn't bother logging in the past few days. I kind of just assumed I died due to sin count.

I'll read up tonight, need to start a game first.

[Cho]

Actually...

[Cho]

VOTE: Elbirn

Strongest scumread after yesterday. Lynch this please.

[Sakura Hana]

Wow, i may be wrong about Elbirn, but i think i've found a nice gem.

VoteCount 1.4

grapes [1] -

ArcAngel9

ArcAngel9

[4] -

Katsuki

, lufan131, farside22,

massive

Elbirn [4] - Glass,

Equinox

, The Bulge,

Sakura Hana

lufan131 [4] -

RedCoyote

, Elbirn, lalaladucks, Albert B. Rampage

Sakura Hana

[2] - grapes,

zMuffinMan

No Lynch [1] -

SXTLHGaiden

Not Voting [1]

-

Tere

With 17 alive it takes 9 to lynch

.

Deadline is April 24, 2015, at Noon PST.
Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2015-04-24 14:00:00)

If we mix up the 4 voter Wagons we get this split on the unknowns:
[lufan131, Bulge (Cho), farside, Elbirn, lalaladucks, ABR] / [grapes]
guess ing 2/1 (3/1 if you include RC).

Unvote
Vote: grapes

"But Sakura, how did you come to this concnlusion"
Normally when trying to root out scum, you need to mix wagons with equal weight, you'll find that one tiny scum trying to hide voting in a safe spot, which is what grapes was doing here, notice that if i remove all the "4 voter wagons" and all the "conf towns" grapes is the only unknown here.