Micro 474: Over the Garden Wall Mafia (GAME OVER)

[pieguyn]

vote: Nacho

[pieguyn]

on a more serious note, I don't think unnecessarily flavor claiming is a good idea. scum have a flavor-targeted NK, and potentially other abilities that can act on flavor. I'm not sure about this given flavor being public would also allow town to use flavor-targeted abilities without any problems, though.

also, Nacho would be my recruit, full stop

[pieguyn]

Isn't that for scum?

that's what we're talking about

[pieguyn]

I am completed with index II pie

did you enjoy it?

I watched it maybe 2 years ago or so (probably more, idr) and I'm still waiting for index 3. why they do this ;w;

[pieguyn]

Oh yeah. So we policy lynch nacho?

VOTE: nacho

while it's true I'd almost definitely recruit Nacho, I don't support any form of "PL x bc a lot of people would have picked them as scum". my vote on Nacho was entirely an RV.

[pieguyn]

If I recall correctly they just announced index 3

wait, really? oh fuck yes

this is what I get for not paying attention to the latest anime announcements

[pieguyn]

Oh. Oh well. Thought it was going that way

do *you* think it's worth PL'ing Nacho solely on the basis that a lot of ppl would pick him as scum? do you disagree that the recruitment system is subject to a lot of WIFOM re: popular targets and thus that the best course of action is to read ppl individually via play?

[pieguyn]

No idea lol. Nacho has a timer so he will die by lynch or by nk

why did you follow my apparent suggestion to policy lynch Nacho?

Hi.

VOTE: MS

is this serious or random? if serious, why?

[pieguyn]

vote: MS

[pieguyn]

i probably have a townread on actiondan

too early imo. walk me through this?

[pieguyn]

Pie is pinging me and idunno why so talk about ur vote if you may for me please.

his opening felt forced. it felt like he was going out of his way to search for stuff to comment on in order to look useful. namely the Nacho "policy lynch"; it felt like he wanted something surface level town-ish to do and just went along with it for the sake of it as opposed to thinking it'd actually advance the game.

I don't really remember him opening any games like this before - usually he just jokes around or otherwise does nothing early game until he starts getting reads. this isn't that strong a read given it's only page fucking 2, but regardless.

do you disagree?

[pieguyn]

I'm about 99% sure he could post it as either alignment. faking confusion about smth it's publicly known scum has is an easy way to appear as town-ish in some ppl's eyes (it actually strikes me as something he'd specifically go out of his way to do as scum, but I don't feel that strongly about it).

either way when he jokes around early game I don't see it looking like this. he usually just fluff posts about stuff that's not game-relevant.

[pieguyn]

yeah, except in this case you're doing other stuff on top of that that could be sort-of construed as game related when it's really not - which is why I think it's coming off as forced

in all the other games we've had, I don't remember you doing this. you usually don't bother with anything game-related until you have legitimate reads.

[pieguyn]

ok so pieguy is my first townread

anyone else?

what have I done so far this game that I would be less likely to do as scum?

[pieguyn]

my actiondan read is gut based on how he's approached the game thus far and normally wouldn't even be a feeling that hit the thread, but the thread's start wasn't exactly the most exciting.

I actually think we're seeing the same thing here, I just thought his first post by itself was way too early to call him town for it. either way, I don't have any problem with what he's done so far.

this thought processed is fleshed out pretty decently for earlygame, and is a good plan
it makes him less likely to be recruiter
i don't really think anyone in this playerlist would recruit him

I disagree with this, though. part of my plan to recruit you if I wound up rolling scum here involved having to bullshit reasons why I would likely recruit another person or why I wouldn't recruit you in order to get out of it - or if it'd be worth it to truthfully claim I'd recruit you bc of WIFOM - since you'd obviously fall under a lot of scrutiny from it and anyone who knows my play well enough would probably be able to guess I'd recruit you. I would expect other people would plan out how they'd handle it in a similar way.

essentially, I don't think it's a good idea to read anyone based on who they'd recruit or how many ppl would recruit them. Dan's attitude is a better reason to town read him.

Honey bee is town too < strongest townread

y

I am actually quite paranoid of pie after i played against him as scum.
he is quite terrifying when he knows the flavor.

you won't ever let me live that game down, will you :<

[pieguyn]

safe

don't see this either. there's really nothing I'd expect him to go out of his way to do given it's post fucking 12. what did you think was safe about it?


in other news, Nacho looks town.

[pieguyn]

@METAL SONIC:

Honey bee is town too < strongest townread

y

[pieguyn]

I was kind of hoping for a more specific answer than that. is there anything specific that came off as "honest"?

[pieguyn]

Doduo's opinion of MS basically sums up where I'm at.

I don't see any kind of town approach in the way MS is playing this game so far. all of his reads have felt half-hearted - as if he's just making them up - and it feels like he's just posting a fuckton of stuff to look useful without actually putting any thought into the game. in my experience with MS, even his town reads have more to them and are more relevant to what people are actually doing than "xxx is cute".

[pieguyn]

Har the fck? Duduo wasn't in team mafia

VOTE: doduo

how does "doduo wasn't in my game" make him scum? even discounting the fact it was possible (given you knew Marquis was in another game) he was following along with the other team mafia games - why, specifically, do you think him referencing the game you were in is more likely to come from scum than town?

Unvote

I'm seeing the case on MS but it's not enough to push for a lynch there yet. I'm getting a couple of twinges about others but nothing worth mentioning yet as I don't know them well enough to know whether it's significant.

elaborate? it's fine if you don't know whether it's significant or not yet

[pieguyn]

*why* is Bee obvtown and can you walk me through the Doduo read?

I'm not just asking you these questions for no reason.

[pieguyn]

pie

why are you playing so well in here?

?

alchey would have been more engaged/excited about this game at this point in time

i dont see that right now

I've had 1 game with him as scum and he was pretty fucking engaged there. and iirc he prefers scum over town (? correct me if I'm wrong)?

I would like him to do more, but I'm not sure the lack of engagement here means anything and I haven't really had a problem with anything he's posted so far. is this a meta read, or... ?

[pieguyn]

the rest is kind of redeeming, I suppose. I could potentially see myself agreeing on Bee, but I want him to do more first. Doduo's thought process isn't inconsistent; given I don't really intend to read people based on recruiting-related things, I think it makes sense for someone to assume at first you weren't the recruiter and then push you anyway based on play.

there's still a bunch of people who I'd like to see more from -.-

[pieguyn]

but his town game usualy has him figuring out stuff early.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=59178

this is the game I played with Alch as scum. it looked like he was capable of figuring shit out early here. I'm waiting to see more from him as well, but either way, I don't particularly think this is a tell by itself.

doduo is posting garbage lol

and this is coming from me

is this based around the read on you, or something else?

[pieguyn]

I'm looking through it again and I still have no idea what you're seeing here. I think his read on you is a really shit reason for scum reading him (I'm aware you have a lot of experience with each other, but I'm pretty sure I've read you right in every game we've had (?) - so I don't have a problem with him scum reading you for the same reason), and I don't mind the rest of his posts, either.

needless to say this doesn't make him town, but if I scum read him it will likely be for other reasons

[pieguyn]

I smell butthurt

this notsci? you support Marquis' scum read on MS?

like i'm pretty sure you would still make that flavor claim as scum because you have the balls to do so. and i'd imagine in this scum mechanic it'd be a great way to fly in the face of the obvious suspicion if you were scum

disagree. I didn't think about this before, but I don't think he'd go out of his way to claim flavor as scum from a strategic POV for a few reasons: 1. since scum have a flavor NK (which in this case is a strongman kill that can't be affected by anything) it naturally opens up paranoia as to why he's still alive in LYLO, which is something I'm pretty fucking sure he'd want to avoid if possible, 2. there is a nonzero chance there exists a town investigative role that acts on flavor and if he's the only one who's flavor claimed he's the obvious target for it (I'm not sure how strong this is bc I incorrectly townread zmuffin for something like this in a previous game, although in his case it was bc he just didn't think about it).

I thought it also looked town for other reasons, which I don't really want to elaborate on. either way I'm fairly sure this is just Nacho's town game

[pieguyn]

Do you have an example of what you're talking about tho? I haven't gone on a meta crunch yet so these arguments seem distant from me.

MS is known for essentially being a huge derp, and afiact he abuses this as scum to make a bunch of pointless posts and have it all be written off as "lol, derp". I don't have any specific examples of his scum play, but I've loosely followed a few games he was in where he was scum and I generally got that impression off the posts of his that I saw. the 2 most recent town games I had with him were

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=61111 (Endless Possibilities hydra) - he just fluff posts and has fun early game until he starts pushing Om. there were only I think 3 or 4 posts before that, the rest of them were me.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=60046 (mental somnic hydra) - he just ignores everything (and says as much) until he starts getting reads. all the other posts that were about stuff were Om.

it might be difficult to tell individual posts apart bc both of those are hydra games. most of his games he does the former as opposed to lurking the game out, but regardless (I can link more games if you want).

I didn't mind his response to my initial push, but it's not enough to make me drop the scum read by itself. more recently, I don't like his Gaiden read either for the same reason - I don't get the impression he actually believed Gaiden is "conftown" off anything he did, and if he does, he shouldn't go back and immediately think he might be scum for meta reasons. it feels more like he's just coming up with shit for the sake of it without any internal consistency anywhere.

All I've really got so far is a scum read on MS and possibly on Honey bee. I'm going to give Nacho and Alchemist a tentative town read for now for the point that Nacho raised on that, and that Alch queried. They both feel town for that. Everything else seems to be just sparring based on meta. Still getting a slight twinge about Pie from her early posts but can't quite put my finger on it.

elaborate on both of these? (in MS' case, I don't disagree, but I want to know your specific reasoning)

[pieguyn]

someone let me know how good is pie's scumgame

The above seems too good to be true

so when it becomes obvious I still don't think you're town you start claiming my posts are "lol too good to be true".

sounds legit

(also I agree it's odd you're even saying this if you're town here given you're my top scum read)

[pieguyn]

are you fucking kidding me? I don't believe for half a second you actually think that's scummy, or that anything I've done this game required a particularly large amount of effort in the first place.

[pieguyn]

can someone (like you,

@NACHO

) walk me through the Doduo scum reads? while nothing they've done has been a shining paragon of town, I haven't minded anything they've done so far.

[pieguyn]

no, its just paranoia

*which* posts, specifically, are making you think this? cos I'm pretty fucking sure none of my posts this game have been above par in terms of how much effort I've put in - so you thinking this doesn't make sense. it feels more like you're attempting to come up with fake paranoia on me in order to hopefully get me to town read you (or otherwise look town) as opposed to legitimately believing this.

[pieguyn]

FFX AU and Organic Chemistry (http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=56&t=54597) were the 2 games of his I was loosely following. I don't have any direct experience with scum-MS, but that's the impression I got from the posts of his I saw in both of those games.

[pieguyn]

*which* posts

[pieguyn]

nothing that's happening has been changing my reads. I'm pretty sure this is Nacho's town game. there are a bunch of things I look for in Nacho's town game that he can't (or at the very least, hasn't yet) faked as scum and he's done a pretty good job of hitting them so far here. I can attempt to explain this in detail if necessary, but I'd rather not for meta reasons and I find it difficult to articulate in logical terms some of what is making me read him as town.

I'm actually somewhat paranoid about Alch's recent posts, but my feelings there aren't particularly strong and, on reread, I think some of his posts elsewhere look kinda town (namely Gaiden push).

I want to see more content from Lia and AD. while I haven't minded either of what they've posted (and in AD's case have a slight town read on the slot), both of them have done essentially nothing.

[pieguyn]

Specifically, 196 and 197

this response is interesting.

Spoiler:

I did that. I didn't glean a lot from it, because it's pretty obviously one of the first games he played here. It's pretty jam-packed with newbie questions or questions intended to look newbie, which I agree is not the same situation as in this game.

Soren claims he has over 40 games completed. I don't think that's what he was going for there; I think he was just asking as much stuff as he could to look busy and not realizing nothing he was asking had any town motivation.

@Endless Possibilities: Do you think that Soren is typically pretty wishy-washy on his own opinions or generally easily led? Do you have experience of him as town in a completed game? I read this:

Mini 1650: Greatest Idea Mafia

and Soren seemed a lot more forceful in that as town. His questions were much more pointed toward alignment and less busy-seeming. I don't see much other meta, but if you have it, I'll read it.

mm, I looked through this and the first thing I noticed is that in that game, he wasn't following closely at the start of the game (he says this in 268). it's usually easier to step back and take a fully objective view of the game when you already have a body of work of content to go off of, as opposed to seeing everything unfold firsthand.

also in that game, his opening (and his play in general) hardly consisted of any questions, as opposed to him primarily commenting on stuff. it's possible he just took a different approach here, or is having an off game

there's also some other things that I think might be different but haven't looked into it yet: for example, it's possible a lot of people were acting obviously scummy/town in that game, compared to this game which is rather slow (with at least 3 people having practically no content at all). I suppose what I'm saying here is that I don't find a lack of strong scum reads scummy, given my 2nd strongest scum read is fucking Anti just for not doing anything at all besides one somewhat-off-looking push.

besides that, I don't have any experience with town Soren, but I think the differences from his ISO here to the ISO in his scum game are a lot greater than the differences from his ISOs here/this game. I usually don't agree with calling someone scum because of minor differences to their town game, in no small part because I used to (and still am, to some extent) be known for being extremely obvious town as town and I would have that pushed on me a lot whenever I did so much as one thing that was different from any of my town games. this is moreso my method of reading people so make of it what you will.

I didn't like this because Antihero hasn't actually posted much in this game. No one has explained their vote on him very well. His vote is on LucianRoy, whom Soren was voting earlier for "meta" reasons that apparently both of them now agree were not very strong. LucianRoy is clearly not immune to OMGUS since he is scumreading two people currently on his wagon and one who was; it seems a little out of place for him to resolutely resist the same OMGUS urge where Soren is concerned.

I'm still not particularly seeing why this is scummy, explicitly because Anti hasn't posted much. it makes sense to poke at a lurker in order to get them to do shit. there were better questions he could have asked, but I could easily enough see it coming from town.

LR had also declared a town read on me after I started pushing on him (although I never voted him) so I'm not sure what to make of the second point. either way, I don't really think it makes sense as a scum strategy to OMGUS every town player who pressures you, so I don't think it makes sense him not OMGUS'ing Soren would be indicative of Soren scum, either.

This was interesting because I was voting LucianRoy at the time. It's like Soren is only interested in asking questions among the people who were voting LucianRoy. Soren also says he just wanted to see what I would say -- again, not owning the suspicion that is pretty clear in the question imo.

It's not just the questions for me, though I watch for that more since Farside pointed out it is one of her scumhunting tools. (Yes, I shamelessly borrow from other players.) Soren hasn't had any strong views -- in fact, he sheeped me onto LucianRoy and then immediately backed off his own vote without unvoting.

IMO a lack of strong stances isn't particularly scummy. it's either indicative of scum who don't want to fake reads, or town who legitimately don't have any reads and don't see it fit to pretend like they have reads that they really don't. what I find scummy is when people act like they have strong stances, but then don't actually do anything to follow through with them (ex. Aris WK'ing a lot of people who are under pressure but not doing anything to explain why).

in Soren's case, I think it's plausible enough he just doesn't have any strong reads yet. he's either scum who made a push and then didn't feel like continuing with it, or he's town telling the truth about not having a strong read on you and backed off for exactly the reason he said - that he asked the question to see what you would say as opposed to feeling strongly you were scum. either way, I don't think it's inconsistent.

one thing that I noticed when I played with him as scum was that there were basically no stances *at all*, which is kind of similar. I suppose it's not too unreasonable he's stepped up his game as scum to some extent and is more capable of taking stances but is not yet comfortable faking the strong pushes he made in his town game. however, I still think there's more stuff that points to him being town.

^ this was a post FROM MY LATEST TOWN GAME WITH MS. he was in THIS HYDRA with me for this game.

his angle here is that he's paranoid of me bc I'm supposedly making long/effortful posts early in the game. this is blatantly disingenuous. while long posts are not a tell either way for me, he has directly seen that it's something I do as town and that I'm more than capable of walling early game if I want to elaborate on or deconstruct posts in depth.

so him thinking I might be scum for it doesn't make any sense. I think he's going for a fake paranoia angle here, as in he pretends to be paranoid of someone bc ppl will hopefully see it and think something along the lines of "look at that paranoia, so town".

I'm aware this is supposedly just paranoia, but regardless, it doesn't make sense from a town POV. he knows it's not a scum tell yet supposedly is pushing it as one anyway.

If there's any indication he's scum from the way he's reacting to pie's posts, it's that it's easy to call Town Town and he knows this, and he's being pretty liberal with handing out the confTown statuses.

except this isn't what he's doing. what he's doing is calling me town, but then going back and saying he's paranoid of me for supposedly making long posts. that isn't committing to a town read on me.

rather than an actual town reaction - such as deconstructing my posts and trying to show me why he's not scum (which in this case is something I think he should be particularly likely to do here bc we have a pretty long history with each other), or committing to a firm read on me either way - we're seeing him do the "fake paranoia and start second guessing myself" routine.

[pieguyn]

what do you think of doduo?

town?

I have some markers for what I look for in Marquis' scum game and I haven't been seeing them here, although I haven't thought anything specific they did was extremely town. notsci's posting so far is not telling either way (I have no intention of town reading him solely bc "engagement = town"). I still haven't minded their posts nor do I think "their read on me" is a good reason for scum reading them.

[pieguyn]

show me what you've done this game that comes from a town mindset
explain how my posts are so great when if you're town I've been blatantly wrong all game
explain your read on Gaiden and why you went from him being "conftown" to him being possibly scum so quickly
etc.

[pieguyn]

Lol when the heck did I have gaiden as possible scum so quickly?? Pretty sure I'm townreading him the whole time

true on that fact, i remember gaiden as the most useless lurker around


maybe he jus got a good role

this seemed to imply you were open to the possibility of Gaiden being scum. I'm asking how this makes sense when you had just said he was "conftown" - it felt more like you were just agreeing for the sake of it as opposed to actually believing it

You are not wrong until you lynch me <3


There is always hope bae

even if I suddenly start thinking you're town, how does that change the fact that all my posting *up to* that point would have been blatantly wrong?

[pieguyn]

literally everything probably

this doesn't answer my question :/

as I said, I'm not just asking this for no reason

[pieguyn]

Is there a way of telling which posts come from one and which from the other? I'm guessing the majority are ns but it's not clear.

marquis uses all lowercase (except for ALLCAPS)
there are some exceptions to this but you can usually tell based on the timestamps

How often has MS seen you make long posts as Town? If that was the only time I could see him forgetting you could do that.

On the other hand, what he's doing with his Townread on you sounds like what he's doing with his Nacho read too.

On a scale of 1-10, how confident are you that

A) Nacho is Town?

B) MS is scum?

I'm fairly sure he knows that I usually put effort into games as town and can write extremely long posts when I want to deconstruct/respond to posts in-depth. I'm not sure if there was another instance where I specifically wrote a long post that early in the game, but due to the first sentence I would assume he would know it's not out of place for me.

I don't really like ranking ppl based on numbers like that , but if I had to answer: 9 for Nacho-town (the only thing giving me pause is that he keeps going inactive, but he does this as town and what he did while he *was* here was strongly town enough that I don't really have a problem with it), 8 or so for MS-scum (bc he's blatantly BS'ing here. the only thing giving me pause here is, as you said, the possibility that he is actually this much of a derp and went amnesic recently - but while he can be a derp as town, it's never this fucking ridiculous).

[pieguyn]

nacho is town

[pieguyn]

MS is still scum

[pieguyn]

*if* MS can't happen, Lia is the best shot at hitting scum

we're not fucking lynching Nacho. I'm about to pass out any second now so I can't elaborate on why in-depth, but this is his town game and there is nothing scummy about his recent posts.

[pieguyn]

holy shit pie I just reached out to you already I have. No fucking idea what I must do to get you to change now

Stop the act

I saw it. I don't have enough time at this point to break it down in depth, but nothing there was convincing.

[pieguyn]

this nacho wagon is fucking shit

this is fucking dumb bc I will likely pass out in a few minutes and I have no fucking idea who is available to switch their votes

[pieguyn]

doduo is online, right?

I wish I knew if either of {Bee, Nacho} would be online before deadline. -.-

[pieguyn]

this is fucking dumb

vote: Lia

[pieguyn]

NOTSCIENCE I SEE YOU ONLINE GET IN HERE AND VOTE LIA PLZ AND THX

[pieguyn]

what I'm getting from this is that deadline scrambles are fucking shit

we can't fucking let this happen tomorrow even if Lia flips scum here

[pieguyn]

also, in case it's not obvious, I won't be around at deadline

I'm about to pass out any second now. night

[pieguyn]

vote MS

[pieguyn]

more substantive post later bc I'm about to pass out any second now, but I think Lia is scum.

[pieguyn]

no don't do this please. Doduo is town.

[pieguyn]

in general, I don't like the way Lia handled the MS wagon.

she kept saying she was OK with lynching him and that she was seeing the case on him, but then kept searching for reasons to stay off the wagon. when she *did* have a concrete reason for MS being town (356), she did nothing to convince other people of it or actually explain why she thought it was town. I don't think she really cared about sorting MS here - it looked more like was just preparing to look better after MS flipped town.

her agreeing with the angle that Doduo is deliberately obfuscating heads is one thing that specifically makes me think this - I don't really think someone would actually find smth like that convincing.

Doduo is town bc of Marquis' play. I alluded to this earlier, but when Marquis is scum he usually relies on mass amounts of ATE and playing up how "emotional/genuine" he is in order to make ppl not realize he's not actually game solving. this isn't what he's doing here. his posting at DL is another thing that made me think he was likely town - his thoughts on Lia matched mine as I was reading through it, and his push on Nacho made sense even though I disagree with it.

[pieguyn]

vote: Lia

[pieguyn]

They only started attacking me after this. It looks like they, or one of them, were catching up on page 16 then in 400 they started pushing for my lynch seemingly for the sole reason that I thought that they were making it difficult to read them.

except this is quite obviously not why they were pushing for your lynch. first off, both Marquis and notsci had said (416/426) that it was not about you pushing this but specifically the *way* in which you did it - that it felt more like you were just attempting to follow along with what MS was saying as opposed to pushing it yourself. second, Marquis cited (430) 356 as a reason for pushing you as scum - likely for the same reason I am (that it didn't feel like you *actually* wanted to do anything to shut down the pressure on MS here).

Only once did I say I was still ok with lynching MS after my scumread on him weakened and that was in 334, which was before I got a townread on him from 348, so to claim that I kept saying that is wrong. The claim that I kept searching for reasons to stay off the wagon is also wrong. My reason, that I didn't want to put him at L-1, remained the same while I was still scumreading him. If you'd wanted to know why I thought 348 was town you could have asked me but you didn't.

the entire point is that over the course of the game you did a lot to further the MS lynch, but didn't do anything to stop it once you supposedly had a town read on him

it doesn't matter why, specifically, you were reading 348 as town (although I can't say I'd mind if you justified it). what I'm saying is that, sans saying 348 was town, there was no further elaboration beyond that re: *why*, specifically, it was town.

fully explaining why you're town reading someone is a natural first step in attempting to push a town read/derail a lynch, but you didn't do this - it felt more like you were just giving a bullshit throwaway reason for MS being town in order to look better after he flipped

I wasn't "convinced" by that because I was already thinking that due to their refusal to clarify who was posting what.

what I was saying is that I would not expect anyone to actually think this is a good argument

I could break down specifically why but there's not much of a point. I'm more interested in specifically what strategic benefit you think there is for scum hydras obfuscating posts and how it applies to Doduo in this game (especially when you had outright said you had figured out how to tell who was posting what anyway).

[pieguyn]

I don't think his scum game is that simple but i want to figure out some info after that mess of a day. Their recent activity confuses me.

I'm pretty sure this is what he does in all of his scum games. the specific way he goes about it is different from game to game (the most recent game he acted lost all game and played up how apathetic he was and how he didn't have any reads, the game before that he basically did nothing the entire latter half of the game besides making 1 wall post every 2 days trying to look as genuine as possible), but there's the same pattern of emotional posting there.

Where did your vote on me go?

this is probably not alignment indicative for reasons I will not elaborate on unless it's convenient for me.

[pieguyn]

What were the reasons you were townreading Bee initially?

at that point it was entirely gut based on the way he was questioning me, I thought it looked somewhat genuine. after that the rest of his content looked town enough that I didn't have a problem with it.

Why?

primarily bc of him switching off Gaiden and pushing you instead - part of me thought he saw the Gaiden push not going anywhere and MS still being a lead wagon and deciding to try out a different counterwagon to see where it'd go. it's obviously a moot point now, though.

the push on Gaiden itself I thought looked town half for the not-so-serious way he went about it (this is kind of biased bc in his scum game I remember he didn't really post like that whereas he did in his town game. either way it's not that strong of a tell) and half bc I thought what he was picking up on made sense for someone to think even though I didn't agree with it.

[pieguyn]

It's not something I've observed at least and it's not really something I believe will always try. What posts do you see here do you think can't come from his scum game?

it's not so much "these posts can't come from scum", it's that on a general level I feel the way he's approached most things in this game looks more like his town game than his scum game

as one example, the MS push. this is almost entirely gut, but the way he went about it didn't really feel manipulative. it felt a lot more natural and less like he was trying to look good off it or like he cared about his image, so to speak.

as another example, most of what he did at deadline - rather than lurking through it or sitting on the sidelines, there's a lot of activity, engagement, and you can tell he's trying to figure shit out. there's a lot of gut involved here but I didn't get the impression he cared about how he was coming across or trying to push an agenda with any of it. I wouldn't expect him to be engaged in the way that he was if he was scum here. from less of a meta standpoint, his thoughts on Lia at the end of D1 aligned with mine fairly closely and his thoughts on Nacho made sense to me even though I disagree with them.

Part of the reason for not elaborating on it was because it was a gut read. The post felt town. The rest was due to lack of time. But there is good stuff in that post. What do you think about what MS said about Doduo there?

them "not having reads on other players" is still a bad reason for scum reading them

it happened in this case bc they felt strongly MS was scum (similarly to me) and didn't see a need to form strong reads on other players or further engage him over it

[pieguyn]

is there any reason we're continuing to drag the day out again? there's basically nothing going on here.

[pieguyn]

Getting away with an easy mislynch at a deadline scramble with another one set up tomorrow feels like an agenda to me. The thing that's bothering me right now is that there's a clear disconnect with marquis's case against lia (which was dependent on ms being town) and notty's switch. And whatever that engagement at deadline was it's clearly gone now.

I can think of a possible explanation for this but I wanna hear what Doduo says first. re: engagement, I don't think it means anything given there's only been 2 fucking pages this game day with basically nothing going on - I can't really fault them for it bc everyone (me included) is fairly checked out at this point.

[pieguyn]

massclaim

also I'm not gonna lie, I thought Nacho could be scum based on the no lynch yesterday. -.-

[pieguyn]

How do you know whether they actually felt that way rather than just giving that appearance?

I don't; rather, I'm saying this is the town explanation for how they handled the MS push.

What bothers me about this is that you usually reply to everything addressed to you, but when MS wrote 348, 349, 350, 353 and 354 you completely ignored him; and when he called you on it you just gave him the brush off (462).

by the time I had a chance to do anything it was almost deadline. *if* we had more time to talk about it, I would have responded to it in full - but at that point since there were only a few hours left and we weren't making any progress doing so would just be wasting time. it was more important to figure out who to lynch/consolidate

[pieguyn]

I currently think Bee and Doduo are town. I *think* Alch might be town but I'm not sure about it.

as it stands, barring results from massclaim, I will likely vote Lia, but I'm going to do some rereading

[pieguyn]

wait a minute I completely missed gaiden was an IC. LOL

in that case that leaves Lia + Alch, but as I said, want to reread first

[pieguyn]

my role could potentially be useful if we have flavor claims today. it's not absolutely necessary in this particular scenario, though.

[pieguyn]

partly the slant she was putting on some of my posts - for example, see my response in 560 to her 549

btw I still stand by my assessment of your posts, I just stopped responding bc I didn't think it was necessary at that point (I figured it was unlikely you wouldn't get lynched).

I haven't really had a chance to reread much, but I'll break down why in-depth sometime later if it's still relevant.

(also obv we shouldn't bother flavor claiming if we're not going to do a full massclaim)

[pieguyn]

sorry, my RL has been really fucking shit recently. family drama sucks.

to clarify, I support a massclaim but it's not necessary to force one if anyone doesn't want to claim yet

[pieguyn]

I'm the one who blocked alch; I'm a modified roleblocker (it's anti-town for me to claim exact specifics). it's flavor targeted, not player targeted.

I have a passive ability where at the end of each phase I learn which flavors targeted me. D1 and N1, I didn't get anything; D2 Kagami told me she made a mod error and that I was targeted by *Alch's flavor* on D1. N2 I didn't get anything.

N1 I wanted to block Lia, so I took a shot in the dark at one of the chapter 1 flavors. I missed, though.
N2 I blocked *Alch's flavor* bc 1. I didn't want to waste it again and figured it'd be better if I could be guaranteed to get one use of it off, 2. I figured it was likely he wouldn't have any other active abilities, so this wouldn't fuck anything up if he was town whereas it would have a chance to be beneficial on the off chance I was wrong and he was scum.

this is why I asked for flavor claims earlier. my role is inherently broken as shit if we lynch scum today and we know who has what flavor. it's not necessary though given I already know what Alch's flavor is and could clear/condemn him at the least anyway.

[pieguyn]

@ Pie: Why would you want to prevent Alch using his neighbourise on day 3?

it wouldn't? Alch's neighborize is a day action, my roleblock is a night action. I can also say my roleblock sends a message informing my target that they were blocked by *my flavor* (don't really see a reason not to claim this; there are other aspects of it that it's anti-town to claim).

actually you know what, now that I type this out I realize this is all rather pointless since even if Alch is scum here scum's flavor kill can't be roleblocked. so fuck that.

[pieguyn]

I'm pretty ok with a no lynch today given we've got basically nowhere. I currently think {Lia, Alch} is the most likely scum team, but am willing to save discussing it for tomorrow.

Doduo and Lia should claim before day ends at the least just so we don't waste a shitton of time waiting around again tomorrow.

[pieguyn]

I think the only one I'd be prepared to lynch at the moment would be Doduo. Marquis has posted more than 20 times elsewhere since Doduo's last post here, including several long posts, so I'm suspicious of why they're choosing not to give priority to a game so close to deadline.

are you fucking kidding me

[pieguyn]

I'm seeing inconsistencies there with part of my role but it may be they weren't intended to be consistent in the first place. I will claim after Doduo but not before them. Honey bee's 624 feels town so I'm happy to let her decide whether to claim after we've done so.

what feels town about it? (I think I know why you're calling it town, I'm just asking to be sure first.)

[pieguyn]

more substantive post later, but a few quick questions:

I don't know. I thought it was Pie, as I said earlier, but now I'm thinking it's more likely to be you. And I'm not ruling out HB but that feels less likely.

what prompted this change, and do you still feel this way?

You say this, then when you realise it was Pie that did the blocking you change your tune. Why?

where were you going with this (as in, what did you think this was indicative of when asking it)? were you thinking it made Alch scum, or Alch/me partners, or something else entirely?

[pieguyn]

honey bee/Doduo is the only scum team I've been able to rule out so far. I haven't seen Bee's push on Doduo throughout the game as a bus; I also don't really know if Bee suddenly claims yesterday he doesn't want to lynch Doduo for *magical reasons* after bussing them the majority of the game if they were partners.

I'd like to see if Alch has reasons for Bee being scum based on play. I don't really agree the way the wagons were D2 makes Bee/Lia scum (Bee was on Doduo before the Lia wagon happened, so it doesn't make sense it was intended as a counterwagon; he pointed this out in the neighbor PT a while back and I think it's correct) and I haven't seen much in Bee's play pointing to him being scum.

Doduo/Lia need to claim ASAP.

[pieguyn]

hai ffery

[pieguyn]

game mechanics and gamebreaking aren't were my mafia strengths lie, so I'd like for one of you - Pieguy? - to walk me through why nolynch seemed like a good idea yesterday. I'm going to catch up on this game day and then read the neighborhood and see if any of this changes my thoughts about this game.

I'm pretty sure there was no reason. it happened bc everyone was too inactive to decide on an informed lynch until it was too late.

I still think alchemist and Lia are most likely scum.

this is where I'm at as well.

the only question mark I really have is why Alch wouldn't have just voted Doduo instead of Gaiden D2 if saving Lia was his goal. but, I've seen weirder shit than that (sthar in 13p).

[pieguyn]

I can hazard a guess as to what happened but I'll wait for Doduo to answer.

[pieguyn]

I"m waiting for doduo but I'm also waiting for pieguyn. I particularly want his thoughts about the neighborhood stuff I posted about yesterday.

I don't see what you think looked town about his reaction, especially if his goal was to paint you as scum in accordance with a pre-determined read (that's not to say I think this is explicitly more likely - just I could easily enough see him-scum doing this). that said, I don't think him asking us to 1v1 in the PT was an odd request either. first off, if Alch-scum wanted to try to get me/Bee to be paranoid of each other, there would almost certainly be better ways of going about it than straight-up asking us "hey guys, 1v1". second, I thought his reasoning for it made sense - a majority of people don't realize that there's usually no benefit in specifically posting things in a neighborhood without posting it in the game thread.

I think if he is scum here, he was just attempting to play his role in the same way he thought he would have as town. I'd like if you could walk me through what you're seeing here.

most of my rereading up to this point has just confirmed what I've already thought. I think your slot is town, I *think* Doduo is more likely town than scum (even though their recent play has been fucking shit), Lia/Alch appears to make the most sense from an interactions POV (and the majority of people seem to agree on one or both of these reads).

[pieguyn]

What I'm seeing about, and from, Alchemist over the last couple of pages is firming up my scum read on him. I particularly didn't like 735. He hasn't really tried to sort Doduo all game and from that post it seems he is content to let them slip by in lylo when we should be reconsidering all reads.

this, on the other hand, is a good point. usually if you're waiting for someone *in LYLO* and they don't show up, you don't just say "meh, oh well, I'll just drop it".

[pieguyn]

although now that I think about it it works with Alch-scum Doduo-town as easily as it does with Alch/Doduo scumteam. either way, it's scummy in it's own right.

[pieguyn]

VOTE: Lia

I'm betting the game on Lia/Bee. Apologies in advance if I'm wrong.

any reason in particular you chose Lia over Bee/ffery?

[pieguyn]

vote: Lia

[pieguyn]

ya-tta~

GG all and thx for the game Kagami. I missed being scum with you Marquis ;`)

[pieguyn]

gg and congrats. pie, I was starting to suspect you but was a looooong way from calling you scum.

I'm pretty sure my heart almost stopped when you replaced into the game. I was like "FUCK" bc we were in a really good position. it subsided after you finished catching up and wound up missing both of us. I was really worried you'd be suspicious of the way I was playing this LYLO.

props to you for replacing in at this situation btw. it was frustrating even for _me_ that no one was doing anything and I was scum. I can't imagine how bad it must have been for a town player.

[pieguyn]

The way pie townread doduo for day 1 kept bugging me. I had them down in my "I hate their day 1 play" pile on day 1, and then changed my mind based on pie's read during my readthrough of day 2 and the neighborhood. And I pushed back some early suspicion of pie because I thought Nacho's townread made a lot of sense.

lolololololol ololol ollololl lololol

HARD DEFEND STRAT SUCCESS ~

I really didn't know what I was going to do if anyone suspected Doduo coming into this. I was prepared to write a bunch of walls analyzing all the interactions among {Alch, Lia, Doduo} if I needed to since I was pretty sure I would have been able to push any of them as a viable scum team. I was actually considering doing it last (RL) night but I was way too tired and didn't feel like it :<

[pieguyn]

I thought the setup was fine. it just wound up being that town kept screwing it up and weren't able to take advantage of most of the extra things the setup provided - no one was turned into an Edelwood tree, and there were a bunch of random flavor claims that really benefited us. plus there was way too much apathy. Lia had really accurate reads but then it didn't even matter cos the massive amount of town apathy made it impossible for her to lynch any of them :<

[pieguyn]

it doesn't look like it's been released yet. I'm fine with releasing it btw.