Micro 488: Forest Fire - Endgame

[sangres]

5. The problems with Yuriko's posting were and are obvious. I was looking in other directions.

This isn't a position I'd expect you to take.

[YurikoJasmine]

I think BBM + Soft-Spoken/ Gold Saucer is scum.

[YurikoJasmine]

Soft-Spoken > Gold Saucer in scumminess I think

[Gentlemen Bastards]

Still fairly confident Yuriko is scum (Molla has little reason to CC, doing so still leaves scum in a ridiculously uphill position and given he was town-read by the entirely of the room he's got no reason to piss away that town-read like this as scum) - do want to see what Empire makes of her recent posts when he gets up.

@Bork -

Sorry if I seemed aggressive last night, just annoyed when people haven't really read my posts properly and then try to say they can't understand my reads because I've never stated X when I have multiple times. Still urge you to talk with Tammy about us though, also would like your hydras updated read/thoughts on Quilford and Pie - I'm happy to wait until tomorrow though; it's not exactly relevant for today and we'll all be here tomorrow.

@Nacho -

We're pretty much in a position where we're super confident that Soft/Tammybork/You are town and that the scum therefore is inside Muffin (I still lean town on him and there's some interaction stuff that makes him more likely town if Yurikos scum which I think is the case right now; her comments about him being a PGO repetitively for instance) leaving scum inside of Quilford and Pie and yes I do lean moreso Pie than Quilford at the moment but I don't town-read Quilford at all? I've explained the issues I've had with Quilfords play; problem is I have slightly more with Pies at the moment (The comment you quoted about Pie not replacing out is something I'd have agreed is a town-tell in the past but in the last 6 months I've seen 5+ players as scum fake-considering or actually fake-replacing out to then take the slot back as a strategic ploy to be town read so it's not something I really want to read much into). What really would help is your big explanation behind your town read on him, the more you elaborate on the better chance you have of convincing me it's not Pie and therefore it's Quilford.

[Soft-spoken]

i just did the math and its actually CCing the FF and winning the cc is not a bad position for scum to be in if molla was scum and quil wasnt.


but thats just paranoia speaking.


yuriko is coming out with some rather strange fos's (me/gold) that arnt substantiated.

[Soft-spoken]

in fact yuriko was right from the getgo... this is a rather scumsided setup.

its going to give me a stroke trying to explain it all, but i dont think thats necessary.

[Soft-spoken]

maybe not overall scumsided... lets say swingy. if town has unlynchables, scum has perfect priming targets and wont misplay any night whatsoever... especially with FF dead... sp basically if yuriko is town and we lynch her its a 4v1 with no clears mechanically d3

[Soft-spoken]

in other words. we have 1 mislynch and no claimable roles unless mafia primes someone who is later lynched.

[Soft-spoken]

yuriko if you are town you really need to try harder here. you WILL be hammered 99%

[Soft-spoken]

2015-06-27 17:01:08 -4.00

[Soft-spoken]

(expired on 2015-06-27 17:01:08)

[sangres]

Softspoken, if Yuriko is scum, who do you see as possible partners atm?

[sangres]

problem is I have slightly more with Pies at the moment (The comment you quoted about Pie not replacing out is something I'd have agreed is a town-tell in the past but in the last 6 months I've seen 5+ players as scum fake-considering or actually fake-replacing out to then take the slot back as a strategic ploy to be town read so it's not something I really want to read much into).

The fake replace-out I don't give a shit about, the specific town tell I'm talking about is how she's reacting to the lost townread. She stated, in no uncertain terms, that our townread of her, that us understanding her play, was the only reason she could continue playing this game while going through shit in RL, which is very very strong emotional manipulation if scum.

[sangres]

This is likely going to be a long series of posts, I'm typing and thinking and whenever I do that I get paranoid I'm going to lose shit.

Pieguyn:

First of all, I want to establish the type of mindset pieguyn likely had during the game if he was scum because you had some preconception that Pieguyn would be taking huge risks and breaking out the last resorts

immediately

, which I very strongly feel is not the case and wouldn't have happened. When people are intimidated and facing scary fucking odds, the very first thing they do is not put everything on their line and go batshit insane; there are a good number of mental obstacles to jump over first. I've never seen scum or been scum facing ridiculous odds at the beginning of the game and then seen that scum commence to do a bunch of things they've never done before. It sounds absolutely lovely in theory, yes. Very very rarely happens in real life. I'd also like to establish that Pieguyn had shit going on in RL during the entirety of this game and has generally been pretty fucking busy, which makes it even less likely that he's bringing out all these new tools to play with.

Now, keeping that in mind, look at this:

Also, pieguy is probably scum.

how'd you figure it out?

This is the first time that pieguyn has ever jokeclaimed scum. Breaking out of the comfort zone, taking risks out of the gate is already a little bit impressive, especially in a situation like this where he doesn't have to say jack shit about it and no one has any reasonable pushes to make on it. This is significant to me because town-pie making this joke really isn't that big of a deal and barely carries significance, but it carries quite a bit for scumpie.

GB is scum, or at the very least their push on me is one of the most awful things I think I've ever seen. I haven't been fond of their other posts, either. more elaboration on this incoming.

This post, on page 4 (or 5, or whatever), is a significant risk. This post is a big play very very very very early in the game when it doesn't make any sense at all for it to be a big play. You can tell me that she was intimidated by the playerlist, fine. That doesn't mean that she has this strong of a reaction and railroads herself into this type of position early. Muffin brings up that getting into a fight at the beginning is a pretty solid scumtactic that he has to use, and I agree completely, but the reason I haven't used this type of scumtactic often is because of the difficulty in finding the proper openings and the problems with bullshitting a push like this in a strong playerlist on page 4.

I also haven't seen scumplay from pie that demonstrates or even implies that she's willing to take risks like this. Sure, I've seen her play good scumgames, but I haven't seen her do anything unconventional; she tries to sound genuine, she tries to make sense. So, in order for her to be scum here, not only is she taking specific actions that she's never tried before, but she's somehow changed how she approaches scum completely in a situation where she's stressed in real life and under serious pressure in game when experience shows time and time again that people drown under pressure.

As for 112 itself, the mistake she was making was holding you to an unreasonable standard and expecting you to be a bigger fish than you are, which is fine, celebrities seem very very large for us peons sitting in the seats. The points themselves?

1) Your Bork townread was too strong.
I agree that your Bork townread was too strong. Bork, in person and on forum, has one of the most natural scumgames I've seen because of how well his personality meshes with mafia as a game. He approaches the game in the way where it feels like he's taking it apart, but he

can

and does fake it very effortlessly as scum. The part that is unreasonable is Pie expecting you to know better, which I don't think is unreasonable because of the whole celebrity thing.

2) Your Yuriko scumread.
Also in agreement here, don't think Yuriko having incorrect reads on setup is actually scummy. It's a valid route to argue that it was scummy she speculated on the setup and did nothing else, but the "wrong = scum" fallacy is usually how scum push through mislynches, so you pushing this point on the easiest target in the playerlist is a perfectly reasonable thing to scumread.

3) The online argument.
Pie was annoyed he was pinged on activity tells when he wasn't doing an activity tell thing. I fucking hate activity tells. There is a correlation to posting and alignment in certain situations, hell yes. But it still occasionally gets under my skin when people incorrectly accuse me of scumlurking or posting elsewhere or shit like that because there's not really a way to defend that most days without site rules or lecturing about my life and all of the hardships in my life. Contextually, your argument was also pretty shitty, since pie was posting in discussion threads and not in games and usually people see if the posting elsewhere bits are substantial as opposed to seeing if they're just posting elsewhere.

voting me is pretty fucking obviously a push. this is even more so the case when you have had said vote on me for the entire game and have continually laid out additional reasons for me being scum over the course of the game. so, how is that not constituted a "push"?

Your problem with this is that it wasn't a push, but your language was strong, and, if pie is expecting you to be the mafia celebrity you're rumored to be, strong language is very easily push. The only motivation pie has as scum for calling it a push is to make her attack on you back more believable as "attacked townie responding", but it seems incredibly unlikely that pie really wanted to attack you THAT badly. Even if his tactic was to look really town by flipping out on the first person that attacked you, there was no reason she needed to force it in that particular situation and no reason she would want to.

the ffery town read is entirely about her confidence. this probably sounds really dumb but that's how I always read her and it's always been right, so it works for me. I don't think she'd immediately jump in and push Empire first thing in the game if she was scum here for this reason (it would be a more bold move than what I'm used to from her).

As I've talked about before, this felt town because on paper, they're not great reasons to townread someone. But they do have a pretty good basis in reality (I find myself noticing the confidence very very specifically), and while this isn't exactly the most compelling reasons because I'd expect Pie to read us correctly here regardless of her alignment, the way it unfolded was a minor townread. I also like how here and in her Yuriko read she forms reads and then has trouble explaining said reads afterwards. I think this is something more likely to happen as scum than town (or at least it is for me). Whenever I form a read as scum and don'

[YurikoJasmine]

i just did the math and its actually CCing the FF and winning the cc is not a bad position for scum to be in if molla was scum and quil wasnt.


but thats just paranoia speaking.


yuriko is coming out with some rather strange fos's (me/gold) that arnt substantiated.

Why are my FoS strange?

[sangres]

This is likely going to be a long series of posts, I'm typing and thinking and whenever I do that I get paranoid I'm going to lose shit.

Pieguyn:

First of all, I want to establish the type of mindset pieguyn likely had during the game if he was scum because you had some preconception that Pieguyn would be taking huge risks and breaking out the last resorts

immediately

, which I very strongly feel is not the case and wouldn't have happened. When people are intimidated and facing scary fucking odds, the very first thing they do is not put everything on their line and go batshit insane; there are a good number of mental obstacles to jump over first. I've never seen scum or been scum facing ridiculous odds at the beginning of the game and then seen that scum commence to do a bunch of things they've never done before. It sounds absolutely lovely in theory, yes. Very very rarely happens in real life. I'd also like to establish that Pieguyn had shit going on in RL during the entirety of this game and has generally been pretty fucking busy, which makes it even less likely that he's bringing out all these new tools to play with.

Now, keeping that in mind, look at this:

Also, pieguy is probably scum.

how'd you figure it out?

This is the first time that pieguyn has ever jokeclaimed scum. Breaking out of the comfort zone, taking risks out of the gate is already a little bit impressive, especially in a situation like this where he doesn't have to say jack shit about it and no one has any reasonable pushes to make on it. This is significant to me because town-pie making this joke really isn't that big of a deal and barely carries significance, but it carries quite a bit for scumpie.

GB is scum, or at the very least their push on me is one of the most awful things I think I've ever seen. I haven't been fond of their other posts, either. more elaboration on this incoming.

This post, on page 4 (or 5, or whatever), is a significant risk. This post is a big play very very very very early in the game when it doesn't make any sense at all for it to be a big play. You can tell me that she was intimidated by the playerlist, fine. That doesn't mean that she has this strong of a reaction and railroads herself into this type of position early. Muffin brings up that getting into a fight at the beginning is a pretty solid scumtactic that he has to use, and I agree completely, but the reason I haven't used this type of scumtactic often is because of the difficulty in finding the proper openings and the problems with bullshitting a push like this in a strong playerlist on page 4.

I also haven't seen scumplay from pie that demonstrates or even implies that she's willing to take risks like this. Sure, I've seen her play good scumgames, but I haven't seen her do anything unconventional; she tries to sound genuine, she tries to make sense. So, in order for her to be scum here, not only is she taking specific actions that she's never tried before, but she's somehow changed how she approaches scum completely in a situation where she's stressed in real life and under serious pressure in game when experience shows time and time again that people drown under pressure.

As for 112 itself, the mistake she was making was holding you to an unreasonable standard and expecting you to be a bigger fish than you are, which is fine, celebrities seem very very large for us peons sitting in the seats. The points themselves?

1) Your Bork townread was too strong.
I agree that your Bork townread was too strong. Bork, in person and on forum, has one of the most natural scumgames I've seen because of how well his personality meshes with mafia as a game. He approaches the game in the way where it feels like he's taking it apart, but he

can

and does fake it very effortlessly as scum. The part that is unreasonable is Pie expecting you to know better, which I don't think is unreasonable because of the whole celebrity thing.

2) Your Yuriko scumread.
Also in agreement here, don't think Yuriko having incorrect reads on setup is actually scummy. It's a valid route to argue that it was scummy she speculated on the setup and did nothing else, but the "wrong = scum" fallacy is usually how scum push through mislynches, so you pushing this point on the easiest target in the playerlist is a perfectly reasonable thing to scumread.

3) The online argument.
Pie was annoyed he was pinged on activity tells when he wasn't doing an activity tell thing. I fucking hate activity tells. There is a correlation to posting and alignment in certain situations, hell yes. But it still occasionally gets under my skin when people incorrectly accuse me of scumlurking or posting elsewhere or shit like that because there's not really a way to defend that most days without site rules or lecturing about my life and all of the hardships in my life. Contextually, your argument was also pretty shitty, since pie was posting in discussion threads and not in games and usually people see if the posting elsewhere bits are substantial as opposed to seeing if they're just posting elsewhere.

voting me is pretty fucking obviously a push. this is even more so the case when you have had said vote on me for the entire game and have continually laid out additional reasons for me being scum over the course of the game. so, how is that not constituted a "push"?

Your problem with this is that it wasn't a push, but your language was strong, and, if pie is expecting you to be the mafia celebrity you're rumored to be, strong language is very easily push. The only motivation pie has as scum for calling it a push is to make her attack on you back more believable as "attacked townie responding", but it seems incredibly unlikely that pie really wanted to attack you THAT badly. Even if his tactic was to look really town by flipping out on the first person that attacked you, there was no reason she needed to force it in that particular situation and no reason she would want to.

the ffery town read is entirely about her confidence. this probably sounds really dumb but that's how I always read her and it's always been right, so it works for me. I don't think she'd immediately jump in and push Empire first thing in the game if she was scum here for this reason (it would be a more bold move than what I'm used to from her).

As I've talked about before, this felt town because on paper, they're not great reasons to townread someone. But they do have a pretty good basis in reality (I find myself noticing the confidence very very specifically), and while this isn't exactly the most compelling reasons because I'd expect Pie to read us correctly here regardless of her alignment, the way it unfolded was a minor townread. I also like how here and in her Yuriko read she forms reads and then has trouble explaining said reads afterwards. I think this is something more likely to happen as scum than town (or at least it is for me). Whenever I form a read as scum and don't give reasons, I usually have a reason behind them ("Why?" is the most basic question ever and if you don't know how to respond to that as scum you are really really fucked), but those two reads in particular didn't feel like Pie had that.

Although, as I write this out, I note that this point is less strong for expected meta reads thanks to that whole expected thing >.>

the above 2 posts literally made me lol. please hold.

This also reads town to me because it's a very vivid reminder of that one newbie game where I totally owned pie; she tends to get really excited when she's responding to someone she has a strong scumread on and usually makes these little "just give me the time it takes to type a post and bury the living hell out of you". I'm not sure she has these same tendencies as scum.

COME OUT AND PLAY, REGFAN

You don't get to write a bunch of walls and then go "herp derp, wall wars are anti-town". I, on the other hand, love wall wars, so good fucking luck pushing any more blatantly false arguments against me here.

I need to eat/shower. I'll respond to other posts when I get back.

I actually had a long thought on this post after Muffin noticed that it was a copy of a post of his in another game; it initially seemed strange to me that Pieguyn would think to mimic a Muffin post when frustrated and pushing against who he thought was scum with the possibility of scum, but her tone when pushing you two has been pretty solidly confident the whole way through, which is again, another reason to read her as town. It's around this point where scum-pie had to have been feeling some sort of pressure to back off, but this post and her tone surrounding this post how no signs of that at all and still have that "I caught scum!" glow around them.

this can also function as a tl;dr case, I guess. I hope this better explains where I'm coming from here.

Rehashing the case in the way she did also felt very, very town. There's an undeniable need to be understood and pride in her scumhunting behind every post that she makes, which is a large part of why I'm townreading her and a large part of why I'm townreading you. I think scum in gigantic wall wars are less likely to make every part of their argument parsable; one of those lovely advantages of being in wall wars as scum is that a vast majority of people will not read them in depth.

I do tend to feel guilty playing scum though.

This quote I'm pulling to establish pie's mindset as scum a bit more:

She feels guilty when playing scum. Yes, it's fun to manipulate and trick and defeat adversaries, but she's one of those strange players who feels guilt when lying and manipulating the hell out of anyone whenever possible. The more guilt a player feels while playing scum generally, the less likely they are to attempt serious emotional manipulation (which is what that super town post I quoted would be, still don't care about replacing out).

barring myself, you're essentially left with Yuriko - arguably the lowest hanging fruit in the game - and 2 people who both, up to now at least, have been giant lurkfucks. while I suppose logically there shouldn't be an issue with it, it feels extremely naive. do you really not have any second thoughts about everyone within the "meta-circle" being town?

This paranoid sentiment is a good one, especially since the it's very very much in scum's advantage to hide in the meta circle and let town blitz-lynch everyone outside said meta circle before actually looking into it.

I almost wish I was scum right now just so I could thoroughly enjoy watching as Regfan expends all his effort trying to lynch me and fails. ~

This sort of cheekiness/confidence is unprecedented in pie-scum games.
Again, I don't think she's found some ridiculous batshit scumgame out of nowhere while being in an RL-slump, but your case requires that and that's why it's a bad one.

hmmm

@ffery:

would you say that my original angle that Regfan was saying I was scum "lying about what a push is" was reasonable? aka, if you agreed that was what he was doing would he be scum for it?

I don't have any intention to push it further; I'm asking for an entirely unrelated reason.

I thought turning to ffery to get a second opinion to determine if how Muffin was approaching the game was town or not was town. It also shows continued conviction that she was correct in her side of the argument; there's an incredibly strong temptation as scum pushing a bullshit argument to sort of drop that argument forever and always once you don't have to deal with it anymore, but the continued focus on it is added focus that it's genuine.

pedit makes me sad

[sangres]

I can get into later posts as well if you really really want me to, but to the best of my knowledge, you are bothered by early ones still.
I also can't emphasize the towntell in 784 enough.

[sangres]

I had BIG PLANS to make more posts about other people but I got carried away with pieguyn.
In other news, I'm ready for a hammer now.

[YurikoJasmine]

err if you're gonna hammer all I could say is that by skimming through really fast I stick to my reads on post 1077

[sangres]

yeah, not gonna wait for anything else, just gonna hammer

Vote: Yuriko

[YurikoJasmine]

wait, am I at L-2?

[YurikoJasmine]

Vote Count 1.4

YurikoJasmine - 4 (Rancid Broderick Drake, BBmolla, Gold Saucer, Soft-spoken) L-1

pieguyn - 1 (Gentlemen Bastards) L-4
Gentlemen Bastards - 1 (pieguyn) L-4
Quilford - 1 (sangres) L-4
Soft-spoken - 1 (Quilford) L-4

Not Voting: YurikoJasmine

With 9 alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch. Deadline is June 27, 4 PM CST. This is (expired on 2015-06-27 17:01:08) from now.

good point. selfhammers suk

UNVOTE:

I wanted to say "why did you ask me to claim if you're not going to believe me anyway" but I realized it's just a stupid question.

vote: BBM

yeah, not gonna wait for anything else, just gonna hammer

Vote: Yuriko

So I'm still at L-1.
In that case

vote: YurikoJasmine

I'm really sorry about that and the next time we play I hope I'm a stronger player AND have more time to invest in the game. I'll still follow the game and see you post-game!

Re: game spec maybe we could talk about it more post-game.

[Gold Saucer]

i just did the math and its actually CCing the FF and winning the cc is not a bad position for scum to be in if molla was scum and quil wasnt.


but thats just paranoia speaking.


yuriko is coming out with some rather strange fos's (me/gold) that arnt substantiated.

Why are my FoS strange?

Because you're attacking the two most uniformly townread slots in the game and have given no reasoning nor indication that you've read past page 6 or wherever you were

-b

p-edit: cheers

[Gold Saucer]

assuming that's a scumclaim too

-b

[Gold Saucer]

1) Your Bork townread was too strong.
I agree that your Bork townread was too strong. Bork, in person and on forum, has one of the most natural scumgames I've seen because of how well his personality meshes with mafia as a game. He approaches the game in the way where it feels like he's taking it apart, but he can and does fake it very effortlessly as scum. The part that is unreasonable is Pie expecting you to know better, which I don't think is unreasonable because of the whole celebrity thing.

This is an interesting introspection, to say the least. I don't know that I've ever heard anyone describe my play outside of the context of a single game before other than "towns fucking harder than anyone"

-b