Open 604 - Fire and Ice - Fire mafia wins!

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #575 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:35 am

Anyone who is cocky enough to kill a townie's counter-wagon

TheCow · Post Post #576 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:38 am

In post 572, Wanderer-nl wrote:I wrote this yesterday but never got a response to this. I'd still like one actually.

In post 488, Wanderer-nl wrote:Ooh a link in my brain started working again.
thecow, you realize this is multiball right? Your plan might work in a singleball game but in this game, if scum think you look scummy and you're not on their team, you could still be on the other scumteam. Do you think scum will try to kill scum?

I'll look into yesterday more tonight after work.

Ah, my mistake. I figured it was some kind of rhetoric, I'll get to it now.

No, I do not think Scum will target each other until it becomes 3-2-2. Should I elaborate? I'd need to go find my notebook, but I ran a few simulations, so I could write them up. If people don't care about that kind of thing, I won't, because I'm lazy.

Klick · Post Post #577 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 4:54 am

In post 574, Prolapsed Brain wrote:If we knew that, we'd win, duh.

Who do YOU think is scum?

VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain

Prolapsed Brain · Post Post #578 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 5:52 am

I'm not really understanding you..... do you think I'm scum?

Klick · Post Post #579 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 6:51 am

My vote isn't moving off of you until you do something productive. I invite others to join me.

I don't even really mind if this ends up leading to a lynch - I have enough townreads to where you have over 50% chance of flipping scum.

ika · Post Post #580 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:32 am

VOTE: Prolapsed Brain

he can die

Firebringer · Post Post #581 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 8:56 am

Naah VOTE: Ika

These seems like a better choice right now. Prolapsed can die tomorrow.

Wanderer-nl · Post Post #582 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:06 am

In post 576, TheCow wrote:
In post 572, Wanderer-nl wrote:I wrote this yesterday but never got a response to this. I'd still like one actually.

In post 488, Wanderer-nl wrote:Ooh a link in my brain started working again.
thecow, you realize this is multiball right? Your plan might work in a singleball game but in this game, if scum think you look scummy and you're not on their team, you could still be on the other scumteam. Do you think scum will try to kill scum?

I'll look into yesterday more tonight after work.

Ah, my mistake. I figured it was some kind of rhetoric, I'll get to it now.

No, I do not think Scum will target each other until it becomes 3-2-2. Should I elaborate? I'd need to go find my notebook, but I ran a few simulations, so I could write them up. If people don't care about that kind of thing, I won't, because I'm lazy.

How about just your thoughts? This game isn't based purely on facts so I'm not sure how much your analytical approach is going to help you scumhunt. But if it does work, let me know because I sure am interested.
I still wonder how your plan fit into a multiball game. If scum isn't going to kill each other, why on earth would scum ever kill someone suspicious-looking?

TheCow · Post Post #583 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 9:30 am

In post 582, Wanderer-nl wrote:How about just your thoughts? This game isn't based purely on facts so I'm not sure how much your analytical approach is going to help you scumhunt. But if it does work, let me know because I sure am interested.
I still wonder how your plan fit into a multiball game. If scum isn't going to kill each other, why on earth would scum ever kill someone suspicious-looking?

I'm trying to guess how people would think given the different situation, as far as my simulations go, assuming players try looking at least 2 steps ahead. Of course, luck is a factor, and so are players prejudice, but it's given me an alright idea of what might happen. I doubt it'll help with scumhunt until D3, when the psychological aspects begin to come to the forefront. I'll gladly go into detail when this occurs.

Anyway, I was going less for scummy and more for "off", if you understand. There's a fine line between TPower hiding from the spotlight and Scum, and I was attempting to walk on that line, cheating to the left -- TPower hiding, that is. I thought that I might look like the Doctor, frankly. That's where the plan fit, if I were to place it somewhere.

Admittedly, I could have executed it better. Maybe wait until a bit later on before executing it, but I guess that's just hindsight.

Ika, have you updated your "who I would care if died" list yet? I'm pretty curious. If you don't mind, it would be a great help in doing reads.

Firebringer · Post Post #584 (ISO) » Sun Jul 26, 2015 1:49 pm

I am just here to say that the biggest train person will probably die tonight if they aren't lynched.

Just a guess

Or am I trying to throw off scum?

Or try for them to both attack me?

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #585 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:39 am

If ika was scum he wouldn't have posted
ika is town because he can't be arsed to change his meta

Wanderer-nl · Post Post #586 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:51 am

@thecow: I think I understand you a little better as a player now. Not completely sure yet where I stand on you though.

@Firebringer: maybe you're just scum trying to pretend he's town.

Firebringer · Post Post #587 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:40 am

Nice funny comment wander, if you think I am scum maybe you should vote me.

Klick · Post Post #588 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:32 am

In post 556, vonflare wrote:
Vote count:

ConManMick
(5) - Pisskop, klick, wanderer-nl,
bellaphant
, TheCow

Mist7676
(4) - Gameplay506, Radja, firebringer, prolapsed brain

Gameplay
(1) -
Mist7676

Bellaphant
(1) -
ConManMick

TheCow
(1) - hayotoBL

not voting
-
Ika

With 13 players it's 7 to lynch.

Day 1 will end in
(expired on 2015-07-24 15:00:00)!

The Bella-killers are on ConMan, the Mist-killers are on Mist. Throw hayato in with the ConMan group and ika in with the Mist group.

It's probably something like Prolapsed/Mario and Wanderer/pisskop.

Have fun cross-killing scum!

pisskop · Post Post #589 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:35 am

Thats lazy.

and I think it might actually be Gamestate.

Klick · Post Post #590 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:37 am

I COULD see Bella-killers being on the Mist wagon. But it mostly seems obvious that the Mist-killers were there.

gameplay506 · Post Post #591 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:42 am

Fu piskop

pisskop · Post Post #592 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:44 am

<3

The Mist kill was a silly one, I agree.
The Bella kills were scum scumhunting. but I dont agree they

had

to be on Con.

Klick · Post Post #593 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:51 am

I mostly say the Bella killers are on ConMan because I have townreads on Fire/gameplay, and ika probably didn't do it.

pisskop · Post Post #594 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 10:53 am

My only experience with Fireman is him trolling hard enough to be PLed with kitten pics.

Prolapsed Brain · Post Post #595 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:53 am

In post 593, Klick wrote:I mostly say the Bella killers are on ConMan because I have townreads on Fire/gameplay, and ika probably didn't do it.

This objectively makes no sense.

Whether or not you have townreads on Fire/gameplay, you are still attributing a kill to {Radja|me|

ika

}, so what makes you think that group would prefer a Mist kill over Bella? Or, conversely, why would the other group prefer a Bella kill over Mist?

TheCow · Post Post #596 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:01 pm

In post 585, MarioManiac4 wrote:If ika was scum he wouldn't have posted
ika is town because he can't be arsed to change his meta

Would you mind elaborating? I do not understand what you are saying in this post.

In post 587, Firebringer wrote:Nice funny comment wander, if you think I am scum maybe you should vote me.

I mean, your last comment does nothing as far as game play goes, and is likely just faux WIFOM. I question the point of it as well.

In post 593, Klick wrote:I mostly say the Bella killers are on ConMan because I have townreads on Fire/gameplay, and ika probably didn't do it.

So you think Radja and/or Prolapsed are scum?
You think hayoto is town?

Why do you think Pisskop, klick, wanderer-nl, and I would not want to kill mist? What would these players get in keeping mist alive?

Klick · Post Post #597 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 12:53 pm

In post 596, TheCow wrote:
In post 593, Klick wrote:I mostly say the Bella killers are on ConMan because I have townreads on Fire/gameplay, and ika probably didn't do it.

So you think Radja and/or Prolapsed are scum?
You think hayoto is town?

Why do you think Pisskop, klick, wanderer-nl, and I would not want to kill mist? What would these players get in keeping mist alive?

Yes, I currently suspect Mario and Prolapsed are scum. I don't necessarily have a townread on hayato - as I said before, I threw him in with the people on the ConMan wagon as the likely Bella-killers. "on ConMan" was a generalization. I've already given pretty much every conclusion I made from looking at the lynch VC/kills in my last few posts.

I think the scumteam that killed Mist is within the people on the Mist wagon because the kill was likely an aim for scum. (I doubt anyone felt threatened by Mist, the ConMan counterwagon.) In addition, the people who killed Mist likely weren't taking into account the fact that she was most likely going to be lynched today - her jump onto the ConMan wagon looked really scummy, and she already had suspicion on her. The kill was silly, as pisskop put it. That implies the Mist-killers either didn't think much about their kill, or they aren't incredibly experienced as scum. Conveniently, I'd say all of the Mist wagon are players who would consider killing Mist:
- I could see gameplay doing it, I don't think he's been scum too many times before?
- Mario's just replaced in, and from what I've seen of him I wouldn't be too surprised if he killed Mist
- Definitely could see Firebringer wanting to kill Mist
- From what I can tell Prolapsed Brain isn't actually paying attention, he would kill Mist

As for the last question: Mist looked scummy. Mist was the most likely lynch for today, had she not been killed. I don't see pisskop, myself, Wanderer-nl, or you killing the most likely lynch.

ika · Post Post #598 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 4:50 pm

kick i got a curve question:

why do you think you are alive over mist/bella?

MarioManiac4 · Post Post #599 (ISO) » Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:08 pm

In post 597, Klick wrote:
In post 596, TheCow wrote:
In post 593, Klick wrote:I mostly say the Bella killers are on ConMan because I have townreads on Fire/gameplay, and ika probably didn't do it.

So you think Radja and/or Prolapsed are scum?
You think hayoto is town?

Why do you think Pisskop, klick, wanderer-nl, and I would not want to kill mist? What would these players get in keeping mist alive?

Yes, I currently suspect Mario and Prolapsed are scum. I don't necessarily have a townread on hayato - as I said before, I threw him in with the people on the ConMan wagon as the likely Bella-killers. "on ConMan" was a generalization. I've already given pretty much every conclusion I made from looking at the lynch VC/kills in my last few posts.

I think the scumteam that killed Mist is within the people on the Mist wagon because the kill was likely an aim for scum. (I doubt anyone felt threatened by Mist, the ConMan counterwagon.) In addition, the people who killed Mist likely weren't taking into account the fact that she was most likely going to be lynched today - her jump onto the ConMan wagon looked really scummy, and she already had suspicion on her. The kill was silly, as pisskop put it. That implies the Mist-killers either didn't think much about their kill, or they aren't incredibly experienced as scum. Conveniently, I'd say all of the Mist wagon are players who would consider killing Mist:
- I could see gameplay doing it, I don't think he's been scum too many times before?
- Mario's just replaced in, and from what I've seen of him I wouldn't be too surprised if he killed Mist
- Definitely could see Firebringer wanting to kill Mist
- From what I can tell Prolapsed Brain isn't actually paying attention, he would kill Mist

As for the last question: Mist looked scummy. Mist was the most likely lynch for today, had she not been killed. I don't see pisskop, myself, Wanderer-nl, or you killing the most likely lynch.

1. Gameplay is more experienced than you think. Gameplay wouldn't have killed Mist.
2. Well, you got me there. 10/10. Except people replacing in READ THE BLOODY VOTECOUNT.
3. Mehhhhhhhhh. True.
4. Maybe.

So if your theory is actually correct Fire/PB is a scumteam. I wonder what their interactionz look like