Nightingale's Tale - [Game Over]

[zMuffinMan]

oh. also don't really care about grapes' target so much given there's a decent chance scum is no killing this game

or rather, making decisions based on it alone seems dumb. like he could have blocked the kill but i'm not gonna lynch whoever he blocked unless i think they're scum outside of it

anyway, more tomorrow

[zMuffinMan]

actually i dont really understand why there was no kill the night mac was blocked because if scum had just killed every night theyd potentially be in mylo now

gonna think about this when i can actually keep my eyes open though

[zMuffinMan]

Are you assuming 3 scum or 4 scum? If 3 scum, both answers should be self evident. If 4 scum, I admit no one is confirmed.

i doubt there's 4 scum

i'm operating on the assumption there's 3

[zMuffinMan]

nacho who do you think is scum?

[zMuffinMan]

to what end

[zMuffinMan]

eh

i figure if scum has been intentionally not killing to set up potential frames and/or avoid implication via roleblocks, they're just goin to do it again. likewise if brian is actually scum and his kill was blocked, he'll probably avoid killing tonight because of the obvious implications

i mean, we can but i don't think it's all that likely we'll gain any new info from it

[zMuffinMan]

actually that's not entirely true

i can think of a couple possibilities where no lynching is potentially useful

eh, we can just for the sake of it i guess

[zMuffinMan]

if we are no lynching, grapes should probably declare a not-brian target before it happens

[zMuffinMan]

actually there is a scenario in which no lynching is not the greatest of ideas and that's if, for example, the no kills have been for a mechanical reason (e.g. delay kill one night, +normal kill the next night like what was in the pokemon game that finished a short while ago or if it's just something like no kill = 2 kills allowed the next night) but whatever - even that potentially provides some information and i just don't give a fuck anymore about trying to figure out what's been going on with the kills this game so fuck it, i don't actually care

ps nacho, you really need some moisturiser - your complexion is not looking so good lately

[zMuffinMan]

if there is a delayed kill, that is how i'm assuming it would work (both because it makes sense of what's been happening on the nights with no kills and because otherwise it'd just be broken)

[zMuffinMan]

If it's a delayed kill, then we're about to get two flips, yeah?

that would depend on who's scum, i suppose

So it comes back to whether you think it's a three-man scumteam or a four-man scumteam

well, the downside of there being potentially two kills tonight isn't just that we would lose if there's two scum (which i don't really think is the case so i'm not too worried about). it's that we potentially lose a lynch we would have otherwise had (e.g. 6 alive, if it's 5v1, 4v1 after a lynch goes to 2v1 lylo if there's 2 kills, whereas if we no lynch it goes to 3v1 mylo and scum are deciding who to take with them to whatever end game they want, basically)

or scum were doing what I like to do and were just hiding the fact they have this delayed kill ability from us so they can finish us off in one fell swoop (in which case, why bother tipping their hand on Night 5)

i suppose it depends on how many times it can be used and/or how smart/forward-thinking the remaining scum is - i am continually baffled by how awful some scum players actually are so i don't have any high expectations for anyone to actually play optimally as scum

it could also just be something else entirely. i am just thinking about different possibilities right now

[zMuffinMan]

"There is scum in the double voters" is an assertion that came out of nowhere and is supported by nothing. It is dumb.

mm, it's an idea i thought would make sense in the setup but it's not something i would put stock in as a deciding factor for a lynch

that said, thoughts on gaiden?

i've been leaving gaiden alone for the most part because i've been somewhat trusting of sakura's read on him and i could see some of the things he's done make some sense as town, but i'm in the (very slow) process of re-evaluating things at the moment

btw, if gaiden is scum and actually ends up winning this, there will be words, sakura. there. will. be. words.

[zMuffinMan]

there's a very good reason i don't think nacho is scum, brian. if anyone actually thinks about it, they'll understand why it's unlikely he's scum*

[zMuffinMan]

there's a very good reason i don't think nacho is scum, brian. if anyone actually thinks about it, they'll understand why it's unlikely he's scum*

Why are you being cryptic

it wasn't meant to be cryptic. it's just there was potential merit to seeing whether anyone figured it out independently without me directly telling them. but i don't think anyone actually is going back and thinking about the game in any depth at this point so ill just be a little more blunt: farside rolecop led nacho. what do you think this means about the game given there's a mechanic that allows double kills?

[zMuffinMan]

Grapes, I'd definitely consider Muffin over Gaiden for reblock, considering the whole fruit thing.

also this isn't a bad idea from the point of view of providing more info

[zMuffinMan]

Grapes kill doesn't make any sense regardless. Tbh I would have probably lynched him if it reached 3/4p and he was still alive. I was thinking he might be intentionally no-killing so he had an excuse for still being alive

[zMuffinMan]

if i were a PGO id have just claimed it at the start of the game - it's theoretically correct as town and scum because it's the right thing to do as town, but nobody ever actually believes a PGO claim so it's also the right thing to do as scum (because people will test it)

though that said, if i were a PGO, this game would probably be over by now? that would mean there's 3 missing kills (N4, N6 and last night since i'd have killed someone other than grapes if i had the ability to kill him via PGO)

[zMuffinMan]

But I also would have killed him the night after he claimed and the Muffin kill is something I would never have committed

this reminds me of one of the reasons i was considering the possibility of gaiden-scum at some point earlier - nobody else still alive really had any incentive to go after fake-muffin. he was obviously not a threat via role, which means someone had to have considered him a threat via play. it's possible it was a noddy-directed kill though, so this isn't the strongest of points

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin who are you leaning lynching?

gaiden

[zMuffinMan]

i will be mildly disappointed if it turns out we coulda just gone through with lynching him yesterday and ended the game quicker

[zMuffinMan]

oversoul only really makes sense as scum if he's something ridiculous like an ascetic/strongman + backup/extra vig/whatever

which, even with a small scum team, is kind of stupidly large amount of power

[zMuffinMan]

I mean, that seems kind of obvious, though. The possibilities have always been that he either used it once because he either couldn't or didn't want to use it again (which is understandable since a link would have been drawn eventually) or that he never used it to begin with (which imo would actually be the smarter option - tbh if I were scum with noddy I would have told him to either not use it til later in the game if necessary or claim it as negative utility D1 and have town direct it for maximum town cred)

[zMuffinMan]

i think he could use it again. the flip didn't say anything about it being X-shot

Indeed, I was speaking in terms of theoretical possibilities to explain not targeting anyone else

I don't really get why they used it n1 on a d5 role and then never again either

Which was part of the reason I was paranoid about Brian earlier in the game

[zMuffinMan]

ok, i have an odd question, does anyone here doubt that if NS neighborized someone, then he must have vanillaized the person as well?

that seems most likely given the wording of the role

The next logical question to ask is, "Does anyone doubt that katsuki would be a rational actor in this game?"

well, presumably cupcake would have got a negative result if he investigated brian (except N1), which doesn't say much at all if the neighbourhood ability only lasted a single night like brian claims

besides which, if you type irrational into google, it says "

Did you mean:

Katsuki

?"

[zMuffinMan]

i assume named is because he was nightingale but regardless, brian wouldn't have been in a neighbourhood after n1 so it doesn't make much difference

[zMuffinMan]

He could have always held onto it and vanillarized NK targets like Grapes

that is what i meant when i said holding onto it until later in the game, yes

You were? I must have missed this

indeed. the idea of asking your scum buddy to either legitimately target you or claim to have targeted you is something i might do as scum, and part of why i thought it was rather convenient that he chose to vanillarise a n5 role n1 when that's clearly suboptimal play

[zMuffinMan]

eh. can't find anything about any of cupcake's targets in his ISO

presumably if brian was checked it woulda been the night no kill occurred (the only thing cupcake did the next day is vote mac)

[zMuffinMan]

eh. can't find anything about any of cupcake's targets in his ISO

I've already looked a few times since he died. I don't think he crumbed or softed anything and it's possible he thought his role wasn't that important. But he thought I was town, so maybe?

i doubt he put people in his town list because he investigated them

and yeah, because if he were going to use it on you (a claimed vanilla) it would have been after noddy's flip

[zMuffinMan]

he probably didn't. would be helpful if the useless sack of crap actually left proper crumbs if he was using his role, especially since he was outed on like D2

or even like a "oh yeah i think brian is town, btw vote: mac" or something

[zMuffinMan]

it kind of depends on how useful cupcake thought his role might be in that regard - i.e. they said the neighbourhood lasted a single night, he might have assumed checking brian wouldn't have done anything. likewise, if he got a negative result on brian, he might have assumed it was because the neighbourhood lasted a single night

i mean, it would have been smart to do so anyway. it also would have been smart to hint at any results he got. but he clearly didn't do the smart thing *shrug*

[zMuffinMan]

didn't realise deadline was so close

Vote: gaiden

hopefully game is over by the time i wake up

[zMuffinMan]

was pretty fucking angry that yesterday ended the way it did

from a theory standpoint, i don't really have an issue with no lynch (other than the fact it's probably kind of pointless in terms of information gained), but really i just want this fucking game to end one way or another, the sooner the better

i'll probably do some skimming or something in the next day or two

[zMuffinMan]

tbh i am not looking forward to having to make a potentially game-losing decision by myself tomorrow if we no lynch today and oversoul dies tonight so im gonna offer a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity of $1000 (in monopoly money) to whoever is scum if they kill me

yes, i

am

that generous. please send me to the dead thread where i can yell, "omg, why!?!? it was so fucking obvious!!" if we lose and, "yeah! same choice i would have made!!" if we win

[zMuffinMan]

offer void if monopoly money violates site rules

[zMuffinMan]

uh yeah since i don't think oversoul is going to change his mind any time soon, i'll just use the remaining time in this day phase to read stuff. i'm technically in the middle of moving but i'm really lazy so i'll prob take breaks for most of tomorrow and skim ISOs

[zMuffinMan]

going through nati's ISO

there's virtually nothing in there. nati was playing a low-information game and i'd assume leaving behind next to nothing in the way of interactions was part of that. literally no mention of either brian or gaiden

on brian's side of things, there's light mentions of a town lean on nati here and there but nothing particularly definitive in the way of interactions. gaiden's only mention of nati is that post near the very end of the day where he says he's not feeling the nati lynch which isn't particularly telling one way or another given it's gaiden

meh

i'll probably look over noddy interactions after a nap since there's probably more there

[zMuffinMan]

I really wish we had that extra lynch buffer right about now

tbh I don't think either Brian or gaiden look particularly good from the noddy interactions

there's some interactions between Brian and noddy early on that maybe I'm reading too much into but the way they were interacting with each other didn't look like typical early game joking around so much as being overly conscious of each other. Eg asking noddy to vote him on p6 to confirm gif scum which, apart from making no sense, felt oddly forced

there was like a 40-page gap between some posts from Brian where he goes from saying he expected more from noddy to saying he thought some of noddys posts were town in a big catchup wall and not much more than that, which wouldn't be that strange except for the fact that he had a lot more to say about others in the game at the time

the other mentions of noddy d1 aren't particularly interesting - atm I'm just trying to figure out whether I believe that (a) noddy chose to vanillarise him (and why N1 when he clearly wasn't an immediate threat via claim, if a threat at all), and (b) that Brian's read progression on noddy is believable

as for gaiden, every mention of noddy is pretty much "I think he's scummy but I always think he's scummy" and... that's it... no real support for a noddy lynch or anything... i really should look into how gaiden normally treas buddies but I doubt I'm going to get around to meta research like that, especially before the day ends, so whatever

please. please show me mercy tonight. please

[zMuffinMan]

o yeah i remembered that but the explanation he gave made sense i guess

i'm not sure i would have assumed fakegod the vanillarise was related to the neighbourise

it could also have just been an attempt at diffusing suspicion but it's not something i'd say suggests them being scum together

[zMuffinMan]

that second line is messed up because i sleepy but the key thing is fakegod bad role designer

[zMuffinMan]

You mean where Gif and I were talking about the same superficial scumtell (as in scum being the third person on a wagon; it's also not the first time we've danced around stuff you can find on the wiki)?

i was more talking about the fact that you asked noddy specifically

As opposed to the handful of players I mentioned with as few words in the same post (and the same paragraph apparently)?

well yeah, but i thought you'd have more to say about noddy given you have more history with him than others

which reminds me, the way you started the paragraph you mentioned both noddy and nati, "oh, who else is in this game?" was part of what stuck out to me

[zMuffinMan]

to clarify, it would make sense that you asked noddy specifically if you were overly conscious about him

this isn't something i'm expecting you to rebut or anything btw, i'm just saying this is something i'm thinking about atm

[zMuffinMan]

[zMuffinMan]

whatevs

im not a huge fan of making decisions

ideally i would want this day phase decided with you two going head to head in an epic rap battle that will be remembered for years to come

but failing that, i will do some reading and listen to whatever cases either of you wants to put forward on the other

Note: said cases will be significantly more likely to be listened to if they involve things of real world value, like money, gold, diamonds and nude pictures of nacho

[zMuffinMan]

if Brian is town, that Salamence wagon would be entirely town on town

[zMuffinMan]

Why would scum-brian claim D5 IC under very little pressure?

to survive until the endgame?

heh

[zMuffinMan]

Well I suppose Sala wagon (or any wagon really) being entirely town wouldn't be strange if scum either weren't around or were intentionally not voting (like noddy / gaiden) so maybe Sala thingy is a moot point

[zMuffinMan]

The dead thread is probably raging that I'm not seeing something that should be incredibly obvious

[zMuffinMan]

I'm leaning towards voting gaiden atm

[zMuffinMan]

Neither of you look particularly good via interactions

Based on play, I can see some things in Brian's posts that ring genuine and I'm struggling to find anything similar in gaiden's posts

I'm also loosely basing it on who was killed at night and what their reads were and a majority of them were either ambivalent about or scum reading gaiden (with the exception of kagami who seemed to have at least a minor town read on gaiden for the way he interacted with the nati wagon but I'm not all that convinced it was a strong point)

[zMuffinMan]

It's not exactly helping things when it looks like neither of you really give a shit about this game anymore though

ECHO

ECHO

ECHO

ECHO

ECHO

[zMuffinMan]

Took fucking ages to write that standing up on te train and you ruined the magic

[zMuffinMan]

Meh it'd be cool if either of you were like "hey muffin, seen this thing? it looks pretty damning imo" or something that made me feel a little better about where to place my vote

[zMuffinMan]

Well kagami wasn't strongly town reading you (afaict) and the only real point she mentioned D2 was that nati thing which isn't that great a point imo

Sakura is one of the only reasons I haven't voted you previously

[zMuffinMan]

Tbh though pretending to have been vanillarised is exactly the kind of thing id have done as scum this game

[zMuffinMan]

And I'm still wondering why any scum team would have perceived a claimed d5 role as a threat this game

[zMuffinMan]

Or rather a threat n1*

[zMuffinMan]

I gotta start work

Will prob be doing a little more reading on breaks/lunch

[zMuffinMan]

How much time should pass before we file a missing persons report for Brian?

[zMuffinMan]

Heh... It would be a pretty fitting end for this game if we lost because the timer for this day phase ran out with whichever of you is town not voting

[zMuffinMan]

HAHAHA

IT WAS ME ALL ALONG!

VToE: BARN

[zMuffinMan]

lol jk

anyway still reading

[zMuffinMan]

is there a reason youre not voting gaiden?

[zMuffinMan]

So I’ve been wracking my brain over this game since yesterday. It’s been a long time since I actually had to make a decision in lylo so I’m actually feeling a bit of pressure to get this one right. I am actually a little sleep-deprived because I laid awake last night considering everything that has happened in this game and trying to figure out the answer.

On the one hand, gaiden is gaiden. Sakura has a decent record in reading gaiden and seemed pretty sure he was town. Kagami’s read strength on gaiden wasn’t as strong, but Kagami still leaned towards gaiden being town and I believe Kagami also has a decent history in reading gaiden correctly [citation needed]. Gaiden’s play itself hasn’t been at all impressive, even by normal gaiden standards, and I’ve been struggling for most of the game to get a solid read one way or another on him. His interactions with nati were basically non-existent up until the point where he declared he was unwilling to vote nati shortly before the deadline, and his interactions with noddy didn’t make me feel particularly good about him. But overall there’s nothing condemning there.

On the other hand, there’s Brian, who really, while I can find some things in his ISO that make me lean town on him, I’m still very, very paranoid about. I feel his enthusiasm towards the game has waned significantly, and while he’s claiming that has a bit to do with Oversoul/Nacho letting that no lynch happen a couple days ago, really, I feel this drop in activity levels and zeal could actually be alignment-related.

I think the fact that he’s basically been coasting by this day phase isn’t exactly endearing, and I find it a little weird that he’s not cross-voting at the moment. I guess this doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, but it’s still a little strange given the current game state.

I don’t think I’ll ever get over the paranoia I have about him with regards to the way the vanillarise stuff played out this game – I’ve read all the explanations and points he’s made about it, but no matter what way I think about it, I think the way noddy used his role in this game simply makes zero sense and I don’t really think noddy is such a bad player that he would consider Brian (a claimed D5 role) a threat so early in the game. Also, I don’t think noddy would be stupid enough to use his role in the way he did when there were probably better ways to use his role overall.

I’ve also been re-reading other interactions between Brian and flipped scum, particularly nati, and while I don’t think there’s anything conclusive that suggests he’s scum there, I do think the way he interacted with nati D1 looked a bit worse than what gaiden did – gaiden’s play simply makes very little sense, whereas brian was actively discouraging a nati lynch for a majority of D1, despite acknowledging that I have a fairly good history with reading Nati.

So basically this is where I’m at. My heart is telling me to vote Brian.

I feel like there’s a lot of weight on my shoulders with the fate of this game basically coming down to how good my reads are. And I don’t really want to let anyone in the dead thread down here. Nacho, if you’re watching over me right now, give me strength. Cho, if you’re up there somewhere, lend me power. Bork, please act as my guardian angel and help me in my time of need. Cupcake… Actually, I don’t care much about Cupcake to be perfectly honest so I wouldn’t feel all that bad in letting him down, but please continue doing whatever cupcakes do when they’re dead.

I want to be the hero this game needs, but not the hero this game deserves.

Just FYI… If brian is scum, I am going to fist-pump so fucking hard that I trusted my heart on this one. I’m going to jump up on my fucking desk and dance.

But if gaiden is scum, I’m going to give Sakura (and Kagami) SOOOOOOOO much shit for how badly they misread him this game, because some of this decision is coming down to me trusting them on their read instead of thinking about who I’d have voted purely by myself.

So anyway, I’ve made my decision and I’m sticking with it. I could waffle back and forth for another few days but, really, I don’t want to start second-guessing myself, so, without further ado…

Vote: Brian