Open 604 - Fire and Ice - Fire mafia wins!
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Klick
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In post 26, Bellaphant wrote:Ika, I have 3 page 1 scum reads and 1 town read. This never happens. You?
scum 2 found-
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ika's scum because he's specifically waiting for others to continue RVS, without contributing himself. This conveniently adds absolutely nothing and further stalls RVS.
Bella's scum for Post #26. Seems like an early attempt at placing a towntell by saying she has three scumreads - as Mafia, she is only looking for two scum.-
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I'm leaning town on Bella, comparing her scum meta to a couple of town games I read of hers. I won't go into detail, because that would make what I'm seeing easier to manipulate should Bella be scum.
Mist, I have a feeling you're never going to townread me.
I do have a question for you though: do you actually think there's any chance of Firebringer being lynched this early? Maybe it's just me having more faith in the current meta than I should, but I really can't see someone being dumb enough to hammer this early.
ika totally ignored my push on him in favor of voting someone who hasn't posted anything but a confirm. Ironically, Sword Master has posted the same amount of actual content ika has. That vote is now 10x more serious.
ConMan, you should vote ika with me.-
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In post 137, gameplay506 wrote:Klick lets wagon Cow.
Ika is giving like 0 reactions. I don't wanna parkvote there waiting for something to happen while it's not.
If ika continues giving no reactions, he should be policy lynched. No use leaving a player in the game that's not going to play.
Could you go into more detail on your townreads, ika? At least, did anything stand out about them in particular?-
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I guess I'll just format this like a reads list.
ika: Very slight town lean based on Post #142. Gut more than anything else.
Radja: Completely null. I'll need to come back to him after there's more content from him.
Bellaphant: Town. Town town town. First thing that made me realize this was her Post #49 claim that "placing a town-tell" was too complicated for her. I do want to ask though -@Bella- you asked a string of questions from Post #75 to Post #111. What results did you get from those questions? Can you analyze the answers you got and pull reads from them? (and I'll answer your first one in this post!)
TheCow: Iwasreading him as town until his most recent post. He has essentially claimed not-Doctor, and says he was attempting to be shot tonight. But he didn't think of the much simpler way of drawing an NK that also helps the town, that being just playing a strong game and finding scum. In light of his most recent post, I can't say anything he has said is particularly alignment-indicative, though his whole self-focused play style reads as slightly scum.Cow, could you start scumhunting for real now?
ConManMick: We're long past RVS. Do something. I used to be where you were, joining 5+ games and not doing much in any of them (presumably). I suggest either committing to this game and putting some effort into scumhunting ASAP, or replacing out and sticking to 1-2 games at a time. No use being in a game if you're not playing it.
Sword Master: You're right, it is time to play the game! Null.
Tatsuya Kaname: I would be voting him if he were not V/LA, for Post #152. He's asking for reads, but not giving any. Him being V/LA justifies this somewhat, and it also makes wagoning him pointless until Sunday. Still, slight scum lean.
gameplay506: His votes are all over the place. I see seven votes in seven pages. He made a "serious" vote in ConMan, but never explained it (even after being asked to) and switched to ika, then Cow soon after. I'm getting no town vibes from him, and I could easily see this being scum.
Mist7676: Crap. I tried to read her, but I know her well, and everything is just registering as a Mist-tell. I think the problem is that she's asking too many questions and not giving enough opinions.Mist, could I see some of your reads with reasoning?
Prolapsed Brain: This read is suffering from the same thing Mist's is - not enough analysis/opinions.Just a general request to everyone: Start giving more opinions pls
Firebringer: Actively anti-town. I would lynch this, despite not having a read on the slot at all.
hayatoBL: Thank you for being readable. I feel a little weird about Post #113. Specifically, I have a little trouble believing he actually asked Tatsyua to replace out as a reaction test - that's not something I would consider using to get a read. It's something I might think of after I asked the player to replace out, but not before. Regardless, it at least looks like a planned thing from Post #101, so I'll let it slide. Other than that, I like his contributions, he seems genuine in his scumhunting, and his Cow push has produced a lot of info. Solid town read right under Bella.
So that would make my reads look something like this:
TOWN
Bellaphant
hayatoBL
ika
--- SEA OF NULL ---
Mist7676
Prolapsed Brain
Sword Master
Radja
ConManMick
Firebringer
--- SEA OF NULL ---
Tatsuya Kaname
TheCow
gameplay506
SCUM
VOTE: gameplay-
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In post 160, Radja wrote:Klick, I don't really see the scumread on Cow. If you're buying the explanation he gave for his play, I don't see why you would scumread him. Additionally, would you think scum would claim non-doc?
First off, I have to clarify that it's not a particularly strong scumread, which is why I'm not voting him - along with the fact that he's been wagoned already. What has me leaning scum on him is that he has spent the past seven pages focusing on creating an image of himself, as opposed to contributing to discussion or looking for scum. That's something scum has more of an incentive to do than town does.
Scum definitely has an incentive to claim non-doc. The scumteams will want to kill the doc. Therefore, if scum makes it clear they're not the doc, they're less likely to be killed by opposing scum.-
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Actually, let's have a look at the Forum Rules and Guidelines:
Forum Rules and Guidelines wrote:- Play to win the game.
Now, let's look at what Firebringer is saying:
Firebringer wrote:I am going anti town just because of you.
vonflare, I request a force replacement of Firebringer for breaking site rules.-
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Wait a second. Then why did you vote Cow here and claim you had a scumread on him?
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Ah, okay. I think I get what you're saying. The fact that he was conscious of the fact that there were two informed minorities was scummy to you? I can see that.
Anyway, UNVOTE: . Both you and gameplay read as genuine and town over the last two pages, and you were eventually willing to work to make reads when asked. As long as gameplay does eventually come back with his hayato read, I'll stay off of that vote.
VOTE: TheCow-
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Happy birthday vonflare!
Could we get a prod on Sword Master?
Speaking of,@Sword Master:You've been active elsewhere on-site. What's the deal? If you don't want to play with us, you should replace out. Otherwise, get your butt in here and start playing!
I'm agreeing on Radja, Bella. Leaning town on him at the moment.-
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In post 220, TheCow wrote:Klick, it could be my lack of experience, but I don't understand your town read here. Would you mind elaborating for me?
Post #182 is the main reason I'm feeling like gameplay is town. As scum watching me go after Firebringer, I don't think gameplay would try to pull a read from the situation. Instead, I think he would have kept talking about how annoyed he was about my play.
Admittedly it's weak reasoning, and I'm not ruling gameplay out at all. There's just not much else to go off of with that slot. If he doesn't continue providing content, I could see that just being a way for him to try and get town points from me.-
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In post 274, Firebringer wrote:In post 260, Prolapsed Brain wrote:In post 258, Firebringer wrote:In post 270, pisskop wrote:Cons not folding. If hes town hes calling our bluff.
Help us lynch scum or PL a townie who woild withhold content and make lurking a viable scum strat.
I think lurking is kind of viable for town as well day 1. I mean no it isn't very "pro town" but being anti town day 1 isn't such a bad strategy. How often do the lurkers/anti town players get attacked Night 1 by mafia?
I'm going to explain what's wrong with this. "Anti town" is, by definition, working against the town's chances of winning. This isnevergood. People over the years have attributed the phrase "anti town" to behaviors that have proven to be against the town. These are things such as not providing content D1, or lurking.
Now, why does this work against the town? You propose that it decreases your chances of being NKed N1... but this is not a positive at all.Someoneis going to be killed N1, no matter what. If you don't provide content D1 to avoid the NK, you're letting someone who is probably actively scumhunting and has a town read die in exchange for someone no one has a read on. And your reads are not objectively better than that player who dies N1.
Therefore, barring PRs, it isalwaysa net loss to behave in an anti-town way to avoid the NK.
(Phone post, sorry for no real content, but I felt that was a necessary comment to make and didn't want to forget)-
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In post 398, pisskop wrote:thr point is im going to get him lynched, even if not today
And this site is entirely too tolerant of his type of lurking.
I completely agree.
Firebringer, consider the possibility that ConMan is scum. He's doing nothing alignment-indicative. He "could easily be town," but could also easily be scum because he's giving us nothing. When are we going to lynch him? He's never going to be scumread by other means if we continue to let him live on his current play.
That's why, for the most part, my play today has been making sure everyone provides content. By Day 2, it would be nice if we had information to use from everyone. That's why I want to lynch a lurker today. And today is arguably the best time to do it, so that we don't have to waste time during a future day discussing lynching a lurker.
Catching up. Instead of ISO-reading, I think I'll just read from front to back and take notes.-
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So I've read up.
...but that makes almost no difference. My reads have been relatively unchanged. The only particularly notable one is gameplay raising to the top rank of my townreads.
To be honest I'm completely null on Mist. I know her well as a person, and because of that, I could see basically anything she says as being from town or scum. Especially in multiball, where even scum can be scumhunting.
I'd rather see this vote switch to ConMan, because he has yet to do anything significant and I really don't see this changing. But I agree with gameplay that Mist being lynched will at least provide some info.
VOTE: ConMan-
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In post 552, gameplay506 wrote:Like really I don't feel like a Con lynch would help with anything at all. I don't freakin want a Con lynch.
I want to compromise at least.
I disagree.
And that's about how far that argument is going to get you with anyone.
The way I see it, in this game there isn't anyone who is obviously scum, or even close to it. This is because of players like ConMan not doing anything to further discussion. Now, this makes me suspect that the scum may be within the players that aren't furthering discussion.
In essence, it's a policy lynch that also has a decent chance of landing on scum, with 1/3 of the players being scum.-
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VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain
VOTE: Prolapsed Brain-
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The Bella-killers are on ConMan, the Mist-killers are on Mist. Throw hayato in with the ConMan group and ika in with the Mist group.
It's probably something like Prolapsed/Mario and Wanderer/pisskop.
Have fun cross-killing scum!-
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In post 596, TheCow wrote:In post 593, Klick wrote:I mostly say the Bella killers are on ConMan because I have townreads on Fire/gameplay, and ika probably didn't do it.
So you think Radja and/or Prolapsed are scum?
You think hayoto is town?
Why do you think Pisskop, klick, wanderer-nl, and I would not want to kill mist? What would these players get in keeping mist alive?
Yes, I currently suspect Mario and Prolapsed are scum. I don't necessarily have a townread on hayato - as I said before, I threw him in with the people on the ConMan wagon as the likely Bella-killers. "on ConMan" was a generalization. I've already given pretty much every conclusion I made from looking at the lynch VC/kills in my last few posts.
I think the scumteam that killed Mist is within the people on the Mist wagon because the kill was likely an aim for scum. (I doubt anyone felt threatened by Mist, the ConMan counterwagon.) In addition, the people who killed Mist likely weren't taking into account the fact that she was most likely going to be lynched today - her jump onto the ConMan wagon looked really scummy, and she already had suspicion on her. The kill was silly, as pisskop put it. That implies the Mist-killers either didn't think much about their kill, or they aren't incredibly experienced as scum. Conveniently, I'd say all of the Mist wagon are players who would consider killing Mist:
- I could see gameplay doing it, I don't think he's been scum too many times before?
- Mario's just replaced in, and from what I've seen of him I wouldn't be too surprised if he killed Mist
- Definitely could see Firebringer wanting to kill Mist
- From what I can tell Prolapsed Brain isn't actually paying attention, he would kill Mist
As for the last question: Mist looked scummy. Mist was the most likely lynch for today, had she not been killed. I don't see pisskop, myself, Wanderer-nl, or you killing the most likely lynch.-
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In post 602, Wanderer-nl wrote:@Klick: I feel that vca you did is a little short-sighted. I wouldn't expect scum to vote the way you described it, then again, I don't really know how to do vca well so maybe there is something to it. How do you figure I'd be experienced enough to not kill Mist?
You strike me as a player that would atleastthink killing Mist is not the optimal option. She wasn't pushing hard on anyone or anything, and people thought she looked scummy. You yourself actually said you wanted to look at her more closely in the next dayphase, in Post #503. It also doesn't seem like you had a scumread on Mist, if what you said in #503 was your actual thoughts. If that's the case, you wouldn't kill her aiming for scum. Therefore, I see no motivation for you to kill her.
In post 624, hayatoBL wrote:I'm probably just not bright enough to put the dots together, as I don't see how everything fits here. I can further elaborate my issue on your previous post and there will be more arrows than before, but meh, I don't feel like it's going to be fruitful.
So, I'm going to ask for a second opinion instead.Maybe Klick(or anyone else)?Does that post makes sense and is it a valid response to my issue on him or is he just trying to avoid adressing the issue by putting a lot of words to seem like he did?
I will feel somewhat incompetent, if the post actually made sense.
I am pretty confused on TheCow in general, admittedly, but I also think he believes what he's saying and isn't just spouting off random theory. I suspect Cow thought Mist was scum, and that combined with Radja being off the ConMan wagon would be what made the vote analysis interesting? That's just a guess. Regardless, Cow's thoughts seem genuine to me, whether they're from town or scum.
@everyone not voting Prolapsed Brain: ISO him. Then vote him.-
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In post 632, Firebringer wrote:Vote the cow to end this day!!! One less scum hopefully cross kill happens so towns got a chance
You're not voting Cow?
Firebringer, you should join me on Prolapsed.
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