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Post Post #4325 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 5:49 pm

Post by Titus »

@Sinsun,

You don't have to be the first or last on a wagon to "lead" it. Timing is semantics. Leading is about the choices made and the wagons people want dead. Thor lead it but I pushed conversation around that wagon while you were hellbent on mislynching me and ignoring Hermit even existed. For liking Thor's posting, you're certainly ignoring his #4312.

Not sure what you claim makes zero sense. Pronouns again.
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Post Post #4326 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:21 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 4321, Titus wrote:That is the pronoun which confused me.

Reference the previous post 'that' = the awareness that Sinsum would have been the only scum to try to counterwagon you.

In post 4317, Titus wrote:Lynching PerV is better than Klingon. PerV confirmed Klingon as scum if he's town and gathers much more information about the setup if we are wrong. Lynching Klingon and being wrong just nets us PerV scum. Lynching PerV and getting scum shows that PerV was trying to buddy/sneak through a buddy. Lynching Klingon and getting scum doesn't confirm PerV's information as true, as you said he could be bussing.

So, basically, you're saying that if a cop claimed a guilty on someone in non-lylo/mylo you'd lynch the cop claim first?
Because that seems to be what you're saying to me.

In post 4317, Titus wrote:None. Scum were already on my wagon PerV. Town wouldn't vote me, because of Hermit's slip. CW's are about the choices town and scum making, not chronology of specific votes.

To be a counterwagon you need to...y'know, "counter" something.
Even if they're all scum - you still wouldn't be a counterwagon to Constantine - you'd be a counterwagon to Pere.

In post 4317, Titus wrote:I don't know what you mean by a "Three Stooges Team". I'm familiar with who the three stooges are, but I don't how that applies to mafia.

You're basically describing them as having some atrocious play, so I'm wondering why you wouldn't suppose the possibility of further atrocious play.
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Post Post #4327 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:25 pm

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In post 4317, Titus wrote:Lynching PerV is better than Klingon. PerV confirmed Klingon as scum if he's town and gathers much more information about the setup if we are wrong. Lynching Klingon and being wrong just nets us PerV scum. Lynching PerV and getting scum shows that PerV was trying to buddy/sneak through a buddy. Lynching Klingon and getting scum doesn't confirm PerV's information as true, as you said he could be bussing.

Like, the more I read this the weirder it gets to me.

You are arguing that there is 'getting Pere and learning that he was trying to buddy/sneak through a buddy' but at the same time argue that if Klingon flips town (which would result in getting Pere) then we *only* get Pere...why wouldn't we also learn about this buddy/sneak buddy.

Also, even if it is a buss on Pere's point, I still fail to see the logic to lynch Pere first of the two scum. Does it really matter which scum we lynch first at that stage? Because you seem to think it does.
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Post Post #4328 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:27 pm

Post by Thor665 »

Like, isn't it worth it to lynch a town Treestump in non mylo/lylo to net an assured scum lynch the next day?
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Post Post #4329 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 6:56 pm

Post by Klingoncelt »

In post 4311, Thor665 wrote:@Klingon - as town and treestump, and as a way to test Pere's info more (since he just did help nail a scum...not that we needed outing for that I would have thought, but still ;) ) would you support lynch of yourself today - that way when you flip town we know for a fact that Pere is scum and can lynch him tomorrow?

Functionally we have the spare lynch at this stage unless you are of the mindset that we started with more than 5 allied scum.


My mind isn't
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Let me think about it.
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Post Post #4330 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:24 pm

Post by Titus »

@Thor,

In a lylo/mylo + 1 mislynched situation, which I believe is the situation we have here, the more information the cop has the more objectively they should be the lynch. If it's one guilty, toss up. Two results (assuming no GF), lean towards cop all things being considered. If the cop is game breaking, lynch the cop. Sometimes, the cop lies.

Without the mislynched to spare, the cop gives better ideas on what the teams are. Cop claims and votes early.

Here we have a setup, where if PV is right, his lynch settles the game. Klingon is confscum. Then we mass claim. If PV is scum, then we save ourselves a huge headache.

If we lynchKlingon, we don't know if PV was bussing or honest if scum. If Klingon flips town, we gave scum a free setup mislynched based on something full of swiss cheese holes and get PV scum.

TLDR: Klingon flip doesn't confirm anything about PV's setup claims.
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Post Post #4331 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:31 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 4329, Klingoncelt wrote:My mind isn't
set
on there being 5+ Scum, but I just don't know... and at this point in the game I'm nervous about lynching a Townie to catch a Scum.

Let me think about it.

Well, for starters, we had a 21 player start.
There are 10 alive now.
Scum have lost 2.
Yesterday scum didn't win with 12 alive, so they had, at most, 5 alive at that point. So, maximum 4 alive today.
If you think they have 4 and a 6 start, you should oppose the plan.
Otherwise there are only 3 scum (or less) alive right now, and your lynch will net us Pere and you can still help scumhunt.

So, frankly, number of scum left alive is your only debate point.

In post 4330, Titus wrote:Here we have a setup, where if PV is right, his lynch settles the game. Klingon is confscum. Then we mass claim. If PV is scum, then we save ourselves a huge headache.

So you would support massclaim after a Pere town flip but not prior?

In post 4330, Titus wrote:If we lynchKlingon, we don't know if PV was bussing or honest if scum. If Klingon flips town, we gave scum a free setup mislynched based on something full of swiss cheese holes and get PV scum.

If PV flips town we give scum the same thing - I fail to spot the difference.

In post 4330, Titus wrote:TLDR: Klingon flip doesn't confirm anything about PV's setup claims.

That does bring us back to the concept that, to a degree, he's a cop who has handed us a correct guilty (albeit sloppily and late, so I can understand you issue...slightly)
But you don't think it's worth it to test a second one just to see?
Because I will agree it doesn't "prove" but, frankly, a double bus would be pretty ballsy, and I'd be willing to keep sheeping till he's proven wrong.
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Post Post #4332 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:33 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 4329, Klingoncelt wrote:My mind isn't set on there being 5+ Scum, but I just don't know... and at this point in the game I'm nervous about lynching a Townie to catch a Scum.

Let me think about it.

How about you discuss with me who you think is basically assured 'not scum' at this stage?
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Post Post #4333 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:37 pm

Post by Titus »

Yes, if Pere is town and Oracle, I would support a massclaim. I just think he's full of shit.

I doubt Pere is town and fake claiming at this point. I would expect him to revoke or change it beyond mere shots. The changing from unlimited o two shots irks the fuck of of me.

We can't have Pere give us another result, he is out of questions.
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Post Post #4334 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 7:51 pm

Post by Thor665 »

In post 4333, Titus wrote:Yes, if Pere is town and Oracle, I would support a massclaim. I just think he's full of Smurf.

How did scum him come up with that color coded post?
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Post Post #4335 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:04 pm

Post by Titus »

Scum can prepare fakeclaims. Doubly so if they can ask what our PRs are.
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Post Post #4336 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:19 pm

Post by Thor665 »

So you think he is an Oracle and did indeed ask what PRs were in the game, and then knew ahead of time to set up a claim for a potential bus on one of his scumbuddies?
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Post Post #4337 (ISO) » Thu Aug 06, 2015 8:43 pm

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PV didn't orchestrate any bus Thor. He was off ika and Hermit. #confused
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Post Post #4338 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:30 am

Post by davesaz »

With daytalk, orchestrate doesn't necessarily involve voting.
But I'm confused now, if you think PV is scum then why argue against him orchestrating, and if you think he's town then why is lynching him better?
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Post Post #4339 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:40 am

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Dave, if PV was deliberately bussing, he would have said.. Ooh roleblocker claim and voted it. He also would have made sure we knew in no uncertain terms that Hermit was scum. Instead, getting him to talk about Hermit was like pulling teeth. That's not consistent with a bus.

As for lynching PV, I think he's scum (but not as likely as Sinsun). If PV is telling the truth, lynching him gets us a confscum, and a mass claim breaking strategy similar to Playing With Elements. Provided there is one PR remaining and two vts, scum create two definite pools based on their fake claim. I would presume Klingon wouldn't bother with a fakeclaim.
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Post Post #4340 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:46 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 4337, Titus wrote:PV didn't orchestrate any bus Thor. He was off ika and Hermit. #confused

:neutral:

In post 4232, PeregrineV wrote:
Vote: St Constantine the Hermit


He is scum.


In post 4339, Titus wrote:Dave, if PV was deliberately bussing, he would have said.. Ooh roleblocker claim and voted it. He also would have made sure we knew in no uncertain terms that Hermit was scum. Instead, getting him to talk about Hermit was like pulling teeth. That's not consistent with a bus.

:neutral:

In post 4232, PeregrineV wrote:
Vote: St Constantine the Hermit


He is scum.


In post 4339, Titus wrote:As for lynching PV, I think he's scum (but not as likely as Sinsun). If PV is telling the truth, lynching him gets us a confscum, and a mass claim breaking strategy similar to Playing With Elements. Provided there is one PR remaining and two vts, scum create two definite pools based on their fake claim. I would presume Klingon wouldn't bother with a fakeclaim.

I'm still asking you to explain his breadcrumb post to me in the context of him being scum.
I will agree Simsun makes more sense as scum with that you're saying you believe, but am also still asking you to explain why it took you so long to vote her.
I am willing to buy that Klingon is a treestump (Pere claims this also) I fail to really see how that confirms him as town.
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Post Post #4341 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:08 am

Post by davesaz »

I missed part of this post before.
In post 4234, PeregrineV wrote:
There is one more town PR.
It's not a doctor.
Town also enjoys 2 scoops of
Vanilla
ice cream.
If Gumball is not the last PR, then the last PR can claim, and the rest can be safely lynched.

Do you know what the last town PR is? Just a yes/no at this time please.
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Post Post #4342 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:10 am

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@Thor, These VCs need work. I just looked and I didn't see PV on Hermit. Still that was a forced hand vote at best. The Hermit slip did not appear planned, nor was it advantageous. If it was planed, as you are proposing, then it only would have happened if they though scum was going to be lynched anyway. If they thought I was going to be a mislynched, there is zero reason for a coordinated slip.

I am explaining his crumb. He's setting up a narrative. I do this all the time as scum. If you know your fake claim is X, then you can crumb accordingly.

PereV gives more information if I am wrong, Sinsun got a vote, Klingon's case was at least valid, and his behavior is scummier. All things being equal, I would vote Pere.
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Post Post #4343 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:11 am

Post by Titus »

Yet all things are not equal.
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Post Post #4344 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:33 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 4342, Titus wrote:@Thor, These VCs need work. I just looked and I didn't see PV on Hermit.

I will agree that the mod's votecounts require more effort than some other mods to get a clear understanding of what's going on from them.

In post 4342, Titus wrote:Still that was a forced hand vote at best. The Hermit slip did not appear planned, nor was it advantageous. If it was planed, as you are proposing, then it only would have happened if they though scum was going to be lynched anyway. If they thought I was going to be a mislynched, there is zero reason for a coordinated slip.

I am not arguing that the slip was coordinated.
Frankly, I don't even really consider it a 'slip' and have missed how other people decided it was - unless we're just talking the 'knew he blocked Pere but isn't sure who he blocked' thing or the 'not RBing on the lightning rod night' thing, but I thought he looked scummy as hell long before that.
If Pere's vote was a forced hand, couldn't the same be said about you and everyone not voting him prior to his claim?

In post 4342, Titus wrote:I am explaining his crumb. He's setting up a narrative. I do this all the time as scum. If you know your fake claim is X, then you can crumb accordingly.

That's still a pretty intense crumb, and also worked in a bus on a player who hadn't 'slipped' yet - that seems...unlikely, yeah?

In post 4342, Titus wrote:PereV gives more information if I am wrong, Sinsun got a vote, Klingon's case was at least valid, and his behavior is scummier. All things being equal, I would vote Pere.

So you are stating that Klingon looks scummy? Okay, didn't now you thought that.
I'm still not following your desire to lynch Pere, really, he has a really clever confluence of happy coincidence and insightful pre-play to be scum at this stage, doesn't he?
Did he set it all up in reaction to the cop? Or was it just random derp brilliance, or what?

You're accussing Pere of kind of floating around in his story and being hard to pin down about thoughts on Hermit.
I very much am feeling the same way about you - I feel like I'm having to pull teeth to get you to explain the logic of how you reached your thoughts, and the answers usually seem really wispy and ghostish.
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Post Post #4345 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:41 am

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@Thor, the rb thing is precisely what I was talking about when I said the slip.

Also, there's exit hatches. Crumb, set it up. If he townreads Hermit, you'd bet your ass we would be hearing about the distinction between 2 shot roleblocker and roleblocker.

I am not sure how I am being wispy or ghostish at all. I think this is another case of town (you) not wanting to follow the better EV play because it disagrees with your worldview. I just finished the same situation in Dating game. Persivul used the same rationale you did here despite me being clear open and honest about the better play.

Lynching PV guarantees us a scum lynch within two days. So if you're playing based on EV, that's where your vote should go. Klingon gets nothing.

I meant Sinsun's behavior was scummier in my last post. Misplaced modifier.
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Post Post #4346 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:47 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 4345, Titus wrote:Also, there's exit hatches. Crumb, set it up. If he townreads Hermit, you'd bet your Smurf we would be hearing about the distinction between 2 shot roleblocker and roleblocker.

I can sort of get behind this, but the scum didn't flip 2-shot. If he had I would be down to lynch Pere right now. But he didn't.

In post 4342, Titus wrote:I am not sure how I am being wispy or ghostish at all. I think this is another case of town (you) not wanting to follow the better EV play because it disagrees with your worldview. I just finished the same situation in Dating game. Persivul used the same rationale you did here despite me being clear open and honest about the better play.

I'm not sure you're showing it as a better play. Currently your argument against lynching the Treestump first (he might be town) applies equally to lynching Pere first (he might be town), so I am at a loss as to why one is "better" in your opinion outside of actual town.scum reads of the two slots.

That's a debate of read - not a debate of strategy.
What am I missing?

In post 4342, Titus wrote:Lynching PV guarantees us a scum lynch within two days.

So does a Klingon lynch, unless you're saying they can both be town...is that what you're saying?

In post 4342, Titus wrote:I meant Sinsun's behavior was scummier in my last post. Misplaced modifier.

My only issue with the slot is the smarminess of it currently, but I could see that coming from town. Is there anything else?
I am not counting the 'counterwagon' on you as particularly scummy at this stage since I don't have your role PM.
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Post Post #4347 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 5:57 am

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@Thor, You mean other than the absolute tunnel on my slot, melodrama, her "withholding" the use of her priest ability on me, her complaint about her team not having any mislynched plus the tunnel on me, her wking of Pere.

I do agree that both PV and Kligon are unlikely to be town. Yet, lynching Klingon and she flips scum doesn't confirm Pere as telling the truth. He could be bussing Klingon. That would allow Pere to slip through the cracks because he told us the role of his scumbuddies. We would still have the "was Pere bussing debate". As a practical matter, a changing number of shots is a policy scumread to me since InuYasha. You pulled the same stunt in Aero's game and I immediate ly voted you. If Pere is town, scum are unlikely to shoot Pere because it confirms Pere as telling the truth.

If deciding between Pere and Klingon, I would vote PereV.
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Post Post #4348 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:10 am

Post by Thor665 »

In post 4347, Titus wrote:@Thor, You mean other than the absolute tunnel on my slot, melodrama, her "withholding" the use of her priest ability on me, her complaint about her team not having any mislynched plus the tunnel on me, her wking of Pere.

Tunneling is not scummy.
Melodrama is not scummy.
I don't get how the priest thing is scummy - clarify?
I don't get how the mislynch thing is scummy and don't even recall that conversation - clarify?
White Knighting falls under the smarminess for me, yes, I'm aware of that - but could easily see town doing the same.

In post 4347, Titus wrote:I do agree that both PV and Kligon are unlikely to be town. Yet, lynching Klingon and she flips scum doesn't confirm Pere as telling the truth. He could be bussing Klingon. That would allow Pere to slip through the cracks because he told us the role of his scumbuddies. We would still have the "was Pere bussing debate".

So you then agree that, functionally, it doesn't matter what order we lynch them in? Your only issue is a desire to lynch Pere.
Want to lynch Klingon today?

In post 4347, Titus wrote: As a practical matter, a changing number of shots is a policy scumread to me since InuYasha. You pulled the same stunt in Aero's game and I immediate ly voted you. If Pere is town, scum are unlikely to shoot Pere because it confirms Pere as telling the truth.

In Aero's game you voted me for refusal to claim number of shots - not for having my shot number change. Do you consider those two things identical? I don't.
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Sinsun1
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Post Post #4349 (ISO) » Fri Aug 07, 2015 6:15 am

Post by Sinsun1 »

~Smirks~ Titus, you just walked yourself into a trap.

You said that if PereV is scum, he could have set up the fake claims, but are unwilling to vote Kling RIGHT NOW. PereV knew there was a treestump before Kling claimed. So if PereV set the crumb up for the fake claims, you are saying Kling is scum and thus should be voting her.

But instead you're continuing with your tunnel on me. I am at least going objectively about this to catch sure scum, yet you aren't. If PereV is town, Kling is scum, if PereV is scum, Kling is scum. Why?

Case 1: PereV town.
PereV knows treestump is mafia, Kling is treestump.

Case 2: PereV is scum.
PereV set up a crumb of mafia roles to gain town credit, Kling claimed that mafia role and is thus a bussed scum.

Both cases result in Kling being scum. So please, do explain why you aren't voting Kling right now.

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