Mini 1699 - #swag wars: THE empire strikes back (swaggedout)

[Wickedestjr]

ffery, what do you think of 2939, given my response?

[pieguyn]

When I saw the oversoul flip, my immediate thought was that remaining scum were nacho/you/redcoyote or nacho/notsci/pie, with the second grouping lower probability simply because nacho doesn't usually ignore his scumbuddies and he came pretty close to ignoring both of them for most of day 1/2/3.

I realize this means fuckall if you think I'm scum with him, but I think notsci is practically confirmed town even outside of the interactions with me. for a few reasons:

he maintained Nacho as a weak scum read since D3 start. there's *really* nothing at that point in particular that I couldn't see coming from him as a Nacho partner, but I think it makes enough sense either way given the fact he was preoccupied with me for the most part. the thing is, after we blew up at each other and he read me as town he immediately doubled down on the Nacho read. that's a town thought process and I highly doubt it was faked.

he was the first vote on the Nacho wagon with the reasoning that he was "sheeping you". the thing with this is, you weren't even voting Nacho at that point - and when you did, it wasn't a "to lynch" vote, it was a reaction vote. so if he bussed there, he did it entirely unnecessarily. on the other hand, I could easily enough see it from him-town who has no idea what to think about the game anymore and so he didn't notice you weren't actually pushing Nacho (which would make sense given it was right after the huge shitstorm between him/me). after that, he decided Nacho was scum on his own accord, so the vote makes sense.

in general, I think the progression there was fairly natural. I'd be really surprised if he approached the Nacho read in the way that he did if he was scum with him.

[pieguyn]

1. Um no that's not true, try again. You're being ridiculous. Did I "maintain them as my top two for the entire day" or did I "not really commit to either" ? You can't argue both in the same sentence. That's a contradiction.

no, it's really not

the entire point is that, despite reading both Nacho and Oversoul as scum, you left the door wide open as to which, specifically, you thought was more likely to be scum. this allows you to vote whichever one looks like it's more likely to go through, or move your vote around for strategic reasons (ex: looking like you're open to a Nacho lynch but then voting Oversoul at the end - which is what I think you did here), and so forth. and I think that in this case, there is scum motivation here in that it allowed you to look like you were open to a Nacho lynch, but not actually doing anything to lynch him, which is fairly typical of scum distancing from each other.

2. This also doesn't make sense. You think I was distancing from Nacho, but you also think I didn't want the attention if he got lynched. That's a contradiction.

no, it isn't

the entire point is that you were distancing from him BECAUSE you didn't want to draw negative attention if you got lynched. that is kinda sorta the entire point of distancing. but no, I don't see anything in your posts D3 that indicates that you explicitly would have preferred a Nacho lynch over an Oversoul lynch (which is what I said in my first point).

you maintained both of them as scum reads. you voted Nacho right at the start of D3, then voted Oversoul because of claimgate and for supposedly ignoring your question. then you voted Nacho again for lying about his claim. then you put Oversoul at L-1 at the end. nowhere did you explicitly take a stance either way, ex. "I'd significantly prefer a Nacho lynch over an Oversoul lynch" or "I'd significantly prefer an Oversoul lynch over a Nacho lynch", or attempt to convince anyone on the Oversoul wagon to join you on the Nacho wagon, or anything along those lines.

so where in here am I supposed to get the impression you weren't intending to leave Oversoul open as a lynch option here?

3. You can't argue that my Nacho-push was weaker than my Oversoul and then criticize my Oversoul push in the same sentence. That's a contradiction.

no, it isn't, and you are either misinterpreting or deliberately misrepresenting what I said there. I did not (and never intended to) criticize the reasoning behind your Oversoul push; all I'm saying is that your Oversoul push was significantly stronger than your Nacho push.

[pieguyn]

Hmm... on the topic of bad Nacho votes - what would you think if a player pushed the bandwagon and then unvoted for weak reasoning ? Oh hey that was you...

did you miss the part where I wanted to wait for Tammy to catch up and give her thoughts on the situation re: Nacho and where Nacho informed me I was misreading a part of why I thought he could be scum?

I was pretty clearly trying to work through the read at the end and then Oversoul self hammered before I had much of a chance to do anything about it. I think the progression here is fairly obvious if you read my posts.

[implosion]

Yeah, couldn't actually really get to this today since last day before leaving and packing and whatnot.

I'm more or less v/la until Monday at least.

[notscience]

I had something I wanted to talk to ffery and pie about, but i don't remember what it was.

[pieguyn]

the thing with this game is I'm very very very sure that both of {notsci, ffery} are town and I don't see myself reversing either of these reads unless something drastic happens. so, *if* either of {Wicked, RC} are town here, they need to convince me that I'm wrong about one of these reads. the exception here is if we happen to be in 10-2-1. (and no, saying that notsci would be capable of faking his reaction to me if we had planned it out as scum does not apply bc I know that situation is impossible)

this is somewhat of a reach out, I suppose.

[notscience]

I think Wicked is the reason we didn't lynch RC at the end of day 2.

Discuss.

[pieguyn]

that actually makes a lot of sense.

I'm reading through it again and Wicked had a lot of posts where he kinda sorta token-opposed the RC miller claim, but then he didn't actually vote him until it was too late to do anything about it.

[notscience]

I'm not sure I want to no lynch anymore.

[fferyllt]

From Nacho's ISO

post 150

Townreads: Layla, Vinkah, Nosci, Tammy, me.

Doesn't like Gnomeo's tammy vote.

Pushes back at notsci's RC read.

Talks to but doesn't read: wickedestjr. Doesn't mention pieguy, implosion or RC (outside of notsci's read of RC)

post 238

This continues the discussion with notsci about RC, with more defense of RC. I remember reading this carefully as it unfolded and feeling like nacho's comments about what RC's scum game would look like compared to what he was doing were in line with my thoughts about him. Looking back at this I don't feel as good about it. In both the games I played with Scum-RC, he picked apparently weak or unknown players to attack on day. I'm wondering if he would have thought notsci was a weak link in this game. The comment about being unsure on day 1 translating to town is interesting.

Nacho on day 3. in response to my comment about how he will push one townie into the fire while pulling another townie out, said that he does this to gain allies so he can get enough mislynches. Early day 1, he defended Cheetory (boonskiies) and pushed Gnomeo.

245 This is disappointment that implosion unvoted Gnomeo (right after voting him) and voting pieguy instead.

274 here he pushes back at Cheetory regarding wicked, and pushes back at Layla about Gnomeo

399 here he votes cheetory, starting a new wagon. at this point the two largest wagons were Anen (3) and Gnomeo (2), so nothing strategic here in terms of protecting a teammate.

501 - asks if he's crazy for townreading RC for his comment about players (specifically nacho/me) sticking up for him while he was gone. :/

he runs into roadblocks with the cheetory wagon (specifically Implosion, then moves to Anen.

657 this is one of several day 1 posts where I feel like he was kinda mocking town :/ describing his scum game, projecting it onto Cheetory, then deciding to drop it.

658 - he encourages notsci to push pieguy. This doesn't look like a scum/scum interaction. And suggesting he push a teammate is probably not something he'd do?

659 - he liked the slow pace. ugh.

660 RC's scumpile is Anen, Layla and notsci. Nacho says they're easy targets but he doesn't disagree.

679 he toys with the idea of voting notsci, doesn't like his vote on Pieguy (this is after he encouraged notsci to vote pieguy in 658)

This ends day 1. his posts this game day don't give me a notsci-partner feel at all. he defended RC a couple times, which could be a partner thing.

[pieguyn]

Pushes back at notsci's RC read.

I remember him doing this to me too. 154

[RedCoyote]

VOTE: No Lynch

[notscience]

Pushes back at notsci's RC read.

Why is this bolded

[fferyllt]

because it was the first thing that jumped out at me re nacho/RC, and it is the start of a stance that paralleled my meta defense of RC.

[RedCoyote]

I really don't want to play this game anymore. I can't even look at it without feeling distraught. What are we doing, ns?

[RedCoyote]

I'm officially fine with a Wicked lynch.

Why? Please tell me it's not because of pie's last post.

But this is a surprising change considering there are still two living players outside yesterday's town bloc...

I put all my eggs in that Oversoul basket. I thought I made that clear...

[notscience]

Why is it me you're choosing to follow RC?

[notscience]

Also, RC's posts today remind me of

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7082367

[RedCoyote]

Sigh...

Nevermind. Just forget it. I'm done.

[notscience]

RC you are blindly following me and you should (as pie instructed you and wicked to do) be trying to convince me one of my townreads is wrong instead of just saying you'll blindly follow me when you're one of my two picks.

[notscience]

Like hell I don't know why as either alignment you aren't doing that

[fferyllt]

ffery, what do you think of 2939, given my response?

I felt like you were making a hairsplitting argument against pieguyn's post. But, I'm worried that I'm confbiasing. hoping to find some clarity through a reread.

Also, RC's posts today remind me of

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p7082367

That's...interesting.

In the first game I played with RC I challenged him on a post that sounded scum-perspective on day 2 or 3, and I got an apology. I wondered at the time if apologizing is a scum tell for him. It was really the only post of his that I could look back at afterwards and think "I should have made a bigger deal about this".

[notscience]

How long ago was this?

[notscience]

There's something else bothering me about the two games-

He came into this game asking for me to be PL'd whereas there I don't see any evidence of it.

So that's bothering me.