Greater Idea Mafia (Endgame)

[Natirasha]

They shot every single obvtown player. I will admit, I did not think Ank was as town as I said I did, but I needed support from them.

Didn't shoot me!

[hiplop]

i made one post and you called me for lack of content today

thats pretty savage, dude.

I usually dont make big posts right after a flip

[ika]

Player Name	L-6	L-5	L-4	L-3	L-2	L-1	Hammer
Fro99er
Luna Fox
Greys holly	luna fox	shiro	rabble rabble rabble
Natirasha
Shiro
Hiplop
Inquisitor
Level 1-1
T S O
Vedith
West9
rabble rabble rabble
Kthxbye

(expired on 2015-10-16 00:00:00)

mod notes

If people would like a color for their vote go ahead and tell me, it reset each day
If people would like a regualr VC (the box one let me know and i can do it too)

[Kthxbye]

Why savage? Possibly because I just lost a shit ton of allies and I'm up against two fucking scum teams and need to figure out who to trust. Why can't you post something non-defensive is what my question is. Looks suspect as fuck tbh

[West9]

Current VCA:
Greys holly: luna fox, shiro, rabble rabble rabble

These were on Verdith wagon (the counter wagon to known scum Delenn) before the Delenn flip AND on the Aristo wagon (known town) at the end of D1.

[snip snip]

Cross reference that with the above and that leaves a good chance for a Were to be found in Shiro, west9, RRR and luna.

I actually agree with everyone on this list that isn't me, but that's just because I think the group mostly likely to be scum was the cross section between Ari wagoners and Vedith wagoners.

Skimming those three isos:

I understand where the Ari case is coming from, since he seemed pretty adamant about the delenn wagon in its early days. Then when it looked like it was losing steam he jumped off of it and pushed for verdith.

looking at Ari's ISO, the narrative about ari's play presented here is clearly wrong.

engh actually i'm super okay with luna's "let's just end this day" ari votes.

something about shiro's kaboose push, vedith vote, and "kill Delenn N1" advocacy are bothersome, but i am falling asleep right now so i'll deal with that tomorrow

West9 claiming to have discarded Cop and chose VT on D1? I'd be down to lynch that for that alone. I'll have to look back and when W9 claimed this.

Why tho?
Also, holy shit, W9 is a great nickname. Thank you for this gift.

[Fro99er]

Alright I'm here.

First

I do not buy that Mafia Compulsive Hider was an option for them in G2 AND G3 with myself also having the option of Mafia Compulsive Hider on G3 as well. I don't know what the odds of this happening randomly, but looking at the list of options that could have been rolled, it's fucking super low....low enough to warrant today's lynch.

This is the stupidest fucking argument.
hi
The probability of rolling three (or more) mafia hiders in 123 rolls (instead of 126, because I'm assuming if you roll mafia compulsive hider in one game, the moderator won't let you roll the same role twice in the same game...otherwise if this is allowable it's 126, but I'm using the lowest probability odds for kthxbye's sake) with 146 different possible choices is given by the binomial distribution.

I could write out the formula, but instead I'll just say go here to calculate it for yourself:
http://vassarstats.net/binomialX.html

I've done that, and here are the results...


(note: n = number of rolls, k = 3 rolls or more being Maf Comp Hid, p = 1/146)

This says there is a 5.3% chance of there being at least 3 Mafia Compulsive Hiders in 126 rolls.

If we want to limit it to only half the rolls (so 3 in 63 rolls = 3*21 players), then the probability is 0.9%. Hardly impossible. And that's for one individual role. If we consider there are 117 roles where this could happen, then the odds of seeing at least ONE of these pop up three times is given again by the binomial probability where n = 117, k = 1, p = 0.009. Calculate that and you get 65%.

So yes, there is a 65% chance of seeing one of the unique roles rolled 3 times or more in 63 rolls.


Also - I am a statistician for a living.

[Fro99er]

Assuming there are two, three person anti town factions

Why are you assuming this?

[Fro99er]

If we want to limit it to only half the rolls (so 3 in 63 rolls = 3*21 players), then the probability is 0.9%. Hardly impossible. And that's for one individual role. If we consider there are 117 roles where this could happen, then the odds of seeing at least ONE of these pop up three times is given again by the binomial probability where n = 117, k = 1, p = 0.009. Calculate that and you get 65%.

So yes, there is a 65% chance of seeing one of the unique roles rolled 3 times or more in 63 rolls.

Whoops...I want to use exactly one, not 1 or more, because to have more than 1 means then the probability is less than 0.9% for the rest because you'll need it to appear 3 in 60 rolls, etc.

But yeah, for exactly one...it's still 36.9%...still, it's hardly improbable that we see at least one of the unique roles rolled three times.

[Fro99er]

Anti you really think rabble is most likely scum over fro9 and luna?

VOTE: rabble

What changed your mind in those 40 posts?

[Fro99er]

5 deaths?!?!? LOL

Not a town reaction.

[Fro99er]

VOTE: hiplop

[Fro99er]

like give me some time holy shit its not like ive been lurking this game like you

How much time should we give you? Your iso is complete crap. No analysis in there whatsoever. Just "this guy is scum" or "that guys is scum".

And a whole bunch of other fluff.

[Inquisitor]

I have skimmed through everything and need to do some ISO's on people I'm not sure about but if Hiplop was part of the Hippy Love hydra, I had a townread on them reading through. Even if Hiplop is playing bad right now, there's still all the stuff the hydra posted to consider and they seemed town to me. Did anyone not consider Hippy Love to be town?

~SW

[T S O]

I'd appreciate if you and Nati either caught very quickly or forwent that process entirely. I want Shiro dead today - if you could get back to me on that, it'll be far more productive than reading 20 pages of me trying to convince people to vote scum.

[T S O]

Both yours and Nati's slots are mainly null - I would scumread Nati, but shaddowez seems less likely to be strategically lurking when he actually ended up replacing. I am hoping for you to do good things so I can townread you.

[T S O]

I don't want hiplop on the table today - it won't happen, and that's the end of it. Frogger, you can camp your vote there if you want, my opinion of your slot couldn't be any worse in terms of alignment.

[T S O]

It seems likely that purple hero shot Elvis - I find it curious that they didn't shoot rabble, but it seems likely they felt rabble was an easier lynch to push so went for Elvis.

[T S O]

That points quite strongly to rabble-scum as well, really.

[Fro99er]

I don't want hiplop on the table today - it won't happen, and that's the end of it. Frogger, you can camp your vote there if you want, my opinion of your slot couldn't be any worse in terms of alignment.

What, as third party?

[T S O]

I admit - I misplayed in stating my townreads. I don't think it's a coincidence that the entire townbloc was decimated in the way it happened.

[T S O]

Frogger - there are two scenarios. Either you are scum, and Salamence was hard-defending Titus (this is exactly the sort of play I would expect Salamence to make as scum), or you're a third party and Salamence is just terrible. The former seems more likely. Your absence increases that, by the way - I would expect you to lurk more as scum than as town.

[T S O]

Rabble or Shiro - who's more likely to be scum for you?

[Inquisitor]

On readthrough, I have Shiro as scummy and West9 and Greninja-now Fro99er.

HippyLove/Hiplop, Luna Fox, TSO-I have as town so far. kthxbye leans town based on recent postings.

Shadowez-Natirasha is null. I'm still trying to figure out the scumreads on Grey's Holly as they look pretty null as well. An explanation on that from someone would help a lot.

Vedith is town. A shit ton of people I was townreading are dead now.

rabble. level 1-1 I'm not really sure on. I could go either way.

This is just rough reads, not fully caught up yet.

Did I miss anyone or say something about someone not here anymore? Would surprise me, LOL.

This game is a pain to read/catch up on. Just saying.

~SW

[Fro99er]

I assure you it's the latter. And as mentioned, I was essentially site V/LA last weekend and then when I came in to play I found out my hydra partner was kicked out of the game.

[T S O]

Shiro's knowledge about Saulus feels extremely strongly like a scumslip.