Mini 1730: Suikoden U-Pick GAME OVER

[wgeurts]

Drixx, we have two mislynches so messing up a lynch on Klingoncelt is no problem. Sometimes when everything points to someone being scum they are scum, and if she isn't we have two more lynches to sort that out.

[Reasonably Rational]

Drixx, we have two mislynches so messing up a lynch on Klingoncelt is no problem. Sometimes when everything points to someone being scum they are scum, and if she isn't we have two more lynches to sort that out.

I'm not personally convinced she's scum. And I'm not really comfortable with the "oh we have plenty of mislynches" approach either. In Steven Universe, we got the town into position where we had a 100% win chance, and a claimed town miller bucked his lynch and lynched someone who was cleared as town and that bullshit selfish move on his part gave the scum the game eventually.

Our current "plan" is nowhere near as good as the position we were in with that game, and you and we are likely to be killed off if the game continues after today. I'd like to just kill scum and hopefully see a town win

[Varsoon]

"Oh, more talk of war. You can fight it out amongst yourselves. I've had enough."

-Elenor Silverberg,

Suikoden IV

VOTECOUNT 4.02

Klingoncelt (1):

wgeurts

FireKari (1):

Ranger

Not Voting (5):

FireKari, Klingoncelt, Elbirn, Reasonably Rational, Suzune

With 7 Alive, it takes 4 to Lynch.
Deadline

: (expired on 2015-12-06 07:00:00)

[Elbirn]

VOTECOUNT 1.20 : LYNCH

LicketyQuickety (

LYNCH

):

Ranger, Suzune, Firekari, pistachi0n, Jeanne11, Titus, Elbirn, wgeurts

Titus (2):

Klingoncelt, LicketyQuickety

Ranger (1):

Blackest Magick

Bright (1):

Reasonably Rational

Blackest Magick (1):

BRantz

wgeurts (1):

Bright

Not Voting (0):

VOTECOUNT 2.04 : LYNCH

Blackest Magick (

LYNCH

):

Ranger, Elbirn, Jeanne11, Suzune, BRantz, wgeurts

Reasonably Rational (1):

FireKari

Ranger (1):

pistachi0n

Not Voting (3):

Blackest Magick, Klingoncelt, Reasonably Rational

Disclaimer I'm bad at this game idk how vca works but I like to toy with analyzing lynches

I don't think suzune or ranger bus both of their buddies

I don't think double voting firekari gets put on the same team as pseudo doublevoting LQ

That leaves klingon, and I think it's suspect that the night she uses her vig there's no scum kill. If she were a scum vig, she'd only be able to do one kill yes? If I'm not mistaken the flavor for the vig was different which points to her doing it, sure, but where's the scum faction kill

----


Oh and look I know you guys have some odd plan to just not talk and then talk all at once or whatever but that doesnt...really work for me, I'm a phone and I can't just like save a draft of all of my thoughts and writings and post it when we're all online, which won't happen anyway. Sooo I've gotta just say things when I can and when I want, ya feel me?

[Ranger]

We'd rather put the work in before scum has a chance to night kill us to just figure it out and get the win done.

If scum nightkilled you, then they'd be confirming FireKari as town.
Confirming FireKari as town, while having me as confirmed town and one other mason as confirmed town, would doom them to losing via POE alone. (Five alive, two conftown aside from me.)

So, you can be assured you won't die tonight.

[Reasonably Rational]

We'd rather put the work in before scum has a chance to night kill us to just figure it out and get the win done.

If scum nightkilled you, then they'd be confirming FireKari as town.
Confirming FireKari as town, while having me as confirmed town and one other mason as confirmed town, would doom them to losing via POE alone. (Five alive, two conftown aside from me.)

So, you can be assured you won't die tonight.

You are far from confirmed town.

-Cerb

[FireKari]

Whatev, guess it doesn't really matter anymore, though we still want to hear everyones thoughts, post at will.

Current reads in order from most to least scummy:

Spoiler: Klingoncelt

Yep, it's there. Thrice.

Then state what AUA is.

Allied Unification Army

Did not like the way this had to be coaxed out of her. She eventually got it correct, though varsoon gave the answer on page 1.

What the fudge was up with the hasty lynch?
Me and RR had formed the conclusion pistachi0n wasn't scum. And the BRantz thing is dubious but is a matter for post game discussion.
Where's the other scum kill?
If Klingoncelt vigged we should have two kills, and Ranger roleblocked pistachi0n.

Suzune didn't use either of her 2 abilities... maybe she's Scum?

Kling had no way of knowing this at the time.

I think you're very clever.

But I think you're too nice and honest to lie for very long. You just aren't the scheming dishonest type.

And we find it strange that this would be the followup post. She goes from saying Suzune is maybe scum to saying suzune is very clever, nice, too honest to lie for long. Feels like trying to deflect suspicion followed by buddying.

Additionally she was not on the LQ or BM lynch. She made no strong pushes on anyone, and barely mentions either BM or LQ.

@Klingon, yup. Suzune Elbrin and Jeanne aren't conf anything solely because we had a communication method. They're town due to actions.

So LQ BM RR or Brantz, name your scumreads please.

What about Wgeurts? Did I miss something? I have him at lean Scum vs Ranger at lean Scum.

LQ, lean Scum, the others lean Town.

If we lynch LQ and he flips Scum that's great, but I'd like a lynch that gives us information. Although lynching LQ regardless of flip should quiet Jeanne down... that would be a plus.

Scum lean on LQ but without any reason as to why, and townreads BM. The only time she directly mentions BM is here:

Blackest Magick (Xtoxm & Pokerface) - 5 posts, 1's RVS, 1's fluff. I can see this sort of thing from Pokerface, but where is Xtoxm?

Also, the results of the NK last night make us suspicious of Klingoncelt. It was a bad time for scum to choose to no-kill because it gave town an extra lynch. So klingon-scum feels more likely than the no-NK scenario. Plus POE.
Overall scumlean.

Spoiler: Suzune

Not much to say here, nothing from her play jumps out at us as being scum motivated. The only thing which causes us paranoia is the lack of town utility for her ascetic. Other than that her posts make sense, we feel like she has been putting in effort to solve the game, and she was on both scum lynches.
Town lean.

Spoiler: Ranger

Overall despite her poor use of ability and shift of her read of us, we think Ranger is town based on interactions with BM & LQ. Could possibly be scum bussing scum, based on early pegging of scum, confidence level, and that bit of flavor we pointed out earlier causing some paranoia. If it was a bus, it was done very well, but we find that scenario unlikely. We find on her read on us strange, going from:

pistachi seems scummy to me.

I got the opposite impression: pistachi0n seems to be the only town player on your wagon.

Between that (LQ), and the Titus wagon, we probably have the entire scumteam.

{FireKari, Elbirn, Jeanne, Titus, Suzune} are

very

strongly town.
{Klingoncelt, pistachi0n} are weaker town.
BRantz stands at null.
{LicketyQuickety, Blackest Magic, wgeurts, Reasonably Rational} are all scumreads.

You do realise LQ could be town?
That so could I?
That you 4 aren't conf-town?

All true.

At least two of the three are incredibly likely to be true, though. I seriously like a {Titus, Jeanne, Elbirn, Suzune} townbloc. I personally added in FireKari because I hold a

hard

townread on them. I hate the attempts to break the townbloc up, and I think they are driven by scum's fear that they can't break it.

I'm convinced LQ is scum. I do owe explanation for this, but none of his posting is good. He lacks actual scumhunting; he's just throwing random accusations out there that he doesn't even believe in.

The only one I really see any reason to doubt is my read on you. You could just be bad town not realizing how horrendously wrong you are, I will admit that, but you're not off my radar.

lol at that last past you claim that your reads have been static all game

I did no such thing.

Specific reads of mine have remained consistently strong. My townbloc of {Jeanne, Elbirn, Suzune, FireKari, Titus} has never wavered. All my other reads have changed: I went from not having reads on pistachi0n and Klingoncelt to having increasingly-strong townreads on them. You and Reasonably Rational have had the strength of my read change throughout the entire game. BRantz has shifted from scum to null and is currently back in scum. BlackestMagic was originally only weakly scum, and now is solidly scum. And LicketyQuickety briefly made me doubt the read, but when that was proven to be just a show, the read strengthened again.

Not static. Just subtle.

Ranger while articulate doesn't seem to be convincing anyone of anything right now. RR seems the most reasonable by far.

If you can't see the "convenience" behind this stance, I don't know what to tell you.

Jeanne is Jeanne and not much will change from them, but I think they are town for reasons Rager has said. It doesn't make sense that Jeanne would be so strong against me as Scum. Wgeurts is weird. I don't know why they are defending me so strongly. IDK could just be because of going against popular opinion, not sure. As far as I'm concerned, Titus has done nothing actually helpful this game by using their ability that, lets face it, lead to a wild goose chase and lots and lots of Wifom. I have no idea why Town!Titus would do something with such little thought put behind it. Brants made an entrance and didn't really do anything. Kling has more of barely anything

These stances all seem to be following popular opinion as well.

Notably, Blackest Magic is absent. Additionally, at L-1, he does not claim.

And then shifting to the current push on us. The case presented is pretty weaksauce.

Overall though it feels like she has been putting in effort and trying to solve the game, and she was on both scum lynches, so townlean on ranger. Oh and we also feel she is being honest about her power, which was confirmed, so that's a plus.

@Ranger
Why such a strong town read of us before? And why the shift?

Spoiler: Elbirn

PokerFace here, I never played suikoden so I will be wiki-ing flavor stuff as needed

@Elbirn,

who are your scum buddies?

You, lickety, and uhm..whoever that guy was who voted me in page 3. Not brantz, the other one.

This is the only post that causes paranoia, because of the confidence of pegging 2 scum so early. Other than that, everything else reads as null or town. He was on both scum lynches and it doesn't look like a bus to us. Plus his ability was confirmed, and feels town to us.

Suzune, Ranger and Elbirn are pretty close though, so if klingon were to flip scum we will be a bit lost as to how to proceed.

[FireKari]

If klingon were to flip town*

[Reasonably Rational]

We are of the opinion that klingon is, at worst, a safety lynch in lylo. Either scum no killed to frame her, killed the same target she did for the same reason, or she is scum and using the no kill gambit defense in despsration. Only in the third case do we want to lynch her, and there is no reason to make that lynch any earlier than absolutely necessary, given that it gives us a clear play to make in lylo with no opportunity for scum obfuscation. If we lynch her now, because all other slots are similarly suspect, it will be very easy to make those mislynches when they cost us the game.

I suppose it goes without saying, but I agree with the general thrust of Drixx's suspicions regarding Elbirn and suzune, but we do both need to reread the game to see if there is any actual reason to suspect one over the other, beyond Elbirns lack of content and opinions since his acceptance as town by Titus on D1.

-Cerb

[FireKari]

killed the same target she did for the same reason

Highly unlikely considering the last post of day 3:

I'll Vig Pistachion.

VOTE: Brantz

[Klingoncelt]

"Kling had no way of knowing this at the time."

Suzune or someone said something about her abilities. There's no other way I would know that, as you said.

The AUA thing goes back to Lickety. Jeanne, I think it was, asked Lickety if he was AGA or something, she got the middle initial wrong. This was during one of their many arguments. I misinterpreted it to thinking she was asking him if he had some sort of R/L disability with those initials. (On another site autism and other disorders are regularly used as attack points.) I don't know why, but that bit got stuck in my head. If someone would have asked my alignment, I would have come right out and said Allied Unification Army.

Just clearing those points up, carry on...

Oh, and I'm not Scum.

[Reasonably Rational]

killed the same target she did for the same reason

Highly unlikely considering the last post of day 3:

I'll Vig Pistachion.

VOTE: Brantz

The "same reason" I'm referring to is the one mentioned earlier in that sentence - to frame her, in the same fashion a no kill would. What if she got cold feet and you knew the person she was supposed to kill was town? Just make the kill for her to ensure it happens and you can carry out the no kill gambit, without actually risking there being no deaths.

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

I'm mobile, I know someone gathered all the claims. If anyone is able to quote that here, I would be very appreciative.

[Reasonably Rational]

-Cerb

[Reasonably Rational]

KC- Vig
RR - Mason
Wgeurts - Mason
Suzune - one shot two night ascetic+redirector
Elbirn - can write on the wall
FireKari - double voter
Ranger : Marks, roleblocks any marked individual she voted for during the day

That's what I remember, but I don't know if I'm missing any further details of anyones claimed roles.

Also, if someone here has a protective aspect of their role that they didn't claim, and protected someone *other* than wgeurts or us, claiming that now would be helpful.

Ranger, who did you mark and vote on D2?

- Cerb

[FireKari]

[Reasonably Rational]

?

-Cerb

[FireKari]

?

-Cerb

Cognitive dissonance causeing major brain pain..
Klingoncelt's lack of attention to the game setting off wifom bombs...
Too much facepalm.

Need to take a break. Maybe turkey day will help.

[FireKari]

~Yukari

Hope you all have a happy turkey day.

[Klingoncelt]

Thanks, you too, and to everyone else.

[Klingoncelt]

Klingoncelt's lack of attention to the game setting off wifom bombs...

It's not lack of attention. This game has been like a bad acid trip for me.

Everyone seemed like Scum, and there are some odd mechanics in the game. Day 1 was a big fat pain in the ass, and Day 2 wasn't much better. Jeanne's over-the-top paranoia, and Titus was acting pretty scummy, everyone else it was like tea with the Mad Hatter.

And as soon as I think I have a grip on the game everyone says I'm Scum.

[Suzune]

Sorry I have a guest in town my time online is limited.

[Ranger]

You are far from confirmed town.

Yes, but killing anyone other than me will confirm FireKari as town and I know I'm town, so there's that.

@Ranger
Why such a strong town read of us before? And why the shift?

I actually don't remember. If I had to

guess

, it'd be seeing your early LQ (and maybe BM?) pushes, but I don't actually know; I've forgotten. The shift is in part because of not remembering, and in part because of a combination of research (seeing you as potential scum) along with simple POE (you being less town than you were before).

[wgeurts]

I've been stupidly busy the last few days so I haven't been able to explain my thoughts I detail. They are known however.

[Varsoon]

KUPO PO