Mini 493: Methodical Mafia - Game Over!
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/confirm
"Vigilante" is also the classic SK claim, and I'm not sure how certain a gambit it is. Mafia Doctors are not unheard of, and would actually be easier in a game like this because they'd have less names to want to protect. If we get a clear lynch target D0 though, it's worth a shot.
I think LML's plan is crap, but if he wants to die N1... :shrug:Retired as of October 2014.-
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I mean just that, addressed to you I suppose since you suggested the vig-lynch. An SK must kill (usually), so the most likely pro-town claim they can get away with (for a while) is Vigilante, or perhaps Bomb. However both seem unlikely in this game, due to how everything works.Seol wrote:flay: what do you mean by vigilante is the classic sk claim? i mean i recognise the truth of the statement but who are you addressing? fwiw i'm not suggesting the vig, if one exists, claims.
Then again, a one-shot seems sort of odd for this game as well, so I'd be content with a vig-lynch target of LML.Retired as of October 2014.-
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*laugh* Fair enough, I guess there wouldn't be much difference at that point.Seol wrote:Well, if the SK wants to kill our agreed pseudolynch target for us tonight, I'm fine with that too.
So assuming we've in fact discarded LML's plan, how do we proceed with D0? Having people take a stand today might be useful for determining *actual* nightchoices, and it'll give us something to build from D1.Retired as of October 2014.-
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Speak English or Die, Lee.I can't even figure out what you're upsetabout. So you really expect us to believe that Methodical Mafia includes a one-shot Watcher role? (I never said Cop, I'm not sure where you're coming from there). The only possible use for that role is to be a mass target N1, which, conveniently, you suggested RIGHT out of the gate. Forgive me if I'm a little bit suspicious...Retired as of October 2014.-
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*sigh* Pretty sure I deserved that one... -- Jack SparrowLoudmouthLee wrote:Mr. Flay wrote:Speak English or Die, Lee.I can't even figure out what you're upsetabout. So you really expect us to believe that Methodical Mafia includes a one-shot Watcher role? (I never said Cop, I'm not sure where you're coming from there). The only possible use for that role is to be a mass target N1, which, conveniently, you suggested RIGHT out of the gate. Forgive me if I'm a little bit suspicious...READ ENGLISH OR DIE, FLAY
Okay, that was painful. Let me reread, regroup, and hopefully come back with something more intelligent later tonight...
I can't think Glork would be so ostentatious about his randomness if he knew he was scum, which makes it seem more like suboptimal protown play. Still aggravating, for all the reasons Seol already mentioned (I can tell this is going to be a hard game not to "me too" in...)Retired as of October 2014.-
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What made you think I was asking Seol for advice? I was trying to spark discussion from the group, something that's been widely lacking (probably because it's not like we can really push for a lynch today).VitaminR wrote:Mr. Flay makes me uneasy.
Asking Seol how we should proceed is scummy and lazy at best.Mr. Flay wrote:So assuming we've in fact discarded LML's plan, how do we proceed with D0? Having people take a stand today might be useful for determining *actual* nightchoices, and it'll give us something to build from D1.
Vampanzee's active lurking is noted.Retired as of October 2014.-
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Still out of town so my response is curtailed, but I will clarify that the "please stop claiming" outburst is a combination of response to two ongoing games, and Xdaamno's "...and they don't" post. It seemed to be confirming that he was a vanilla townie who did not have to send in a list, though that seems weaker in retrospect than I thought at the time.Retired as of October 2014.-
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As regards VitR, the question that everyone is apparently waiting with bated breath on is "Erm... what crap-logic?" - however later posts have clarified why he'd vote for me without ascribing to the dominant theory (more on that later).
In response to #1 from the followup post, my belligerence toward LML is real and goes back to previous games we've played together. Lee is a very aggressive player and I respond in kind, plus we have a positive rapport that tends to build discussion. In that sense, I'm sad to see him go, and wish he hadn't been quite so cavalier about outing his role and painting a target on his own back. Regarding #2, what else did you expect to do Day Zero except discuss how to proceed? Presumably the point of that exercise was to allow people to make semi-informed decisions if they had lists to create, and I wasn't the only one doing it. I think your singling me out was bad logic, but you're far from the scummiest person around at this point.
Unvote: VitaminR, Vote: Glorkwho is unhelpfulin additionto being opportunistic. Simenon would be a close second choice, if the bandwagon leans that way, for the already addressed SK theory and paradoxically for the fact that hedroppedmy wagon yesterday, after lobbying so hard for it on previous pages. I think this theory that I'm the SK because I mentioned the "SKs claim Vigilante" metagame is absurd. Give me a *little* credit for not being completely transparent, will you?? But latching onto that is opportunistic and counterproductive in my view.
I've scanned the thread since that exchange on page 8, and don't see any other specific questions, but let me know if I missed one. I'm still a little overwhelmed with catching up here...Retired as of October 2014.-
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I don't know what "randomly slain" means - do you? What I mean is that by describing his role, he made himself more likely to be a nightkill target, and I don't see how he didn't know that - even if we had a Doctor, two killers could have taken him out if they'd both targeted him. Why we had two deaths instead of a double-kill, I'm not clear on.Glork wrote:Does this mean you think that the kill on LmL was not determined by truly random means?
Glork, you have to convince others for your "knowledge" to do any good....Retired as of October 2014.-
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Ahhh, that would be the Kingmaker saga? No, I missed that during my hiatus from playing, apparently...Glork wrote:
Silly Flay, what Glork says is law around here! Did you not see the role somebody devised where anybody "Glork" helped to lynch became Mafia upon their death?Flay wrote:Glork, you have to convince others for your "knowledge" to do any good....
[sarcasm]*goes to add the Glorkinator role to the wiki*[/sarcasm]
Cool, that's what I wanted to hear:But if you want an explanation, it's almost entirely meta-based. This sounds like protown Simenon, whereas I recently saw scum-Simenon who behaved differently. I realize that won't do you or Distad much good, but it's what I've got, and I feel comfortable enough with that read to state that I think he's protown.somereasoning, even if it was personal/gut.
An SK who was free to act w/o making a list might be a good balancer in a game of this type, but I can't really see the appeal of random actions. But that's getting even more meta-, especially on D1...
I can't say as I understand that logic. I said when I was getting back in town, I'd started to respond already, and it's not like I was going to disappear/be replaced...Simenon wrote:That's because you weren't there, silly. Not much use wagoning someone who isn't going to post.
Of course I see it as "counterproductive" to bandwagon me when I know my alignment, but that's unprovable to anyone else. What I don't get is dropping a bandwagon because of a *lack* of defense... I'm not clear what happened with the copy-paste error in the end of your sentence, but since the statement was made three weeks ago, why wouldn't it be "opportunistic" to make a case based on it when actual voting started?Retired as of October 2014.-
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I WHAT?VitaminR wrote:You were the only player to do that.LoudmouthLee in post 10 wrote:I would like EVERYONE IN THE GAME to target me, Night One.
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The Roleblockershould target himself in order for this plan to work.Seol in post 24 wrote:okay i reckon we can turn this night start into a day start by using the vig's kill as the d0 lynch. i am of the opinion that this would be a good thing - although there are downsides the benefit is i think well worth it. thoughts?Cogito Ergo Sum in post 49 wrote:This Day 0 is very important. This is not the time for Irresponsible Glrok. This is the time for Useful Scumhunting Glrok.BrianMcQueso in post 94 wrote:Day 0 is a huge boon to creating your targeting list.
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Without the benefit of Day 0, then everyone would be forced into random lists, but we have information to guide our choices now, no matter how limited it might be.
We were given two entire weeks for discussion, so let's make good use of that time and get a lot of information that will help our power roles. Day 0 should not be considered a kick-back day that doesn't really matter because there is no lynch. Day 0 could be the most significant day of the game.Erg0 in post 98 wrote:A formulaic approach to target lists (e.g. BMQ's suggestions above) will work better for some roles than others.
For roles that interact with the scum directly or indirectly (e.g. doctor, roleblocker) the individual with the role really needs to make the decision for themselves regarding what method to apply.
And this re-read reminded me that you replaced ojpower, who had that mysterious confusion about how whoever is targeted at night kills. You're climbing back up my list toward a vote, Vit.VitaminR (that's you) in post 129 wrote:Glork & distad, I think Day 0 could be very valuableifenough players participate, both in helping us compile lists and giving us more info for the Day game.Retired as of October 2014.-
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Unfortunately, the other leading candidate doesn't strike me as scummy, so I'm not switching to BMQ. Anyone I've voted for today is fair-game, though, as are my own voters. I think this whole 'case" has been built out of utter straw, and scum are going to get through on a deadline because people can't be arsed.Retired as of October 2014.-
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People I've voted for are on each of the top three votes, which doesn't make me happy. But Glork is the least egregious of the three, and distad's third post strikes me way scummy:
Emphasis added, obviously.distad wrote:Yeah, Flay... I have some thoughts.
I think that we're all just playing with ourselves here. I don't think that any of this is needed. The scum are going to come up with their lists, and a lot of that will probably be random.The doc will come up with a list, again, probably just random. The cop will come up with a list, again, more or less just random.
Further, I'd be willing to bet that we DO have a vig in here. Stoof made a point of clarifying the rule that all power roles have to send in a list *unless otherwise specified in the role PM*. There probably is that provision in the vig's pm.
At this point, I think that we should just crack open a beer, sit back, get to Night, and then get our game on.
Unvote, Vote: distad- that's three. I suggest you claim soonest, and if you're town, give thoughts on everyone still alive.Retired as of October 2014.-
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I'm guessing that we've got two sorts of Cops (at least), on that detects Cults (distad, by claim) and one who ... wait.Glork wrote:Now, by "second" cop, do you mean that there are just two regular cops, or were you a Deputy/Backup which became a Cop N0?
Stoofer, you WOULD reveal to us if Seol or Lee had been Cult-recruited before death, right??Retired as of October 2014.-
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I'm not crazy about BMQ showing up suddenly.
What I don't get is why, in a game with screwy mechanics, we'd have two killers AND a Cult. Granted, we've got two apparent Cops and a Tracker, but still... something not right here. I think the Cult thing is a red herring, to lend doubt to distad's results.
Anyone ever been a Cop in a Stoofer game (non-Newbie, obviously)?Retired as of October 2014.-
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Of course it does; I'm just upset we didn't get more out of you earlier. I don't think anyone will lynch you before you get to make that final post, though.BrianMcQueso wrote:
Maybe I feel the need to be active since I see myself as the most likely lynch this game, but c'mon now Flay.Mr. Flay wrote:I'm not crazy about BMQ showing up suddenly.Everyonehas shown up suddenly. Does the word "deadline" mean anything?
Glork/Erg0 is very interesting. What makes you so sure it's a non-wagon, Erg0?Retired as of October 2014.-
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Going off of distad's last count, I *think* we're at:
BMQ - 2 (CES, VitR)
Simenon - 2 (BMQ, Flay)
Erg0 - 2 (Glork, Simenon)
VitR - 1 (Xdaamno)
Not voting: 3 (distad, Erg0 and Nocmen)
That means no one's ready to be lynched. I'd rather lynch Simenon (or VitaminR) than either of the others, but I'll switch to avoid a No Lynch, which would be decidedly unhelpful.
I know Simenon's claiming brainstorm, but that looks for all the world like "oh, I see what role he was breadcrumbing now", and that doesn't sit right with me.
BMQ: What you're probably seeing is me vastly over-extended. I'm modding like 12 games right now, and accidentally playing in four. I should be at more like 5-2....Retired as of October 2014.-
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Almost Certainly CorrectVote Count(before my post):
Erg0: 4 (Glork, Simenon, Nocmen, Mr. Flay)
BrianMcQueso: 2 (Cogito Ergo Sum, VitaminR)
Simenon: 2 (BrianMcQueso, Erg0)
VitaminR: 1 (Xdaammo)
Not voting: distad
About six-seven hours until deadline. Where the hell is CES in all of this?
Unvote: Erg0, Vote: Simenon- that doesn't put Simenon in the lead, but it makes things slightly more interesting, with two viable targets.
I agree with this Vote Count! - StooferRetired as of October 2014.-
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Interesting night result; Xdammno's assertions about random killers and Mafia Watchers are put in a slightly different light, now. Unfortunately I don't see any clear pairings for him and the other (two?) Mafioso - VitR would be suspect, except that he started the attempted bandwagon on VitR yesterday during the march to deadline. On the other hand, that bandwagon went precisely nowhere, but I'm revising down my estimate of his scumminess today, especially since I was wrong about Simenon.
Argh, Simenon. Really irritating to have that come up as a Townie lynch, since the flurry of posting/voting meant that we probably dropped a scum lynch somewhere in there. I thought Simenon's sudden change of heart would tell us something once he "caught Glork's breadcrumb", but I still don't see it. The only case that springs to mind there is Erg0, who was ahead briefly and then dropped. BMQ still seems unlikely to be scum, especially in light of Xdaamno's general attitude toward that lynch possibility.Retired as of October 2014.-
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Huh? I said BMQ wasunlikelyto be scum in post 483, based on Xdaamno's behavior. Where are you coming from, VitR?
distad: my apologies, I forget you'd already announced your N2 investigation target. I'm actually a little surprised Glork wasn't the random target, so that's weird (and possibly useful). Why kill Xdaamno at that point?? He wasn't particularly going after anyone useful...
I'm not getting anything useful out of the entrance/exit scenes. I suspect they're either flavor, or we'll not get it until much later in the game. Then again, with seven left alive, we COULD be at lynch-or-lose today (two scum kills + lynch = 4 alive tomorrow). That's disconcerting...Retired as of October 2014.-
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Actually, my theory from earlier in the day is fairly easy to summarize: Xdammno wasn't buying the BMQ wagon from yesterday. He kept saying that over and over again, and there really wasn't any reason for him to suspect that he would die overnight. So in a way, I think Xd's posts can be taken as indicative of who he might have been protecting/distancing from. So my theory was that he was protecting BMQ, but I don't like that idea much anymore, mostly due to reactions today. VitaminR, on the other hand, might have been distancing, since he would be relatively sure the deadline lynch wouldn't go that way, and that single late vote wasweird.
Nocmen, though. Anyone who perked up at my mention of lynch-or-lose (which is actually fairly unlikely, since it presupposes that both the Lynch today and both Nightkills will miss scum, out of seven chances) might be scum, and Nocmen's been pushing for "vote early, vote often" ever since that post of mine.Retired as of October 2014.-
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There's no "gambit" at all to my asking to hear from CES. All I wanted was to hear from one of the few people who didn't participate in the slugfest at the end of Day One, so I'd at least have *something* of his to gauge against my theory about BMQ.I like participation from all players.
I'll save you the trouble of looking up the "Flay is SK" theory; it comes from Simenon on D1, post 180. Aside from the Cop-claimed investigation (which would presumably give the same result for anyone, since Stoofer ascribes to the don't-lie-to-the-players school of modding and Cop-immunity is a common SK-gift), it still looks like a house of cards to me.Retired as of October 2014.-
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Erg0: Good point. Does that actually make No Lynch viable? If there are 4 pro-town now, it would up the chances by one that we'd still be alive tomorrow, but I'm not sure it's worth it just to get another round of night actions.
Xdaamno's vote on VitaminR in the lack of any other bandwagon strikes me as really weird, still.Vote: VitaminR- I could probably be persuaded to vote Nocmen at deadline, but it seems like he just made an honest mistake there.Retired as of October 2014.-
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That makes no sense, even toMr. Flay wrote:Xdaamno's vote on VitaminR in the lack of any other bandwagon strikes me as really weird, still.me. That should read, "vote on VitaminR in the face of an utter lack of other votes on him at the time" (i.e. no bandwagon there, and we were facing a deadline)...Retired as of October 2014.-
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I think a and b are part-and-parcel of the does-the-SK-determine-their-kills-methodically question (I can't think of any reason for an SK to skip their kill in a game like this if they had to presubmit a list). Death scene evidence points to no, length of night points to yes. If they could submit before nightfall, then maybe its otherwise. But distad's continued survival as a claimed Cop is a big factor, IMO.
I'm almost certain that CES was not bussing a partner last night. Given that, I don't think he's Mafia, though he could be the SK. Lurking pattern would be consistent with that. Unfortunately I don't have a strong lynch-candidate today based on prior voting patterns. If there's another Mafioso, I'd have to guess it was Erg0 based on D1 voting patterns for the now-dead Mafia. Also, the fact that so many of out experienced players (relatively speaking) are still alive makes me think the Mafia/SK are largely inexperienced/don't know who's who?
Overall though, I think I agree with BMQ's plan, but there's no need to rush this day.Retired as of October 2014.-
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Sorry, had a meeting tonight, just got home a bit ago.
Unfortunately I have reason to need to know if CES has a Night Action before I claim/answer Erg0's supposition, but I may have an explanation. Sorry to be so opaque, but I think distad's continued survival and the short nights put paid to the idea of a freely-controlled kill.Retired as of October 2014.-
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Alright then. If I'm understanding correctly, Erg0's theory is that I'm an SK who is Cop-immune (distad), Tracker-immune (Erg0), AND possibly Roleblocker immune? Furthermore, I can make my choices on the fly, but opted to killXdaamnoover the claimed Doctor, and LML despite his claimed role and the possibility of a Doctor?? Occam's Razor says bullshit.
Unfortunately, the truth in this situation is almost as bizarre.I don't know what I do.I'm aSleepwalker, and I didn't get to submit a list. Each Night I wake up in front of a different house; Stoofer's been sending me that information each dawn. I can't really see a pattern, but maybe you can:
N1: Seol
N2: distad
N3: CES
There's some flavor about it affecting my health (doesn't specify what kind), so if CES is a Psychiatrist or something, it's possible I can become useful. Otherwise, that either died with Glork, or I'm just an Improbable Role... but I'm not, so far as I know, a killer.
Seriously, though. Erg0's case is practically predicated on me being a super-powered yet totally inept Serial Killer. He's taking absence of evidence (no result) as evidence of guilt.Vote: Erg0Retired as of October 2014.-
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Also, since damn-near-everyone has an ability, the idea of two Mafia vs. an SK and Super-Town seems laughable. So I'm guessing if Erg0 is a Tracker, he might still be Mafia. Or CES might be the final scum...
Another possibility is that there was one kill last night because both scum groups targeted the same kill.Retired as of October 2014.-
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Well, hell.Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:I should probably specify that, to my knowledge, I have nothing to do with the lack of result on Flay or the lack of nightkill last night. If you're looking for my ability to do something that would help explain what's going on, you're not gonna find it.
Huh? Ergo and BMQ are scum but I'm your vote? Or are you using 'scum' as Mafia?I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, but I think Flay's our SK. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.
I don't know. At this point, I'm tempted to go back to the lynch-someone-block-Flay-to-test theory. If I am the killer, at least we'll know it. The question is how will other night choices interfere...Retired as of October 2014.-
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Mr. Flay Metatron
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Aha.Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
Bolding mine.Mr. Flay wrote:
Huh? Ergo and BMQ are scum but I'm your vote? Or are you using 'scum' as Mafia?I'm torn between Ergo and BMQ as final scum, butI think Flay's our SK. I'd still like to know who is after Flay on BMQ's list.
Right, you still think the SK has a nightly choice. How do you explain Xdaamno/Glork's deaths, then?
We might be able to rule you out, but it won't really tell us whether you're the killer. A strategic no-kill would be a fairly obvious move for an SK.Mr Flay wrote:I don't know. At this point, I'm tempted to go back to the lynch-someone-block-Flay-to-test theory. If I am the killer, at least we'll know it. The question is how will other night choices interfere...
If I'm your next choice, and BMQ's next target, I fail to see what we lose by trying BMQ's plan. I still say Erg0 is likely lying scum.VitaminR
BrianMcQueso
Glrok
distad
Mr. Flay
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Ahh, I totally see what you were bitching about my theory's suckiness for now. Unfortunately, all I've got in this game is the truth, weird as it is. Dethy cop would have been a much more interesting claim... care to tell us what type of results you get? If you detect SK, we could be golden...As such, when Flay mentioned a theory and noted he required input from me, the knowledge I had that there were at least 3 cops immediately sprang to mind. And certainly, if he had been a cop too, perhaps with some guilty results, then looking for a fourth cop to complete the ensemble is quite logical. I didn't see what else he could be needing me for.Erg0 wrote:Can anyone tell me why we haven't lynched Flay yet?Retired as of October 2014.-
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Shit, I am completely lost in this game.Erg0 wrote:What makes you think that CES in particular is naive? He and distad have both had all innocent results haven't they?Unvote, Vote: distad- CES I'dreallylike to hear what sort of results you get. I just realized all this "Flay is the SK" stuff is partially predicated on distad's result not clearing me, which would be a fair scum tactic. I'm also not liking the idea ofthreeCops...
I don't know why you didn't get a result on me N2. What did it say, exactly? Presumably you didn't get blocked unless it was by Mafia, so perhaps my lack of a choice is confounding things? Have you tracked a Townie yet?Retired as of October 2014.-
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This setup becomes very difficult in endgame, because choices for power roles always hit someone alive at the beginning of the night, so you don't even have to be that careful with who you stack toward the bottom of your list. Also, with three cops and a tracker, I'm not sure what Stoofer expected me to do. I had a safeclaim?? Sure, I could try to play Dethy with three cops, not knowing what sort of results they were all getting (sorta mod-confirmed there), and the fact that all of their results pointed to the fact that there was an SK by virtue of how they were worded. Plus a tracker who ended up fingering me by virtue of not getting a result...I think Stoof played "the Mod shall not lie to the players" a little too literally here.
I think town was overpowered, in this one. I disagree with disallowing scum talk (I've said that in two prior games, too); sure they had no reason to discuss kills, but a day or so for strategy wouldn't have hurt anything and would have lent a lot more credence to the "random/free will SK" theory. I don't believe this is a game I'd place an SK in again, though possibly two scum groups could work. Or if the SKactuallycould choose their kills each night, like was expected by everyone but me - Itoldyou it made no sense for a freely-choosing SK to not kill Glork!
Still, this was my first game as SK, so I'd like feedback on my play. A lot of people had theories that I was the SK from the very start (for crap reasons, in my view), so I played to that a bit by being so WIFOM that you couldn't get a good read, but eventually I lost out to power roles (in my opinion). Also, I forgot about the one-shot NK immunity, but I don't think that would have affected my play any... Also, Lee sent me a couple of charming PMs when I killed him:LoudmouthLee wrote:So, which killer ARE you?LoudmouthLee wrote:
Damn. You piece of shite. I had you pegged. PEGGED.Mr. Flay wrote:I'm the SK, just like I said.
Looking at my list, I'm probably the one who killed you, but I did have to submit a list, so the 'randomly' part must be flavor...Retired as of October 2014.-
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One problem with this setup that may not have been anticipated is that scum have NO effective way to deal with claims, since all their nightkills are predestined. There's no way I would have logically chosen to kill Xdaamno and VitaminR, leaving Glork/Erg0/distad alive, but I didn't have a choice at that point.
Also, multiple cops is great, but distad's result threw me off, because it could have meant that distad got "Mafia or Cult", LML got "Cult or SK", and the other got "Townie/not Townie". Or whatever... I'm just not seeing that as a safe claim, because if I'd said the wrong thing, it would have pegged me later.Retired as of October 2014.-
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True. I tend not to look at my role PM as scum after N0, so I'd forgotten that point. But I still think it was a tough game as SK. Trackers are nearly impossible to beat, AND three cops?
But maybe I'm just no good at arguing w/o teammates. How DO people defeat SK accusations? There's seems to be no good answer...Retired as of October 2014.-
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