Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[3dicerolling]

Thestatusquo replaces ScaryCereal effective immediately. Please rain down your honorable welcomes.

[3dicerolling]

Vote count 3.2

Sorry, no fun stuff tonight.

Soapbar - (0)
FA_Q2 - (0)
MoosyDoosy - (1) MoosyDoosy
Thestatusquo - (0)
raskolnikov - (2) Syndesis, FA_Q2

(L-3)

iraonavp - (0)
Syndesis - (0)
davesaz - (2) iraonavp, raskolnikov

(L-3)

Not voting: Soapbar, Thestatusquo, davesaz

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch

(expired on 2016-01-28 15:48:00)

[Thestatusquo]

Catching up. On page 7 atm.

Rly hope tool or dave is dead when I get to the end of this.

[Thestatusquo]

Moose is town.

Syndesis is obv town.

Soap is town.

FA-QA leans scum. Add him to the list of people it would be cool if they were dead at the end of this.

[Thestatusquo]

To get this out of the way: my phrasing in my ISO read on dave wasn't the greatest. I said he was trying to make people look scummy -- more like "hint that people might be scum in order to undermine townreads."

I think you're missing the point of what I'm doing.

A calls B town for no reason or a bad reason.
I point out to A that their reasoning is bad.

This does not mean I think B isn't town, nor does it mean I'm trying to convince A that B isn't town.
I'm pointing out that A might be scum because they're using bad reasoning to townread B. And trying to do it in a way that engages A to explain further, so I can sort A.

Now, go back through that again and see if you understand...

This is a good post. Dave going down on the "hope he's dead" meter.

[Thestatusquo]

iraonavp likely scum.

[Thestatusquo]

VOTE: TheCow

Until he explains the vote on Tool. He has been asked to explain his vote twice and has ignored this question once.

I was going to say this was a shitty vote, but then I reconsidered. I have the following thoughts:

1) Hawk is currently the most voted player. Natural inclination of both town and scum here is to try to find things that could be scummy in that position.
2) There is literally nothing going down right now. The game is a circle jerk at this point with a bunch of people very actively doing nothing. I actually kind of like this post as I think its a decent attempt to actually put some real discussion in the game.
3) I like it a lot better than the two or so people who made vague "well, you really should say more RIGHT NOW" types of posts without putting any teeth into them.

[Thestatusquo]

page 14. FA is still scum!

[Syndesis]

LIFE

LIFE

PRAISE

[Thestatusquo]

Scummy reasoning and such but yeah.

My lynch is inevitable at this point so idc

I hate posts like this.

I was pretty strongly reading town here up until this post.

[Thestatusquo]

moosey likely town but dear god I hope they get force replaced.

[Thestatusquo]

Can you give some details on the Syndesis read?

They... seem town-aligned? Their posts are genuine and train-of-thought, s that what you want to hear? I am not good at town-aligned reads. Let's say it is a "gut read", if that makes it easier.

This sounds like you have no true scum reads at all?

I don't understand where you're getting this from. I read Metrion, FA_Q2, TheCow and you as scum-aligned to various degrees. The deadline is forcing a compromise lynch.

How is this a compromise lynch? You want to lynch me and I am one of the leading wagons.

A compromise lynch because Metrion would be my first pick for today's lynch.

Wait. Where the actual fuck did this just come from? I could be wrong here, but I don't think I remember this ever being said before. Now, at deadline suddenly the top lynch choice is a lurker who is not one of the 2 main wagons who I don't recall you making a case on before?

Come again?

[Thestatusquo]

D1 end. Nice job town!

That makes my previous post all the more important. Throwing a wrench into the lynch equation when a scummy is on the chopping block makes trying to derail a buddy a real possibility. Especially because the post literally made me do a double take.

at hawkeyes fake claim as town.

I fucking hate that. Even if it worked this time.

[Thestatusquo]

Agreed, synd. But there are other possibilities, including multiball and SK. Multiball would have to be werewolves since Chaotic's mafia faction was just called "mafia" and not "___ mafia."

Anyway....here's the wagon analysis I did during the night. It's based on Chaotic's faction being the only anti-town faction in the game, so very subject to change should anything come to light that suggests otherwise. Removed sword and hawk because they flipped:

Spoiler: Chaotic Neutrality wagon

-Syndesis #6, L-6 (RVS), switch to hawk in #12, L-7
-FA #303, L-6
-Tool #314, L-5
-Synd #338, L-4, switch to FA in #379, L-4
-Hawk #345, L-3
-dave #431, L-3
-soap #451, L-2
-synd #460, L-1
-sword #461, L-0

FA: OK so FA looks pretty friggin' town here because he actually started the wagon and stuck to it as we approached deadline with nothing else going on. As I've said before, it didn't really look like bussing.

Synd: Synd's switch to FA and redirection to the CN wagon when it became apparent that that was the lynch looks somewhat scumpartner-y. But Syndesis overall looks town.

Dave: Dave might look bad if it weren't for the context surrounding his L-3 vote. At the time, syndesis had hopped off of CN and onto FA. CN and FA had the same number of votes on them and dave agreed that FA looked scummy. So for hypothetical purposes, if dave were scum with CN and FA is town, that would mean that scumdave looked at two wagons with equal momentum and chose to push his partner over a townie. Doesn't make sense. On top of that dave looks town for other reasons which I've gone into before.

Soap: Soap's vote comes soon after dave's vote, and at the time CN and FA were again tied for number of votes (because CN voted FA). It also came after I specifically asked soap for his thoughts on CN. My initial thought was that soap's vote looked the most like bussing scum because of the timing, but CN's vote on FA puts that in doubt a little bit because that meant soap was, at least by pure numbers, in the same position that dave was in when dave voted on CN. However, Soap wasn't posting very frequently in the week leading up to deadline (bc Christmas) and it's possible he wasn't paying a ton of attention to the voting/VCs. Simply by process of elimination, Soap looks like the best candidate for bussing scum on the wagon. If we eliminate him and he flips town, I think I could accept the possibility that it was an all-town wagon that lynched CN.

Spoiler: FA_Q2 wagon

-Synd #139, L-6, switches to dave in #318, L-7
-ira #189, L-5, unvotes in #231, L-6
-lolbabe #378, L-6
-Synd #379, L-5, switches to CN in #460, L-5
-ira #415, L-4
-Chaotic #447, L-3

Synd: OK this side of things continues to make Syndesis look bad. The vote in #139 doesn't really mean much, I could see that coming from a partner or a townie, but the fact that she revoted FA one post after lolbabe decided to revive the FA wagon is a little suspicious given that FA was the only other wagon that looked like it might succeed besides CN's wagon. I'm going to want to take another look at Syndesis's ISO and see how I feel about this.

ira: ira's arc also makes him look like a potential partner to CN. He follows syndesis onto the FA wagon but unvotes when FA questions him a little, perhaps like scum who lack true conviction in a wagon they know is on town. When he revotes FA, it's at a time when it wasn't yet clear that CN was the day's likely lynch. In other words, ira helped push momentum toward the FA wagon that I now believe was likely on town. ira did start saying in #434 that he would lynch anybody, including CN, and I believe this actually supports the case that ira is a partner. #434 was just after dave pushed the CN wagon closer to being the day's lynch (but before CN put FA's wagon equal with his own again) and looks like scum giving themselves the ability to bus if need be.

lolbabe: lolbabe was also in a place that looks like it could be scum pushing a counterwagon to partnerCN, but I will point out that she appears pretty open about the possibility that CN is scum. She says CN looks like town in the post she votes FA (#378), but then pushes CN some in #401, #452 and #453. The first of those, #401, was while the FA wagon was still neck-and-neck with the CN wagon. So that works in favor of lolbabe being town, though she could just be a good scum player.

Everyone else, plus an ISO read on Synd:

Metrion: Metrion's only vote was an RVS vote on the Cow. He unvoted in his second post and never voted again. He wasn't too active during that time, and holy crap does his arc look like a scum partner to CN. Literally half his posts come after I begin pushing CN, and the bulk of that is defending CN/his read on CN. It's always a relatively soft defense (look at the question mark in #334), and after I push back on it he begins to distance himself from the read ever so slightly. But he never goes so far as to abandon his townread on CN. His last post came before dave pushed the CN wagon toward becoming the day's lynch, so we never got to see how his attitude on CN would have changed (or not changed) given the town momentum, but given the slow build and compromise-y nature of the CN lynch, it would make sense for at least one of the scum partners to have been MIA as momentum swung CN's way.His defense of CN was, imo, shallow. I bookmarked a couple snippets from Metrion's defense in case CN flipped scum because even at the time I thought Metrion's defense of CN looked weird. Even as he was defending CN, he was trying to put some focus on other players, like ira. The "droning on" thing I highlighted because it looked like Metrion was reaching to support his conclusion that CN looked towny. It looked like he was grabbing for anything to support his conclusion, which is what you do when you want to arrive at a certain conclusion instead of trying to arrive at the conclusion that truly makes the most sense. I think #346 looks bad as well; he's trying to slow down momentum toward lynching CN by saying that we have five days left -- ignoring the fact that those days made up the week of Christmas, which I had already pointed out. Right now Metrion looks like by far the best candidate for a D2 lynch.

Moosy: It's tough to tell whether Moosy's end-of-day vote on ira was serious or not. He was clearly not taking D1 seriously, and the post in which he voted ira involved him voting every single player including himself. So maybe he did it just to be silly but intentionally made ira the last person he voted for, or maybe ira just happened to be the last person he put on his vote ladder and therefore it was more like another RVS vote. One could argue that his nonchalant and silly attitude on D1 came from scum wanting to absolve himself of any attachment to anything that happened during the day, therefore ensuring that he would live on to D2, but I don't really buy that when I weigh it against the desire to protect your partner (who became the lynch candidate and was under pressure for a good chunk of the day). It's worth noting that Moosy mentions CN in two of the posts where he actually put in some effort, #293 and #312. In the first he leans toward CN being town but says that may change. Looks like genuinely trying to sort CN imo. In the second he says that CN is "probably scum tbh." So even though it's possible Moosy is a partner, I think there are much better candidates to look at right now.

TheCow: Again, the arc with hawk ends with Cow looking town imo. He naked votes me in #269 and declines to say why when asked. For the whole week leading up to Christmas/deadline, he really didn't do anything. This also kind of fits in with my theory from my Metrion analysis above -- that at least one of the scum partners was inactive close to deadline, which is why the CN wagon built like it did -- but again I don't necessarily buy that that's true when Metrion looks much more like scum than Cow and it also makes a lot of sense that at least one partner would be on the FA counterwagon.

Synd: You know what, the tone of Syndesis's posts throughout the game, especially earlier in the day, support the town explanation for her voting pattern re: FA and CN. She plays lighthearted and switches her vote around a lot and votes people to see how they'll react (as opposed to having a ton of conviction behind votes). At one point she says she feels adrift. That explains, from a town perspective, why she switched around from FA to CN, and why some of it looks like it's at times that would be convenient for scum. I'm comfortable keeping Synd out of the scum pool for now.

Spoiler: Chaotic's interactions

-His first real reads are given in #253, where he says moosy and I look scummy. This is further evidence for moosy being town, I think -- moosy was the low-hanging fruit for scum to chase, and the usual narrative is for scum to look for low-hanging fruit to push a mislynch. Plus it was early in the day, so why bus? Not to mention #311, which can now be read with a bit more confidence as Chaotic knowing that moosy would flip town if lynched.
-The vote on FA in #447 could be read as scum bussing to distance themselves from a buddy because they know that they are going to be lynched, but meh.

Reads list

Town:

-FA
-dave

Null-town:

-moosy
-synd
-thecow

Null:

-

Null-scum:

-lolbabe
-soap
-ira

Scum:

-metrion

VOTE: metrion

I'm mostly interested in the beginning of this post. Namely, I find that the first person to bring up something like multiball very often has a reason to believe the setup might be multiball.

[Thestatusquo]

Page 20. Has lolbabe taken a strong stance on literally anything this entire game?

[Thestatusquo]

Does anyone have a meta check on tool for me? Is he typically this high effort as scum? One of my blind spots is I typically associate high effort as town even though thats often not true even a little bit.

[Syndesis]

Do you mind spoilers?

[Thestatusquo]

Page 26. Not a huge fan of the metrion lynch because a) it seems to have been pulled out of some asses b) those asses seem to be working in concert and c) those asses all belong to people who I am reading as scum.

[Thestatusquo]

There is definitely 1 scum in
[iraonavp, FA]

but probably 2.

[Thestatusquo]

All caught up.

vote: iraonavp

Reasoning is in 836 and 837.

DIE SUCK DIE DIE DIE SUCK DIE SCUM SUCK DIE

[Raskolnikov]

TSQ I also don't like FA's posts but the thing that makes it really hard to see him as scum is his pushing on CN day 1. Is it possible that he was scum and he didn't think the lynch would end up going through, or he's just a hardcore busser?

[Thestatusquo]

There are too many potential scum motivations for the play day 1 wrt cn for me to spend too much time thinking about it. It's essentially wifom imo.

But I will say there's a reason I voted one of the two scum reads and not the other.

[Syndesis]

One correction: ira

was

pushing Met mid-D1, to little avail.

[Thestatusquo]

I missed that in my skim but went back and you're right. I still don't like the push, and actually reading the early posts I like it even less. Especially considering the fact that he said a large part of his reasoning for why he thought met was scum was because he thought it was trying to distract from the hawk wagon, a wagon that we now know was town, which didn't seem to deter him at all.

[Syndesis]

Soap is town.

Why?

iraonavp likely scum.

Why

I assume the defense of CN?

page 14. FA is still scum!

Whyyyyy