If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?
My (flawed) thought process went something like this:
"AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
"Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
Why
is Smudger so sure?)
"Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
"Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*
In post 369, Smudger wrote:thats a good question Curly and its all to do with perception of how things have transpired. I really didn't have much of a case on Kim other than gut and possibly a subconscious lean based on my misguided belief that Bel was town, until of course I grabbed hold of what Az was in fact saying end of D2.
so let us go back in time, after the RVS D1 the first vote Bel threw out was on Kim and he in fact stated it was serious vote, remember this?
In post 37, Kim wrote:Bel (can I call you Bel?) shouldn't need my help defending himself
No, I don't
UNVOTE: bluebird
VOTE: Kim
Serious vote.
now commonly scum will attempt to distance themselves from each other early in a game, and Bel is an experienced player, so when I put all the pieces together this begins to stand out. You could argue it was just a vote but then this sticks out. Its Bels reason to vote Kim,
Spoiler:
In post 51, Belisarius wrote:I'm not voting Kim for white knighting, per se. I'm voting him for saying that he thought something might come from hiplop's vote on me, while trying to interfere with it by pooh-poohing it.
I'm also not happy about Kim pointing out "factually incorrect grounds", but that's mainly because I wanted to see how long it would take hiplop to realise it on his own.
it's pretty weak
and then this, this is a post to throw us all off Kim,
I find the Smudger/SRMP interaction intriguing, but I'm not prepared to commit a vote at this time.
I'd like to hear more from Azorious and Noodles. You two are big fat question marks for me, and that makes me nervous.
Witch_Hunter didn't seem to share your view that Bel's post threw everyone else off of me. His next post had a p-edit directed at Bel asking him to explain his desire to lynch me. Bel's next post had him right back on my wagon:
In post 129, Witch_Hunter wrote:P-edit: @ Belisarius: What about Kim makes him lynch worthy?
His interference with a perceived gambit by hiplop makes no sense from a town perspective, but could come from scum trying to manipulate me while at the same time making a show of standing up to the IC.
There's also something else right on the tip of my tongue, but I've been trying to draw it out for days and it's being a stubborn git.
In post 137, AzoriusSenate wrote:I said the two people I currently want lynched are blue and kim. Do you have any questions for me? I feel like i've made it pretty clear my alignment already but i'm happy to ease your mind. Fire away.
I like both of those lynches myself, although Bluebird less, since defensiveness is the only angle on it.
In post 369, Smudger wrote:now you remember the line about there was something about Kim that made Bel think he was scum, but he couldn't put his finger on it? he stated it early D1 then again here
Spoiler:
In post 233, Belisarius wrote:FMPOV, nothing has changed since Yesterday. I can't pull any useful information from the SRMP lynch since it was basically unanimous.
I still want to lynch either Kim or Bluebird, and my brain's still being an asshole about letting me remember what it was that made me so sure Kim's scum.
well I pushed him on it and he still couldn't remember, do you know what I now think the answer to that question from Bel was?
[It's because they share day talk]
(I moved the answer up here.) As a whole, I obviously can't say why Bel posted what he did. I will say that it doesn't fit the distancing I've seen in my other newbie games.
Spoiler: Details on those games; check my wiki for game links
The first game had the two SEs get into an argument about whether some other player's actions were something newbie scum would do and a misunderstanding that arose from that that ended up in mutual votes and an eventual cooldown. The other was a scum SE starting to rant about how the other SE was scum (he wasn't) and the inactivity of the game (it was), eventually getting profane, and having the actual lurker scumbuddy reply "seriously dude, calm down. The yelling makes you seem desperate for a lynch." The scum SE replied "Glad that you had a lot to say."
There definitely wasn't any hyper-fixated, "Furthermore, I consider that Kim must be lynched" kind of stuff.
anyway, there was something else about Kim that bugged me and it was to do with his view on SRMP. he didn't vote SRMP and even stated that he felt he was town, now why would that be a scum tell. Well, Kim has a few games under his belt and I think he realizes the value as scum to throw people off his scent by scoring town points. whats the best way of doing that? Stating someone who is town, because as Scum you would know that, is town even when their play is scummy and erratic enough to have the majority of players voting them, in fact he didnt even have a vote in place at the time, I questioned him on it, here
now that SRMP has flipped town what do you think? considering you didn't consider him scum.....
and if you didn't think he was scum who did you think was scum at the time, or still think is scum? considering you did not have a vote in place and you really only voted twice, once in RVS for me and once for Hiplop?
You did ask me. I had already answered in post 189, as you quote below. Is there some better way for me to answer if Player X directly asks me if I think Player Y is scum, assuming that I don't think Y is scum?
look at his votes he has stayed away from the main candidates and has voted town players, Hiplop who is dead and me, yes I am town and yes I know you have no way of knowing that, but I am.
Am I really scummy for voting for you in RVS? Really?
I think I've explained my hiplop vote well enough by now. (hiplop seemed to think so, at any rate.) By the way, if hiplop and I were both scum, our exchange around our mutual votes would have been a good example of the kind of distancing I've seen in games.
His argument may well be that he hammered Bel, so? thats called a bus and he did it to attempt to ensure his survival today. he never even questioned me as to why he just went ahead and hammered.
1) I didn't hammer Bel. That was WH.
2) I didn't question you because I was able to figure out that you thought AS had a good reason for voting for Bel. (I didn't think about exactly what your reason was, though. That could have saved me all this typing.)
In post 189, Kim wrote:(I get pulled away from the computer often when I'm at work. I started this post before Belisarius' 181, but it's likely moot now.)
In post 179, Witch_Hunter wrote:But just from reading the thread when he arrived, he must have noticed that's not the way we're playing. It could be culture shock, but even if this explains his posts' disorganization, I don't think it also explains his inconsistent, defensive playstyle.
Agreed with the last part -- the defensiveness seems more like a newbie thing, but if he's* got experience in chat mafia, it doesn't seem like that would be an issue.
*Is SRMP a "he"? I might have overlooked where they said that; anyway, I'm going to assume they are for the rest of this post, at any rate.
However, it's possible that he's just trying to play in the way that seems natural to him. I know some people have viewed my posts as too calculated and viewed that as scummy in pretty much every game I've played so far.
What I got from the SRMP-Smudger fight boils down to "Smudger pressures SRMP to get a reaction, SRMP freaks and makes a very unconvincing case on Smudger". Not damning by itself, but part of an overall behavior that is, at least, anti-town.
I need to start hydra-ing so I can talk with other people about stuff like that. For now, suffice it to say that I disagree with some of that.
While Bluebird and AzoriuSenate don't show up: let's suppose you stay unconvinced. Who do you want lynched today? Belisarius (who isn't convinced either) wants either you or Bluebird. What do you suggest?
I will say that SMRP is the scummiest player to me, but I'd only put the probability that he's scum at around 40 or 45 percent. I guess that's about 20 or 27 on your scum meter. If Plotinus secretly PM'd me and said SMRP was town, I'm not sure where my vote would go. Assuming nothing else of note happened until the deadline (
at which time I'll be unavailable, BTW
), I'd be okay with voting for whichever null player has the most votes -- I would try to be as open as possible about the fact that that was what I was doing, so hopefully I wouldn't be viewed as scummy for doing so.
@AzoriusSenate
: Are you really going to FOS me for not being convinced a theoretical town!SRMP is scum? That seems backwards. I'd assume you would FOS me (or worse) if he flipped scum, so you could save some time and just FOS me now if 188 is accurate. (I'm leaving out the case where we don't lynch SMRP, but I don't see that happening now.)
The reason I would FOS you if he flips town is very simple and i'm starting to fos you more for not really thinking about it. More than likely SMRP is going to be lynched today so at this point it would be a good time for scum to "townread" SMRP if he actually is town. This gives scum towncred when he flips town. I don't think an actual townie would speak up to randomly defend someone who is likely to be lynched unless they are CERTAIN they are town.
Again, it wasn't random -- WH asked Bluebird and me our opinions on SRMP.
In post 190, AzoriusSenate wrote:The reason I would FOS you if he flips town is very simple and i'm starting to fos you more for not really thinking about it. More than likely SMRP is going to be lynched today so at this point it would be a good time for scum to "townread" SMRP if he actually is town. This gives scum towncred when he flips town. I don't think an actual townie would speak up to randomly defend someone who is likely to be lynched unless they are CERTAIN they are town.
It wasn't random -- Witch_Doctor explicitly asked for my thoughts on him in 177. I had a few minutes to post, so I did.
Witch_Hunter wrote:@
Kim, Bluebird, AzoriuSenate
, what about you? Convinced or not? If convinced, please state intent to hammer, but
Scumteam stands as Kim and Bluebird. Curly's play today is town.
what do you get when reading this? bearing in mind everything else I have outlined?
I don't expect people to think that his final accusation here clears me -- I'd expect there to be (at least, but probably just) one true statement in there. (I happen to think that it's "Curly's play today is town.")
and then of course there is his opening post here D3
? I was like 99% sure he was a cop who investigated me, got a Town result, and switched from me to Bel based on Bel's case on me. That was all I could think of that explained both his Day 1 and Day 2 posts.
I was anticipating being all but confirmed town, so I'll need a little time to figure out how best to act. (Also, I'll need sleep, which I'll try to get after this post.)
that just screams scum
Forgive me if I don't take your word for it. There were a few other comments you made in other posts that I wanted to discuss (including a question I missed, I think) -- I'll get to those after a short break.
In post 376, Kim wrote:P-edit: Smudger, you seem to be against a doctor coming out. What about a 1SBP?
what good is there for a doc to out now? I don't see any reason for Doc to out, why would you want him to out?
But in the context of my thoughts on Az the subject of a doctor is relevant a 1SBP is not..... are you claiming that role?
The thoughts about a 1SBP are unrelated to the thoughts about AS. 376 was prompted by the fact that with 4 town and 1 scum, the scum will lose if they falsely claim or counterclaim a town power role.
I am neither confirming nor denying that I am the 1SBP. I am neither confirming nor denying that I am VT. I didn't mean to, but I guess I implied that I am not the doctor in that post. (That's what happens when I post in a hurry.) I am confirming that I am town.
In post 376, Kim wrote:t the end of D1, AS wanted me lynched and presumably had a "heavy FOS" on me. He never mentioned me on D2 until 320, "I'd like to add that [Belisarius'] interaction with Kim leads me to believe Kim is pretty solid town." That switch with no in-depth explanation plus his PR claim (of sorts) led me to think he had gotten a town read on me and was just being aggressive against Bel. Obviously, he didn't and wasn't.
already discounted this, he had a real confirmed target, Bel... you remained his FOS unless of course you can point to where he dropped that FOS on you
He might still think I was suspicious for what I did -- he never replied to my second response -- but he did also say I'm behind you and WH in his lynch list in 337.
In post 376, Kim wrote:based on the lack of protection of some pretty obvious targets. Why shouldn't we get them to claim to get a confirmed town?
which obvious targets this does not make sense
hiplop, the universally-town-read IC, on Day 1. AzoriusSenate, the power role of some sort, on Day 2. (Maybe the latter wasn't quite as obvious as I thought.)
If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?
My (flawed) thought process went something like this:
"AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
"Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
Why
is Smudger so sure?)
"Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
"Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*
Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.
If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?
My (flawed) thought process went something like this:
"AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
"Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
Why
is Smudger so sure?)
"Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
"Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*
Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.
VOTE: Kim
That puts me at L-1, by the way.
State intent to hammer, let me claim my role before hammering, etc.
Which step is where my logic breaks down?
Wouldn't feigning ignorance of what AS was up to be the obvious play for theoretically scum me instead of putting Bel at L-1? I would have already set the framework for it with my +1 of MCN.
Kim. All parts create the whole, the interconnecting pieces I have highlighted complete the case on you. Your rebuttals don't convince me you are town at all. You have already claimed so it's up to bluebird or curly to hammer
"There is nothing more ironic or contradictory than life itself"... R.D.
Honestly I'm not convinced Kim's scum. His rebuttal seems fairly legit to me. On the other hand Smudger and Witch have been the most town out of those who are still alive and have clearly seen things I have not in the past. The only situation I see Kim not being scum is if Bel and Smudger realized super early on that Azorius was onto them and so Smudger purposefully threw Bel under the bus. That seems like it'd be pretty hard to pull off though, and honestly the only reason I'm even considering it is cause they're the two SEs. All of this being said, at this point Smudger and Witch have been towny and right enough times that I trust enough to go along with them. And if I'm wrong it'll probably be pretty clear tomorrow who the maf is
@Kim
Stating intent to hammer. Please claim and all that stuff.
In post 406, Smudger wrote:Kim. All parts create the whole, the interconnecting pieces I have highlighted complete the case on you. Your rebuttals don't convince me you are town at all. You have already claimed so it's up to bluebird or curly to hammer
Where did I claim? (Unless you're saying something like "Your posts (well, Bel's posts) say you're scum.") You're wrong. You've got 13 days to figure that out. What's the rush?
In post 407, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:Honestly I'm not convinced Kim's scum. His rebuttal seems fairly legit to me. On the other hand Smudger and Witch have been the most town out of those who are still alive and have clearly seen things I have not in the past. The only situation I see Kim not being scum is if Bel and Smudger realized super early on that Azorius was onto them and so Smudger purposefully threw Bel under the bus. That seems like it'd be pretty hard to pull off though, and honestly the only reason I'm even considering it is cause they're the two SEs. All of this being said, at this point Smudger and Witch have been towny and right enough times that I trust enough to go along with them. And if I'm wrong it'll probably be pretty clear tomorrow who the maf is
@Kim
Stating intent to hammer. Please claim and all that stuff.
I am a Vanilla Townie.
I really wanted to wait until a reasonable time my time (it's 04:40 as I type this; my alarm goes off in 4 hours) to type this, but I can't sleep now.
I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:
1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.
2) Belisarius made these comments in three consecutive posts (for him, anyway) over the course of 2.5 days in Day 2:
Spoiler:
In post 267, Belisarius wrote:
I'd be hesitant to even consider Witch, he was towny as fuck Yesterday, and I doubt scum-Witch would permit the hiplop kill after the way he, hip, and Smudger had their heads together yesterday. A 3-man "townbloc" containing scum would be a hell of a powerful tool with 4 needed to lynch...hell, I'd probably fall in with them if they worked together today like they did yesterday, and then scum would effectively control the lynch D2.
You won't convince me that Smudger is scum this game. I've tried to fake the kind of passion that was behind his attack on SRMP yesterday and it's not easy. I can't do it.
In post 312, Belisarius wrote:
A universal townread--and the IC in a newbie game to boot--died N1. This is not surprising as any scum except maybe Witch or Smudger would make that kill in order to remove an unlynchable player from the game. Saying that I in particular would have special reason to ice hiplop but NOBODY ELSE WOULD EVER DO THAT is so illogical I can't even wrap my head around the kind of thought process that could possibly lead someone to that conclusion. I can't respond to that any more than I could to an argument that goes "Lynch Beli, the leprechaun told me to!"
In post 313, Belisarius wrote:Oh? Working out that Smudger or Witch wouldn't have broken up a faux-townbloc by killing hiplop isn't trying to figure out the game? Explain this logic in baby talk.
He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH.
The rest of my readlist, with rough scum probabilities:
MrCurlyNoodles, 22.5% -- also played well, but his response to AS's claim could be scum defending scum; a similar reaction is what broke open the Open game Smudger and I subbed out of (counterpoint: I said the same thing, and I'm town)
Bluebird, 7.5% -- really still null, but some other people look bad
Smudger, 2.5% -- maybe MCN's comment above is right, but I doubt it
In post 409, Smudger wrote:Kim in your post 402 you basically claim... you state you are not any PR then you state you are town. If that is not a claim, what is?
I assume you're referring to this:
In post 403, Kim wrote:I am neither confirming nor denying that I am the 1SBP. I am neither confirming nor denying that I am VT. I didn't mean to, but I guess I implied that I am not the doctor in that post. (That's what happens when I post in a hurry.) I am confirming that I am town.
I thought "neither confirm(ing) not deny(ing)" was a well-known turn of phrase, but I just looked it up -- it's an Americanism from the Cold War that you could very easily not be familiar with. Knowing that, I would have rephrased that paragraph. This is what I was trying to say:
"I am neither confirming nor denying that I am the 1SBP." can be broken down into two parts: "I am not confirming that I am the 1SBP." and "I am not denying that I am the 1SBP." The latter phrase is somewhat of a double negative, but it has a different meaning than "I am confirming that I am the 1SBP."
My second sentence was the same, except it referred to my status as a Vanilla Townie (not a power role).
In the future, I'll respond to similar questions with a simpler "I'm not claiming 1SBP now. I'm not claiming VT now."
If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?
My (flawed) thought process went something like this:
"AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
"Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
Why
is Smudger so sure?)
"Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
"Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*
Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.
VOTE: Kim
That puts me at L-1, by the way.
State intent to hammer, let me claim my role before hammering, etc.
Which step is where my logic breaks down?
Wouldn't feigning ignorance of what AS was up to be the obvious play for theoretically scum me instead of putting Bel at L-1? I would have already set the framework for it with my +1 of MCN.
You admitted the weak point yourself: "(What I didn't think of, but should have:
Why
is Smudger so sure?)"
Basically, it doesn't fit your fondness for logic. You've been extremely cautious with your vote for the entire game, then suddenly join the Belisarius wagon without thinking a crucial detail?
In post 408, Kim wrote:
I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:
1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.
2) Belisarius made these comments in three consecutive posts (for him, anyway) over the course of 2.5 days in Day 2:
[...]
He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH.
Nice try. It's flattering to see this depiction of me as a diabolical mastermind of sorts. Alas, it happens to be untrue.
1) The early hammer was a calculated risk. In hindsight, it didn't work, sure. But would it have been townier to wait, then risk MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird asking "Why are you all voting for Belisarius?" and either having no answer or having to expose AzoriusSenate after his effort not to claim PR?
2) Or, he was playing it safe by buddying up to two active players who didn't suspect him. Which proved to be a smart thing to do, since he was only lynched when one of these players, Smudger, figured things out.
By the way, the wiki agrees with my reasoning to hammer yesterday:
A quicklynch, as its name implies, is a lynch whose wagon builds in a relatively short amount of time.
Reckless Towns can do this on their own, of course, and the practice is frequently criticized for wasting a Day's worth of information.
However, there are pro-Town reasons to do this - for instance, if a Cop claims an incriminating result on someone, the best thing to do is quicklynch the incriminated player so as to minimize the amount of information that the scum get when deciding what to do that Night.
When driven by scum, it is an extended quickhammer.
Also from the wiki, on buddying. Looking back, it matches Belisarius' behavior. Smudger and I didn't seriously suspect him for a good while, and his buddying made AzoriusSenate suspect one of us was scum. Pretty much a textbook example.
Buddying is a tactic used to subconsciously become perceived as less of a threat by another player. While this is usually done by scum, Townies have been known to do this as well.
This is typically accomplished by the buddying player acting unnaturally friendly to its target, either subtly or outright.
Originally, this made it so that once the buddying scum died, it implicated the victim they were acting friendly toward. In addition, by budding up to a victim, they will become less likely to want to lynch the buddying player in the first place.
More recently, though, this has become used as a pre-emptive accusation against anyone who acts nicely toward another player, regardless of intent.
Kim. I know you said you will neither confirm or deny. This meant to me that you were claiming VT and that's how I read your post. As the last scum that's what is the best fake claim for the last scum to make in a game where you are unsure of what they remaining town PR is.
Curly as for hammering. Hold let's get Bluebirds take on it....
"There is nothing more ironic or contradictory than life itself"... R.D.
I''ve got a few minutes at a PC that doesn't block ms.net right now -- I'll try to get to as much stuff as I can. I'd appreciate it if you didn't lynch me for about 10 or so hours, though.
If you believed Azorius had townread you, instead of scumreading Belisarius, why did you join yesterday's wagon?
My (flawed) thought process went something like this:
"AS sounds like he's soft-claiming an investigative role. But why would he have investigated Bel? That makes no sense. Have a +1 for calling him out on that, MCN."
"Well, Smudger seems to see something. Am I missing it?" (What I didn't think of, but should have:
Why
is Smudger so sure?)
"Wait -- AS must have investigated me. That fits with his suspicion of me D1 and his non-suspicion on D2. But does that necessarily mean Bel's scum? I'll just answer Smudger's question about Bluebird and think about it some more."
"Well, AS is town unless I'm off my rocker. I can't think of a reason for scum!Smudger to bus Bel prematurely. MCN and WH are both town reads, so let's see where this goes." *votes for Bel*
Well then, I suppose we both agree it is a flawed argument. You saw what Azorius was doing, but managed to somehow misinterpret the situation that badly? Sorry, but I'm not buying it.
VOTE: Kim
That puts me at L-1, by the way.
State intent to hammer, let me claim my role before hammering, etc.
Which step is where my logic breaks down?
Wouldn't feigning ignorance of what AS was up to be the obvious play for theoretically scum me instead of putting Bel at L-1? I would have already set the framework for it with my +1 of MCN.
You admitted the weak point yourself: "(What I didn't think of, but should have:
Why
is Smudger so sure?)"
Basically, it doesn't fit your fondness for logic. You've been extremely cautious with your vote for the entire game, then suddenly join the Belisarius wagon without thinking a crucial detail?
Unfortunately, a fondness for logic doesn't mean I have perfect logic. Also, I didn't think knowing why Smudger thought AS was a power role wasn't as important as it was that he was making a play that he wouldn't if he were scum. Having two people you think are town think someone else is scum is apparently enough for MrCurlyNoodles to state intent to hammer -- why wouldn't it have been enough for me to just put Bel at L-1? (There may have been some subconscious OMGUS on my part, too.)
In post 408, Kim wrote:
I'm like 67.5% sure the last scum is Witch_Hunter. He's played very well -- probably the best of all of us -- but:
1) If he were town, he's shown that he's smart enough to realize that Bel and his scumbuddy would have already had their great farewell discussion in daytalk (or maybe a soliloquy from Bel, depending on if the other person was around at the time) before Bel claimed. That early hammer deprived us of getting reactions from MCN and Blue. It was scum-motivated.
2) Belisarius made these comments in three consecutive posts (for him, anyway) over the course of 2.5 days in Day 2:
[...]
He really really wanted us to know that WH and Smudger were unimpeachably town. Why would he do that? I think Smudger's early support of what AS was doing practically clears him; that leaves WH.
Nice try. It's flattering to see this depiction of me as a diabolical mastermind of sorts. Alas, it happens to be untrue.
1) The early hammer was a calculated risk. In hindsight, it didn't work, sure. But would it have been townier to wait, then risk MrCurlyNoodles and Bluebird asking "Why are you all voting for Belisarius?" and either having no answer or having to expose AzoriusSenate after his effort not to claim PR?
If you had decided to quickhammer Bel because an investigator had gotten a scum result from him, it would have been better not to wait for him to claim at all. You'd still have to explain your actions like you are today, but scum could have actually been caught off guard.
2) Or, he was playing it safe by buddying up to two active players who didn't suspect him. Which proved to be a smart thing to do, since he was only lynched when one of these players, Smudger, figured things out.
He was lynched because AS tracked him. If someone else had realized AS was softclaiming, Bel would have been just as dead. (I'm not intentionally putting this in small font; phpBB keeps inserting a second "/quote" tag after that last quote.)
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Last edited by Plotinus on Fri Jan 29, 2016 6:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
A quicklynch, as its name implies, is a lynch whose wagon builds in a relatively short amount of time.
Reckless Towns can do this on their own, of course, and the practice is frequently criticized for wasting a Day's worth of information.
However, there are pro-Town reasons to do this - for instance, if a Cop claims an incriminating result on someone, the best thing to do is quicklynch the incriminated player so as to minimize the amount of information that the scum get when deciding what to do that Night.
When driven by scum, it is an extended quickhammer.
Like I said, I think that's referring to when you don't wait for the lynchee to claim.
In post 413, MrCurlyNoodles wrote:So is this when I hammer? Or should I wait for Bluebird's opinion etc.?
Others have said to wait for Bluebird. However, I'd add that since the game will be over if I turn up scum, you don't need to worry about what your actions will be in case I do flip scum. (Protip: I won't.) Therefore, I don't think it would hurt to take the time to think about what a townflip for me would mean to you and your opinion of the others.
In post 416, Smudger wrote:Kim. I know you said you will neither confirm or deny. This meant to me that you were claiming VT and that's how I read your post. As the last scum that's what is the best fake claim for the last scum to make in a game where you are unsure of what they remaining town PR is.
How did you interpret the fact that I would neither confirm nor deny VT? Also, I've already said that a fake PR claim by scum toDay would be a guaranteed loss once the real PR counterclaims, regardless of whether the scum guess the role we actually have correctly.
P.S. The message to MrCurlyNoodles was what I really wanted to say before a lynch. I'm willing to defend myself until the deadline, but I've said all I have to say for now.
To do that you have to claim then convince everyone you are not scum
The claim has to be believable
Thus it would be suicidal for the last scum. One who has a case against him which makes sense. To claim anything other that VT. Especially in an open game.
Thus you make a statement such as you did, which is in fact another attempt to look town by stating "I will neither confirm or deny". I read between the lines, you were lining up a VT claim. So don't try to say you were not, you were, because you did.
Does anyone believe Bluebird us actually going to play? Honestly if I did not feel strongly about Kim being scum, Bluebird's game to date is completely useless and deserves to be lynched. Bluebird please don't take this personally but you are not playing very well at all.
"There is nothing more ironic or contradictory than life itself"... R.D.
(I'm leaving out the case where we don't lynch SMRP, but I don't see that happening now.)
There were a few other comments you made in other posts that I wanted to discuss (including a question I missed, I think) -- I'll get to those after a short break.
