In post 646, MrTrow wrote:I hope to get to the Newbie-Droog exchange tomorrow as well, but as of now RF has risen to competing with Math for top-scum-read
This.
It was the general consensus that RF3 was town. But I was having thoughts that maybe they weren't, and I didn't want to mention it yet. You, evidently, had them too. (Except you didn't really because you are scum.)
-the smart head
So not only the emptiest statement, but also the oldest?
'gone from competing for #2 scum, to competing to #1 scum' was what you were referring to with 'what i thought but didn't want to articulate'
And now brushing off what i've been saying since my fourth post (back when replacing in, @D1) as something new a week into D2.
If there is anyone out there who believes this answer: WHY?
What first caught my eye was the really terrible votes at the beginning of day 3. None of them were well-explained. 799 is Egg setting up to WK RF3. Shaddow’s is bad, and not explained (except for the accusation of WKing). Trow’s is awful, cherry-picking one line of one post that might be considered antitown (not even scummy). (Karnage’s and Titus’s weren’t great either, but read ahead.) My final conclusion is that Newbie is really bad at forming and explaining reads, but my analysis shows she probably isn’t scum. Now Trow is attacking me over basically nothing.
It is important to keep in mind that scum need two mislynches to win. We can allow one mislynch and still win. So the scum need to set up one future mislynch: “Lynch Newbie today, hopefully Something Pip will follow us, and we can lynch Something Pip tomorrow.” A push to L-2 early on is not in town’s interest, and is probably scum-led.There are nine players in this game. Before I can start to look for associations, I need to narrow down the suspect pool, using Occam's razor.
It is my opinion that it is unwise for scum to brazenly bulldoze mislynches. That makes me think droog is town. Besides, he's done a huge amount of motivation-hunting that scum generally don't do effectively. Of our townreads, Droog is probably the weakest, but given how bad the position of the game is for town here and how likely a scum victory is, certain assumptions need to be made to have the game be solvable.
Burning_Earth's early play was pretty town, and his observations were good. Titus's play has also been enough for a fairly strong town read.
I had a strong gut townread on Sharky, and Karnage has done nothing to make me doubt it. All of karnage's posts are either trying to determine alignment or trying convince other people of his reads. karnage has been independently towny, and when combined with Sharky we are pretty sure that slot is town.
None of these are set in stone. But they're good starting points for the following analysis.
Looking at the posts of <RF3, Egg, MrTrow, Newbie, shaddow>, I went through and marked each time that one of them mentioned another of them in a way that could be alignment-indicative (null mentions are omitted), and whether that mention is more likely or less likely to be scum-scum. Here are the results:
Likely
Unlikely
Egg/RF3:
576, 577, 635, 757, 762
Egg/shaddow:
422, 576, 582(weaker but still), 693
259
Egg/Newbie:
346, 576, 709, 711, 753, 793, 804
Egg/Trow:
454, 576
RF3/shaddow:
259
376, 514
RF3/Newbie:
47, 56, 60, 79, 709
RF3/Trow:
461, 487, 492, 501, 514, 562, 579, 748, 780, 781
shaddow/Newbie:
90, 361, 549
shaddow/Trow:
454
Newbie/Trow:
454
This indicates strongly a team of Egg/shaddow/Trow. There is one post that appears to make it unlikely, post 259 (bolded). This is where shaddowez votes Egg's predecessor, TheDominator37. This is bussing, I believe, especially since he unvotes four pages later for not a good reason except that Lowell is scummier (355), plus the dom wagon was starting to take off after Newbie voted for dom and we expressed interest in voting dom in the past. The reason I believe bussing did not occur before is that there are quite a lot of proven town-on-town votes. The key here is not that scum never townread each other and always align, but that the three players have hardly interacted at all. 454 for example is a readlist of Trow's where egg and shaddow were all null.
both lynches. In my opinion, both players were scummy enough that scum could be on fine. The only two players off both lynches were MrTrow and Burning_Earth, and BE was not even there at all day 2. So right off the bat, I got the feeling that maybe MrTrow was trying not to associate himself with townwagons. Especially with his switch to RF3, who was not going to be lynched.
Another thing to note is that never, until the Mathilda wagon, did any two of them vote together. And when it looked like Egg would get pressure for not being on Mathilda's wagon, Trow hopped off so that all three of them would not be sitting on the same wagon.
One of the most important things to consider when considering a scumteam is, what is their agenda and have they pushed it? They absolutely have. Shaddow and Egg have encouraged the mislynches with their votes. Trow has stayed off the mislynches so that when he comes out with a case on us it will seem valid. They haven't interacted much with each other, and decided bussing was not a good strategy because of the setup and because town was eating itself. Now they're going to have Egg and shaddow hard push Newbie while Trow quietly pushes us. That would enable them to easily get one vote on us tomorrow, and quickhammer.
^I agree with this. Newbie has gotten quiter as she's gotten more suspected and the reads lisr + "peace" rubs me the wrong way there.
In post 818, Titus wrote:No...I am not yet. Given my last game that just finished, I am a little reluctant to rush to judgment here.
I had two others that went well...and then that one.
Elaborate please.
Something Pip, if Concvex and Lowell both got to L-2 as town with no scum on the wagon, it would honestly be in the top 5 craziest things I've ever seen in a mafia game and I'm guessing I've played about 300 games. That's not VCA. That's trying to make VCA fit with your theory.
First things first, the best VCAs are done with scumflips but in desperation can be done without it. The proper way to do a VCA is to grab all the VCs, color them. Detail what you expect to find. Type out your conclusion with evidence.
Right now, the pattern you observe can just as easily be town trying to correct the ship, which is what I think happened. The VCA doesn't support the strong conclusions you make.
Second, your newbie read is whiteknighting to all hell. You got a guy who is terrible at expressing reads, you draw him out? Terrible at forming reads...that's a scum sign, not a town one. If you say he's terrible at forming reads then you can encourage people to disregard him while making him look like a mislynch that has to happen before lylo with your hands clean.
Only scum have the luxury of speaking in absolutes, so saying "X, Y, and Z are definitely scum" does not look to come from a town POV. You're also taking multiple things out of context in order to frame your argument, not actually using context and interactions. You're not willing to say anybody is town unless they've flipped or you're using PoE (again, based on your
certainty
that the three of us you've listed are scum). I can find multiple instances of interactions, or lack of interactions, that meet up with your "scum team" criteria. It's also convenient that you know this whole plan of how we've all schemed up the day, which is exactly why we're all acting the way we are.
Additionally, Newbie, one of your town reads, is reading myself and Trow as town - so either you're saying she's a terrible player, or something else is fishy.
Lastly (for now), I've been reading Newbie as scummy since my intro post, so saying that I haven't made any arguments against her is BS.
In post 813, Karnage wrote:i'd prefer a newbie lynch over a something pip lynch atm
Also, while I still think Newbie is scum, I'm not sure who the third is. This doesn't seem like the Scum!Titus I've played with before, so I'm pretty sure it's not that slot. If I absolutely had to guess right now it would be the RF3 slot, but I'm not positive.
First things first, the best VCAs are done with scumflips but in desperation can be done without it. The proper way to do a VCA is to grab all the VCs, color them. Detail what you expect to find. Type out your conclusion with evidence.
Right now, the pattern you observe can just as easily be town trying to correct the ship, which is what I think happened. The VCA doesn't support the strong conclusions you make.
Second, your newbie read is whiteknighting to all hell. You got a guy who is terrible at expressing reads, you draw him out? Terrible at forming reads...that's a scum sign, not a town one. If you say he's terrible at forming reads then you can encourage people to disregard him while making him look like a mislynch that has to happen before lylo with your hands clean.
@egg, I just botched a 3p lylo game.
First off, neither of us are particularly experienced at VCA and the conclusions brought were more about the lack of interaction between the 3 players rather than the VCA.
Second is that I honestly can't imagine the 4 people on Newbie all being town here, the speed in which that wagon took off without really any strong analysis backing it up really concerned me and just everyone coming to the same conclusion at the same time like that is odd to say the least. While it could be scum bussing their partner, the game gets much more difficult for mafia if we end up going to 5v2. Also I think the no kill yesterday was very much indicative of a newer scum team since that decision gave town an extra lynch. Obviously these don't make Newbie town here, and her reaction to the wagon was terrible, but that doesn't mean that pointing out concerns with the wagon is whiteknighting, especially when we are so far from the deadline.
Only scum have the luxury of speaking in absolutes, so saying "X, Y, and Z are definitely scum" does not look to come from a town POV.
Really lazy read, isn't factually true if you meta either of us and doesn't actually look at the quality of our reads.
You're also taking multiple things out of context in order to frame your argument, not actually using context and interactions. You're not willing to say anybody is town unless they've flipped or you're using PoE (again, based on your
certainty
that the three of us you've listed are scum).
I honestly don't understand what you are saying here, but I'm pretty sure its wrong. The people that flipped are what we call confirmed town, and past that droog, titus and scorp are genuine townreads of ours based on post quality.
I can find multiple instances of interactions, or lack of interactions, that meet up with your "scum team" criteria. It's also convenient that you know this whole plan of how we've all schemed up the day, which is exactly why we're all acting the way we are.
What are these arguments? No we don't think that these decision were necessarily conscious explicitly laid out strategies, but were the result of scum not wanting to interact with scum when town is consistently barking up the wrong tree.
Additionally, Newbie, one of your town reads, is reading myself and Trow as town - so either you're saying she's a terrible player, or something else is fishy.
This is an awful argument, yesterday we were townreading shaddow, didn't support the wagon on egg at all and none of our scum worlds contained you. Town have wrong reads all the time, hence why we've had two mislynches this game so far.
Lastly (for now), I've been reading Newbie as scummy since my intro post, so saying that I haven't made any arguments against her is BS.
In post 813, Karnage wrote:i'd prefer a newbie lynch over a something pip lynch atm
VOTE: newbie
Does this still hold true?
In post 831, shaddowez wrote:Also, while I still think Newbie is scum, I'm not sure who the third is. This doesn't seem like the Scum!Titus I've played with before, so I'm pretty sure it's not that slot. If I absolutely had to guess right now it would be the RF3 slot, but I'm not positive.
So you think we have bussed this entire game and just so happened that town liked the mislynches better than the actual scum. We would have supported a newbie lynch all of d1 and most of d2, and I started the counterwagon on RF3 yesterday.
^I agree with this. Newbie has gotten quiter as she's gotten more suspected and the reads lisr + "peace" rubs me the wrong way there.
In post 818, Titus wrote:No...I am not yet. Given my last game that just finished, I am a little reluctant to rush to judgment here.
I had two others that went well...and then that one.
Elaborate please.
Something Pip, if Concvex and Lowell both got to L-2 as town with no scum on the wagon, it would honestly be in the top 5 craziest things I've ever seen in a mafia game and I'm guessing I've played about 300 games. That's not VCA. That's trying to make VCA fit with your theory.
Okay, this is a fair point and one I talked to SS about. I think there is a fair chance that droog might be scum here (hence the weaker read disclaimer I added). I hard push as scum so I think it is much more likely that droog is scum than SS.
-pip
Pedit: I honestly think of the 3 egg might be the towniest. I might move to Shaddowz after 831 though.
PIP: 2 questions:
- do you believe even a single word of that case you just presented?
- which one?
(there is no way, 2 town-aligned players, sat together, went over this case and both signed off on it)
Something Pip wrote:and I started the counterwagon on RF3 yesterday.
Wasn't the fact i was pushing RF3, while you believed it in the town's best interest, to keep your suspicions of RF3 hidden.
Your entire answer to our, 'what were you saying here (because i doubt there is a town-motivation for this)'-exchange.
That statement of which you, take my unwillingness, to tell you which explanation i would buy, as your entire connection-independent argument.
@Newbie:
I have a reason to think you are town.
Do something with it.
Give us something to work with.
Back up your reads.
My scum read on Egg is connected to my scum read on droog. Dom's (who egg replaced) opening was literally one of the scummiest things I've ever come across. Worse than all of Lowell's posts, but droog had him as a top town read and couldn't even explain why. Then when egg replaced in, droog followed his vote on me. Also, droog's push of math seemed dishonest and flimsy. I'm not as sure about the BE scum read as I once was, but it's still there. Like that Titus didn't immediately just jump on my wagon, though.
Actually droog did explain why.
Doms entry was indeed terrible, but wouldn't help him much (if at all) as scum.
All it did was piss people off.
Droog pointed out (that, while undeniably anti-town), scum would likely avoid doing that.
The droog-math exchange is something i still have to dive into (again, i hope to have time this weekend)
Do you have any thoughts on pips case?
I'm mostly interested in: what makes you think both 'something' and 'pip', actually believe what they stated there?
(but other thoughts are also welcome of-course)
The same could be said about Lowell. He pissed people off so much that it got him lynched.
As for Pip/Smart's case, I find it interesting that they think you, shadow, and egg are scum but aren't willing to put their vote on egg. So no, I'm not sure they actually believe what they stated.
Lowell was town though, so the 'tell' still stands. (now i'm wondering if 'why didn't you consider lowell town?' is a question that was ever posed to him. (if so and unanswered, you might have a point here))
As for pip: If you don't believe, they believe their own case.
Why aren't you voting them?
Or posted any concerns on the matter?
Ok, but is Newbie displaying similarities to someone who was mislynched there or is your confidence just shot or what? Because I don't see why that leads to not thinking Newbie deserves a vote.
Shadow wrote: Additionally, Newbie, one of your [pip] town reads, is reading myself and Trow as town - so either you're saying she's a terrible player, or something else is fishy.
This is a stretch. Just because you disagre with someone's reads doesn't mean you think they are a terrible player.
Something Pip wrote: Second is that I honestly can't imagine the 4 people on Newbie all being town here, the speed in which that wagon took off without really any strong analysis backing it up really concerned me and just everyone coming to the same conclusion at the same time like that is odd to say the least
1) speed of a wagon is over rater
2) it's not that reasons on Newbie aren't there. They were just posted a long time ago. See my first post for example.
3) not everyone came to that conclusion at the same time and even if they did, why is that a problem?
Something Pip wrote: Also I think the no kill yesterday was very much indicative of a newer scum team
Yet you are scumreading Trow and myself...
Mrtrow wrote: @Newbie:I have a reason to think you are town
What reason is that?
Newbie wrote: My scum read on Egg is connected to my scum read on droog. Dom's (who egg replaced) opening was literally one of the scummiest things I've ever come across. Worse than all of Lowell's posts, but droog had him as a top town read and couldn't even explain why. Then when egg replaced in, droog followed his vote on me. Also, droog's push of math seemed dishonest and flimsy. I'm not as sure about the BE scum read as I once was, but it's still there. Like that Titus didn't immediately just jump on my wagon, though.
Why am I scummier than droog then?
Newbie wrote: The same could be said about Lowell. He pissed people off so much that it got him lynched.
And yet he flipped town.
Newbie wrote: As for Pip/Smart's case, I find it interesting that they think you, shadow, and egg are scum but aren't willing to put their vote on egg. So no, I'm not sure they actually believe what they stated.
This might interest you:
Something Pip wrote: I honestly think of the 3 egg might be the towniest. I might move to Shaddowz after 831 though.
Mrtrow wrote: As for pip: If you don't believe, they believe their own case.Why aren't you voting them?Or posted any concerns on the matter?
Something Pip wrote: I honestly think of the 3 egg might be the towniest. I might move to Shaddowz after 831 though.
He made a big case connecting three people but isn't willing to vote one of the connections who already has a vote. That's why it's hard to tell if he's actually genuine about his case.
Mrtrow wrote: @Newbie:I have a reason to think you are town
What reason is that?
I've been vague on this because i wanted newbie back to posting, before anyone could try to counter this. But:
The nightkill.
The 2 obvious upcoming lynches were Newbie and RF3 (both in order of likeliness, and in order it was going to happen) and pretty fast at that.
They killed off, the fresh perspective: at least one of those 2 is town
Newbie wrote: And he was also less scummier than you.
I don't see what point you were trying to make if his town flip doesn't mean anything.
Newbie wrote: He made a big case connecting three people but isn't willing to vote one of the connections who already has a vote. That's why it's hard to tell if he's actually genuine about his case.
Unless you are suggesting he and I are scum together (and you might be so if so whatever all I can say is "you're wrong"), there is no issue here. People will naturally have different levels of confidence in their scum reads.
Preview edit: *shrug*. I thought it was an attempt to get a kill through without worrying about PGO because seriously who PGOs as soon as they replace in. The no kill N1 makes me think scum are pretty worried about that kind of thing.
Mrtrow wrote: @Newbie:I have a reason to think you are town
What reason is that?
I've been vague on this because i wanted newbie back to posting, before anyone could try to counter this. But:
The nightkill.
The 2 obvious upcoming lynches were Newbie and RF3 (both in order of likeliness, and in order it was going to happen) and pretty fast at that.
They killed off, the fresh perspective: at least one of those 2 is town
I'm thinking trow and newbie could be scum together. A lot of this seems like coaching/begging her to be more active
