Borderlands Mafia [GAME OVER]

[T S O]

Will someone please fucking do something about Not_Varsoon tonight. Seriously. We got burned in YCBA for disregarding the lurkers in the early game and it took three town lynches in a row before we finally got to them. I don't support him being vigged but I support basically anything else there.

[Nicole Mimi Tithel]

No need to give an in-depth explanation or anything, just which posts (+ a brief explanation if you wish) should be fine enough for fact-checking purposes.

Well it was 3032 in specific, it just gave me a general town vibe. Sorry if that explanation isn't good enough. I'm so out-of-it at the moment, like I tried to analyze too much and now I can't think properly, ugh. It's better I refrain from going in-depth with stuff right now because it's only gonna be more detrimental in the long run, especially if y'all decide to go after me next time around.

@elyse: I took a complete break this morning. I think that's worth noting.

I don't have any problems with this.

Which posts did you read in coming to this conclusion (i.e. what section of the game thread)? For this question I'm not interested in which posts specifically made you think he was town, I mean the general section of the game thread you were rereading at the point where you saw this post.

[T S O]

I think Rob said something to me earlier about sorting beeboy. I do not think I am capable of remaining objective about beeboy's alignment right now, so that's really how it is.

[Suzune]

Suzune, do you have an non-English first language and if so do you care to share which one it is?

Yes I have a non-english first language. I'm originally from Italy but have lived many years in Germany and Ireland.

[popsofctown]

Will someone please fucking do something about Not_Varsoon tonight. Seriously. We got burned in YCBA for disregarding the lurkers in the early game and it took three town lynches in a row before we finally got to them. I don't support him being vigged but I support basically anything else there.

If you don't support him getting vigged what do you support? Investigation is a waste, it's most powerful on scummy people, contrary to what Rob said, maximum value of lower but the probability of getting value is dramatically higher. Like you could roleblock him I guess, I guess that's the only thing that's not waste.

Maybe invite him to your neighborhood and see if he comes out of his shell a lil? There's not much.

[popsofctown]

Geez you're trilingual?

[YT2980]

No need to give an in-depth explanation or anything, just which posts (+ a brief explanation if you wish) should be fine enough for fact-checking purposes.

Well it was 3032 in specific, it just gave me a general town vibe. Sorry if that explanation isn't good enough. I'm so out-of-it at the moment, like I tried to analyze too much and now I can't think properly, ugh. It's better I refrain from going in-depth with stuff right now because it's only gonna be more detrimental in the long run, especially if y'all decide to go after me next time around.

@elyse: I took a complete break this morning. I think that's worth noting.

I don't have any problems with this.

Which posts did you read in coming to this conclusion (i.e. what section of the game thread)? For this question I'm not interested in which posts specifically made you think he was town, I mean the general section of the game thread you were rereading at the point where you saw this post.

Around page 122, I think?

[SirCakez]

I wouldn't mind Rob being on a lurker. It's most effective that way since it's next to impossible to correctly read lurkers.

[Elyse]

05 beeboy - Unsure. There are so many things that make him scummy but then a few things make me go "there's no way that could be scum"

What are the things that make you go "no way he could be scum"?

Mostly his actions surrounding the Dwlee wagon. I just don't see why, as scum, he'd put himself out there so much over someone he could easily lynch. And him flopping twice like he did almost goes into the "too scummy to be scum" category, but more likely that he doesn't give a fuck how he is perceived, which I think is townie.

@TSO
I've thought about that. My scumread on you is mostly due to the fact that I don't think you actually believe in what you're fighting for right now. What is your response to the fact that my scumbuddy gladiated a townie they thought they could lynch when there was a guilty on me and ended up winning the game? Your declarations of "wguerts is town" are really strange to me. I don't think you actually think that. The question is why you are taking that stance.

You also fit nicely with wguerts scum as well. A Mimi/TSO/wguerts/pops team seems way too good to be true though lol.

[Suzune]

Geez you're trilingual?

It do not use my Italian much anymore, it would be sloppy at best. Perhaps sound broken. Back to the game though, otherwise I will get off topic.

[beeboy]

The sound of a future TSO wagon is music to my ears.

[Nicole Mimi Tithel]

Around page 122, I think?

I'm assuming you meant 112? If not maybe you should come back to this question when you're less out of it

[Rob14]

I'm trusting Rob on this. For example, if he was a cop that got back Mimi was scum and he was bus driven, the PM would have to say "Result: Scum" or something. It couldn't say "Nicole Mimi Tithel is scum" because that would be a direct lie.

I can't quote direct communications from the mod. But I can quote random posts due to ~reasons~.

[Rob14]

I wouldn't mind Rob being on a lurker. It's most effective that way since it's next to impossible to correctly read lurkers.

I intend to be on someone I find very null, as is optimal. That's all I'm saying. Could be a lurker or someone who's just super hard to sort. I listed a whole bunch of nulls a while back.

[SirCakez]

Yeah that also works Rob.
No TSO wagons until Pops, Nicole and Almost are gone.

[SirCakez]

Yeah that also works Rob.
No TSO wagons until Pops, Nicole and Almost are gone.

And Beeboy, whoops.

[Skullduggery]

"Keep your wits about you, minion -- this glacier's run by a bandit named Captain Flynt. The jerk kept me as his torture plaything for a few months. We played games like 'dodge the blowtorch' and 'don't get dunked into the pool of acid.' I was really good at the first one!"
~Claptrap

Day 2, Vote Count #13

Only wgeurts and pisskop are eligible for the Day 2 lynch

Current Vote Count:

(0)

Rob13

(0)

Nicole Mimi Tithel

(0)

beeboy

(0)

YT2980

(0)

I_Am_Not_Varsoon

(0)

T S O

(0)

PeregrineV

(0)

Suzune

(0)

Maxous

(0)

CooLDoG

(0)

Flubbernugget

(0)

Venmar

(0)

grapes

(9)

wgeurts -- pisskop, Venmar, beeboy, grapes, Suzune, Rob13, Nicole Mimi Tithel, Elyse, SirCakez

(0)

Almost50

(0)

Nero Cain

(0)

Elyse

(0)

popsofctown

(5)

pisskop -- wgeurts, Almost50, popsofctown, CooLDoG, T S O

(0)

SirCakez

Not Voting:

I_Am_Not_Varsoon, PeregrineV, Flubbernugget, Nero Cain, Maxous, YT2980

With 20 votes available, it takes 11 votes to hammer.

Venmar is V/LA until 2/21.

Day 2 Will End on Monday, February 29th, at 8 p.m. eastern time.
Countdown: (expired on 2016-02-29 20:00:00)

[beeboy]

Wow I found a good scum hunting method, you just copy paste the people voting pissok.

[popsofctown]

(9) wgeurts -- pisskop, Venmar, beeboy,

[SirCakez]

Pops are you scumreading Venmar? That post implies it.

[popsofctown]

Pops are you scumreading Venmar? That post implies it.

Posts like this where I don't feel the need to say anything other than "yes" makes me wish mafiascum had an "attached signed emote to this post" doohickey or something like I have on slackchat.
I guess maybe that could get out of hand in some ways or something though

[SirCakez]

Venamr is townie as hell though. You need to explain that.

[popsofctown]

There's nothing to add, the stuff I said I wasn't fond of before is what it is. I'm not trying to lynch him right now or anything.

[Nicole Mimi Tithel]

Sure it is detrimental. It gives them more information as regards the setup and gives them a bigger road map off of which they can plan their night actions.

I don't really want to wall theory with you (or anyone else), but, fine. I'll give a more in-depth response when I have a solid block of time again to sit down and write longer posts.

OK

So there are several problems with the idea of "not claiming until massclaim/absolutely 100% necessary" that most players have a tendency to overlook, and since it's going to have a drastic effect on how this plays out, I'm going to talk about it here. Since no one trusts me, and people need to read this _before_ I flip in order for it to have any effect on anything, nowhere in here will I start from/rely on the premise of me being town, or what happens "after I flip", in any of my arguments. That's right, you can read this right the fuck now regardless of your read on my slot. ~

The first one is - this was mentioned in-thread already but I'll explain it here to show just how much of a point it actually is - that it completely ignores the possibility of scum counters, which in this case is a completely naive assumption. Rob has, openly said in the game thread, that the incomplete flips in this game don't bother him because his role name is self-explanatory. OK. From here, what is one thing that is likely to happen? If scum have a rolecop, all they do is rolecop him and they immediately understand, 100%, what his role does. And that's it. That completely kills off any chance of scum (or that scum team. W/e) "tailoring their claim to his result", which is the whole reason Rob is pushing for not fullclaiming. Now, this isn't to say people should just fullclaim immediately- the reason it applies here is because Rob has already outed himself as an investigative PR which can get definitive guilties. As soon as he outed the fact he had such a PR, he became a primary target for any kind of scum counter.

Other examples would be roleblocks - he can't do anything if scum chain roleblocks him all game. You could argue in some cases that if scum has a counter to a role, it would no longer apply after it's dead (i.e. try to keep yourself alive long enough to outlive the roleblocker). But, in practice, this is very, very unlikely, and you basically have to just sit and pray you'll get lucky enough in order for it to work. Let's suppose there *is* a doctor, or another protective role, in the game which can heal him (even ignoring the fact the claimed doctor in this game is ... incapable of ... healing him ...) It essentially amounts to a battle of whether the town protective role outlives the RB, in a setup with 2 scum-directed kills per night. And this is all ignoring there are weaker counters like tracks, vanilla cops, etc. which can narrow it down, strongmen which in this case would completely fuck the idea of "living until I can get results" in the ass entirely, or that scum have more advantage as to who a potential town protective role. It's extremely unlikely and people who try it are usually completely misguided. Or, in the case of a redirect, he can still get results but they won't be useful.

Plus this also ignores sheer numbers - there could easily be 2+ roles that could counter it, ESPECIALLY if this is a multiball setup, and in that case the argument applies to each one individually. There's no way there are literally fucking none of these sorts of roles in the game. It's a total crapshoot, even if you think it's not.

And this is all ignoring the fact I already know with certainty there's something in this game that can, and did, royally assfuck his role on a foundational level . . . but not relying on myself being town, not giving any outside opinion, etc. . . /sighs Hey, maybe if I put subliminal messages like this in my theory post, someone will be swayed by it?

As a subpoint, in practice, hardly anything is actually gained by scum who are able to tailor their claims around investigative results. I mentioned before about a game where I saw what I thought was a tracker who tracked me to a kill, and started setting up a claim so I could claim I visited that player. Now, if that had actually happened, and I claimed accordingly what would the correct response be? Think about it . . . that's right, lynch the guilty *regardless* of the claim. You wouldn't ever not lynch someone who claims miller after someone got a cop guilty on them, and in the case of more ambiguous guilties, you would analyze it and probably wind up lynching it anyway, either because it's not believable or to clear the WIFOM on a later game day. The sole exception to this is if there are factors that make the claim really obviously believable, i.e. crumbs. I.e., in the miller example, you likely wouldn't lynch if aforementioned miller crumbed in their first post of the game.

Thus, the whole idea that "I don't want to give scum chances to tailor their claim around mine" is in reality a load of shit. This is a similar principle to why "leaving claims alive so they can confirm their role exists" is usually a poor course of action - it's too unreliable, and by that point if they have a null claim you might as well try to read them based on their actual gameplay (yes, it can be done! I've lynched someone who claimed hider on D1 while a bunch of people complained about it and they flipped scum.) But anyway.

The second one is that it completely shuts down any kind of relevant discussion related to what his role is. When a claim comes out, there is more information given than just the actual claim. You now have more knowledge of what the setup looks like on a macro level, which in turn allows you to, for instance, analyze other claims, analyze how someone's play fit in with their claims, or define plans to coordinate night actions. I.e., as the most extreme example I can think of if there's only one scum left in a 13p game, it's often correct just to massclaim immediately because something like a tracker or an RB can break the game

and people still don't want to massclaim for *insert shit reason here* which in turn let the one surviving scum go on to win the game... /sigh,

but even if it's earlier in the game, you can still in turn use it to figure out more about the setup. And you can use this information to refine your reads on, or potentially clear or condemn, players. This kind of information is, a lot of the time, a lot more protown than actual claims and its' why partial massclaims are usually really bad - you get a bunch of info from claims which scum can capitalize on, but none of the higher-level info that's actually protown. This is something that's often overlooked because people can't plan it out in advance (you usually don't know exactly what you're going to get when you claim, and so people tend to oppose full claiming unless necessary because "why should I claim") - but think about before, there really is not as much to lose as you think there is and at the very least it stops people from having to waste a bunch of time questioning it.

As I said before this doesn't just mean "claim lel" - the key point here is that by claiming some details of your role and leaving out other stuff, as Rob did here,

scum gains a massive advantage from it, but town does not

. And no, "not letting scum tailor their claim around mine" is not an advantage regardless if you think it is or not and if you still think that it is you haven't fully read my post up to here. And in some cases yes, it does make sense to only claim partially; as discussed in this thread, if Rob plans on fullclaiming, there is no drawback from waiting until D3 to do so since there is nothing that can be gained by him fullclaiming now. But being like "there's no reason for me to leave my partial claim, which already gave scum a shitton of info, on the table, and I won't fullclaim ever until it's necessary for me to do so" is seriously seriously overplaying it.

So, tl;dr, the key points here are:

- it's completely naive to work on the assumption there are no scum counters to your role
- "withholding info from scum" isn't as positive-utility as most people think it is
- partial claiming can be good if done correctly, but if you've given scum a significant amount of information as to what and how strong your role is already, it's usually just anti-town
- withholding info info stifles relevant discussion/planning, which could and often is relevant and gives as much (or more) info as the actual claim, and encourages irrelevant discussion based on misguided or incomplete assumptions

But really you should read the post bc that's only a very high-level summary.

[grapes]

Venamr is townie as hell though. You need to explain that.

I mean. Townie as hell might be pushing it.

But you could also explain that.