Mini 1755: Game Over

[Ircher]

Now, why?

[Heat]

its in my iso somewhere lemme go find it

[Heat]

the things i have in my head rn are:
AI was killed when i think they were the only one who wasn't townreading you
You said you were willing to lynch me so much you would assume i was godfather if i was innocent'd. where'd that confidence go
the fact u were so townread but not NKed yet is like... meh
also you kept on insisting u were about to be the nk which gave me bad feels

doo doo doooooo

[Ircher]

Hmmm.... Ok, I made up my mind:

Intent to hammer Axle in ~15 hrs (Idk, between 11 and 1 EST)

@Axle
Final comments?

[Ircher]

I dod not look through Heat's ISO today like I said I would.

While I feel a bit uncomfortable with an Axle lynch, I don't have any good scumreads right now, and executing a lynch seems to be better than no lynch. I request that Massive does not hammer beforehand.

Finally, I will try to look through Heat's ISO and maybe Keyser's ISO during the night phase.

[Heat]

I dod not look through Heat's ISO today like I said I would.

im offended

also you flipped hard on axle
whats up with that

[Heat]

aaand now all of a sudden uur against a no lynch

hmm
I'm not sure I like this

[Heat]

UNVOTE:

i dont want a quick hammer

[Heat]

I am flip flopping between ircher and axle but i cant seem to make up my mind.

Ircher, I would like you to actually come up with scumreads instead of lynching someone you do not believe in

[AxleGreaser]

Ok I am here and posting.
The TLDR is that :
If I get flipped we meet my one of {PK,Massive,Axle} criteria so I have stuff I think needs saying today.
I have not yet fully digested whats happened since I last posted, but iw as and am voting the one person most likely to flip scum
Assuming you mislynch me you will be at LYLO with one and only one lynch. I suggest you lynch Ircher.

I will be pissed off it is, PK, but if it is, he beat you guys and I would agree out maneuvered me.

PEdit ... and i am not at L-1 again.
Given the time frames i intend to continue.

I am flip flopping between ircher and axle but i cant seem to make up my mind.

Ircher, I would like you to actually come up with scumreads instead of lynching someone you do not believe in

I would love the fuck out of that.... because if you are town and i get lynched then
I ruuuuuuuuuly would like to be able to recommend PK, but currently I just can't.

[AxleGreaser]

Well, my gist as far as the Axle nk is that Axle is prob. the best player still alive right now. While he isn't always right,

he does good job of looking town and always makes supported reads

. In other words, it would be very difficult, though not impossible, for scum to frame and have Axle lynched in LyLo.

Which as I read it amounts to quite significant amount of confidence I am town.
and according to you wouldn't get mislynched in LYLO.

and yet...

Hmmm.... Ok, I

made up my mind

:

Intent to hammer Axle in ~15 hrs (Idk, between 11 and 1 EST)

@Axle
Final comments?

So yes indeed

Now, why?

made up your mind

about what?
for what reasons?

Is this for instance the reason you have stated intent to lynch me?

Well, my gist as far as the Axle nk is that Axle is prob. the best player still alive right now. While he isn't always right,

he does good job of looking town and always makes supported reads

. In other words, it would be very difficult, though not impossible, for scum to frame and have Axle lynched in LyLo.

and I note you have stated intent before getting a vote or commitment from Massive, which is incompatible with this intent

Let's make this clear:

WE ARE USING ALL OUR TIME TODAY

which was something you seemed fairly adamant about earlier.

[Ircher]

I'm not suddenly against no lynch, PK said it is a bad idea.

Axle is hard to get a good grasp on, Massive barely posts, you I have a mild townread and PK I have a mild townread on, so my choice is Axle or Massive, pick your poison.

[Ircher]

Well, my gist as far as the Axle nk is that Axle is prob. the best player still alive right now. While he isn't always right,

he does good job of looking town and always makes supported reads

. In other words, it would be very difficult, though not impossible, for scum to frame and have Axle lynched in LyLo.

Which as I read it amounts to quite significant amount of confidence I am town.
and according to you wouldn't get mislynched in LYLO.

and yet...

Hmmm.... Ok, I

made up my mind

:

Intent to hammer Axle in ~15 hrs (Idk, between 11 and 1 EST)

@Axle
Final comments?

So yes indeed

Now, why?

made up your mind

about what?
for what reasons?

Is this for instance the reason you have stated intent to lynch me?

Well, my gist as far as the Axle nk is that Axle is prob. the best player still alive right now. While he isn't always right,

he does good job of looking town and always makes supported reads

. In other words, it would be very difficult, though not impossible, for scum to frame and have Axle lynched in LyLo.

and I note you have stated intent before getting a vote or commitment from Massive, which is incompatible with this intent

Let's make this clear:

WE ARE USING ALL OUR TIME TODAY

which was something you seemed fairly adamant about earlier.

DISCLAIMER: Means up to 36 hrs before deadline.

[Ircher]

No, its cuz its you or Massive

[Heat]

ircher what r ur thoughts on jorts

[AxleGreaser]

EBWOP: if it was unclear that quoted heat but was at ircher.

I would love the fuck out of that.... because if you are town and i get lynched then
I ruuuuuuuuuly would like to be able to recommend PK, but currently I just can't.

(AKA If he(ircher) is town.... he should play and stuff... and show me.)

[AxleGreaser]

and I note you have stated intent before getting a vote or commitment from Massive, which is incompatible with this intent

Let's make this clear:

WE ARE USING ALL OUR TIME TODAY

which was something you seemed fairly adamant about earlier.

DISCLAIMER: Means up to 36 hrs before deadline.

Yep so if the game was about following recipes (playing scum would be easy) that would make sense you have not done anything quite outside that simplistic rule.

However as pointed out above although you fall within the literal meaning of your clarified 36 HR rule.

It is seemingly incompatible with its town aligned intent. As was explained here.

and I note you have stated intent before getting a vote or commitment from Massive, which is incompatible with this intent

As town curious about both my and Massives alignment you would/should have wanted to waited for his input.

You have not addressed or explained why you were not interested in waiting for Massives input at all.
Please do so?

[AxleGreaser]

@Thread A number of posts perhaps interspersed with the others will contain the statement
LWT (last will and testament) and then have spoilers. Pls dont read them. Today. (or even tomorrow if I happen to be alive and the game continuing as we mislynched someone other than me today)
If you do read them today dont come whining to me about how they do this or that, their intent is to read IN THE CONTEXT of me being flipped dead townie and you getting to know unequivocally what i thought.

LWT

Spoiler: Heats reasons (read >>>>if<<<< I have flipped) not relevant today

Heat has actually posted again the reasons in the thread 2202 that he would be prepared to lynch me.
A minor feel reads is that scum!heat would have been tempted to sheep PKs approach of just scum reading with basically no actual reasons at all. OR would in making the read make other mistakes, he didnt do those.
Why am i adding minor town leans for Heat?
because apart from the belief that scum bad enough to flip off PK as they did (and if heat is scum it was off PK onto ALSO low hanging fruit (playing scummily) Ircher, is good enough that they wont have fsked up and listed both buddies as bare town reads. And yeah its convincing but as stated, I believe its bad idea too put to much stock in any one piece of evidence, as players do fsck up as all alignments.
(So no I disagree with what I understand Pk position to be, that heat is now *certainly* town, and certainly not on the basis of one fact.
Anyway, Heats reasons for being on my wagon still dont feel like scum ones.

A bit that is relevant

This question is bit obvious? self evident.

Axle: why, in your opinion, does a UTL scumflip cause you to townread me?

but hey you asked

because apart from the belief that scum bad enough to flip off PK as they did (

Spoiler:

and if heat is scum it was off PK onto ALSO low hanging fruit (playing scummily) Ircher

, is good enough that they wont have *fsked up* and listed both buddies as bare town reads. And yeah it is convincing but as stated (even raw noobs tend not to do that), I believe it is a bad idea too put to much stock in any one piece of evidence, as players do *fsck up* as all alignments.
(So no I disagree with what I understand Pk position to be, that heat is now *certainly* town, and certainly not on the basis of one fact.

Reason in mafia 101 speak?
Rask read, UTL and heat as bare town reads.
Scum have not insignificant tendency to do that to one and only one of their buddies not both.
Scum as general simple rule don't cluster their buddies, when voting wagons, when giving reads, ... dont cluster.

Spoiler: weak scum

Eg #1 Scum not clustering their scum reads.
Give "similar" strength Scum read to a group, merely name your buddy,

but

give substantive sheepable reason for the town in the group.
Eg #2 Scum not clustering their town reads. (relevant here: AKA this example is like what happened in this game)
Weak scum: bare town read your buddy and some real towny. (oops/the weak bit) When challenged actually explain your buddies praiseworthy posts. (AKA what happened)

Stuff that didn't happen, but might next time.
Weakest scum: bare town read your buddy and some real towny. (oops/the weak bit) When challenged actually explain the real towny because duh, they are town. Continue to ignore your buddy, (what would have happened if Heat had been scum)

Weird weakest scum: bare town read Both your buddies... (wtf! why did you forget which game you were posting in and who your buddies were?) (Shit happens)(really... it does)
When challenged... explain one read on one buddy but not the other. That would be compelling, but int he WTF world where it happens, Rask would have had trouble defending heat because he didn't have any reason for the read.

Proof that Shit happens... Ircher as any alignment made these posts 2134 2193

Id also have to go dig, but i am pretty very sure, that read was before the GR flip.
I had some thought i might die after the GR flip but before yours. I will also have believed I had possible preflip associatives with you and GR.
I also had a different interpretation of anti preflip associatives with GR, but i needed to see the GR lynch play out more, before I decided if that a was a scum GR laying false trail or covering a fsck up.
Turned out it was town GR. <blush>

So yeah parts of my read on you have gone away.

As stated before, I fully expected town to ignore the fuck out of me if UTL flipped town before you but after I was dead. The statement was the best statement i could make to have the effect on the game I thought best, if I was dead at the time.
It did allow for multiple possible (at that time futures) AKA UTL has flipped scum before you or not.

Another interesting place for you to ask questions... would be about the certainty i expressed about UTL flipping town, during my tiff with RC after boon had hammered.

or you could look at that and think well if he thought UTL was that likely town and the read from the Rask post was either or {UTL/Heat} then obviously he was damn sure Heat was scum.
Be aware that during the tiff with RC I probably over egged my confidence in the UTL town flip.

I can probably work out and explain why (doing so was an instinct/intuition choice not of alignment, but of how i wanted the social interaction to go),
I think it was that if
town UTL had just got flipped and i died, there was till lots of room to fsk up the game, so I needed clear unequivocal statements from me in the game.
scum UTL got flipped, and I died then i would just get ignored or at least taken in a new context.

[massive]

There was never any danger of me hammering Axle, so I can't imagine why Ircher even brought it up.

As noted, leaving this here.

VOTE: Ircher

Will check back in the morning on my way out.

[AxleGreaser]

EBWOP

oops

.

As stated before, I fully expected town to ignore the fuck out of me if UTL flipped

town

scum

before you but after I was dead.

[AxleGreaser]

VOTE: Ircher

I know everybody can count but that is

L-1 on Ircher

[AxleGreaser]

How good is Irchers current read on massive if he(Ircher) is town?
Not very.

There was never any danger of me hammering Axle, so I can't imagine why Ircher even brought it up.

(which refers i believe to this.)

I request that Massive does not hammer beforehand.

Ircher Self assessment

I'm not suddenly against no lynch, PK said it is a bad idea.

Axle is hard to get a good grasp on, Massive

barely posts

, you I have a mild townread and PK I have a mild townread on, so my choice is Axle or Massive, pick your poison.

Which for me makes this an even more interesting and alignment indicative question

As town curious about both my and Massives alignment you would/should have wanted to waited for his input.

You have not addressed or explained why you were not interested in waiting for Massives input at all.
Please do so?

The observation/problem that he barely posts contraindicates, you as town not waiting for Massives input, but simply effectively deciding "Yep: less than 36hrs were good to go".

[AxleGreaser]

EBWOP

clarity

LWT

Spoiler: Heats reasons (read >>>>if<<<< I have flipped) not relevant today

Heat has actually posted again the reasons in the thread 2202 that he would be prepared to lynch me.
A minor feel reads is that scum!heat would have been tempted to sheep PKs approach of just scum reading with basically no actual reasons at all. OR would in making the read make other mistakes, he didn't do those.
Why am i adding minor

point that

town leans for Heat?
because apart from the belief that scum

Rask

bad enough to flip off PK as they did (and if heat is scum it was off PK onto ALSO low hanging fruit (playing scummily) Ircher, is good

scumRask

enough that they wont have also fsked up and listed both buddies as bare town reads. And yeah its convincing

that they would not

but as stated, I believe its bad idea too put to much stock in any one piece of evidence, as players do fsck up as all alignments.
(So no I disagree with what I understand Pk position to be, that heat is now *certainly* town, and certainly not on the basis of one fact.
Anyway, Heats reasons for being on my wagon still dont feel like scum ones.

AKA it is an observation that town leans not the whole read that does, but yeah I am pretty sure at the end of my posting the conclusion would by that as choice just between heat and PK its Pk as the more plausible scum. His push on Massive and Myself would then give him enough mislynches to win as scum. They don't read as genuine reads of likely to flip scum as they lack reasons. There is also the problem of his unwillingness to answer several highly relevant questions if these are indeed his scum reads.

[AxleGreaser]

Axles:

LWT

Spoiler: truth

This post intent is not about alignment just truth. I expect that truth may well help determine alignment more accurately. But i am not sure how this bit will if it does participate in that.
Massive said this:

Boon was already practically conftown for hammering UTL in the way he did (since he knew not only that RC was lying about his result, but also lying about being the Friendly Neighbor).

Boon did look quite towny in the related sense to Pk flipping into UTL. In the case of PK there exist the arguement he knew with how he did it he would not be sheeped onto UTL.
>>>> THERE exist <<<<< in my head town reason a hypothetical PK who was town could do that. If I am alive tomorrow you can ask. Today it is my best judgment stating those is against my town wincon.
I think I am going to for today include also "why I think that" in being against town win con. It is however consistent with *quite a few* other things I said today. So like duh.
Boon hammer looked townier than PK's flip onto UTL because it went to an actual hammer and flipped scum. It was in no sense certain the lynch on UTL was going through as i was hammering on RC pretty hard. So given the flip, Boon hammering then as scum seems exceedingly sketchy. So yeah maybe "practically conftown".

However describing that RC was lying about the friendly neighbor is straight up wrong.

History of Boons FN claim. (which becomes clear in hindsight.)

Boon:
hard top town read PK d1, friended him N1.
then top town read Droog, friended him N2.
RC replaced in. 1344 happened
1347 and while the friendly neighbor could say that to the person they friended, it make so much more sense the other way around. Espceially when you include 1364
During the day Boon basically breadcrumbed his actions in plain sight... AKA: Discussed them. 1409 and more.

In 1732 Boon sets up for the lie he is going to tell.
In 1741 Boon tells the lie
This is RC agreeing with confirmed town boons 1760 lie. (not RC lying for themselves)

BTW IMO RC's Town RB is the more useful role than FN, if UTL is scum as RC and boon thinks likely will flip scum. As with 1 scum left RB is reasonably quite investigative.
But yeah RC went along with it, thus painting an nk target on their own back. Not sure there was an other way out that wasn't worse at that point.

So yeah id reallllllly prefer less/fewer huge look at MEEEEEEE! flash in pan go big or go home plays, and more ones that milked the power of FN and RB for all they can be, by living longer.
But nope... Red check!!!!, L-1 hammer, oops I'd better claim plays are seemingly the order of the day.

@Boon

. yeah I know what you did.

[AxleGreaser]

Axles:

LWT

Spoiler: Pisskop

Rask, Pisskop and Ircher

This post 395 nails the problem with the post where Rask flips off PK 131, to a tree.
If you then peer closely at it.

#1

It would feel a bit funny (wrong) if Rask flipped off Town PK onto town Ircher (who is low hanging fruit town) whereas Pisskop was at the time playing obviously scummily town. (self voting is a bad look)
(as is 100 112(self aware) 127(And the point in letting your supposed team mates tie themselves in knots is?) 128 (ah that would be it just for the FU value)
129 Ewww.
So yeah not that(on PK) is not that bad a place to have a vote if PK is town and so is Ircher.

#2

It is parsimonious for scum Rask to be flipping off Town PK(a mislynch) onto bussing scumbuddy(Ircher) an alarm bell ringing partner. As it would then go partway to also explaining error of having too much conviction, as he knew the move would flip scum.

#3

It is also possible, for scum Rask to be flipping off scum Buddy PK, who Rask had been believing was the more experienced partner and would lead them to victory, but finding them in apparent trouble could perhaps be alarming. Rask doesn't mind being flashy 189 so while worse than #2 it does partly explain the excess conviction of 131.

#2

I consider most likely then

#3

then

#1

.

Err this next bits just a LOL, <<< for the humor impared

LOL. I shoulda picked up on it earlier
<Rasks Avatar at the writing of this post. (is of a vampire cat about to pounce)>
This cat is definitely evil, you can tell for this one as it is even evil shaped. Its eyes are too close together and its teeth are too far apart.

Anyways, PK and my town read of him.
288 Does exactly what it does. It itself is not a town read or really the basis of one,
it is an explanation of previous behaviors seen from town Pisskop that scum Pisskop will clearly be aware of. 127 Says as much. It does deflate the BS scum reads of him though.

Egads i am a verbose bugger. (thsi was hard to find)

The outsiders list does not quite show my personal views, I mollified the outsiders list towards thread sentiment.
I am pretty close to bet the farm on my pisskop and Massive town reads.<details not included here>

So what are the details.
Well at least a sgnificant part of My Pisskop read, was there did not appear to be sufficient space for him to get enough mislynches and win.

At post 630 i was a little tilted.
653 mainly does nothing (as 656 concludes) but as part of a body of work, page 26 and 27 seems to me like a bad idea as scum PK.
The thread could have become a pile of crap and now it didn't. Id comment on Pk natural habitat.. but that would be rude so I will quote it instead

youre not goign to be able to out shitpost a shitposter

However saving your powder until endgame when with TMI you can look like legend.

Fucking retards. Like you guiz cant recognize town from scum

This certainty has never ever been explained.

If you find yourself at LYLO with him id make sure he explains. As then his choice will be if town explain or lose.

There is lot more stuff he can explain while he is at it. What his actual read on me or Massive is. How he refutes what i said about what he said so far being bogus. Why he did not engage and discuss the read or its reasoning with me. If he had convinced me of his read i could be voting massive with him. Why he wants it to be about dick waving 2090.

You cant outshit a shitposter, axle. When I let out bait, you walked right into it.

What this is and why it smells like scum who baited a trap for a townie. He scum reads me because I town read massive and wont lynch him. I have reasons for my read, because i am town and had to figure it out. PKs unexplained sudden and very strong town read on Performer and scum read on UTL is by comparison scuzzy as fuck.


Which is where my town read came unstuck.

When did pisskops lates flurry of activity begin?
Well if you are reading this I am both dead and flipped town so you know the suggestion here 2053 is BS.
and 2061 is to this dead flipped towny a serious contender for why a scum PK, would want to lynch one of us and shoot the other.

NOTE

There exist town explanations that might or might not be good actual play that explain what has happened.
He however has provided no strong reason for me to believe those are true.

There are things i can go through PKs filter and say that looks towny, I am pretty sure that is often the case in his scum games too.
The above is the stuff i don't want not said if I happen to be dead at the time.

It strikes the right balance, and then if there is tomorrow with Pk alive and me dead, we will see how it plays out with this as a dead flipped townies LWT.
Enjoy.
Cold dead hand.