Open 624 Fire and Ice - Fire Mafia Wins

Aristophanes · Post Post #1025 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2016 4:42 am

In post 1024, texcat wrote:
Votecount remains the same; deadline remains the same; no one appears to be in prod range. But I'm still around if you happen to need me. : )

Thanks for the diligence!

This is part of my push for today. I'll see what I can do.

ISO · Post Post #1026 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:11 pm

I've reread all of day 1 so far, and I came across this which happened in twilight.

In post 525, Cobalting wrote:
Something_Smart wrote:The shadow lynch feels like a compromise lynch.
Eh, screw it. I'm taking you out of my preferred lynch pool. Who needs to go in replacing you, I don't know, but I wouldn't feel comfortable lynching you. This is true. Shadow is, very much, a compromise lynch, guaranteed to hit town.

Viva La Gloria wrote:Whatever. I'll settle for a Shadow lynch.
VOTE: Shadow
I'm tired.
This is, by
far
, the worst vote in the entire game.

VOTE: Viva La Gloria.

Given that Aristo was a townread of Cobalting's all day and Viva was a scumread, I am confident atm in lynching Viva today. I will continue to read and post my full thoughts when I'm done.

Shinobi · Post Post #1027 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2016 6:41 pm

In post 1021, Firebringer wrote:I should do a ISO of everyoen to figure this out.
Ill be back tomorrow with a least one player looked at.

dot dot dot

Viva La Gloria · Post Post #1028 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2016 9:08 pm

1) we've fully established that Ranger cannot read me. She's misread me fairly consistently as both alignments.
2) shush. I'm figuring this out.

ISO · Post Post #1029 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 12:36 am

I'm not saying we should trust Ranger's reads (though she is a good player)
I'm saying scum-Ari would have kept her alive, whereas scum-you would have wanted to get rid of her.

Firebringer · Post Post #1030 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:19 am

In post 1027, Shinobi wrote:dot dot dot

Yeah well.....
I didn't do it cause I am lazy.

SUE ME!

Shinobi · Post Post #1031 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:20 am

In post 1030, Firebringer wrote:
In post 1027, Shinobi wrote:dot dot dot

Yeah well.....
I didn't do it cause I am lazy.

SUE ME!

Then un-lazy yourself and do it.

Firebringer · Post Post #1032 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:26 am

In post 1031, Shinobi wrote:Then un-lazy yourself and do it.

Wheres your latest ISO!?!?!?!?

Firebringer · Post Post #1033 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:31 am

In post 945, Viva La Gloria wrote:Lynching you would be optimal if I were scum because I'm fairly sure you're town now and regardless of which scum faction I would be on the other scum would be highly unlikely to shoot me.
I would have no difficulty reviving my Firebringer!Fire theory and creating false justification for it to lynch you if that's what I wanted to do without anyone batting an eyelash.
Help me lynch scum and you won't have to worry about my alignment. easy!

I went back through the ISO of VIva and read this. Now it seems like normal RC kind of just being arrogant but it actually makes me think he says this stuff for people to also town read him.

Not to mention he did switch his reads up, and I think he thought it would be easier to manipulate me. With what we have...I am not crossing him off scum list yet.

Aristophanes · Post Post #1034 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:42 am

UPDATED COLOURED VCs

All names were retroactively switched to their most current replacement's name for ease of reading a slot's progression.

Spoiler: D1 VCs, Coloured

Of course as I fill this in I notice that the latter half of D1, from VC 1.9 on, all wagons are on Conftown but Shinobi's...

Spoiler: D2 VCs, Coloured

Spoiler: VCs D3, Coloured

Shinobi · Post Post #1035 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 6:23 pm

Shinobi · Post Post #1036 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 6:24 pm

In post 1033, Firebringer wrote:
In post 945, Viva La Gloria wrote:Lynching you would be optimal if I were scum because I'm fairly sure you're town now and regardless of which scum faction I would be on the other scum would be highly unlikely to shoot me.
I would have no difficulty reviving my Firebringer!Fire theory and creating false justification for it to lynch you if that's what I wanted to do without anyone batting an eyelash.
Help me lynch scum and you won't have to worry about my alignment. easy!

I went back through the ISO of VIva and read this. Now it seems like normal RC kind of just being arrogant but it actually makes me think he says this stuff for people to also town read him.

Not to mention he did switch his reads up, and I think he thought it would be easier to manipulate me. With what we have...I am not crossing him off scum list yet.

Aimed at both Fire and Aristo.

Aristophanes · Post Post #1037 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 6:36 pm

In post 1035, Shinobi wrote:And?

And now I must analyse it.
It is easier for me to sort when in the thread, and allows others access to it.

Shinobi · Post Post #1038 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:07 pm

Shinobi · Post Post #1039 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 8:08 pm

Okay, I expect something soonish.

Viva La Gloria · Post Post #1040 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2016 10:04 pm

If I haven't made a major content post by tomorrow I'll replace out.

You guys deserve better from me.

ISO · Post Post #1041 (ISO) » Sat Mar 05, 2016 12:43 pm

I reread Viva's ISO.

Spoiler: Viva

In post 46, Viva La Gloria wrote:A Shinobi wagon is a place that you want to be.

Your vote will help you get there.

I have a bit of experience with RC and this feels like a thing scum-him would do. RC usually tries to act super confident in his reads as scum. That combined with how he has switched his read on Shinobi multiple times does not feel genuine.

In post 48, Viva La Gloria wrote:
In post 47, Something_Smart wrote:I find it weird how Shinobi comes in with an RVS vote, followed by bashing everyone's RVS votes, followed by another RVS vote.
I can understand trying to get out of RVS early, but that wasn't what he was doing. But I think it would be unusual for scum to call attention to themselves that early.
I also find it weird how Viva meta'd Shinobi right away and spit back his profile information. I think this is more likely to be scum than Shinobi, seeing as it's an early push for a reason that seems NAI to me.

So you agree that Shinobi's entrance was weird.
You think that my making the effort to meta him to discover whether said opening is scummy though?
Plus, why would an early push for ANY reason be scummy? And how is Shinobi's hypocritical and bizarre calling people out for rvsing and asking for scumreads on the first page of the game not alignment indicative? That's bologna.

Again, overconfidence in a read 2 pages in.

In post 84, Viva La Gloria wrote:Yeah, Masquerade's response was pretty awful.
But I'm still pretty damn sure Shinobi is scum.
You guys can be different scumteams mmk?

VOTE: Masquerade

This is just bad. For someone expressing a super strong read on Shinobi, he switches awfully quickly based just on one post. The "different scumteams" feels like an afterthought to dissuade accusations of inconsistency.

In post 99, Viva La Gloria wrote:VOTE: Masquerade

Shinobi will be useful regardless of alignment I feel, and is highly likely to be crosskilled if he's scum.
I'd be seriously mad if he is left alive to LyLo but I still like this wagon and am good following it.

This is a scum mindset.

In post 130, Viva La Gloria wrote:
In post 128, Masquerade wrote:
For everyone who missed my explanation of my scumread on Shinobi please reread here:

In post 123, Masquerade wrote:
It's not the way he entered but how he dealt with the questions that he got about it. To me it seems more like he wanted to look useful with his questions, rather than reaction testing. Trying to look town by getting us out ofo RVS asap. When he got called out on that his responses were awkward imo.

Avoid being suspected by looking useful getting us out of RVS quickly. I'm saying Shinobi wanted to gain some towncred trying to launch us out of RVS. When he got questioned about them instead of backed up, he panicked and got awkward.

I sometimes choose my words a little poorly, but what I was saying is that by gaining towncred of getting us out of RVS he would have (most likely) avoided suspicion at least for this phase.

I still do agree and I think that you're probably town and Shinobi scum, but I feel like Shinobi can be left alive for a while because he's actively participating in scumhunting.
My opinion is that correct play in multiball is to go for the players who are both likely to be scum and unlikely to be cross killed; Shinobi doesn't exactly fit what I'm looking for in a day 1 lynch.
I think Cobalting needs to be forced to explain their reads lists right now.

Also a scum mindset. And the switch on Masquerade is questionable.

In post 342, Viva La Gloria wrote:Please can we do like SO or Cobalting?
I'm willing to vote either of them over Shinobi today.
I'm getting really bad feelings about this wagon and think that Shinobi's probably town now.
His frustration seems genuine, the way he reacted to me pressuring him felt really genuine, he never tried to omgus me when I looked like a doable lynch and I was deathtunneling him at the beginning of the day.
Please reconsider your votes.

After all that tunneling, RC switches his read because Shinobi felt "genuine". This again feels like him being super confident to appear town.

In post 488, Viva La Gloria wrote:Whatever. I'll settle for a Shadow lynch.

VOTE: Shadow

I'm tired.

This needs no words.

In post 602, Viva La Gloria wrote:@Ika
I'm not sure. I just think it's weird.
SO is an obvious scumfuck and the Cobalting kill proves it so bye.

I guess it was too tempting to blame your own kill on another player. In fact the Cobalting kill points more to the people who were scumreading them than the ones they were scumreading... like Viva.

In post 677, Viva La Gloria wrote:Like the associatives between SO and Shinobi are perfect for scumpartners but I really can't shake the feeling I've had all game that he's town.

Let's just lynch for Fire and I'll let the night actions handle him.

We can't trust the scum to kill the people we want. The only ones who can are scum.

In post 715, Viva La Gloria wrote:So the Silverwolf kill was likely a deliberate attempt to cross kill, since she didn't have any clear scumreads besides Shinobi / Fire, which means that last Ice is probably someone who was scumreading her.
(And Shinobi/Fire fit in that category as well.)
I'm going to go through some ISOs.

So much discussing of night kills... probably means he was thinking about them a lot.

In post 726, Viva La Gloria wrote:Alright.
So I think that it's pretty obvious that the Fire kill N2 was made to protect Silverwolf.
Cobalting is a little iffier to pinpoint because none of Ranger's scumreads were Fire scum and the only one that was correct was SO who was ice.
So we don't really get anything from NKA.

Aristophanes:
likely ice, extremely unlikely fire:
I think that Aristophanes is one of my top scum picks for Ice here and I'm questioning why a lot of people are townreading him. I absolutely hate the way he conducted himself day 1; I feel like in particular he's been doing way too much IIOA and way too little scumhunting. He spent an entire post picking apart why me 'vote jumping' was scummy and bad instead of actually scumhunting. His reads, especially on me, have basically followed crowd mentality; he was townreading me in the early day, moved to scumreading me when the pack did, and then started townreading me again when everyone else did again. I really don't think that he's fire though; when the SO wagon was getting steam he tried to derail it and said that we should be dealing with the Ika/SW situation instead. That just seems ridiculously unlikely to come from Fire scum given that Ika was virtually unlynchable and fairly universally townread. He makes a lot more sense as Ice; he did L-1 SO but the wagon was inevitable at that point and I could easily see him as a bussing scumbuddy who felt that he couldn't stop it.

Shinobi:
Possible ice, extremely unlikely fire:
So he was one of my big scumreads early because of his . I think he's fairly clearly not partnered with SW given that SW spent half the game trying to lynch him, and I don't think that a bus would be particularly likely to that extent in a multiball setup. He could absolutely be Ice;

SnarkySnowman:
Possible ice, very likely fire:

Masquerade:
Fairly likely ice, fairly likely fire:

Firebringer:
Unlikely ice, unlikely fire:

Something_Smart:

Oh shut the fuck up cancel all this.

VOTE: Shinobi

TheShadow: Scum - doesn't show up when his top lynch is at L-1. His top scumread is one that is completely unexplained. Obvious scum, should be lynched ASAP. Calling him a lurker and letting him slide is just bad.

Cobalt: Also scum - doesn't explain their reads under any circumstances, instead relying on generic lines like "they sound worse with every post - they look like scum scumhunting, not town scumhunting," without having any way to back up their statements. Relied on calling my slot a "policy lynch" without explaining why. It's bullshit but apparently everyone is okay with that because lolmeta.

Aeronaut: My third pick for scum - has been on site and posting elsewhere in yet doesn't care enough to show up despite the fact that the day is at an end and he isn't nearly caught up enough to make an informed decision. His only catchup post was centered on smearing scum on obvious things like people responding to questions and centering his scumreads on them being scum rather than the reasoning as to why they actually are. I think I confused him with beeboy earlier but I don't know what that says about beeboy.

Beeboy: null - has been posting but I can't really remember them having much impact on anything. He just sorta jumped on my bandwagon at the last second for...Reacting to something? His logic didn't really hold up since

Ika: town and someone I hope I never play with again. iirc he tends to be kind of spacey in regards to early game and tends to just hammer people whenever regardless of his alignment. It's annoying having him show up to play with me just so he can muck about and do nothing while I get lynched.

Silverwolf: null - I have no idea where to start here. I flip my read on her every 10 minutes. I'm fully aware my bias against people who tunnel me could be coloring my read but I genuinely have no idea.

Masq: probably town - I hated his early jump and am genuinely angry about it, but at least he's giving me some time to do stuff before he inevitably hammers me for what the fuck ever.

Something_Smart: possibly town? He's irrational and impossible to deal with but I can sort of see his posts coming from town, despite how misguided he is.

Aristo: possibly town? He said a bunch of stuff I liked earlier but he's nowhere to be found. I feel like he should be more interested than he is but it's plausible that he's just mia.

SnarkySnowman: probably town - I don't see a reason for scum to stick up for me here? But I'd really like to see his reasoning on why he likes me enough to start being vocal about disliking my wagon considering it's the only thing that defines him in this game thus far.

VLG: probably town - I thought his earlier push was hard to mimic for scum considering how much force he put behind it. Again, I see little reason for scum to call attention to themselves by proposing a variety of lynches and then trying to back me at EoD.

This is ice. The ONLY person he forgot on his reads list was the other Ice dude.

Explaining the Fire kill. And switching his read on Shinobi again, for a questionable reason.

In post 789, Viva La Gloria wrote:I feel like I never want to play multiball again.

Trying to keep track of two factions is killing me.

It hasn't been all that hard for me. Seems like it would be a lot harder if you were part of one of them.

In post 805, Viva La Gloria wrote:Your reads are fake as shit, your push on me is awful, you had to retract your entire readslist when I called you out on it, and there's no visible thought process that leads to your asinine conclusions.

If you're not scum then you're a fairly awful player.

Ad hominem is bad, and scum tend to attack players but say "if you're town" a lot.

In post 810, Viva La Gloria wrote:
In post 806, SnarkySnowman wrote:Well, maybe wait and see what others say. Tell me why you're not scum, other than because I'm "a fairly awful player".

I'm not getting lynched. You might though!
You've given no reasons to scumread me and the people who are actually scumhunting are fairly universally townreading me.
No one thinks that I'm likely to be Ice in particular, and thinking that I'm more likely to be Ice than, say, Aristo makes absolutely no sense.
I don't even have a case to answer to try to get us on the same page because you frankly haven't made a case. You just declared me scum with no reasoning.
Like I'm pretty fine lynching you at this point. If you're town then you me an asston of explanation.

Again, the annoying overconfidence.

In post 927, Viva La Gloria wrote:Alright so fire is definitely one of

{S_S, Masq} but more likely S_S.

Ice is

{Aristo, Masq, maybe Shin}

The way S_S assumed that SS was town when he said scummy shit strikes me as scum knowing that he wasn't fire and trying to lynch the other faction here (ice) which makes me think that he's scum over Masq, plus the fact that he's just been generally scummier in general and the fact that Masq legitimately does not discuss SW at any point seems unlikely from scumpartners because I'd think they'd at least -try- to distance at some point, so the minimal contact between S_S and SW is more likely to be scum.

Aristo is still my biggest pick for ice for the reasons I've already explained but Masq also makes a ton of sense as ice.

This is really what makes me dislike Viva's play today. He would have no reason to reconsider his read on me (indeed I would be his only candidate), except that it is suicide for him because he is scum.
Also, switching on Shinobi again.

So yeah, I'm ok lynching Viva today.
I will also reread Fire's slot at some point, but I think we should lynch him tomorrow unconditionally.

Viva La Gloria · Post Post #1042 (ISO) » Sat Mar 05, 2016 6:58 pm

VOTE: SS

We're doing this 1v1 today actually, but not for the reasons you guys will think.
I think that SS is actually Ice and not Fire. Aristophanes is the fire.
But, I don't think that I can muster the votes to lynch after today.
So, we're lynching him today.

I might be wrong and he might just be fire and this whole thing could be a waste of time, but this is where my head's at right now.

Viva La Gloria · Post Post #1043 (ISO) » Sat Mar 05, 2016 6:59 pm

The other good option is that we can NL.
Hopefully at least one scum will follow my reads and a flip will help us with the next lynch.
It's better than the alternative at this point I think.

Shinobi · Post Post #1044 (ISO) » Sat Mar 05, 2016 7:46 pm

In post 1042, Viva La Gloria wrote:VOTE: SS

We're doing this 1v1 today actually, but not for the reasons you guys will think.
I think that SS is actually Ice and not Fire. Aristophanes is the fire.
But, I don't think that I can muster the votes to lynch after today.
So, we're lynching him today.

I might be wrong and he might just be fire and this whole thing could be a waste of time, but this is where my head's at right now.

No.

ISO · Post Post #1045 (ISO) » Sun Mar 06, 2016 2:18 am

In post 1042, Viva La Gloria wrote:VOTE: SS

We're doing this 1v1 today actually, but not for the reasons you guys will think.
I think that SS is actually Ice and not Fire. Aristophanes is the fire.
But, I don't think that I can muster the votes to lynch after today.
So, we're lynching him today.

I might be wrong and he might just be fire and this whole thing could be a waste of time, but this is where my head's at right now.

This is... what even? Your saying I hard bussed my partner in multiball and Cobalting was killed by two people whom they were townreading and who were townreading them.
I'm totally okay with this 1v1. You've realized that it's suicidal not to enter it but you've already called me not Fire so you need to come up with any ridiculous reason to call me scum.

In post 1043, Viva La Gloria wrote:The other good option is that we can NL.
Hopefully at least one scum will follow my reads and a flip will help us with the next lynch.
It's better than the alternative at this point I think.

And this is incredibly scum motivated. I already mentioned in my analysis that directing the nightkill is scum indicative, because the only scum who will follow your reads is you.

Shinobi · Post Post #1046 (ISO) » Sun Mar 06, 2016 4:43 am

SS what exactly makes Aristo town outside of the fact that you think that both Viva and FB are scum? Or is that your only reason?

ISO · Post Post #1047 (ISO) » Sun Mar 06, 2016 8:22 am

My read on Aristo is partly PoE, partly gut, but after reading him it is weaker than I thought. His play seems very similar to in this game, where he was town and was scumread by half the players and considered obvtown by the other half. Most of the gut read is due to his efforts to advance the game and discover motivation, specifically his lack of interest in being townread.
Viva is almost definitely Fire after 1042 and 1043 (and the Cobalting kill makes absolutely no sense for a SW/Aristo team), but there is a possibility Aristo is Ice. Still leaning toward Fire on being Ice, due to his awful interactions with SO.

Spoiler: Aristo

In post 70, Aristophanes wrote:Viva, why are you townreading Something Smart?
Cobalt ing, why are you scum reading them?

Trying to advance the game, figure out motivation.

In post 116, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 98, beeboy wrote:
In post 97, Shinobi wrote:It sounds like masquerade's giant post follows the sort of thing you're talking about in yet you haven't commented on it. Why?

I don't know if you mean you on masquerade or masquerade on you.

For you on masquerade, I wouldn't call 2 votes and an opinion tunneling and making it easy on scum to fit in.

For masquerade on you, I don't see people voting you a problem the statement that you are trying to hard to look town is bad in the sense that there is no evidence to back that up which doesn't indicate scum just a lazy claim unless Masq can't follow up with evidence to support that claim. There is a difference between stealing ideas to fit in and having your own opinion on someone currently being pressured.
Beeboy/Masq scumteam? Cool!

VOTE: Beeboy

Viva, will you quit it with the vote jumping!
I already don't care where it lands because it has no weight.
You know how if you say a word too many times it starts to lose meaning? Yeah, that's what's happening with your vote.

I had a feeling Chevy Cobalt was Ford Ranger.
Unexplained lists =/= scum in this case.

In post 107, Viva La Gloria wrote:A slip up is a screw up or a blunder or a misplay; I think Shinobi misplayed on page 1 because he felt pressured as scum to try to look like he was scumhunting hard.
A slip is revealing some sort of secret that confirms alignment.

Shinobi did the former, not the latter.
Slip = Scum revealing info accidentally/revealing themselves as scum.
Slip-up = any general mistake, misfooting, or bad play.
@Something Smart, not a hard concept.
It feeld like you're discrediting Viva right now. Why is that?
A slip is a slip-up, but a slip-up isn't a slip.

Yeah, I don't like Beeboy at all.

@Beeboy,
Is bullheadedness exclusively a scum trait?
Can town not be wrong yet insist they are right, or misunderstand a point and argue it fruitlessly?

This is scumhunting and trying to advance the game as well.

In post 384, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 382, Shinobi wrote:I need to reread droog as well - I don't like that Aero post.
Really?
I liked it...

Also, Aero, I am awkward a lot.
Just sayin'

I like this. It's basically saying, "This is what I do and I don't care if you think it's scummy."

In post 618, Aristophanes wrote:I'll read SO's ISO, Viva, and get back to you. I haven't really interacted with the slot much.

This in particular seems really bold for someone to say about his partner. Given that he's almost certainly not Fire, this makes me think he is town.

In post 621, Aristophanes wrote:I know we have 10 days and I want to give Fire time to catch up, but I totally agree with this lynch on a reread.

All of their questions seem to be at the game rather than in the game. Which is weird I know, my explanations suck.

Aaand I got called in to work while typing. Basically, they feel off and unengaged and are probably scum.

VOTE: SO

This is L-1

This could be a bus. Of all the SO votes, this felt most like one at the time. But bussing in this setup seems pretty stupid, and I wonder if Aristo would have been this awkward if he were bussing (he probably would have put more effort into the post).

In post 690, Aristophanes wrote:
In post 689, Firebringer wrote:
In post 688, Aristophanes wrote:That's okay. They're probably the last Fire goon anyway.

Why do you think SS is fire goon anyways?
Looking again at the VCA (which I'll take some time and transcribe onto the forum soon. It's in a word document atm.) I noticed they avoided early major wagons, instead staying on Viva. That is, until they found L-1 on the Shinobi wagon. They then stayed there until the day ended, despite the wagon's crumbling. Her votes here are contrary to Silver for the most part.

D2 she follows SW onto So and stays there for the day.

Their ISO is almost devoid of any mentions of SW as well.

All of their votes are without much reasoning, and the insistence on voting Shinobi shows they weren't thinking critically, but sticking with their previous scum read. This stagnation happens because of faked scumreads and a fear of looking inconsistent.

This is good motivation searching. It's wrong, of course, but it's good that he pointed it out.

In post 966, Aristophanes wrote:Just noticed our timeline. We have intent, right?

Why am I being scum read btw?
I believe I've been fairly towny all game.

This may be just me, but I have to keep myself from saying things like this as town a lot. I get the feeling of "where on earth is that scumread on me coming from?" that's hard for scum to fake.

So, my reads are here:
Viva- Fire
Fire- probably Ice
Aristo- probably town, possibly Ice
Shinobi- likely town, maaaaybe Ice

texcat · Post Post #1048 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 3:47 am

Day 4, Vountcount 2

Viva La Gloria (1):

Something_Smart

Something_Smart (1):

Viva La Gloria

Not Voting (3):

Firebringer, Aristophanes, Shinobi

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Monday, March 14, 2016 9:00 am (Texas time)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-03-14 09:00:00)

Shinobi · Post Post #1049 (ISO) » Mon Mar 07, 2016 4:28 am

That seems a bit stronger than simply "gut," but sure.