Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[Almost50]

Hello, everyone. I'll be doing a quick read to catch up.

[Almost50]

OK. I'm all caught up. There are more irrelevant posts in this thread than there are actually relevant ones. If I disregard the posts that are irritating in an irrelevant-to-game way I'd say Persy is the one standing out as a slight scum lean.

However, I need to sort out RC first. I haven't had the pleasure of meeting Rasko before, so I would certainly appreciate it if you guys signed your posts for me to tell who's actually doing the post.

Very slight leans on most of the players isn't good either, so I'll try to think of some way to tell who's who when I wake up. For now I'll just unvote (since this was my predecessor's RS,V I believe.)

UNVOTE: UNVOTE

[Almost50]

Welcome 50. I owe you a not-lynching on D1. You replaced a scummy slot however, so you're going to need you to do something town.

*LOL*
You owe me nothing, mate. It's all cool. You played to your win condition on that game.

Now speaking of my slot, I don't really mind being the D1 lynch IF it should help the town win. However, I think it's a bit too early to walk down that path now.

Yours is a null slot for me too. I just thought I'd start with RC (the one I played more games with than anyone else on this play list), and I was -simultaneously- going to keep an eye on Persy (too bad he decided to leave the game).

I player with you twice before I think, but still have no clue on how to read you, and I'm not sure I have enough tells on either Titus or davesaz (one finished game with each).

TBH, I didn't like either of Kain or Eagle posts much, but then I didn't want to add oil to the flames, so I steered clear for my 1st post. I will be sure to revisit both slots later on.

One thing to note: The "would newbie scum do this?" doesn't fly with me. I've seen some total noobs (playing literally their very first game) misleading the whole town and actually winning the game single handedly. Anything that is speculating what a "new player" would do is not a valid argument in my book.

Now I want Sunset to add some more stuff. Most of my town leans are based on people posting "normal" stuff, but given that nobody has yet touched on anything solid that would be the case for either alignment.

Anyway, I don't particularly find Aneninen scummy, but I did find the vote/unvote in the same post a bit intriguing. I don't mind applying some pressure there, and especially so with me currently not voting, so..

VOTE: Aneninen

[Almost50]

He voted for me for a stupid reason like "he is not actually aggressive he is just telling us he is aggressive"

Which is true, tbh. Your play is least aggressive if aggressive is the word you want to call it. Yours is more OMGUSy, per se. (You seem to scum read those who scum read you, vote you or try to criticize your play). You cannot be both aggressive AND defensive. "Aggressive defensiveness" is a sign of nervousness usually associated to scum players.

[Almost50]

people can be wrong but it feels like he is lying just to come up with a reason to vote me

You don't get to call him lying unless you can prove he thought otherwise. Now, can you actually prove davesaz' thoughts contradict his stated reasoning for voting you?

[Almost50]

I like you and acryon for town but I haven't seen you seem to try to get anywhere

I would like more on this. WHY do you like Burning Crystal and/or acryon for town?
Also, when you're done catching up I would appreciate your thoughts on a couple other players (with short reasoning, if possible). I'll let you pick the said couple of players (bc I obviously don't know what you might see that I didn't and vise versa).

Suffice it to say I need more than "I like X for town & suspect Y to be scum".

[Almost50]

VOTE: Aneninen

For being a lying serial killer in the last game we played together.

I don't like this

VOTE: Mad King Ashnard

I bet everyone knows my reason for that.

I don't, what is it?

Or this. They both feel bad to me.

14

kuroi -2 +3 =8 -11 =12 -==14 =39 -51 =77 | =51 =64

Aneninen R -4 ==6 -7 | =11 -14

Smudger ==3 +9 -10 | +14

acryon -3 v4 u119 R =31 | =11 =14

Persivul +=2 -10 R +316

pisskop -1 ==2 -13

plotinus = +1 +7 +8 -11 =12 +13 -=14 -443 | -577 -581 v626 =648

radiantcowbells =3 -5 -11 ✝

What are these numbers
Whaaaa?
Are you trying to confuse us?

This is fear. Too many words for one thought. I only use this many words when I'm afraid someone will misunderstand me or take me wrong or for some other reason. This is definitely fear.

14

kuroi -2 +3 =8 -11 =12 -==14 =39 -51 =77 | =51 =64

Aneninen R -4 ==6 -7 | =11 -14

Smudger ==3 +9 -10 | +14

acryon -3 v4 u119 R =31 | =11 =14

Persivul +=2 -10 R +316

pisskop -1 ==2 -13

plotinus = +1 +7 +8 -11 =12 +13 -=14 -443 | -577 -581 v626 =648

radiantcowbells =3 -5 -11 ✝

Just because I have no face does not mean I am not trustworthy
You are unfair, it's not my fault I was born with no face
Dont be a jerkass

Also this. Too many words.

I know what y'all are talking about, impatience and such, but I know maybe better than y'all (I don't know a lot of people here) because I was this person before and this was my fearful scum opening play.

VOTE: Townie247

You throw out a naked vote, and it's for the person named

Townie

? Scum much?

VOTE: KainTrelpes

Let's get some wagons up in here. Major posturing by Kain in his last post.

~Titus

Yep.

Whatever!! At least I am trying to play the game while you are just trying to distract people and picking on new players ilyvmjty. being aggressive does NOT mean i am fake or bad

Also your sucking up to Titus is disgusting, happy to vote you

This is overreaction

I am VERY aggressive in TOS, and I will do so here too, because that is the only way to catch evil players off guard and lynch them quickly. Quietness is not good which is why I want people to move

Whatever!! At least I am trying to play the game while you are just trying to distract people and picking on new players ilyvmjty. being aggressive does NOT mean i am fake or bad

Also your sucking up to Titus is disgusting, happy to vote you

These two posts do swing in one of two ways.

1). These are townie posts. Because scum wouldn't really want the game to progress as quickly as he points out.

2). These are fake town posts in hoping to make out he has town intentions without any real hunting of any sort.

And stating that your happy to vote, why don't you vote for him? What's holding you back from doing so?

Yeah that was a bit of an overreaction, sorry.

Let's forget that and go here:

I don't like burnings reaction.

VOTE: Burning Crystal

This one is serious.

You simply can't suspect someone for over reacting, then do it yourself and say we should forget about it. That's a contradiction, in my opinion.

VOTE: Extrapolated Eagle

he's already voting me, why are you misrepping him? This post makes me feel a little better about kt.

.

Excuse me, but I thought you DID like acryon for town. The first 2 quoted posts here are by acryon and you state that you don't like either of them. I won't go into details about why you don't like these 2 posts, but I find it a direct contradiction to your liking acryon for town.

Not liking Kain is something I'm not willing to argue about, although I wouldn't say the quoted posts (with too many words) are a major reason to why I don't like him myself. The overreaction is more likely to get my approval, along with his "aggressive defensiveness".

Liking Titus for pushing wagons I can understand, so I won't be pushing you on that one for now.

Finally, you quoted a post from Kop stating it made you feel better about Kain, which makes you sound indecisive regarding Kain.

So, two question here (actually three, but two are the same question about 2 players): Where do you currently stand regarding Kain and/or acryon?? And how do you read Kop so far??

To be fair I should -at least- provide my own reads too, so I'll say that Burning Crystal is looking ok so far, but I know Titus is experienced enough, so I'd rather wait a little longer before I decide to trust that slot. The same goes for Mad King. I'm undecided on Kop too, bc while he has some good stuff he also has -at least- one thing that needs to wait for tomorrow to be revisited.

Actually almost half of my personal remarks on this game (in a text file on my PC) read more or less "#m Check this post later, or #n This post needs to be referenced in light of X flip (where m & n are post numbers & X is a player's name). In short I don't have even one "strong" town read thus far, nor do I have enough confidence in my scum reads either.

But thanks for trying to share your thoughts, my friend. It would be even nicer of you if you could respond to the underlined as well.

[Almost50]

acryon feels like TOWN to me,, I have no other bad ideas other than dave and persivul,, but after the post about persivul i am RETHINKING this idea!!

(Irrelevant multiple quotes removed). You're at it again. Please explain. WHY do you think acryon is town? You need to make a point (that I may have missed, or even may share so I'd feel more confident in my read on them). Stating "X feels like town" without an explanation doesn't help much.

[Almost50]

Ew. Walls.
Hi.
Bye.
Will post tomorrow.

I already don't like where this is going.

Me neither, tbh.

[Almost50]

Checking in, hows everyone doing?

Ill have important stuff soon, but there are a few things I need to address:

1. Burning Crystal, please provide more reads on people not named Eagle. In fact, pushing Eagle would be an improvement. Same goes for Mad King.

2. I do think Eagle is not a good lynch D1. I think this is a noobtown mislynch in the waiting and I will not touch it. I ask the rest of you to do the same. Good choices would be Burning Crystal or Persivul. (More info on this coming).

3. @Kain: Why are you here and why did you join mafiascum?

This was posted nearly 28 hours ago. I wonder what the term "soon" meant. Perhaps with some pressure they'd be more inclined to show up and contribute something?

VOTE: Sunset Illusions

[Almost50]

I didn't say I scum read them just yet. But if someone says they'll post "soon" then disappear for the next 30 hours it is suspicious and calls for a "prodding vote" in the least. If they do come and post it's a matter of the content in their posts that defines my read of them. If they do NOT respond to said prod they're likely to earn my scum read for lurking, and especially so when they've just replaced in. You don't replace in to lurk, do you?

[Almost50]

if it's an alt created specifically to play this game then flaking could indicate disappointment at a boring role, by a player who does not want to get a reputation for flaking (hence using an alt).

This phrasing sent me chasing my own tail around. How did a player know their role (thus using an alt) BEFORE they got their role PM (the alt must've been created before applying. No?)

[Almost50]

Also, how DO you guys embed images directly into the post?

[Almost50]

@Kuro: I'm going to be blunt and you're going to hate me for it, but voting Aneninen IS lazy as well. You see, both Aneninen & Sunset Illusions are the current leading wagons, so you need to tell us not only why vote the one you choose to, but also why not the other one.

[Almost50]

Sorry for lack of investment but this game's just not interesting me much at all

I'll force myself to take this seriously if I'm around for a few more day phases.

-Gurgurant

This is scummy as hell. So, you're not interested?? Why are you in it? And to "force yourself" to take it seriously IF you're around for "a few more days" suggests you wither know this is a single ball with no SK (thus one kill per night at most) which in turn makes you mafia bc there's no single town role that would give you that kind of info, but knowing yours and your partners' roles might. (2 goons + 1 RB = scenario 8, RB + Follower + Goon = scenarios 5/6, GF + BP + Goon = scenario 3)

Let me sit on this for a little while, but I'm likely to follow that up with a vote on you.

[Almost50]

@Titus:

I have a request. Could you please try to do a quick read of the thread and see if this could be a multi-ball with precisely KT+RC on one team and EE+Kop on the other one?

I know this contradicts my #431, but I've just remembered RC doesn't like reading up lots when he thinks he might get killed soon enough, so maybe I got it backwards ans what he really meant to say is he knows there to be another killing faction (which would most likely make him a WW)

[Almost50]

WHAT..

This is so absurdly specific. Why in the world are you drawing these absurd conclusions this early and then asking someone else to confirm them?

Instead of asking for an explanation you could do a reread yourself with my proposed scenario in ind and see if you could come up with something that makes it unlikely.

[Almost50]

Almost50 scum
Kop
Kurio not protown
Everybody else I just want to lynch just because only four players have had decent play this game and only three of those are likely town.

Well, alight. So you only have 3 town reads, and would like to lynch the rest. Yes?

Fine. I want to lynch kop. Or almost50.or kuribo I guess. One of those three.

Everyone else is p much conftown as far as I'm concerned.

Ez game ez lyfe.

OK, fine. So you... WHAT??? How does the highlighted phrase rhyme with the quote from 446?

[Almost50]

Checking in, hows everyone doing?

Ill have important stuff soon

, but there are a few things I need to address:

1. Burning Crystal, please provide more reads on people not named Eagle. In fact, pushing Eagle would be an improvement. Same goes for Mad King.

2. I do think Eagle is not a good lynch D1. I think this is a noobtown mislynch in the waiting and I will not touch it. I ask the rest of you to do the same. Good choices would be Burning Crystal or Persivul. (More info on this coming).

3. @Kain: Why are you here and why did you join mafiascum?

This was posted nearly 28 hours ago. I wonder what the term "soon" meant. Perhaps with some pressure they'd be more inclined to show up and contribute something?

VOTE: Sunset Illusions

@texcat: There's your answer. Need I say more? Now I might be persuaded to move on if you do provide something useful. However, leans (either way) with no reasoning idn't what I'm looking for. Help me see someone is likely clear, or convince me someone is likely to be guilty and I shall vote them instead. Or even, help me see YOU are clear and I will look elsewhere myself.

[Almost50]

Just so you stop messing around; I'm an X-shot PGO

[Almost50]

VOTE: Almost50

I KNEW you'd fall for THAT. There's NO PGO in ANY of the WW scenarios.

[Almost50]

Guys, I'm telling you .. Ashnard IS a WW

[Almost50]

Guys, I'm telling you .. Ashnard IS a WW

[Almost50]

OOOPS. Faulty internet connection. Apologies for the double post.

[Almost50]

OK, I double checked to verify the result. I'm convinced you ARE a WW, but also a 3 Mafia (GF + 2Goons) would know there's no PGO.
Either way:

VOTE: Mad King Ashnard

[Almost50]

Yes, I know it was terrible, but still .. town you would not have voted me so quickly. I mean, who votes a PGO except someone who wants them dead anyway?

[Almost50]

^@RC

[Almost50]

OK, how was that scummy? Walk me through this, please.

[Almost50]

Yes. I precisely picked my fake claim to be PGO to see how the Ashnard slot would react. If I said Compulsive Fruit Vendor or Vig for example also the SK would know it's fake, and I wanted to make sure my suspicions on that slot were spot on according to my theory.

[Almost50]

One person voted you, and you got spooked. You felt there was pressure and you cracked. You're freaking out under the pressure that doesn't exist. Your reaction was horrendous.

That's what you saw, but not what was going on. I don't care how many votes are/were on me. I saw RC online and decided to put my plan into action. That plan took me about an hour or so to come up with (I've pre-planned this claim earlier on the day). I don't freak out easily, my friend, but I can fake it to a purpose.

Btw, there are currently 3 votes on me, but I would rather 5 or 6 in order to get a better read on the game. Care to push for my lynch more please?? Just a little bit more. Thanks in advance.

[Almost50]

@Titus: I fake claimed PGO to trick Ashnard and they fell for it. I believe there are 2 teams (as I've explained before) judging by the way interactions have been going between each couple and the obvious hostilities between the two sides. They may or may have not realized they're actually targeting the other scum group, but still it looks like each pair is working together simultaneously from the other pair.

[Almost50]

@Titus: There's no such thing as "PGO fishing". The right play for a PGO is to outright claim (especially in an open setup) so the Town PRs won't trip on them by mistake, and especially so when they're scum read by -now- 3 players. It does reduce the scum killing targets from 10 to 9, but it gives our PRs a better chance to survive as well.

P.S. The claim right away bit is the "safer play" from the PGO age on the Wiki, so I'm not "inventing" it.

Quote: "The ideal play for a PGO is to get targeted by the Mafia, while not being targeted by any Town power roles. However,

safer play is to claim directly

-- this keeps other Town power roles safe, but also ensures the Mafia will not target you. Note that by claiming, you are opening yourself up to potentially being policy lynched at some point during the game."

[Almost50]

This is why we should restrict fake claims to scum. How are we supposed to sort out whether this is the worst fake claim ever from a townie or a scum claim? Did you consider that you were much more likely to catch a town pr than a werewolf with this claim?

OK. It looks like most of you don't know me well enough, so I did mess it up. But since this is the case there is nothing more I could do wrong, so here it is:

The ONLY PR that could've been outed here would be the PGO themselves. I'm a Weak Bodygaurd. We thus are in scenarios 5, 10 or 12. ALL 12 scenarios have Jailers and Cops, so these would not be outed by my false claim. Furthermore, I know we don't have a Tracker, a BulletProof or a Vig.

I considered claiming a Vig, a Fruit Vendor, a BP & a PGO (note that I didn't specify whether I'm 1 or 2 shots in my clain). This was to take the SK from the picture (SK would know 1-shot PGO doesn't exist but a 2-shot may do).

Now combine the knowledge I had with my chances of survival.

My chances of dying are: 4/12 (targeting a scum randomly) + 2*1/8 (my protected target being targeted for a night kill by either faction) + 2*1/9 (me being targeted for a night kill myself).= 70 % (actually 69.444 %).

So, do I go down silently or do I go down leaving "some" pointers?? I chose the latter. If I'm only 30.56% likely to see the next day I would rather leave you guys with some better knowledge about the setup and who the more likely suspects to flip scum are.

Now lynch away if you will. I've had it with people suspecting me just because I think differently. "More likely to come from scum" is a horrible reason all in and by itself, simply because scum do NOT want or need to (a) put themselves in the spot light, and (b) do as much speculation about the setup this early. The night kills will give them what they need to know.

[Almost50]

No.
And your math is flawed too.

When you try to look smarter, please provide examples.

1- I'm a Weak Bodyguad.
2- It follows that we are in setups #5, #10 or #12 (these are the 3 setups with my role in them).
3- ALL 12 setups have Cops & Jailers. A Cop or a Jailer would NOT CC me or even hint they know anything about the setup, bc they don't.
4- Scenario #5 does have a 1-shot PGO. No other PRs in that setup.
5- Scenarios #10 & #12 do NOT have additional PRs.

Now show me how another PR could've been outed based on my fake claim.

Also, if my math is flawed, you better show me you know better and have it done by the numbers. THANK YOU.

[Almost50]

OH! My bad then. I stand corrected. Lynch me.

[Almost50]

@Titus: OK, I'll accept that. I still doubt everybody feels that wat though, but whatever.

So, tell me.. is it better to go into the night unannounced, then IF I survive I come out to say whom I've protected (= confirmed town)?
Or do I announce my target beforehand, so the scum will either be forced to out one of their own or refrain from killing (or even target me) to create WIFOM about my target's alignment. (In this scenario they will be forced to either kill me if I'm t○7rgeting a townie or not to kill at all if I'm targeting one of them, thus no info provided but one townie lives for one more day).

Also,

@mod: Do we get flavoured kill results (i.e. gun = mafia, dismembered body = WW & knife = SK)?

[Almost50]

Not sure what all you are reviewing, but you can ISO me and ALL of my predecessors in about 30 seconds.

Mybe that IS the reason they're scum reading you?

[Almost50]

Good. I personally dislike flavor being indicative at all of the game.

Why? What's there to hate about flavoured kills being indicative of certain alignments existing in the game?

From my own PoV only scum would hate that. We get 2 kills and we still don't know if it's a Mafia+SK or Mafia+WWs (at least that's what the case would be for the majority of us). Hell, we get one kill and we assume scenario 5 only to find out the MAFIA did a gambit of a no kill and the other killing role/group did the NK.

So, with all due respect: Walk me through your process of thought for disliking this to be the case.

[Almost50]

Or maybe you're defending your partner texcat?

Don't break my heart Rasky. I wanna think y'all are town. Stuff like this doesn't work.

Dave and Almost are obvious town to me.

You're kinda townish, I get close to wanting to follow along with you and you attack me for sheeping bigger townreads rather than actually pushing your case.

~Titus

You can't come up with one reason why Texcat is scum? One at all?

That begs the question, why are you trying to start a new wagon on someone while avoiding talking about Anenien entirely?

I've been trying to work with you here, but you gotta give me something here.

Dave and acryon have been pretty townie lately and

I see where a strong case can be made on Almost

. I'm getting quite a few townreads. IF you want me to follow you, you'll need to convince me that either a) texcat is scum or b) you're townier.

~Titus

???????????????????????????????????
7 posts apart, both signed as ~Titus, and I haven't posted in between. What's the deal here??

[Almost50]

@Titus: OK. Sorry for the misunderstanding. It's 7 am here and I have yet to hit the hay.

[Almost50]

Just beating PK for the top of the page.

Also, going to bed now. See you in a few hours.

[Almost50]

*Sigh* I keep refreshing and refreshing in hopes to find something useful, but all I see is chit-chat or wall quotes with one-liner comments. You people don't seem to agree on anything at all. No 3 players have the same #1 lynch priority, and it looks like we're bargaining with each other, yet not even close to being successful at that.

It thus follows my reads haven't changed much, and I'm still not voting outside of KT, Kop, chilledtea or Mad King. One thing I've learned from a recent game though is to never post a full list of reads on everybody. It only makes it easier for scum to pick their targets from the universally town read pool.

[Almost50]

Fire Starter has requested replacement.

SIX replacements and we're not even close enough to the end of D1??? I'm wondering if I'll have a totally different set of players by D3.

[Almost50]

Ranger has replaced Fire Starter

Now there's an interesting unexpected turn of events.

WELCOME

[Almost50]

Are you part of the town or not? You have a part to play in convincing people and getting people to agree, which I haven't seen you really do, and then you expect to leave and have it just happen organically?

And you will rarely ever see me doing it. I do have a problem that I'm very well aware of, and that's me not being too convincing. I'm no leader and I'm not that good in making speeches. Only when something is too obvious AND someone perceptive enough is willing to pick up the transmission and fine tune to it will I ever be getting thing my way. Otherwise I end up talking to myself.

Now in this game there are some good players with fine tuned reception, and they're more capable of broadcasting their cases and leading the town. Unfortunately, they do not share my views for now. Yes, they did receive my town vibes well (and I very much appreciate that at least), but I'm still working under the assumption there are 2 factions and that is why we don't seem to agree on a lynch.

Now let me elaborate (since I haven't been posting much and you're obviously requesting that I do present my case):

If we had town + 3 scum (+SK or w/o one) we would have had 3-4 town players agreeing on someone (be that a real scum or a bad town). The scum would've pushed on the "bad town" already and we would've got a mislynch. If the town players were agreeing on a SCUM player, we would've had 2 obvious wagons much earlier.

The fact we have our votes "jumping around" and randomely distributed leads me to believe it's bc every town player is failing to draw a connection between at least 2 players for a scum team, with the scum themselves not agreeing on a proper mislynch to push for. So, 2 scum teams wil just 2 players each makes sense for them being of minor effect in pushing wagons, while many town players suspect 2 or 3 players for scum but can't find a true bond between them bc they're likely to be suspecting 1 town + 1 of each faction, so they all a pear to be not connected (which IS true).

I hoipe what I'm saying makes "some" sense here. It does to me.

The good news though is we've got Ranger here. I already think Burning Crystal is town, and I was leaning town on Ranger's spot, so together they can figure out Mad King (whom I'm still suspicious of) and then we go from there.

OF COURSE, there is always a chance I might be wrong, but then this will be found with some flips, so -for now- I have nothing more to add and no reason to change my view on what setup we might be playing.

[Almost50]

Probably. Scum!Titus would've seized the chance to make a push on town!me all the way. But that's not all. I get town vibes from their posts (both of them) and reactions to everything being said of/to them.

[Almost50]

Is there not a slight chance Burning Crystal has taken this stance, to get town credit?

Who would be your preferred lynch?

1- It's possible, but not very probable IMHO.
2- One of the 4 in my lynch pool. I'm currently on Mad King, but I'm really tempted to lynch KT now. The problem with KT is I don't know if I'm hating them "just" for scum or hating their posting style more which could be making them look even more scummy for me.

Also, I know myself that my early reads on the game are usually off especially when there have been lots of replacemnets, but this one mostly concerns the EE/chilled spot bc I'm scum reading them. It works FOR the Ranger slot, bc if I'm still reading them as town after the first replacement then they must've been really good bc I tend to suspect the replacement slots more.

Also, Fire Starter actually did provide a wall post of reads, and I don't see why scum!Fire would do that if they intended to sub-out. I mean, if you hated your slot and intended to leave, why would you go through the trouble of typing all this? I'd've suspected them a li'l bit more had they decided to stay.

[Almost50]

@Kuroi: Drunk again, my friend? Like, while I don't necessarily agree/disagree with some/all of the contents of KT's last post, I think it to be the only one he managed to use proper intelligent English to express his thoughts.

[Almost50]

And the WINNER of the BEST post of THE GAME is.... *Drum Roll* *Tadaaa*

I was not saying ME... I was saying MAD KING TEPES, not KAIN TEPES... you must read my post PROPERLY!!!!

I am SORRY. I have FAILED to read that post PROPERLY!!! I will try my BEST in the FUTURE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Almost50]

@Anen: Because Ranger is a great player and I love her to follow reads developing to deduce who is actually scum. Now don't get me wrong. The way she posts them does not necessarily mean the bottom 2,3 or 4 are scum, nor does it mean the top tier are indeed town. However, with her reads updated I can see who is heading up and who is moving down, and compare to my own reads. In short, I believe in Ranger's ability to hit on scum with like 70-80% precision. The only problem is if she herself was scum (I've never played with scum!Ranger, btw) but then she hopped into a slot I was town reading, so I'm happy for it.

[Almost50]

*Sigh*

KT has slightly improved in my eyes. His "I cannot be convinced that BURNING CRYSTAL is scum" makes me think he might be town himself. There's no way he'll be that sharp on BC to be town unless they're scum partners, and I just don't see BC to be scum myself.

Also that Rask wall post is forcing me to consider my read of that spot. Had it come from RC I would probably haven't thought much of it, simply bc I don't trust RC. However, coming from Rask -whom I've never played with before- makes me look at the content rather than speculate ○7bout the reason why they choose to phrase something one way and not the other.

Kuroi I'm not fully convinced about him being scum, but the 2 votes on him are coming from players I would be willing to trust in their reads. *Scratches Head*

I'll tell you what: UNVOTE: for now. I'm not ready to vote Kuroi yet. I could be on chilledtea but then I'd be the lonely vote there with not enough time to make a push on them. One thing is for sure though, I'm NOT voting BC today.

[Almost50]

VOTE: Kuroi

L-1

Please claim.

[Almost50]

And before anybody starts questioning my vote: If you take a look at the wagon on Kuroi you'd notice none of my initial suspects is on it, while everyone -except acryon- I'm strongly leaning town on them. The lack of votes from my suspects on Kuroi makes me feel comfortable getting behind it.

[Almost50]

@KT: Just in case you ARE clueless, the best play by the real JK (assuming Kuroi is not it) is NOT to out themselves now.

[Almost50]

Why?? I dont understand... if the real JK out themselves, then we can all lynch KUROI because he is telling a lie,, but now we have no choice but to believe KUROI TEPES....

BC if they out the,selves they get killed by night w/o doing anything useful for the town. If Kuroi is not the JK he will be found out soon enough. The real JK could -for example- jail him today. Then the cop (and tracker if we have one) can do their jobs well.

[Almost50]

UNVOTE:
Any bright ideas, anyone?

[Almost50]

OK.. here's what I think: I proposed 2 scum teams (scenario 12) and nobody seems interested. It's been long enough for someone to softly switch their stance. A TRACKER would know this to be true. The lack of support to my idea leads me to believe this isn't the case.

We're in either scenario 5 or scenario 10. I wouldn't expect a PGO to out themselves just to confirm the scenario, and especially so when my gambit only lasted for a very short period... OR there may nor be one in-play to begin with.

Now where do we go from here??

[Almost50]

That's immaterial to the lynch right now.

You may think so, but I think otherwise. You see, I've been trying to pair people up. Now I need to link 3 players together as a possible scum team to decide where my vote should go.

[Almost50]

I could get on options 2 or 3. I prefer 2 for today.

[Almost50]

OK.. VOTE: texcat

[Almost50]

My vote remains on Mad King, but my strongest scum read is still Almost50. You are correct, I have not pushed very much. Other than Almost, I am not very confident in my reads.

How is that even a town stance? "I'm willing to lynch someone I'm not confident is scum over the only one I'm confident is scum".

And, please tell me what your slot has added to the game? 3 players occupied this spot with less than 30 posts collectively and no confident reads, no propositions, no serious engagement with anyone. Please prove me wrong and point out something useful you did.

[Almost50]

Almost50 - You have some explaining to do.

Explaining??

[Almost50]

OH, you mean bc I didn't protect Kuroi. OK.

For one thing, I wasn't sure enough he was a Jailer, and he was suspected by both Mas King & Ranger (check their reads). For another thing; I had someone else to protect as they would produce a more solid result. I protected davesaz.

[Almost50]

You thought dave was most likely to get NK'd?

Yes. He soft-claimed a PR, and I read him as town with more certainty, and now I KNOW he is town regardless of being a PR or not.

[Almost50]

Scum Dave team role blocks almost creates a false positive. That would be setups 5 and 12.

Wait a minute! Isn't my ability a

passive

one? If so, then it cannot be RB'd by default.

[Almost50]

2 kills =/= 2 teams. There's still the possibility of a mafia + Sk (scenario 10). The other kills could've been blocked in scenario 12 or stopped by the JK in all 3 scenarios. There's also a chance the SK did a no NK gambit. I say we consider all possibilities, even if we do lean towards favouring one scenario over the others.

[Almost50]

@Anen: She's not alone, tbh. Anyone who still thinks I'm anything less than conf!town by now is a bad player who should not be followed. Acron-Almost is ridiculous. Why am I confirming davesaz then? Why didn't we just kill him and claim I protected the claimed PR? I claimed Weak BG, and nobody countered. Not the role and not the scenario. Not a single detail/occurrence in the game suggests or even hints I'm lying. And you know why? Because I AM a Weak BodyGuard and I DID target davesaz last night. Now all we need to do is wait to see if he's got any results to share. This is why I'm not voting until dave shows up.

[Almost50]

and also my daughter's birthday.

Well, Happy Birthday to her.

Now back to scum hunting I guess this post means dave's got nothing to share in terms of investigation results, so I guess I'd be voting off the top of my head.

[Almost50]

If there's scum on here, it's Almost50.

This is to make me eat my shoes, right??

OK, your follow up read list would be much appreciated still.

#Anen: I take it back.

[Almost50]

Well, I guess it's going to happen again if you (and your strongest reads) don't start making clear cases. If there's anything I could read through your lists it's that Kop dropped a notch, so I'm inclined to vote for them right now (bc I did have an initial scum lean on them being in the same team with KT). I could also go for chilled but they're in your top tier still, so I'm giving them one more day to show their "towniness".

VOTE: Kop

[Almost50]

Btw, I could've also gone for KT except they're being voted by chilled themselves. I need REASONS to believe someone is town/scum, and if I don't get any then I most certainly will follow my own gut/reasoning.

[Almost50]

@mod: I'm voting for myself???!!!!!!!!!

Dont have to yell . . .

[Almost50]

Dont have to yell . . .

Not yelling. I only bolded bc it's the way to catch your attention, but I DID NOT CAPITALIZE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Almost50]

OMG! This thread is quieter than outer space. Are we still playing?

[Almost50]

Straight up; here's what I think: If we don't talk; we're not going to get any new info. If we're not going to get new info, we're lynching blindly. If we're lynching blindly, we might as well get done and over with. There's absolutely no sense in procrastinating to vote in hopes one would catch up later when there's nothing to catch up with in the first place. So, I suggest we either talk or everyone pulls out a random number and votes accordingly.

[Almost50]

I'm starting to feel better about chilled. TBH, if I had a day vig shot I'd be shooting KT right now to get it over with. The game isn't big enough (i.e. not a Large) for some troll account to survive and keep distracting us.

My vote stays at Kop, but -if needs be- I could move it to KT.

[Almost50]

@Ranger: Are you scum yourself by any chance? Are you afraid I would protect the cop from a NK before they actually get a read on you/your team members? I mean, that explains a couple of things. You hinting I'm buddying you when you KNOW I idolize your town play for one. Your persistence I'm scum when I have little doubt in your ability to read me correct, not to mention your weird reads which go against most what everybody else is thinking. hmmmm... *Scratches Chin Nervously*

Guys, I've never played with Scum!Ranger, so I wouldn't know for sure, but I'm sensing something is off with her persistence on lynching an unCC'd BG. If we're in scenario 5 she's probably the follower, and she verified my claim to be true so she can't wait to get rid of me bc her team prefers not to waste a NK on me.

Am I close, Ranger??

[Almost50]

@Ranger: I already explained why I picked dave over Kuroi. dave was a much stronger town read for me + he did hint he was a pr himself. To me he was either the Cop or a Tracker (I did think we were in setup 12, if you care to reread). Either a Cop or a Tracker would provide more reliable investigation results than a Jailkeeper (whom I wasn't even all that confident they were a JK to begin with).

As for YOU, well.. you never crumbed or hinted anything. Why would scum shot at you on N1 anyway?

As for assuming you read me well, I guess I took into account the "development process". You were far off in our first game together, improved in the next one, and the last one you started off strong enough it indeed tilted the scales in our favour. Had you not have my back there; Titus would've probably had her way getting me lynched instead of her. The game could've gone on a very different route from there on. I assumed (possibly prematurely now at hind sight) that you had indeed developed a way of reading me much more accurately. I apologize for this one minor bad assumption.

[Almost50]

And FTR, it is evident in our very first game I do not do "as expected" from me when I have a PR. For example, I was supposed to protect FA and Persy (for the rest of you: I was a double down bus driver). What I did was to keep them both in their respective slots, thinking they will be most safe there bc scum would've expected me to move them elsewhere.

So, EVEN IF (hypothetically) I bought the JK claim I would have still not protected them bc I would've most probably thought "oh, but scum WOULD expect me to do that, so they're going to shoot elsewhere anyway".

[Almost50]

@KT: Add me to you list, please.

VOTE: KT

[Almost50]

Why not?

[Almost50]

So, what are the reasons behind you suspecting chilled then?

[Almost50]

I heard somewhere KT was no newb, but rather a troll account. The one who said this seemed to know whom it was an alt of. Just saying.

[Almost50]

They're also being preemptively rejected by many for future games queue.

[Almost50]

Are you allowed to and/or willing to post any details about this?

No.

[Almost50]

@BC: How are the odds 1/12?? I'm not following.

[Almost50]

The individual chances for town, 3p, and scum based kill sources are:
2nd Scum Team: 1/3
3P Serial Killer: 1/3
Town Based Vigilante: 1/6
Town based undirected Kills (Paranoid Gun Owner): 1/6
No extra kill sources: 1/12

^^ From the wiki

Oh wow Kop jumps on. Not a big shock. Nice reaction test Tea.

OH, LOL... so you didn't factor in my role, which limits us to just 3 possible scenarios. One of them does have a PGO, but then they need to be targeted to activate. The other two would/should have 2 scum kills.

[Almost50]

Yeah, what chilled said. A PGO doesn't count if you don't have a night action, and if you do then you should know for certain if you had been jailed or roleblocked.

Also, I don't think a PGO would still stay silent for this long. I mean, if it was me I would have made sure I don't kill a PR by mistake, even if it meant I got lynched before LyLo, so I'm assuming there's not a PGO.

So, it's indeed very likely that there has been a blocked 2nd NK (RB'd of by JK or a no kill gambit.. doesn't matter), but it's how you explained it that doesn't look too well for you.

[Almost50]

Thankfully we still have 7 days to work things out.

You think?? Cuz all I see is we're moving in circles and nothing is new. I'll probably do a reread of the whole thread l○7ter today with a totally new perspective in mind (I'm going to try something I've never done before) to see if I could come up with something different myself.

[Almost50]

Frankly I can't see Anen as scum. I even tried to force it going through older posts, but somewhere down the road there's always something that makes it very unlikely.

I think lynching KT will help clear the view much better. For one thing, he's being suspected by many (including myself) but not as many are committed to voting him, thus he remains a distraction.

For another thing: He started off being very active, but now he hardly posts. So much for "I'M AGGRESSIVE".

Oh, and you -sir- ARE a troll. You posted normally for a few pages until it hit you to type in all caps, and when people started talking about it you continued to do it as if you were intentionally trying to annoy & distract us. Then you went from extremely talkative to extremely silent, and when you post you hardly tell us anything of substance. Being "in it" doesn't make for a clear view, but rereading the thread it becomes apparent you're just trolling, and I think it's a scum tactic to keep the town going in circles.

Your last post (the HELOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!! one) is so silly it really makes me want to replace out.

[Almost50]

SLIGHTLY SCUMMY: Almost50
SCUMMY: Xtoxm, chilledtea, Burning Crystal

Exactly my point. Anyone who points a finger at KT becomes a scum read for him. Notice what I said to him when I decided to vote him, and how he responded back then.

[Almost50]

ZZZZZ ....

[Almost50]

dodge

Chevrolet

[Almost50]

I will -once again-repeat this: The ideal lynch is KT. It will remove much confusion and provide some pointer at the very least, but I also genuinely think it will remove one scum off the game.

[Almost50]

You don't think Burning Crystal is scum?

Nope. I think they're leaning town. KT is my top scum read actually. I think all his posts are meant to distract and shed doubts.

[Almost50]

Please defend them then. Why would they give so much importance to setup and why would they think regarding kuroi protecting them, and two scum teams especially to the precision of the contents of both the scum team?

Except for the Kuroi protecting them bit; I'm guilty as they're charged. In fact, regardless of my alignment or role I'm noted to be inclined to setup spec myself. I also was the first person to bring up multi ball early into D1, and I asked them to reread the thread with the assumption of 4 specific players forming 2 specific teams and even specified which would've been Mafia & which is WWs according to my thoughts back then.

They say they are vanilla town as well. Considering that, unlike you, they should have zero information regarding setups. Instead they are rolling in setup guesswork. I just can't see vanilla giving a damn about setup, unless it actually mattered.

This (and the bit about being protected) I can't pinpoint the reason for, but it could be anything from reading between the lines to pure speculation. Sometimes people say things that are plain and clear that I somehow seem to miss for the longest time, while others are perceptive. So, MAYBE someone crumbed and BC got the message? OR maybe they're just claiming VT so as not to get NK'd? Or maybe they just had a gut feeling that if X was scum then they will be killing them? I don't know for sure, but I do think their overall performance is comming from a town mindset rather than a manipulating scum.

[Almost50]

We have different scenarios of action here to unfold some clues. Like, I could protect BC tonight. Or maybe I can protect Anen if that's more convenient. What I know is I'm not going to protect KT for instance, bc -even IF they're town; which I very much doubt- they're not benefiting the town much. I would rather protect someone who can help the town win rather than be a useless troll all over.

P.S. I'm not announcing my night target beforehand. You'll just have to guess whom I was on if I get NK'd. If I make it through the night though you might get yourself another confirmed townie.

[Almost50]

No offense, but what is the point of this post?

I'm saying I'm town reading BC AND Anen and do not wish for either to be lynched today. I could check on either by night to verify they're town. Need I phrase that any clearer?

Although I know you're not going to announce your target (nor do I want you to reply to this beyond acknowledged), I think checking me is the best for the town.

Well, acknowledged. I still haven't decided which of you two I will be protecting/investigating tonight though.

And if you want me to be on the lynching wagon, you need to come up with someone else. I'm not lynching Anen today.

[Almost50]

That's kind of a big ask for the town to not pursue the two biggest wagons for the sake of a possible investigation by you if and only if you even live, which seems unlikely.

Fine. Then you go ahead and lynch either of them w/o me. I can't stop you, but I'm not voting people from near the top of my list. I mean, I have SIX other players I could go for before I vote BC, and Anen is even higher than them on my list.

[Almost50]

I'm saying I'm town reading BC AND Anen and do not wish for either to be lynched today.

Any particular reason you're town reading Aneninen?

As I said, I tried to read the thread from the beginning under the assumption Anen was scum. It didn't fit and I couldn't bring myself to buy it no matter how hard I tried to force it. Anen just can't be a member of any scum team.

[Almost50]

Why? This goes for both of the questions.

Let's forget about "gut feelings" for a minute, ok?

WHY would scum!BC point out a missing second kill? Why not keep it under wraps until N2 when we get surprised by the "fact" we have two killers not just one?

Also it does add up. I mean if she was scum she probably WOULD have speculated/anticipated she was going to be jailed, so why would she send a kill herself?

The answer to the second question is: She's the SK, which brings us back to the first question: WHY out herself to town? Hell, why make herself so obvious to the SCUM TEAM??

P.S. I keep referring to the BC slot in singular form. I hope that doesn't bother them.

Now as for KT: He didn't st○7rt using caps until later into the game. When he did it started to show many of us were getting annoyed with it (and the fact he didn't know how to quote properly). Eversince he decided it was best to do just that.

Also everything he posts is like .. hollow.. shallow.. empty.. I don't know how to describe it exactly, but it adds absolutely nothing to the game. If I were to post like that I wouldn't last for an hour, so why give him a pass for it is really bugging me.

Overall, "something" is not right with KT. Was it the distancing with EE early into the game? Was the buddying attempt with BC? Was it the fact he called them Titus rather than Burning or BC? Is it the fact he claimed to be an aggressive player and has yet to show any sort of objective aggressiveness? Is it bc he automatically scum reads anyone who scum reads him? Is it EVRYTHING I said and some more?? I simply don't feel good about this slot.

Also, my top scum reads are KT, followed by both Kop & chilled. KT is voting chilled, and chilled is on Kop, while KT is being voted by xtoxm whom I'm reading as town. If all 3 suspects were at the same level I would've still voted the one being voted by a town read of mine rather than either of the two currently being voted by suspects of mine. However, this isn't even the case as KT IS my top scum read, so that's why I'm being a little stubborn there. I could go for Kop as a compromise if KT is a no-no kind of thing, but someone has to come up with some new invention for me to vote outside of those 3 today.

[Almost50]

By the way, Kuroi scumread Almost50 too. He could have targeted him as well. Or maybe Davesaz (so as to block the Nightkill at the other end).

I'm sorry but neither is very likely. If someone crumbs a PR and you're the JK then they're either the Cop (any of the 12 scenarios, given Kuroi didn't believe me), The Tracker, a BP, a Vig or a PGO. The latter would probably kill you. The Vig should be given the chance to shoot someone. The BP doesn't get protected bc they won't die on N1 anyway. Both the Cop & Tracker need to produce results so you don't actively block them. In short, it would've sucked if he blocked dave to protect him.

As for me, I'm either a WBG or I'm scum. In the event I'm the WBG you don't block me either. Even if you don't buy it, you opt to protect someone you think is town. You don't even protect someone you're not sure about bc you would want the Cop to be able to investigate them.

In all cases; Kuroi targeting me/dave is possible but highly improbable.

[Almost50]

I am always ok with KT lynch. I am not sure about Anen, but he has given me strong town vibes during day 1. Just difficult to see him being scum.
I would be happiest with kop lynch.

So basically, you, xtoxm & myself agree it should either be KT or Kop (or -considering PK is the mod- we can always try to lynch Kuroi)

<<< @pisskop

I don't get it. I wish to make it clear that my play in any one game does not reflect my opinion of any player. Usually its nothing personal

[Almost50]

I don't get it. I wish to make it clear that my play in any one game does not reflect my opinion of any player. Usually its nothing personal

I seem to remember you saying something about you once trying to lynch a dead player in LyLo. If I got mixed up, then I'm sorry.

[Almost50]

The inconsistencies shown by a few, unbelievable.

Are you talking about Lallana? Sturridge?? Or the whole bunch of them??

Seriously though, why don't you try a bit harder to clear your name and deter the -hypothetical- wagon on you?

[Almost50]

@Ranger: xtoxm IS on Kop. If you check the VC you'd see his name appears twice. PK forgot to delete the previous one on KT, but he did count the new one in 1357.

[Almost50]

Yes, I am. Although I still favour the KT lynch, but I think they may get replaced eventually.

VOTE: Kop

[Almost50]

Guys, I'm not feeling too confident in Kop's lynch. He doesn't strike me as anything scum would do in this situation. He's neither desperately defensive nor is he trying to counter or start another wagon. He's acting defeated distributing curses and creating WIFOM.

I'm sorry, but I'm much more comfortable with a KT lynch.

VOTE: KT

[Almost50]

You want a lynch? Let's lynch KT. If he's not scum you can lynch me next. I'm not lynching "just to get a lynch", and I'm not feeling scum in Kop's most recent posts.

[Almost50]

Even if I do come back to the Kop Wagon there seems to be a lack of interest from others. Anen? dave?? BC??? acryon????

OK, nvm. But you do realize if Kop flips town it will be you for the auto-lynch. Right, chilled?? You started this wagon just as you were the one behind the texcat wagon. And BOTH counter wagons to ones on BC.

Alright then..

VOTE: Kop

[Almost50]

Sorry guys, but here's what I see: The voting patterns confirm a link between chilled & KT. I'm not sure who might be a 3rd member of that team (if we assume a 3-scum team with or w/o SK). BC could be the third one if we're in scenario 5 (they KNOW there's no 2nd kill, so they're just WIFOMing).

If this is the case they're going to kill davesaz tonight (I confirmed him not to be the PGO).

HOWEVER, it could still be someone else, like acryon for instance.

If we DO have an SK though, then BC could not be the 3rd member of that team, and she could not be the SK either (for reasons mentioned in 1321)

I'm at a complete loss if we assume scenario 12 (2 Mafia + 2WWs)

[Almost50]

The "links" I'm talking about is they park their votes on eachother for distancing, but once either gets voted by one or two other players they jump off the wagon. It started up e○7rly in the game with EE & KT voting eachother.

[Almost50]

If Kop flips town I won't be protecting anyone. This way if I die you know who killed me. If -by some chance- Kop is scum though, then I'm an idiot and we move on.

[Almost50]

Ask your scum partner

[Almost50]

ARE YOU DOING THIS FOR TOWN CRED?????

CUZ IT'S NOT WORKING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Almost50]

BUT I DON'T BELIEVE YOU!!!!! LIKE, DO YOU THINK SCUM WILL COME OUT AND ADMIT IT??????

[Almost50]

But what do we get from me dead while announcing I was on you?? (Except WIFOM?

[Almost50]

I'm not announcing wjhom I'll be protecting, so they will have to shoot me directly if they want me dead.

[Almost50]

First, you need to switch to the hydra account, please. I'm already confused by the same players being with me in other games.

OK.. so I should be targeting MAD KING tonight (if Kop flips town). RC hasn't bussed anyone yet, so he might as well be town.

[Almost50]

Actually, scratch that. If they have a RB, then they'll use it on me and kill you still. Then I'd be the mislynch of D3. Let's play it another way. Let's lynch chilled or KT today. These two are basically conf!scum in my book.

[Almost50]

^Scum avoiding the bus.

Ranger, STOP IT already. You got me suspecting you for your bad reads this game. Yes, you were right about Texcat, but you had Kuroi at the very bottom of the list. Open up your eyes and read what I'm typing. Both chilled and KT are scum together, and it's pretty obvious too. We need to lynch one of them to -probably- know what setup we're in and connect the dots. Kop is NOT scum. I had suspected him since the very start bc of skimming bad, but his recent reactions tell me that he's town whose heart is just not in it.

OK.. how's this: To end it all.. LYNCH ME instead of KOP. Seriously. I mean, I'm as a bad of a distraction to you as KT is to me, so either we lynch HIM to prove my true colours or lynch ME to get you to see the situation more properly.

[Almost50]

Mate, I'm not making anything. My vote is still on Kop. However, I'm not confident in this lynch and I'm voicing it out.

The thing is Ranger is scum reading me in every game I play with her, and in every game I played with her I flipped town. I don't know what it is that makes her think I'm scummy here either. Like, you and FA can easily read me right from the start. Ranger starts with the assumption I must be scum and attacks me for every move I make, whether it be a deliberate trick, an honest mistake, or even a sincere town play.

WHY do I have to have this in every game. The "last time" you're referring to I had Xf riding my butt all through the game until the night I got NK'd. THANK GOD the werewolves NK'd JJD early into the game or I would have had to endure twice as much suffering.

Mate, my play isn't all that elaborate or complicated yet. I'm still easy enough to read, I think. That's unless I'm much better than I'm taking myself for. *Sigh*

Anyway; somebody hammer Kop and let's see how he flips. We can do a quick reevaluation of the situation with the confirmed flip. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe he IS scum, and -maybe- he will flip a PR that will let us know what setup we're playing, so let's get it done with.

[Almost50]

OK.. since I AM going to die tonight, I would like to mention something Ranger is NOT doing in this game: Frequently updated read lists.

I think she herself hinted once (in another game) that one of her scum tells is the lack of something she does as town. So, my final scum team prediction is Ranger, chilled & KT. (IF Kop flips town).

I'll let you guess whom I'd be protecting tonight.