Open 627: Mexican Standoff [endgame]

[pisskop]

Votecount 2.01

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acryon

- (2) aneninen, Burning Crystal

kaintepes

- (1) chilledtea

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Not Voting

- Acryon, Almost50, xtoxm, kop, kaintepes, davesaz, Ranger, Mad King Ashnard

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With 11 Alive it takes 6 to Lynch!
Day 02 Deadline is (expired on 2016-03-21 11:30:00).

[Kop]

How does 93 goad PRs?

It does not goad PR's into blatantly outing themselves, but it needlessly and uselessly discusses the setup which could lead PRs, especially inexperienced ones, to mention things that might make it easier to get who they are. The lines literally have no positive function, while there is chance for negatives.

But if Anen has the influence, he could easily direct PR's to Eagle based on his advice, by them just listening to it without discussing it not to out themselves, but if he knows there is a chance they are going to Eagle, it keeps them from potential team mates?

How do you read the game at present?

Right now, we are looking at one scum team. That is what we should be basing our attention on.

We won't ever know who Kuroi jail kept, I will ISO his posts to see who he suspected the most, as that is possibly the likely chance of him jail-keeping. But that isn't definitive evidence if he is the person jailed.

Or even a secondary scum team.

I'm suspecting Anen right now, so I'd like to talk to him about his read on Acryon, he's had his vote on him pretty much up till the lynch, and now back on him again.

[Kop]

New Read List

Town: Kop
Lean Town: Aneninen, Xtoxm, Davesaz, KainTepes, Acryon
Null: Texcat, Chilledtea, Mad King Ashnard
Lean Scum: Firestarter
Scum: Burning Crystal, Almost50

That was his last list of his reads.

So in all likelihood, he's probably jail kept one of is scum reads; Burning Crystal, Almost50.

Burning Crystal wagon was around till last day before the lynch was met before it stalled. Why it stalled, there are probably many explanations.

1). Scum were on it, so couldn't hammer it home.
2). Town couldn't reach a basis of why it should happen
3). Majority couldn't agree on a base a case on

Doesn't say BC is entirely town or scum based on that.

It's likely true, but not 100% true.

Scum Dave team role blocks almost creates a false positive. That would be setups 5 and 12. I think Dave is obvtown but Almost town doesn't confirm Dave town.

This could lend a hand to the above case, with Almost50 being in the scum pile for Kuroi. So on that basis of Kuroi possibly jail-keeping Almost50, that would act as a roleblock to 50's role.

[Aneninen]

There's a good question.
If we assume two scum teams, where's the other Nightkill?

[acryon]

There's a good question.
If we assume two scum teams, where's the other Nightkill?

And why would we assume two scumteams? This seems like a dangerous road to go down with no reason to believe in WW's at this point.

[Burning Crystal]

@Kop, you scum? A jailer suspicious of Almost50 still would likely not jail him. A weak bodyguard is a self resolving problem. Either Almost outs who he jailed every night and is role blocked constantly or he gives information by his survival.

@Aneninen, why are you wanting to assume two scumteams?

[Almost50]

2 kills =/= 2 teams. There's still the possibility of a mafia + Sk (scenario 10). The other kills could've been blocked in scenario 12 or stopped by the JK in all 3 scenarios. There's also a chance the SK did a no NK gambit. I say we consider all possibilities, even if we do lean towards favouring one scenario over the others.

[acryon]

@Kop, you scum? A jailer suspicious of Almost50 still would likely not jail him. A weak bodyguard is a self resolving problem. Either Almost outs who he jailed every night and is role blocked constantly or he gives information by his survival.

@Aneninen, why are you wanting to assume two scumteams?

This is the kind of post that pings me hard with Anen. No reason to assume two scum-teams. The only real motivation for doing so would be as A) Mafia trying to lead town down a generally bad path or B) Mafia/WW trying to lead town to the other faction.

VOTE: Aneninen

[acryon]

2 kills =/= 2 teams. There's still the possibility of a mafia + Sk (scenario 10). The other kills could've been blocked in scenario 12 or stopped by the JK in all 3 scenarios. There's also a chance the SK did a no NK gambit. I say we consider all possibilities, even if we do lean towards favouring one scenario over the others.

Considering any of these is stupid. There is no reason to overthink things so much. Let's just play it straight.

[Burning Crystal]

VOTE: Aninen

Glad to see the similar viewpoint. Also makes me wonder why Aninen's wagon didn't take off yesterday though.

[Kop]

@Kop, you scum? A jailer suspicious of Almost50 still would likely not jail him. A weak bodyguard is a self resolving problem. Either Almost outs who he jailed every night and is role blocked constantly or he gives information by his survival.

@Aneninen, why are you wanting to assume two scumteams?

No, but if he died, surely we would be able to figure out, a possibility of where Almost went. By his reads throughout the game.

(Unrelated to this game - But I remember playing in a blitz game where the cop didn't out himself, but his reads were confirmation when he eventually died, is where he went.)

VOTE: Aneninen

[Kop]

I'm happy for this wagon to take off. His posts day one weren't exactly up to par with what I've seen from him, just strikes more like filler posts than anything else, calling most cases pidgeon poop, and his first post to 2nd day is strikingly off too. And not to mention his goading, trying to influence town into thinking something different to what's out there.

[acryon]

Also makes me wonder why Aninen's wagon didn't take off yesterday though.

I think this has to do with that ability to make cases that appear town that I mentioned.

[Aneninen]

Other players assumed two teams Yesterday.
Still from mobile.

[Aneninen]

I can see there goes the quickwagon.
Examine that Tomorrow.
I bet I get dead by the time I get home.

[Burning Crystal]

I can see there goes the quickwagon.
Examine that Tomorrow.
I bet I get dead by the time I get home.

Eww..others did it so it's ok for me? No. No one assumed it for the most part although there was a tinkle of WW hunting that was stopped.

Your scumread today and someone you heavily pushed yesterday are at the front of your wagon, and yet you're bitching about a quickhammer? Looks like your scumreads aren't all that real.

~Titus (all posts today have been me)

[Aneninen]

I posted that I'm from mobile.
Whenever I get quicklynxhed I'm town and everyone misses examine my wagon later. THAT lattet part is my problem.

[Burning Crystal]

You expect the Queen of VCA not to analyze wagons?

That's the story you're going with?

And if I die, no one else would do it?

~Titus

[Aneninen]

I posted that I'm from mobile.
Whenever I get quicklynxhed I'm town and everyone misses examine my wagon later. THAT lattet part is my problem.

You expect the Queen of VCA not to analyze wagons?
That's the story you're going with?
And if I die, no one else would do it?

~Titus

And that's what I think was a scumslip.
It sounds as if you know that I'll flip town.

Also, others were speculating about a possible other scumteam (I included the SK too by talking about that). About the time when Almost claimed.
So, calling me scum because of that is WTF,

especially

because I posted that I was from mobile.

And I can see a clear scum motivation for removing me. I'm a slow player; the more time I spend in the game the surer my reads are.

My scumread on Acryon is not new.
The one on BurningCrystal has just born, see above.
Almost may be town, but I wouldn't rule out an Acryon/Almost team. Actually, Acryon was talking a lot about Almost, but... checking the VCs... what can we see? Also, check the BurningCrystal wagon. And check their positions...
I don't know what to think about Kop, but I suppose he's town, based upon his Day1.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BurningCrystal
Add the fact that TexCat may have been a counter to another wagon.

[Burning Crystal]

Wow, when I highlight your narrative sucks and has no plausibility, you vote me crying "scumslip" right.

Mobile post doesn't excuse pursuing absolute bullshit. You're trying to use mobile post as a defense to having scummy thoughts and pushing narrative to save your own bacon.

Mobile post maybe excuses typos.

~Titus

[Aneninen]

Wow, when I highlight your narrative sucks and has no plausibility, you vote me crying "scumslip" right.

Mobile post doesn't excuse pursuing absolute bullshit. You're trying to use mobile post as a defense to having scummy thoughts and pushing narrative to save your own bacon.

Mobile post maybe excuses typos.

~Titus

Discrediting 101.

Now I'm sure that you've scumslipped!

[Almost50]

@Anen: She's not alone, tbh. Anyone who still thinks I'm anything less than conf!town by now is a bad player who should not be followed. Acron-Almost is ridiculous. Why am I confirming davesaz then? Why didn't we just kill him and claim I protected the claimed PR? I claimed Weak BG, and nobody countered. Not the role and not the scenario. Not a single detail/occurrence in the game suggests or even hints I'm lying. And you know why? Because I AM a Weak BodyGuard and I DID target davesaz last night. Now all we need to do is wait to see if he's got any results to share. This is why I'm not voting until dave shows up.

[Mad King Ashnard]

VOTE: Burning Crystal

[acryon]

VOTE: Burning Crystal

What's up Mad King?

[acryon]

Also FWIW the back and forth between Anen and BC here looks like SvS. I'm still far more certain on Anen-scum and that needs to be pursued first 100%, but I think it's fairly likely both are.