Open 624 Fire and Ice - Fire Mafia Wins

[Aristophanes]

In fact,
VOTE: NoLynch

I'll still do my analysis stuff, but Worst Case we have a kingmaker tomorrow, best case we win, Possible to get a 2v1 Lylo tomorrow.

@Both Scum,
It is in your best interest to shoot your biggest scumreads.
If you eliminate them, but you remain, you can potentially win the Lylo scenario.
If you shoot a townread, and it becomes a kingmaker scenario, I implore the last town to vote the scum that did not do so. Do not reward them for it.

Ninja'd
I am...

[Shinobi]

He already commented on it.

He says "you must have reads" I have expressed reads. Then he wonders why I don't vote on them? When I clearly expressed that I said we should no lynch. What part of No lynch goes with voting players?

Right.

[Aristophanes]

If you really want a no lynch then vote no lynch.
But I've already said that a no lynch is a bad idea for town.

It gives us the best odds.

[Firebringer]

VOTE: No Lynch
Like I said several times. Aristo gets it, Shinobi gets it.
SS, might be scum just because he wants to lynch so bad.

[texcat]

Day 4, Vountcount 4

No Lynch (2):

Aristophanes, Firebringer

Viva La Gloria (1):

Something_Smart

Something_Smart (1):

Viva La Gloria

Aristophanes (1):

Shinobi

Not Voting (0):

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch or to no lynch.

Deadline

: Monday, March 14, 2016 9:00 am (Texas time)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2016-03-14 09:00:00)

[Firebringer]

For some reason I didn't think a vote skip did anything.
Last open I finished I think the host put in a rule where you explicitly couldn't do it.

[Something_Smart]

This game isn't about odds, it's about scumhunting. We should be lynching Viva today.

The thing about no lynch that troubles me is that we have no control over who lives to the final 3. I am confident that the scum are Viva and probably Firebringer (and maybe Aristo), but that doesn't mean that the scum will agree with my reads enough to shoot correctly.

The thing that pings me about the case for no lynching is that if two town get shot then town loses. So to be confident in a no lynch, you have to be confident that at least one scum will shoot your scumreads, and only scum can be sure of that.

@Firebringer, Aristo, Shinobi: what is your read on Viva? Could you give some quotes or reasons to explain it?

[Aristophanes]

But if we mislynch today, we either get 2 scum living tomorrow to tie it, a scum and a town (most likely) so that scum wins, or two town (very unlikely). We don't have the power to lynch the second scum if we do that, and are putting our fate in the hands of scum once again. And it would be in Scum's best interest to shoot a towny slot that way because they can win in a tie or alone that way.

I'll go look at Viva for you.

[Aristophanes]

Alright, so looking at Viva.

I think D2 in the VCA is the most telling. He was the first to vote SO. Unless he was bussing right out of the gates, this seems very unlikely as a scum partnering. Unlikely Ice Mafia.
His vote is directly followed by SW's vote. I have seen very few scum who are okay with either voting right after their partners, or who are content to sit in that position for the whole day phase. This vote positioning I think tells us Viva is not Fire Mafia.
This means the Cobalting wagon D1 was all town, which really sucks. But wagons on town can be all town. Not unheard of.

Now, let's look at the votes he's cast.
I didn't notice in the VCs, because of course they're not shown, but twice in D1 Viva votes Masq, then switches in the next post onto someone else.

Spoiler: immediate vote switches

Yeah, Masquerade's response was pretty awful.
But I'm still pretty damn sure Shinobi is scum.
You guys can be different scumteams mmk?

VOTE: Masquerade

Nah fk it protest vote.
VOTE: Shinobi
This is still scum.

VOTE: Masquerade

Shinobi will be useful regardless of alignment I feel, and is highly likely to be crosskilled if he's scum.
I'd be seriously mad if he is left alive to LyLo but I still like this wagon and am good following it.

Actually I'm more interested in this I think.

VOTE: Cobalting

Actually, these also qualify. Weird vote switches from this slot.

VOTE: Supreme Overlord

Currently the worst vote on me, but further response from the other voters may change this.

VOTE: Cobalting

Ranger's reads list still needs to be explained actually.
I don't trust the votes on me at all though, given that little has been said by anyone besides SS to explain a vote on me and his case is awful.
If you're scumreading me, explain why.

He even tried pushing SO again at the end of D1, but when ignored and Shadow was pretty much done, he backed off. I can saw pretty confidently he's not Ice.

If anything, he could be Fire with SW, as he only mentions them like twice while she was alive, once to say "not interested" in a wagon, and once to call Ika/SW "weird" without pursuing it. All mentions afterwards seem to be tying her to Aero/FB, which is maybe distancing himself from the possibility of being a partner? Though I somewhat doubt that.

Overall, the interactions tell me Not Scum.
So I will not vote there, SS.

[Something_Smart]

V/LA through Sunday

Sorry! I'll be back in time for deadline, I promise.

[Shinobi]

Is RC actually planning to play this game any time soon or what?

[Shinobi]

This game isn't about odds, it's about scumhunting. We should be lynching Viva today.

The thing about no lynch that troubles me is that we have no control over who lives to the final 3. I am confident that the scum are Viva and probably Firebringer (and maybe Aristo), but that doesn't mean that the scum will agree with my reads enough to shoot correctly.

The thing that pings me about the case for no lynching is that if two town get shot then town loses. So to be confident in a no lynch, you have to be confident that at least one scum will shoot your scumreads, and only scum can be sure of that.

@Firebringer, Aristo, Shinobi: what is your read on Viva? Could you give some quotes or reasons to explain it?

I had him as town before but it was mostly because of his passion/tone in his earlier posting. I was able to follow a bunch of his earlier reads lists and it felt like he was trying to make things work as best he could.

I'm relatively annoyed with the fact that he dropped off the face of the earth because his play today has been horrid, but I can say that about almost everyone so I'm not even sure how much that's worth.

[Firebringer]

I told you guys, no lynch.
Vote it and lets see what happens.

[Shinobi]

Has RC been prodded?

[texcat]

Not yet, but prodding Viva now.

[Viva La Gloria]

no yo'ure not

[Viva La Gloria]

Tonight. Promise.

[Firebringer]

No, vote No Lynch or you are claiming scum.

[Viva La Gloria]

I'd NL if I thought scum would shoot properly. I expect both scum to shoot town.

[Aristophanes]

I'd NL if I thought scum would shoot properly. I expect both scum to shoot town.

Oh yee of little faith!

[Viva La Gloria]

Is that a scumclaim?

[Aristophanes]

Is that a scumclaim?

Nah, but I'm sure at least one scum can take the tight shot.

[Aristophanes]

The right shot**

[Viva La Gloria]

Ugh.

I'll hammer a NL if it comes to it with my reads list.

[Shinobi]

Sure you will.